KC Joyner:Teams don't shy away from Bailey (Merged)

[// / yardo]

Teams don't shy away from Bailey
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

Champ Bailey is by far the top cornerback in the NFL. His 4.7 yards per attempt total last year was the best of any cornerback in the four years I have been breaking down tape. Since Bailey is always the best cornerback on the field no matter who lines up on the other side of him, it seems logical offenses would stay away from him under any circumstances.

However, Bailey was thrown at 65 times in 2006, while Darrent Williams, the starter opposite Bailey for 14 games last season, had only 73 passes thrown his way. Bailey had 4.1 passes thrown at him per game, versus 5.2 for Williams.

Interestingly enough, Bailey and Williams were but one example of a number of odd cornerback pass distributions:

• Chris McAlister (7.3 YPA) had 97 passes thrown at him, versus 83 for Samari Rolle (10.1 YPA).

• Antoine Winfield spent the 2006 season lining up opposite a revolving door of cornerbacks on the other side of the field, yet still had 89 passes thrown his way, the seventh-highest total in the league.

• DeAngelo Hall isn't as good as many pundits suggest, but he played opposite Allen Rossum and Jason Webster, both of whom posted YPA totals over 10 yards. Despite the obvious weakness on the other side of the field, Hall had 87 passes directed at him.

Those aren't the only top cornerbacks who had a lot of passes thrown their way. In fact, the top-20 list of the most targeted cornerbacks from 2006 includes a slew of big names.

1. Anthony Henry, Dallas Cowboys -- 100
2. Chris McAlister, Baltimore Ravens -- 97
3. Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears -- 96
4. Carlos Rogers, Washington Redskins -- 96
5. Rashean Mathis, Jacksonville Jaguars -- 95
6. Quentin Jammer, San Diego Chargers -- 94
7. Antoine Winfield, Minnesota Vikings -- 89
8. DeAngelo Hall, Atlanta Falcons -- 87
9. Antrel Rolle, Arizona Cardinals -- 86
10. Fred Smoot, Minnesota Vikings -- 86
11. Fred Thomas, New Orleans Saints -- 86
12. Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 85
13. Dunta Robinson, Houston Texans -- 84
14. Samari Rolle, Baltimore Ravens -- 83
15. Dre' Bly, Detroit Lions -- 83
16. Brian Williams, Jacksonville Jaguars -- 82
17. Asante Samuel, New England Patriots -- 82
18. Drayton Florence, San Diego Chargers -- 81
19. Daven Holly, Cleveland Browns -- 80
20. Will Allen, Miami Dolphins -- 80

Ronde Barber, Dunta Robinson, Dre Bly, Rashean Mathis, Asante Samuel and Will Allen are all arguably the best cornerbacks on their teams, yet were also the most targeted cornerbacks.

So why don't teams avoid the best cornerbacks? There are four possible reasons:

1. The best cornerback is often assigned to cover the top wide receiver. Offensive coordinators may want to stay away from the stronger cornerback if possible, but aren't willing to let their best receiver be taken out of the game.

2. Defensive coordinators will often help the weaker cornerback by rolling coverage his way, giving the offense a choice of throwing into the strength of the defensive coverage or taking its chances against the stronger cornerback.

3. A quarterback can't be expected to change his reads just because there is a less favorable matchup on one side of the field. If the play call says he is supposed to look at the receiver on the side of the stronger cornerback, he will look that way.

4. Some passing plays are predicated on how far off the receiver the cornerback lines up. For example, if a cornerback is playing seven or more yards off the wide receiver, the quarterback and receiver will often have a silent signal call to each other to change the play to a quick hitch pass.

The quick hitch, which is also called a smoke screen, is a pass where the quarterback takes a one-step drop and throws immediately to the receiver. A lot of the best cornerbacks in the league play soft coverage in an effort to stop the deep pass, and are willing to give up these kinds of plays in return.

