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View Full Version : That's right, Starting Kyle Orton over Tom Brady!



bcole23
09-09-2010, 08:22 AM
Got both Orton and Brady in my fantasy football draft and am starting Kyle with no reservations.

Bernie24
09-09-2010, 08:25 AM
Didn't Tom Brady get ran over or something.

Apoc13
09-09-2010, 08:25 AM
i'm a homer....just not that big of a homer :D

Mr Spanky
09-09-2010, 08:26 AM
It's a great pick. We'll be throwing lots.

I keep waiting for a bus to hit all of our backs at once.

Apoc13
09-09-2010, 08:32 AM
It's a great pick. We'll be throwing lots.

I keep waiting for a bus to hit all of our backs at once.


as scary as it is, we'll be running the ball far more than the pats...the pats have nobody

Brakshow
09-09-2010, 08:37 AM
I'm playing Orton over Flacco this week because they are against the Jets :thumb:

SoulVision
09-09-2010, 08:39 AM
Now here's a tough one, I have Manning and Orton in mine...who should I start :P

B Real 15
09-09-2010, 08:40 AM
No way would I ever play Orton over Brady.

LSIGRAD09
09-09-2010, 08:42 AM
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/2009/writers/peter_king/06/16/mail/josh-mcdaniels-kyle-orton.jpg

"What I'm saying here, Coach, is start me over that has-been Tom Brady. I got this coach, points galore!"

-Rod-
09-09-2010, 08:46 AM
I'm starting Orton over Romo

Chronic_Toker
09-09-2010, 08:47 AM
I think Orton is gonna have a huge year, but yeah...I'm a homer so that prediction probably isn't worth much.

My fantasy football draft proved how under the radar the Broncos are flying. Only one, yes, one Bronco was drafted by other members of my league (Royal). Because of that I had to draft several :)

1. Moreno
2. Buckhalter (had to have Moreno's backup)
3. Gaffney (my #4 receiver, behind Wayne/Jennings/L Evans)
4. Prater (figured kickers are hit or miss, so why not go with a guy with altitude on his side on a team that consistenly moves the ball but tends to fail in the red zone; got him in round 16)
5. Broncos DST (believe the DST will be a high scoring unit in fantasy this year, and I knew they'd be there in round 15)
6. Orton (*picked him up as a free agent)

Although Gaffney is my #4 receiver, I'm starting him over Lee Evans this week. I have Schaub as my starting QB but I'm expecting Orton to make for some serious trade bait as the season progresses.

BroncoFan1088
09-09-2010, 08:47 AM
I'm starting Manning over Orton... I am a bad bronco fan? :)

B Real 15
09-09-2010, 08:48 AM
I'm starting Manning over Orton... I am a bad bronco fan? :)

Yup u are a tool lol smh.

LSIGRAD09
09-09-2010, 08:50 AM
I'm starting Rivers. That makes me a terrible fan.
BUT it's friggin KC! C'mon man.

B Real 15
09-09-2010, 08:52 AM
I'm starting Rivers. That makes me a terrible fan.
BUT it's friggin KC! C'mon man.

Yup another tool lol.

Mr Spanky
09-09-2010, 08:52 AM
as scary as it is, we'll be running the ball far more than the pats...the pats have nobody

That is really scary for the pats, but I figure our running game will be fine by week 3 or 4 once everyone gets back in the swing of things. It's tough to have lost the entire preseason with our premier backs, but whaddya do?

Frenchy180
09-09-2010, 08:53 AM
Didn't Tom Brady get ran over or something.

I remember hearing about this this morning, but thought it was just a dream, then I seen your post and thought it was a joke... when I checked rotoworld I couldn't help but laugh

Alastor
09-09-2010, 08:56 AM
Got both Orton and Brady in my fantasy football draft and am starting Kyle with no reservations.

I would too.

Brady is playing the #4 defense in the NFL. Orton is playing... The Jaguars.

