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View Full Version : How does this honestly make sense.



Kon
02-16-2008, 12:09 PM
-Miami-
Pick #01 - 3000 points

-Dallas-
Pick #22 - 780 points
Pick #29 - 640 points
Pick #61 - 292 points
----------------------
1712 points for two first and a second, and Dallas would possibly throw in a Marion Barber/Marcus Spears/Bobby Carpenter? And that STILL might not be enough value? So.. 4 possible solid starters for.. a.. Darren McFadden? You have got to be kidding me.

So the #1 overall pick is worth all that, not to mention would cost close to the same in cap value? ( I am guessing though )

I really think the draft value chart is unrealistic. Not to mention if this trade goes down Parcells will look like a complete Genius. With as many holes as Miami has, they would be getting way more value in my opinion than Dallas, and I don't see how Dallas would trade away their whole draft and more for one player who may be a bust.

Honestly, if I was the Dolphins GM, and yes I know I am not and I know little about this "business" and such, but I would trade the #1 overall for the two firsts and second most likely, possibly even just the firsts. I don't think that the Dolphins can get back into contention with just one great player, not to mention that a slew of #1 overalls will kill your cap figure. If they can stock up on some 1sts and get them cheaper together than a single player then I would say pull the trigger.

As for the Cowboys, if they think they are so good that they are one player away from a championship, I would say they are wrong.. especially if they are throwing away players in a trade. They could definitely sit where they are and improve if they draft right. You can never have enough depth and youth, unless of course they are costing too much, which I don't think would be solved with #1 overall.

Yeah I am not a GM, but I just think that saying the entire draft of the Cowboys + a starter isn't enough for the #1 overall is ridiculous, regardless of the "point value" chart.

I am welcome to any discussion regarding this though.

BroncosTX77
02-16-2008, 12:21 PM
I honestly think it is just speculation and the media making **** up so they have something to talk about besides spygate, roger clemens, and other stories they have beat to death.

Parcells won't take McFadden.

St Louis won't either.

Atlanta is the only sure bet and that isn't sure-fire since the new head coach is a former Defensive Coordinator.

Raiders re-signed Fargas and also have Michael Bush ready for the season, expect OT/DT for them unless someone forgets to drug Al Davis and change his diaper.

Kansas City has Kolby Smith and Larry Johnson and they need OT to protect Brodie or that coaching staff will be out of a job real soon.

That leaves the Jets as first possible threat to the Cowboys. So that leaves 5 teams who wont do it, and with Falcon's Clearinghouse Sweepstakes going on, they could use extra draft picks so they may be the most likely target for Dallas.

It really comes down to the coin flip. But still 2200 pts at #3 is whole lot easier to make than 3000 pts. And if Atlanta has pick #5 then the points go down to 1700. That leaves Dallas only 260pts to make up.

:salute:

Javalon
02-16-2008, 01:18 PM
-Miami-
Pick #01 - 3000 points

-Dallas-
Pick #22 - 780 points
Pick #29 - 640 points
Pick #61 - 292 points
----------------------
1712 points for two first and a second, and Dallas would possibly throw in a Marion Barber/Marcus Spears/Bobby Carpenter? And that STILL might not be enough value? So.. 4 possible solid starters for.. a.. Darren McFadden? You have got to be kidding me.

So the #1 overall pick is worth all that, not to mention would cost close to the same in cap value? ( I am guessing though )

I really think the draft value chart is unrealistic.
Just focusing on the value chart, I agree that it's unrealistic. If I had the #1 overall pick and wasn't desperate for a franchise QB while a "sure thing" was staring me in the face, I would trade down EVERY time if any other team was crazy enough to give me that kind of value.

Because there is no such thing as a sure thing, I'd go for a safety in numbers approach and get as many other high picks (1st and 2nd rounders) as possible along with possibly a good vet or two. Presumably the team with the #1 overall pick is there because they have a LOT of needs. Getting one "sure thing" won't turn your team around by himself and could set your franchise back years if he busts.

I think most teams are not desperate enough to trade everything but the kitchen sink to acquire the #1 pick (or even the top few picks) which is why you rarely see trades from lower in the round up to the top.

