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  1. #1
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    Denver Broncos over/under betting line drops to 8.5 wins in NFL

    The latest NFL odds from the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino don’t quite line up. The San Diego Chargers over/under win total for the 2012 season remains at 9 while the Broncos has slipped to 8 1/2.

    To paraphase A.J. Smith: Hope the Chargers don’t runaway with the division.

    And Vegas doesn’t think they will. In fact, the Broncos still have slightly better odds to win the AFC West (7 to 5) than the Chargers (3 to 2). And the Broncos’ odds to win the Super Bowl (20-to-1) are better than the Chargers (30-to-1). Even though, again, the Chargers’ win total is 9 while the Broncos is 8 1/2.

    “”The (over/under) are determined by the money that comes in,” said Jay Kornegay of the LV Hotel & asino. “”When it was 9 1/2 the Sharp money (bet on the Broncos) was coming in on the under. It’s all about the schedule. The money coming in, the guys I’ve talked to say that schedule is going to be very difficult to overcome. Everything says 9-7. But, that’s if Manning stays healthy.”

    The Broncos’ schedule includes games against New England (13-3 last year), New Orleans (13-3), Pittsburgh (12-4) and Baltimore (12-4). That’s four teams with a combined 50-14 record last year. Then they have Atlanta (10-6) and Houston (10-6). And then there’s up-and-coming Cincinnati and Carolina with second-year quarterbacks Andy Dalton and Cam Newton, and the AFC West against whom the Broncos are 1-8 at home in the past three years.

    The Broncos, by the way, went from tied for the fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl at the time they signed Peyton Manning to what is now tied for ninth-best odds.
    http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/...85-wins/13990/

    What does this mean...

    1. The Chargers are Vegas Favorite to win the division based on how many wins vegas thinks we will get
    2. Odds say we will only win half a game more with PM then we did with Tebow
    3. Odds say we will probably not make playoffs but if we do odds say only 8 teams have a better chance to win it all

    I know odds are effected by bets placed to ensure Vegas does not lose too much money. Wonder how much of this is "smart football" people changing odds and how much of this is odds reacting to bets.

    for the record my odds right now
    1. Broncos win division bet on it
    2. Broncos go to AFC Champ game bet on it

    Right now I do not think we have the defensive playmakers to go further then that but during training camp and reg season that could change!
    Last edited by Hadez; 06-24-2012 at 10:12 AM.
    asked what needs to change Elway responded mentality - Friday Combine presser 3:50
    "Every battle is won before it is fought" - Sun Tzu
    For now I adopt Von WareWolfe

  2. #2
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    And what were the odds the Giants were going to win the SB last year? 28/1

    Nuff said...

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by mray View Post
    And what were the odds the Giants were going to win the SB last year? 28/1

    Nuff said...
    Well ours is not 28/1 so therefore we can not win it

    Nuff said

    Love simple games they are so easy to play
    asked what needs to change Elway responded mentality - Friday Combine presser 3:50
    "Every battle is won before it is fought" - Sun Tzu
    For now I adopt Von WareWolfe

  4. #4
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    Prefer us being underdogs to be honest.

  5. #5
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    Hmm - wonder what this would have been with Tebow

  6. #6
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    Odds have absolutely NOTHING to do with how good Vegas thinks a team is.

    Edit: btw, I'm not accusing anyone specific, im just stating it so if someone who doesn't bet on sports sees this and thinks it has any relevance to how good a team is.

    The line setters are worried about one thing, and that is splitting the bets. They want 50% of the bets on one side, and 50% on the other. There are tons of Raiders and Chargers fans here, who are much more likely to bet the under. Plus probably close to half of the tourists on the strip are from Cali. So therefore they lower it to get more bets on the over.

    It's all about keeping it even... They aren't trying to win big, they are trying to make sure it's impossible for them to lose. And when half the bets are on over and half Are on under, they cant lose, because the odds are always with the house.

    Sorry for the rant, I just wanted to clear up a misconception for those who don't bet or aren't familiar with it.
    Last edited by InElwayWeTrust; 06-24-2012 at 11:21 AM.

  7. #7
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    If we are good enough to get to the AFC championship game then we good enough to win it. That should be evident in the fact that we beat several teams last season that had better teams then we did.

    I think we'll have a good idea of where we are headed after 5 or 6 games. Until then it's anybody's guess.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by InElwayWeTrust View Post
    Odds have absolutely NOTHING to do with how good Vegas thinks a team is.

    Edit: btw, I'm not accusing anyone specific, im just stating it so if someone who doesn't bet on sports sees this and thinks it has any relevance to how good a team is.

    The line setters are worried about one thing, and that is splitting the bets. They want 50% of the bets on one side, and 50% on the other. There are tons of Raiders and Chargers fans here, who are much more likely to bet the under. Plus probably close to half of the tourists on the strip are from Cali. So therefore they lower it to get more bets on the over.

    It's all about keeping it even... They aren't trying to win big, they are trying to make sure it's impossible for them to lose. And when half the bets are on over and half Are on under, they cant lose, because the odds are always with the house.

    Sorry for the rant, I just wanted to clear up a misconception for those who don't bet or aren't familiar with it.
    You touch on it but let me simplify it for those who do not want to read a paragraph of emotional rant.

    It STARTS with who the odds makers think will win. Then it evolves into who they think will be the popular bet. Then it evolves further into where the bets are actually places.

    It is obviously much more complex then this like anything about money but saying who they think is going to win has "absolutely NOTHING" to do with it is probably the most untrue thing said so far

    Quote Originally Posted by KoolBreeze View Post
    If we are good enough to get to the AFC championship game then we good enough to win it. That should be evident in the fact that we beat several teams last season that had better teams then we did.

    I think we'll have a good idea of where we are headed after 5 or 6 games. Until then it's anybody's guess.
    this is the most truest thing said so far
    asked what needs to change Elway responded mentality - Friday Combine presser 3:50
    "Every battle is won before it is fought" - Sun Tzu
    For now I adopt Von WareWolfe

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pruke View Post
    Hmm - wonder what this would have been with Tebow
    probably 200 to 1

    Adopt-A-Poster: Peanut , MarkB

  10. #10
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    The season is not won or lost by predictions and odds

    However if your inclined to believe this is how the season will go then by all means place your bets !

  11. #11
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    on paper chargers easier schedule...our offense def will be better but will the defense be able to stop/contain the top offensive teams we play...patriots texans pitt saints panthers bengals chargers

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by bronco30 View Post
    on paper chargers easier schedule...our offense def will be better but will the defense be able to stop/contain the top offensive teams we play...patriots texans pitt saints panthers bengals chargers
    Chargers play the same schedule except they play the titans and jets while we play the patriots and texans
    "Respect is not given it is earned dog gonit...and they don't respect us...nobody respects us...you know what you got to do in that situation? TAKE IT!!! TAKE IT!!"

  13. #13
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    Well, we weren't that good last year...

  14. #14
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    I wouldn't place much stock in what Vegas posts on their odds. Sports betting is really only done for the convenience of the customer because they don't control the outcome of the game so the risk is mostly to the down side. They set their odds in such a way that they don't lose any money on a sporting event, so they are trying to find a line where they have approximately equal money on both sides of the bet.

    What's it's telling you is that a ton of people were betting the under and they needed more people on the over.

    Vegas makes their real money at the tables and at the slot machines.

  15. #15
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    Now that the initial spewing over the Manning signing is done, the oddsmakers are looking at the entire roster and realizing that we have major holes on our defense. Unless Manning can plug the middle on the d-line, this is gonna be a long season. It may be prettier, as our losses may be 35-31 instead of 13-10, but we are still a 8-8 or 9-7 football team, Manning wont change that!

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