This one's a no-brainer, Tom Brady or otherwise.

chazoe60
09-09-2010, 08:57 AM
Im starting Orton over Alex Smith. I have a homer team because the one fantasy team I have was an invite from a friend of my wife and it was a damn auto pick draft:sad: so after the draft I Picked up a ton of Bronco players. KO, Know, D/ST, Royal, and Decker. :laugh: I'm either going down with the ship or I'm flyin' high with my boys. I'm hoping for the latter.

owninit
09-09-2010, 09:02 AM
I'm starting Manning over Orton... I am a bad bronco fan? :)

I'm actually starting Shaub over Orton, simply because i think the Indy game will be a shoot out, where Jacksonvilles offesne ins't tooled up for a shoot out, so denver will be less likely to be airing it out in the 4th quarter.


My homer picks were

Orton
Prater
Gaffney
DT


Probably headed after Decker muy pronto, because catches are worth a point in my league.

Hadez
09-09-2010, 09:09 AM
I think Orton is one of the fantasy steals this year.

In yahoo he averages pick 132 which is crazy if you been watching him in the preseason.

My friends league Orton is still in the free agent pool 2 weeks after the draft

Alastor
09-09-2010, 09:12 AM
I'm actually starting Shaub over Orton, simply because i think the Indy game will be a shoot out, where Jacksonvilles offesne ins't tooled up for a shoot out, so denver will be less likely to be airing it out in the 4th quarter.

I think that this too, is fundamentally sound. I'd take Schaub over Orton this weekend too, for the very reason you stated. You know there are going to be some points on that board by the time all is said and done. Denver is likely to have like... 17 to 3.

Apoc13
09-09-2010, 09:18 AM
I think Orton is one of the fantasy steals this year.

In yahoo he averages pick 132 which is crazy if you been watching him in the preseason.

My friends league Orton is still in the free agent pool 2 weeks after the draft

i hope orton is huge this year but the preseason means almost nothing...the lions went 4-0 in the pre-season of the regular season they finished 0-16...just sayin

kylehyden
09-09-2010, 09:18 AM
I'm starting Rivers. That makes me a terrible fan.
BUT it's friggin KC! C'mon man.


I can't even force myself to draft Rivers or any charger because I can't root for them to do good

Chronic_Toker
09-09-2010, 09:30 AM
I'm actually starting Shaub over Orton, simply because i think the Indy game will be a shoot out, where Jacksonvilles offesne ins't tooled up for a shoot out, so denver will be less likely to be airing it out in the 4th quarter.


My homer picks were

Orton
Prater
Gaffney
DT


Probably headed after Decker muy pronto, because catches are worth a point in my league.

Man, there is a strong resemblance between our FF teams. I have all 5 players that you mentioned!

bcole23
09-09-2010, 09:31 AM
Loved the pic and funnyness, that was awesome!

I think with the state that our running game is in, we'll be airing it out for a while and with the new spread stuff we may be doing and a smart qb to throw it, we'll be putting up some points. I think the Pats game will be low scoring. It'll really be interesting as the year goes on because I really believe in my heart that Orton could be a top fantasy pick this year.

I've got Orton, Gaffney, D. Thomas, Prater, and DST. Since I've got Brady and Orton, I should be set there. Taking a hope and prayer on D. Thomas as a reserve. My DST starter is actually the Vikes, but Denver's D may actually suprise too, you never know.

UTBRCOLVR
09-09-2010, 09:34 AM
I can't even force myself to draft Rivers or any charger because I can't root for them to do good

I don't dispise anyone player in the NFL more than Phillis Fing Rivers but if he was available i would have drafted him as my second qb in a heart beat. He is consistantly one of the better fantasy qb's in the league just sayin! And I cannot stand him! If he was on fire i wouldn't even stop to urinate on him lol.

chazoe60
09-09-2010, 09:36 AM
I don't dispise anyone player in the NFL more than Phillis Fing Rivers but if he was available i would have drafted him as my second qb in a heart beat. He is consistantly one of the better fantasy qb's in the league just sayin! And I cannot stand him! If he was on fire i wouldn't even stop to urinate on him lol.

What if he wasn't on fire, would you urinate on him then?

CoryWinget81
09-09-2010, 09:42 AM
What if he wasn't on fire, would you urinate on him then?

I share this guys sentiment.

That Monday Night Football commercial, I yell and cheer and say something mean every time Phyllis opens the pop in the back of the taxi and it sprays all over him...

MAN I really dislike that guy.
I would think seriously of peeing on him

Chargerbomb
09-09-2010, 09:46 AM
I respect Orton, but no way do I ever start him over Brady. The Pats throw the ball as much as any team in the league. The Broncos are a team that would like to establish the run. Brady will likely have at least 10 more attempts than Orton on Sunday.

I was 2 picks away from being able to snag Gaffney in the 14th round. Pissed that I missed him in the 13th.

For you Bronco fans who need a receiver and don't mind having Chargers on your team: pick up Legedu Naanee. You can thank me later.

chazoe60
09-09-2010, 09:50 AM
I've got Antonio Gates on my team.

neckbeard
09-09-2010, 10:07 AM
I respect Orton, but no way do I ever start him over Brady. The Pats throw the ball as much as any team in the league. The Broncos are a team that would like to establish the run. Brady will likely have at least 10 more attempts than Orton on Sunday.
Last season, Tom Brady had 565 pass attempts in 16 starts. That roughly works out to 35 pass attempts per game.

In 2009, Kyle Orton had 541 pass attempts in 15 starts. That works out roughly to 34 pass attempts per game.

It was Orton's first year in McD's system and he was "playing on 2 flat tires" (two sprained ankles).

Buenacolt11
09-09-2010, 10:58 AM
No way would I ever play Orton over Brady.

Yea me niether. I want to get in on that league next year. Unless on a bye, your "studs" start. Long time principle of fantasy football. Play the matchup game with other guys, not your money players.

BroncoFan1088
09-09-2010, 11:03 AM
I'm actually starting Shaub over Orton, simply because i think the Indy game will be a shoot out, where Jacksonvilles offesne ins't tooled up for a shoot out, so denver will be less likely to be airing it out in the 4th quarter.


My homer picks were

Orton
Prater
Gaffney
DT


Probably headed after Decker muy pronto, because catches are worth a point in my league.

I got all those except the Defense... I got the Jets Defense which I'm pumped about.

I'm using Gaffney, Peyton Manning, Prater, Reggie Wayne, Jets Defense, Jammal Charles, Ronnie Brown, Jerimichael Finley, and... Peyton Hillis for now but I just picked up NE's fred taylor since maroney is injured... of course I'd have hillis though haha

Apoc13
09-09-2010, 11:09 AM
Yea me niether. I want to get in on that league next year. Unless on a bye, your "studs" start. Long time principle of fantasy football. Play the matchup game with other guys, not your money players.

exactly...and on the off chance that orton has a better day you'll hear a ton of i told you so's...but it's irrelevant, brady is the better qb with better weapons...but, with that being said, i hope brady sucks and orton is huge this week

garzjoe
09-09-2010, 11:10 AM
I had Orton on one of my many Fantasy teams last year. Numbers wise he did not do too bad...I could see him putting up bigger numbers and getting more points this year.

Thx,
Joe

BroncoFanBoy
09-09-2010, 11:13 AM
if i was in fantasy, i would have some tough decisions.

i could do Trent Edwards as my starter or I could do Tom Brady. Edwards... or Brady..... tough choice....

Cackalacky B
09-09-2010, 11:31 AM
I'm starting Orton over Carson Palmer. The dude I am playing thinks I'm bluffing, lol.

Orton is going to have a big day. Jacksonvile is pretty stout up front but they are vulnerable in that secondary. Kyle exploits that all day if he just has a little bit of time.

Br0nc0Buster
09-09-2010, 11:37 AM
I would prolly start Brady over Orton, but I can see why one might go with Orton

Brady was just in a car accident, didnt sound serious, but still dont know exactly how hurt if at all he is
Cinnci has a good secondary
since our RBs are hurt, we should be passing a ton on Sunday

I could see them both having good games

Alastor
09-09-2010, 11:42 AM
I'm starting Orton over Carson Palmer. The dude I am playing thinks I'm bluffing, lol.

Palmer's playing the Patriots. Orton is playing the Jaguars. I understand people have player biases, but seriously, this isn't even a question.

Chargerbomb
09-09-2010, 11:58 AM
Palmer's playing the Patriots. Orton is playing the Jaguars. I understand people have player biases, but seriously, this isn't even a question.