FinNasty
02-16-2008, 01:36 PM
SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!! Dont let Dallas hear you!!!!

gyldenlove
02-16-2008, 03:52 PM
Can you get a player of Darren McFadden quality at 22 or 28? can you get Chris Long?

Fact is that the #1 pick can always yield the best player. The player you get 22 or 28 might not even be the 3rd best player at his position. There is an enormous difference.

The 28th pick is not really any better than the Miami's own 32nd pick, it is true you have 4 more players to choose form at 28, but you have to pay that much more because it is a 1st round pick. The draft value chart is too steep in the first 5 picks, the team that drafts 3rd overall has to give 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks to trade up 2 spots, that is the major issue, the value difference between number 1 and number 22 is about right.

Ravage!!!
02-16-2008, 04:00 PM
They want to make it extremely high and unreasonable to trade away the #1 overall pick. Thats the point. Otherwise, people would always do it. The reason some teams don't, is because they WANT or need that franchise QB on their team. Most likely, the reason most teams don't trade down, is they can't find someone willing to give enough, and that is what the NFL wants. FOr it to be TOUGH to get value (although, you don' thave to go by the charts).. and make it difficult for both the team moving up, and for the team to find a team willing to give enough.

That gives it VALUE.... thus makes that spot WORTH something. If it was easy to trade away, and easy for teams to move up to it... it wouldn't be worth anything.

Kon
02-16-2008, 04:02 PM
Can you get a player of Darren McFadden quality at 22 or 28? can you get Chris Long?

Fact is that the #1 pick can always yield the best player. The player you get 22 or 28 might not even be the 3rd best player at his position. There is an enormous difference.

The 28th pick is not really any better than the Miami's own 32nd pick, it is true you have 4 more players to choose form at 28, but you have to pay that much more because it is a 1st round pick. The draft value chart is too steep in the first 5 picks, the team that drafts 3rd overall has to give 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks to trade up 2 spots, that is the major issue, the value difference between number 1 and number 22 is about right.

Is Darren McFadden worth a Marcus Spears, a Jonathon Stewart, a Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, and a Phillip Wheeler on a 1-15 team? I don't think so... but I guess you are entitled to your opinion. :rolleyes:

Kon
02-16-2008, 04:06 PM
They want to make it extremely high and unreasonable to trade away the #1 overall pick. Thats the point. Otherwise, people would always do it. The reason some teams don't, is because they WANT or need that franchise QB on their team. Most likely, the reason most teams don't trade down, is they can't find someone willing to give enough, and that is what the NFL wants. FOr it to be TOUGH to get value (although, you don' thave to go by the charts).. and make it difficult for both the team moving up, and for the team to find a team willing to give enough.

That gives it VALUE.... thus makes that spot WORTH something. If it was easy to trade away, and easy for teams to move up to it... it wouldn't be worth anything.

And ends up screwing the team that is last in the NFL? If you don't want people to trade draft picks.. then make them untradeable.. in fact take out trades altogether, we'll just have free agency, unless you don't want that either.. Then when players can't be afforded, they can just be cut and not allowed to sign anywhere. Makes the NFL really fun. :smug:

Ravage!!!
02-16-2008, 04:22 PM
And ends up screwing the team that is last in the NFL? If you don't want people to trade draft picks.. then make them untradeable.. in fact take out trades altogether, we'll just have free agency, unless you don't want that either.. Then when players can't be afforded, they can just be cut and not allowed to sign anywhere. Makes the NFL really fun. :smug:

There is a difference btween adding value, and completely removing. Putting VALUE on that #1 overall pick makes it WORTH something. If you make it where any team in the draft can move up and take it, it makes it worthless. It makes it available to any team, at any time, while giving away squat for it.

Its not 'screwing' the team with the worst record. Again, they don't have to go by the chart at all. They can rightfully take a handtowel for that pick if they want to. The chart is just a chart, its not a rule. Sometimes those teams get great value for trading away that #1 overall, sometimes they don't. Getting 2 first round picks in the same day, isn't bad.

I'm glad there is high value on that pick rather than making it as though any team in the NFL can simply give away a couple picks for it.

Thats why the NFL's draft.. is by far.. (not even CLOSE) to being teh best professional draft in ALL of sports. It gets better ratings than the PLAYOFFS of both baseball and basketball. So I'm guessing they must be doing something right with it.

