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Archimedes Owl
12-13-2007, 06:43 AM
Well, Denver is just slightly above average according to football outsiders DVOA ratings right now.

Let's break it down a bit further:

Pass Offense:

Denver is generally above average in pass offense ranking 7th in DVOA with 21.6% which is pretty good. This takes into account Cutler's interceptions. And it is in line with conventional statistics like yards per attempt in which he ranks seventh. Or passer rating in which he ranks 9th.

Marshall has shown that he can be a number one quality reciever. And Stokely has shown that he's able to be a quality number two reciever. With Walker in the lineup, Denver has plenty of wide reciever options. This allows them to line up in multiple reciever sets easily, but that's not all. Denver's tight ends are better than stats would suggest. Daniel Graham ranks 6th in the league in DVOA catching a very good catch percentage (72%). Tony Scheffler ranks 10th in DVOA with an even better catch percentage (80%).

They don't look so terrific individually because the pass offense does so many different things, but they provide great flexibility. Both can catch and we can switch from two tight ends to three wide recievers quickly by splitting one wide.

Denver ranks 7th in lowest sack percentage which is pretty good.


Rushing Offense:

Denver's rushing offense is merely average according to DVOA ratings, Denver ranks 13th. The good thing is that Denver ranks well in certain parts of the line including 6th around each the left and right ends in yards per carry and 8th between left tackle and guard.

Denver ranks poorly through the center/guard slots at 29 and 21st against the right tackle guard slot. Both are poor, but they point to one thing and that's that Denver has a very talented offense with a couple of holes. Denver improved in both weak slots in their last game, so their is hope for Myers to improve as he gets experience, but Kuper on the right side looks like an improvement as Ben Hamilton and Nalen return.

At least for next year, Denver could have a dominant run game once again. And the young talent has finally gotten some needed experience.

The center without Nalen is a concern, however. Because Denver ranks poorly in both run stuff percentage and power percentage (making first down on third or fourth and very short).

Denver's variance is very high which means that Denver has wavered from great on offense to average more than any other team in the league, but one other. With Denver's improved offensive line next year and with Jay Cutler improving, there is a good chance that Denver will be more consistent on offense overall and will be much better in the run game.

I'll post the defensive analysis later.

Archimedes Owl
12-13-2007, 11:30 AM
Bumping my thread.

AmericanBronc
12-13-2007, 11:51 AM
Is it you or them who are posting the Defensive Analysis "later"? Because I'm more interested in that. Particularly, I'm concerned with how it's improving/regressing.

PowderAddict
12-13-2007, 11:53 AM
Thanks AO, that seems about right.

I wonder what the variance would be over the last 5 games or so. I’d be curious to see how that would compare to earlier in the season.

The variance and ranking don’t concern me as much as seeing steady improvement over time in those areas.

DancingHorsey
12-13-2007, 12:54 PM
Well, Denver is just slightly above average according to football outsiders DVOA ratings right now.

Let's break it down a bit further:

Pass Offense:

Denver is generally above average in pass offense ranking 7th in DVOA with 21.6% which is pretty good. This takes into account Cutler's interceptions. And it is in line with conventional statistics like yards per attempt in which he ranks seventh. Or passer rating in which he ranks 9th.

Marshall has shown that he can be a number one quality reciever. And Stokely has shown that he's able to be a quality number two reciever. With Walker in the lineup, Denver has plenty of wide reciever options. This allows them to line up in multiple reciever sets easily, but that's not all. Denver's tight ends are better than stats would suggest. Daniel Graham ranks 6th in the league in DVOA catching a very good catch percentage (72%). Tony Scheffler ranks 10th in DVOA with an even better catch percentage (80%).

They don't look so terrific individually because the pass offense does so many different things, but they provide great flexibility. Both can catch and we can switch from two tight ends to three wide recievers quickly by splitting one wide.

Denver ranks 7th in lowest sack percentage which is pretty good.


Rushing Offense:

Denver's rushing offense is merely average according to DVOA ratings, Denver ranks 13th. The good thing is that Denver ranks well in certain parts of the line including 6th around each the left and right ends in yards per carry and 8th between left tackle and guard.

Denver ranks poorly through the center/guard slots at 29 and 21st against the right tackle guard slot. Both are poor, but they point to one thing and that's that Denver has a very talented offense with a couple of holes. Denver improved in both weak slots in their last game, so their is hope for Myers to improve as he gets experience, but Kuper on the right side looks like an improvement as Ben Hamilton and Nalen return.

At least for next year, Denver could have a dominant run game once again. And the young talent has finally gotten some needed experience.

The center without Nalen is a concern, however. Because Denver ranks poorly in both run stuff percentage and power percentage (making first down on third or fourth and very short).

Denver's variance is very high which means that Denver has wavered from great on offense to average more than any other team in the league, but one other. With Denver's improved offensive line next year and with Jay Cutler improving, there is a good chance that Denver will be more consistent on offense overall and will be much better in the run game.

I'll post the defensive analysis later.

Pretty much supports what I already thought. Our offense has been wildly up and down, and can't run on the inside to save their lives.

Archimedes Owl
12-14-2007, 12:07 AM
Well, Denver is just slightly above average according to football outsiders DVOA ratings right now.

Let's break it down a bit further:
Denver's overall defensive rating according to DVOA is 5.9% which ranks 21st. This is below average. Denver's overall defensive variance rank is 1st. This means that Denver is the least consistent team on defense.

Pass Defense: Denver ranks overall poorly on pass defense, but there's more to it than that. Denver ranks 21st in pass defense with a 11.9% rating. This is below average, but Denver isn't below average across the board. Denver ranks 4th against #1 and 4th against #2 WRs. Denver falls apart against #3/4 recievers and ranks the worst in the league. Denver ranks 30th against TEs. Denver ranks 11th against RBs.

Denver's crazy high variance is partially because Denver is way above average in some facets and way below average in some facets, but the rankings also point to some clear holes in the secondary. Until this year, Denver has always ranked well against #3 recievers with Foxworth at nickle, so I think it's fair to say that he is our best option there. As for safety, that's a tough call. Until this year, Denver ranked above average in coverage across the board. I personally think that we do have to address safety in the offseason.


Rushing Defense:

Denver's rating in rushing defense DVOA is 0.6% which in recent years would have placed us closer to average, but this year, it ranks us 25th.

Denver ranks 19th around the left end, 19th just inside the left tackle, 15th behind the center, 30th inside the right tackle and 11th around right end.

It's hard to figure exactly what has gone on here and which players have done a poor job. But, the defensive line is young. And there is a good chance that we will see some improvement simply by our younger players getting some experience next year.