There are still numerous instances where an offensive coordinator will consistently target the weaker cornerback in a secondary, but the metrics show that in most cases a topflight cornerback cannot expect to take off any games.

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available for a special preorder price at his Web site.

[Hoserman117]

That's a pretty good article. And dang, 4.7 YPA... that is beastly. That's like a good day for runningback... but absolutely terrible if you're a reciever haha

[Sevenis7]

Originally Posted by // / yardo

Champ Bailey is by far the top cornerback in the NFL. His 4.7 yards per attempt total last year was the best of any cornerback in the four years I have been breaking down tape.

Great article, Yardo. (CP is on its way.) Underscores the fact that Champ should have been voted DPOY last year. What's a CB got to do to win that thing?

[ShadeofBlue]

Hmmm, it is an interesting article, but not necessarily in the way that the writer intended it to be. At least from my analysis. I mean, it does put a bit of a plug in the "Champ will see a lot more balls come his way with Bly on the other side" theory, but I don't think that it shows that "teams don't shy away from Bailey."

Someone would have to do a lot more statistics to prove anything, but I think what the numbers are showing are actually something that most people would instinctively know -- that the offense are in fact adjusting for a power corner. The slightly non instinctive bit is that they aren't simply tossing to the other end of the field.

My thoughts: take the Broncos last year and their defensive rankings. We all know that the Broncos had a bad pass rush -- one of the worst in the league. Now, you'd assume that a quarterback (or an offensive planner) seeing that the team they were playing would give them far more than average time would start looking down field more often. Makes sense -- you take what the other team gives you, and last year, the Broncos tended not to bump receivers a lot on the line, and gave the qb lots of time. Ergo, deep looks (at the least) should have been the plan.

What the stats show, however, is that the Broncos had very few balls thrown to the corners, on either side, compared to many teams. And if you look at the list of the most thrown at corners, many of them are on teams that were said to have some of the best defenses. The Bears? The Ravens? Chargers? Jags too. Again, this is odd considering that Broncos had a good run D, and the lack of pass rush meant that the QB would have time to get the ball to a deep route.

No, what I think it shows is the teams that played the Broncos did take Bailey into account. They just didn't say "just throw to the other side of the field." That makes sense -- its hard to pull together an entire game plan and practice for a team trying to anticipate where a particular corner will be, or if the other team would adjust who that player would cover, etc. Instead, looks like teams decided to play shorter passing routes that would avoid our corners entirely, or when they did go to the sides, it would be on quite short routes, taking advantage of the buffer on the line. Its far easier to put together a plan like that and fits the facts.

So then, my analysis would be that teams do indeed shy away from a power corner (or corners) -- but the net benefit of such a player is more to cause game planning and qb decisions to shy away from the secondary more than anything. They don't overload one side of the field, simply they tend to block out those type of plays, even when the lack of pressure would normally make them a top choice.

It will be an interesting D we'll see in Denver next year, with an upgraded (hopefully) pass rush, and a great CB duo. I'd love to see lots of errant throws caused by pressure towards Bailey and Bly, but I'm not sure we'll see it. Just more short dumpoffs, and (probably) a more effective run game against us.

Oh, and seeing those stats also made me wonder (again) why Bailey didn't get DPOY last year. The more I know, the more I feel he got ripped. There's always next year, though.

[ChampPik4Six]

Theres an article on ESPN.com about Champ getting testes eventhough hes the best. Can somebody who has insider help so i can read the whole article.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...lid%3dtab6pos2

[Prodigal19]

yes somebody please post this.

[CinnaMunMun]

Somebody already did post it.

EDIT: Less than half a page down guys.
http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=94212

[Prodigal19]

Originally Posted by CinnaMunMun

Somebody already did post it.

EDIT: Less than half a page down guys.
http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=94212

Oh wow I dont know how I missed that. Thanks!