Javalon
02-16-2008, 04:24 PM
Can you get a player of Darren McFadden quality at 22 or 28? can you get Chris Long?

Fact is that the #1 pick can always yield the best player. The player you get 22 or 28 might not even be the 3rd best player at his position. There is an enormous difference.
Maybe in theory but not in practice. I think the #1 pick gives you a better chance at getting a better player than at #28 but it's still only a chance. We all know how many "sure things" become huge busts.

And considering the money you pay the top picks, it hurts a whole lot more when they bust.

Trading down might give you less chance per pick of getting that elite players but you get a whole lot more picks which increases your overall chances of getting one or more elite players.

Mike1709
02-16-2008, 05:10 PM
If I were the Dolphins GM, I'd do the trade in an instant if it was offered.

If the Cowboys are even considering involving Marion Barber in the trade then they have taken leave of their senses as I believe the Cowboys would be a better team with Barber but without McFadden than they would with McFadden but without Barber, even without talking about all the other draft picks they'd be throwing at Tuna

Archimedes Owl
02-16-2008, 05:29 PM
I think that the value chart cannot be made accurate in the least at the very top. After all, every draft has different value. A John Elway prospect might be worth three first round prospects. And there is a definite value in the choice that a first pick gets. I mean, what if Houston traded down the year before last? Perhaps they'd hope that somebody else wanted Reggie Bush and that they could still pick up Mario Williams, but what if the person actually was after Mario Williams and liked him enough to trade up and not get Bush?

Well then, they'd lose their opportunity. And that has some value.

Still, I think that in most drafts, the top picks are overrated. A good personal man should be willing to lose some value in a draft without a standout Elway-esque prospect according to the chart. Of course, this is all complicated by the fact that different teams have different ideas for the value of this draft depending on their needs and different scouting and their philosophies.

But, the fact that the top teams have to pay so much more money than people just ten slots back should make trading back more popular in my opinion.

pipes
02-17-2008, 09:25 AM
If I were the Dolphins GM, I'd do the trade in an instant if it was offered.

If the Cowboys are even considering involving Marion Barber in the trade then they have taken leave of their senses as I believe the Cowboys would be a better team with Barber but without McFadden than they would with McFadden but without Barber, even without talking about all the other draft picks they'd be throwing at Tuna

huh?! :confused:

Cugel
02-17-2008, 09:54 AM
Fans always criticize the draft points system, but you have to remember how it evolved. The Dolphins Jimmy Johnson originally developed it and it's been refined since. They took the average compensation teams gave for each pick and developed it into a values system.

It's not perfect or foolproof, but it provides a starting point for evaluating trades. Overall the system is designed to make it easier to evaluate whether a trade offer is reasonable, given that you don't have forever to decide when you are on the clock in the draft.

Is 3000 points realistic for the first pick? Really, that depends. Suppose that it is 1998 and you desperately need a franchise QB. Well, as far as franchise QB prospects go, there's Peyton Manning, or you could be the San Diego Chargers and wind up with the #2 pick, and take the well regarded . . . Ryan Leaf! :laugh:

Big difference wouldn't you say?

Or suppose that it's 2004 and you're the New York Giants and can trade with the Chargers to #1 for QB Eli Manning, versus being the Raiders at #2 and taking . . . OT Robert Gallery.

Or suppose that it's 2002 and you're the Cincinnati Bengals and can take Carson Palmer, versus being the Lions and winding up with . . . . WR Charles Rodgers.

Of course, sometimes it works in reverse, like in 2001 when the Texans with #1 took David Carr, versus the Carolina Panthers who grabbed DE Julius Peppers with #2! :laugh:

lvbronx
02-17-2008, 10:45 AM
Fans always criticize the draft points system, but you have to remember how it evolved. The Dolphins Jimmy Johnson originally developed it and it's been refined since. They took the average compensation teams gave for each pick and developed it into a values system.


I thought it was the Cowboy's GM Tex Schram that developed the point system?

It is just a starting point and isn't etched in stone.

John Elway would have been worth more than 3000 points coming out, while Alex Smith was probably worth more like 2400, as not all #1s are equal.

Zealander
02-17-2008, 11:30 PM
We all know how many "sure things" become huge busts.



Like Jay Cutler. :doh: