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View Full Version : Statistical Analysis -- AFC Playoff Defenses


Archimedes Owl
01-05-2006, 01:43 PM
Cincinatti Bengals

Passing Defense: The passing defense of the Cincinatti Bengals is statistically one of the worst in the league. They are ranked 28th in yards allowed per attempt and are ranked 28th in completion percentage yielded. Despite this, they are ranked first in interceptions with 31. The high completion percentage suggests that they allow the underneath stuff all day and still allow big plays at times, but play to get some interceptions in between. In other words, they are a high reward, high risk gambling passing defense. Any team in the playoffs will be able to exploit their passing weaknesses.

Rushing Defense: Cincinatti is 20th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. This stat is usually skewed a bit by good teams, because teams tend not to run on teams when they are behind by a good margin. Cincinatti has an explosive offense and a lot of wins, so it stands to reason that they've had a good lead for many of their games this year. Despite that fact, they have yeilded a high number of yards per game. They also rank 27th in yards per carry allowed. Of course, this statistic is usually skewed a bit by teams that have large leads for much of the time. The problem is that teams tend to pass on teams when they get a large lead and the defense tends to key in on the pass. With this in mind, they are probablly better than their ranking would suggest in this category. Still, even if this is some of the reason for the high yards per carry allowed, it doesn't explain the reason for allowing a lot of yards allowed per game as well. One is skewed by having a lead, while the other is skewed by leading, so something has to give and the only conclusion that you can draw is that they are bad at stopping the run.

Denver Broncos

Passing Defense: Denver is ranked 29th in yards allowed per game, but this statistic is misleading, because the Broncos also lead the league in passing attempts against them this year. They are allowing the third lowest completion percentage in the league, trailing only Washington and Dallas. They are also allowing the fourth lowest yards per attempt behind only Washington, Baltimore and Chicago. These stats just show how much having a big lead can skew statistics. Teams have been passing on Denver to get back in the game all year, so they appear to be much worse than one would expect at passing defense. Of course, you'll notice that Denver has played their corners off for much of the year. Most of the times when a team plays their corners off, those same teams allow a lot of underneath passes, but the Broncos ranking in the completion percentage suggests that teams haven't been able to consistently exploit this. The reason is that Denver has some very good tackling corners. They are quick to come up and make the hit. Often when a team plays their corners off so much, it is because their corners are a bit slower, so they need the padding. Denver is different in this regards. Their corners are very fast and were some of the fastest in the draft. Still, they are undersized, so playing them in tight, bump and run coverage doesn't make a lot of sense. They don't have the size to consistently knock recievers off of their routes. Also, by playing their corners off, they are able to react to the quarterback and have been able to get a lot of interceptions because of errant throws and good reads. Because people try to drop the ball off underneath against them, these interceptions have been near the line of scrimmage and have resulted in a few touchdown returns this year. They rank 6th in the league with 20 interceptions.

Rushing Defense: The Broncos rank second in rushing yards allowed per game. This appears encouraging, until you notice that they also allow 4.0 yards per game. This ranks them 15th in the league. The discrepancy can be linked to the fact that they've held the lead for much of the time in the games they've played. They do indeed yeild a mediocre yards per carry, but this number is likely inflated by runs against teams when they've had the lead. Often when a team gets a lead, they allow a few more yards per carry, because they are keying in on the pass. The Broncos are much better at run defense than the latter statistic would suggest and worse than the prior statistic would suggest. They are a top ten run defense, but despite what the rankings say, the strenghth of the team is in pass defense. This is so, despite the fact that they have one of the fastest linebacking corps in the league and a pretty powerful front four that keeps blockers off of this fast linebacking corps. Of course, the Broncos schedule has something to do with this as well. They have a couple of running powerhouses in their division with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers.


Indianapolis Colts

Passing Defense: The Indianapolis Colts have played some very good passing offenses. They've played Cincy, Arizona, New England, Seattle and San Diego. All of these teams are pretty potent on offense with a good passing game. Of course, they've also played Jacksonville twice, Houston twice, Tennessee twice, San Francisco, Cleveland and Baltimore. Indy is 32nd in the league in completion percentage allowed. They are allowing a 67.4 completion percentage. That's 2.5% more than the second worst team, San Francisco. This suggests that they allow a lot of easy underneath completions in their scheme. However, they are also ranked 20th in yards per attempt allowed. This suggests that they are either playing incredibly soft prevent defenses whenever they have a lead, or they simply have a somewhat weak secondary. The latter is likely the case, especially when you consider that they are ranked 5th in the league with 46 sacks. This means that they've been getting a decent pass rush, but with their cover two scheme, they don't blitz often, so even if Houston has padded their stats, they are getting good pressure. That means that their secondary has likely given up a lot of big plays along with a steady supply of underneath plays.

Rushing Defense: Indy is ranked 28th in yards per attempt allowed, but like some of the other teams that have held the lead a lot, this number is likely skewed by the fact that they've had a lead. Still, they are also ranked 16th in yards allowed per game. Of course, they've played a lot of the rushing powerhouses that Jacksonville had to face. They have had to face Seattle, Cincy and Pittsburgh. Also, Jacksonville isn't bad running the ball and they've had to face San Diego. The difference is that they haven't had to face themselves twice as Jacksonville has and they've also faced some of the weak rushing offenses that Jacksonville has faced.


Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Defense: The Jaguars have played a pretty easy schedule this year, but that doesn't mean that they haven't played some good passing offenses. They've played Indy twice, Cincy and Arizona. Those three teams are ranked very well in passing offense. Indy and Cincy, because they are offensive powerhouses and Arizona, because they have been behind pretty often this year. Really, the Jags have had to play a lot of offensive teams that are weaker on defense. They also had to play Seattle this year. Even St. Louis is pretty good on offense. Still, they've also had the priveledge of playing Tennessee and Houston twice and San Francisco, Cleveland and Baltimore, so it's not like they've had a schedule riddled with passing offenses. Still, their rank is likely to be skewed a bit by the few very good passing offenses they've faced. That goes a ways to explaining why they are ranked 17th in completion percentage allowed and 13th in yards per attempt allowed.

Rushing Defense: The tough rushing offenses that they've faced also help to explain why their ranking is not so stellar in that category as well. They've faced the two top rushing offenses in Seattle and Denver (Discounting Vicks scrambles). They've also faced a tough Pittsburgh rushing offense and a pretty tough Indy and Cincy rushing offenses. This helps explain why they are actually ranked 14th in rushing yards allowed per game and 13th in average yards per carry. They are branded as a defensive team and I think that they deserve the title, but their statistics don't show that.

Archimedes Owl
01-05-2006, 01:44 PM
New England Patriots

Passing Defense: The Patriots have been hurt for much of the year this year, so their stats may be skewed by that fact a bit. Their starting to have some of their defensive players return, but their secondary that has been pretty weak hasn't had anybody return really. Their pass defense may still turn out to be better with an improved pass rush in the playoffs. They'd better hope this to be the case. They rank pretty well in pass defense allowing the fourth lowest completion percentage in the league. Where their pass defense has faultered is in allowing the big play. This is evident in the fact that despite being well ranked in not allowing completions, they still rank 30th in yards per attempt. This means that they are giving up a LOT of big plays. Of course, with a stronger pass rush, this will be less of a problem in the playoffs. At least, that's what they're counting on.

Rushing Defense: New England ranks eighth in the league in yards allowed per game and sixth in the league in yards allowed per rush. This is clearly the strength of their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers

[i]Passing Defense:[/b] The Steelers are ranked eighth in the league in completion percentage given up. And they rank fifth in the league in yards given up per pass play. Both of these statistics are impressive when you consider that they had to play Cincy twice, Indy, and San Diego. These statistics become less impressive when you consider that they also played Cleveland and Baltimore twice along with the NFC North. Still, they are a pretty good pass defense.

Rushing Defense: The Steelers are ranked third in the league in yards allowed per game. They haven't had the lead as much as some of the offensive powerhouses in the playoffs, so teams have still run on them a bit. This really makes their ranking impressive as they've also allowed a league low yards per carry. They've only allowed 3.4 yards per carry. The strength of their defense is clearly their rushing defense. Of course, they haven't played many strong rushing units and their stats haven't been skewed by as many meaningless runs when they've had a huge lead, but they still appear to have the strongest rush defense of any team in the playoffs. And by a wide margin on the AFC side.

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Of course, I could also analyze the red zone and situation defenses, too. I'll consider doing that soon, but I'm going to do a statistical analysis of offenses first.