[arapaho]

champ getting testes...isnt that short for testicals

[JetterIsBetter]

Originally Posted by ChampPik4Six

Theres an article on ESPN.com about Champ getting testes eventhough hes the best. Can somebody who has insider help so i can read the whole article.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...lid%3dtab6pos2

Champ is getting testes? I was thinkin he probly already had 2? LOL. Anyways, heres the article.

Champ Bailey is by far the top cornerback in the NFL. His 4.7 yards per attempt total last year was the best of any cornerback in the four years I have been breaking down tape. Since Bailey is always the best cornerback on the field no matter who lines up on the other side of him, it seems logical offenses would stay away from him under any circumstances.

May 22 Glossary
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.
• Complete Glossary


However, Bailey was thrown at 65 times in 2006, while Darrent Williams, the starter opposite Bailey for 14 games last season, had only 73 passes thrown his way. Bailey had 4.1 passes thrown at him per game, versus 5.2 for Williams.

Interestingly enough, Bailey and Williams were but one example of a number of odd cornerback pass distributions:

• Chris McAlister (7.3 YPA) had 97 passes thrown at him, versus 83 for Samari Rolle (10.1 YPA).

• Antoine Winfield spent the 2006 season lining up opposite a revolving door of cornerbacks on the other side of the field, yet still had 89 passes thrown his way, the seventh-highest total in the league.

• DeAngelo Hall isn't as good as many pundits suggest, but he played opposite Allen Rossum and Jason Webster, both of whom posted YPA totals over 10 yards. Despite the obvious weakness on the other side of the field, Hall had 87 passes directed at him.

Those aren't the only top cornerbacks who had a lot of passes thrown their way. In fact, the top-20 list of the most targeted cornerbacks from 2006 includes a slew of big names.

1. Anthony Henry, Dallas Cowboys -- 100
2. Chris McAlister, Baltimore Ravens -- 97
3. Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears -- 96
4. Carlos Rogers, Washington Redskins -- 96
5. Rashean Mathis, Jacksonville Jaguars -- 95
6. Quentin Jammer, San Diego Chargers -- 94
7. Antoine Winfield, Minnesota Vikings -- 89
8. DeAngelo Hall, Atlanta Falcons -- 87
9. Antrel Rolle, Arizona Cardinals -- 86
10. Fred Smoot, Minnesota Vikings -- 86
11. Fred Thomas, New Orleans Saints -- 86
12. Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 85
13. Dunta Robinson, Houston Texans -- 84
14. Samari Rolle, Baltimore Ravens -- 83
15. Dre' Bly, Detroit Lions -- 83
16. Brian Williams, Jacksonville Jaguars -- 82
17. Asante Samuel, New England Patriots -- 82
18. Drayton Florence, San Diego Chargers -- 81
19. Daven Holly, Cleveland Browns -- 80
20. Will Allen, Miami Dolphins -- 80

Ronde Barber, Dunta Robinson, Dre Bly, Rashean Mathis, Asante Samuel and Will Allen are all arguably the best cornerbacks on their teams, yet were also the most targeted cornerbacks.

So why don't teams avoid the best cornerbacks? There are four possible reasons:

1. The best cornerback is often assigned to cover the top wide receiver. Offensive coordinators may want to stay away from the stronger cornerback if possible, but aren't willing to let their best receiver be taken out of the game.

2. Defensive coordinators will often help the weaker cornerback by rolling coverage his way, giving the offense a choice of throwing into the strength of the defensive coverage or taking its chances against the stronger cornerback.

3. A quarterback can't be expected to change his reads just because there is a less favorable matchup on one side of the field. If the play call says he is supposed to look at the receiver on the side of the stronger cornerback, he will look that way.

4. Some passing plays are predicated on how far off the receiver the cornerback lines up. For example, if a cornerback is playing seven or more yards off the wide receiver, the quarterback and receiver will often have a silent signal call to each other to change the play to a quick hitch pass.

The quick hitch, which is also called a smoke screen, is a pass where the quarterback takes a one-step drop and throws immediately to the receiver. A lot of the best cornerbacks in the league play soft coverage in an effort to stop the deep pass, and are willing to give up these kinds of plays in return.

There are still numerous instances where an offensive coordinator will consistently target the weaker cornerback in a secondary, but the metrics show that in most cases a topflight cornerback cannot expect to take off any games.

[// / yardo]

Originally Posted by ChampPik4Six

Theres an article on ESPN.com about Champ getting testes eventhough hes the best. Can somebody who has insider help so i can read the whole article.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...lid%3dtab6pos2

It's been posted...

http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=94212

[ydave77]

Thats great that Champ had the lowest YPA since he has been tracking it over the last 4 yrs? Does he mention anywhere else who is 2nd, or for that matter what the 5 best seasons are? That would be interesting to know if 4.7 is head and shoulders better than any other year, or if its 1st in a series of sub 5 years.

[JoRo]

Actually looking at it though by comparison Bailey was thrown at much less than some of the other big names....

One of the reasons DWill wasnt thrown at as much either is the middle of our D became super soft to TE's and Backs...

Just figured I would throw that out there... Bailey wasn't avoided like I thoguht, but he sure isn't thrown at a lot either and I think they do avoid him some... especially prevalent when the middle of our D sucked against the pass (due to lack of pass rush)

[JoRo]

Originally Posted by ShadeofBlue

Hmmm, it is an interesting article, but not necessarily in the way that the writer intended it to be. At least from my analysis. I mean, it does put a bit of a plug in the "Champ will see a lot more balls come his way with Bly on the other side" theory, but I don't think that it shows that "teams don't shy away from Bailey."

Someone would have to do a lot more statistics to prove anything, but I think what the numbers are showing are actually something that most people would instinctively know -- that the offense are in fact adjusting for a power corner. The slightly non instinctive bit is that they aren't simply tossing to the other end of the field.

My thoughts: take the Broncos last year and their defensive rankings. We all know that the Broncos had a bad pass rush -- one of the worst in the league. Now, you'd assume that a quarterback (or an offensive planner) seeing that the team they were playing would give them far more than average time would start looking down field more often. Makes sense -- you take what the other team gives you, and last year, the Broncos tended not to bump receivers a lot on the line, and gave the qb lots of time. Ergo, deep looks (at the least) should have been the plan.

What the stats show, however, is that the Broncos had very few balls thrown to the corners, on either side, compared to many teams. And if you look at the list of the most thrown at corners, many of them are on teams that were said to have some of the best defenses. The Bears? The Ravens? Chargers? Jags too. Again, this is odd considering that Broncos had a good run D, and the lack of pass rush meant that the QB would have time to get the ball to a deep route.

No, what I think it shows is the teams that played the Broncos did take Bailey into account. They just didn't say "just throw to the other side of the field." That makes sense -- its hard to pull together an entire game plan and practice for a team trying to anticipate where a particular corner will be, or if the other team would adjust who that player would cover, etc. Instead, looks like teams decided to play shorter passing routes that would avoid our corners entirely, or when they did go to the sides, it would be on quite short routes, taking advantage of the buffer on the line. Its far easier to put together a plan like that and fits the facts.

So then, my analysis would be that teams do indeed shy away from a power corner (or corners) -- but the net benefit of such a player is more to cause game planning and qb decisions to shy away from the secondary more than anything. They don't overload one side of the field, simply they tend to block out those type of plays, even when the lack of pressure would normally make them a top choice.

It will be an interesting D we'll see in Denver next year, with an upgraded (hopefully) pass rush, and a great CB duo. I'd love to see lots of errant throws caused by pressure towards Bailey and Bly, but I'm not sure we'll see it. Just more short dumpoffs, and (probably) a more effective run game against us.

Oh, and seeing those stats also made me wonder (again) why Bailey didn't get DPOY last year. The more I know, the more I feel he got ripped. There's always next year, though.

Great great post-cp for you! I agree!

[WABronco]

DeAngelo Hall: overrated sack of monkey excrement. HAHAHAHAHA