Patriots Pass D looks terrible this year. Zero pass rush, and a very green secondary. Expect a big day from Palmer.

The Big D
09-09-2010, 11:58 AM
I got Orton as a #3 QB out of FA. As critical as I am of the guy, I wanted him on my team because my first backup is Big Ben. Rodgers is my #1. I don't see much chance of starting Orton unless Rodgers is injured weeks 1-5, but I can definitely see him as trade bait or possibly starting Rodgers' bye.

EJ7
09-09-2010, 12:03 PM
Why even draft Brady if your going to be a homer?

Tap into your soul, trade Brandy for as many Broncos offensive players as you can get (you should be able to get them all), and complete your homerism is true Bronco form!

:orton::orton:

:P

EJ7
09-09-2010, 12:04 PM
I got Orton as a #3 QB out of FA. As critical as I am of the guy, I wanted him on my team because my first backup is Big Ben. Rodgers is my #1. I don't see much chance of starting Orton unless Rodgers is injured weeks 1-5, but I can definitely see him as trade bait or possibly starting Rodgers' bye.

You got three Qbs :eek:

BlingSter
09-09-2010, 12:09 PM
Ok..

What do you guys think about starting Orton this week over Favre ?

I have Adrian Peterson and Favre.. So i'm kinda stuck here. The saints are no slouch on D, but Favre is pretty good too..

HELP...lol

The Big D
09-09-2010, 12:12 PM
You got three Qbs :eek:

Sure, why not? It was that or a backup TE, and I can grab one of those out of FA any time I want. The difference between a good QB performance and a mediocre one is often 10+ points - there's much more value in having options there than some places, and since WRs and RBs are somewhat interchangeable and IMO my league drafted the skill positions very poorly I don't necessarily need a full slate of backups there - I've got Addai, Welker and Ward as some of my backups. Heck, they're all starting in well over half of 8-team leagues.

I wouldn't draft a 3rd QB except in the 16th round though and in this case he replaced my 16th selection - I would have drafted him if I was paying better attention.

The Big D
09-09-2010, 12:13 PM
Ok..

What do you guys think about starting Orton this week over Favre ?

Gut, I think Orton because I think the wheels fall off for Favre this year, and Orton is usually good the first few games of the season.

24fanforlife
09-09-2010, 12:15 PM
Got both Orton and Brady in my fantasy football draft and am starting Kyle with no reservations.

I have the same qb's and I will also be startitng KO over Brady, our passing game SHOULD have a field day on these fools!

EJ7
09-09-2010, 12:19 PM
Ok..

What do you guys think about starting Orton this week over Favre ?

I have Adrian Peterson and Favre.. So i'm kinda stuck here. The saints are no slouch on D, but Favre is pretty good too..

HELP...lol

Honest and more logical anwser is Farve.

You should almost never bench your elite talent.

BlingSter
09-09-2010, 12:21 PM
Honest and more logical anwser is Farve.

You should almost never bench your elite talent.

Thank you.. I'm really not trying to be a homer here... This is my first time playing FF.. so I'm trying to figure things out.

My only concern is that the Jags d isn't as good as the saints .. But Orton isn't as good as Favre...arrgghh I dunno.. i'm just gonna Roll Favre tonight..wish me luck .

DisDonkePunchs
09-09-2010, 12:21 PM
the football gods must be goin crazy..

EJ7
09-09-2010, 12:27 PM
Sure, why not? It was that or a backup TE, and I can grab one of those out of FA any time I want. The difference between a good QB performance and a mediocre one is often 10+ points - there's much more value in having options there than some places, and since WRs and RBs are somewhat interchangeable and IMO my league drafted the skill positions very poorly I don't necessarily need a full slate of backups there - I've got Addai, Welker and Ward as some of my backups. Heck, they're all starting in well over half of 8-team leagues.

I wouldn't draft a 3rd QB except in the 16th round though and in this case he replaced my 16th selection - I would have drafted him if I was paying better attention.

How often are you gonna bench Rodgers?

Your already stacked with him as you starter at Qb. Theres much, much more value in your situation in loading up on RB/WRs because they will have a better chance of contributing to your team. Your 3rd Qb is rarely, if ever, going to contribute. Benching Rodgers is extremely risky for any reason.

If you want value, theres much more in a 4th-6th WR/RB than a 3rd Qb. Just my two cents.

Alastor
09-09-2010, 12:27 PM
Honest and more logical anwser is Farve.

You should almost never bench your elite talent.

The Saints defense might have something to say about that.

EJ7
09-09-2010, 12:30 PM
Thank you.. I'm really not trying to be a homer here... This is my first time playing FF.. so I'm trying to figure things out.

My only concern is that the Jags d isn't as good as the saints .. But Orton isn't as good as Favre...arrgghh I dunno.. i'm just gonna Roll Favre tonight..wish me luck .

Wish us both luck because I have Farve in my cash leauge.

You shouldnt second guess Farve over Orton. He as Top 5 in scoring last season and is surrounded by some of the best offensive players in the leauge. Losing Rice for half the season is going to hurt a bit, but the Vikes are still stacked at WR. Roll with Farve.

The Big D
09-09-2010, 12:37 PM
How often are you gonna bench Rodgers?

Your already stacked with him as you starter at Qb. Theres much, much more value in your situation in loading up on RB/WRs because they will have a better chance of contributing to your team. Your 3rd Qb is rarely, if ever, going to contribute. Benching Rodgers is extremely risky for any reason.

If you want value, theres much more in a 4th-6th WR/RB than a 3rd Qb. Just my two cents.

Here's my roster:

Typical starters:

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB
RB Ryan Grant, GB
RB/WR Jonathan Stewart, Car
WR Randy Moss, NE
WR Miles Austin, Dal
TE Brent Celek, Phi
D/ST Cowboys D/ST
K Mason Crosby, GB K


Bench:
Joseph Addai, Ind RB
Wes Welker, NE WR
Hines Ward, Pit WR
Vincent Jackson, SD WR
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB
Broncos D/ST
Thomas Jones, KC RB
Kyle Orton, Den QB

I just don't see any way that any RB/WR that I could get in the 16th/FA would ever start through all that, especially if Jackson sees the field this year. Whereas it would only take one injury (Rodgers in weeks 1-5) to get Orton in automatically.

EJ7
09-09-2010, 12:43 PM
The Saints defense might have something to say about that.

Farve ain't nervous and neither am I.

He was one of the best fantasy Qbs last season. Benching him for the sake of a terrible matchup is more often than not a bad idea with your elite players.

Apoc13
09-09-2010, 12:44 PM
The Saints defense might have something to say about that.

he threw for over 300 against them in the nfc title game last year

Apoc13
09-09-2010, 12:48 PM
I'm starting Orton over Carson Palmer. The dude I am playing thinks I'm bluffing, lol.

Orton is going to have a big day. Jacksonvile is pretty stout up front but they are vulnerable in that secondary. Kyle exploits that all day if he just has a little bit of time.


Palmer's playing the Patriots. Orton is playing the Jaguars. I understand people have player biases, but seriously, this isn't even a question.

i would start orton over palmer too but the jag def probably isn't any worse than the pats...the pats are gonna have to win every game 35-34 this year to make the post season

BroncFanIN
09-09-2010, 12:56 PM
Ok..

What do you guys think about starting Orton this week over Favre ?

I have Adrian Peterson and Favre.. So i'm kinda stuck here. The saints are no slouch on D, but Favre is pretty good too..

HELP...lol

I'd start Favre. He's gonna be throwing the ball to whoever he can. I can see the Saints really limiting Peterson, though I think he will get some catches out of the backfield. He's also going to be playing catch-up in the 4th quarter.

If the Saints pressure Favre, he's going to want to dump the ball off pretty quick and save that peanut brittle ankle for next week.

chazoe60
09-09-2010, 12:59 PM
I have a bad feeling about Favre early in this season. I would not start him right now. He has had little to no work this preseason and I think it will finally catch up to him. Just a gut feeling.

EJ7
09-09-2010, 01:00 PM
Here's my roster:

Typical starters:

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB
RB Ryan Grant, GB
RB/WR Jonathan Stewart, Car
WR Randy Moss, NE
WR Miles Austin, Dal
TE Brent Celek, Phi
D/ST Cowboys D/ST
K Mason Crosby, GB K


Bench:
Joseph Addai, Ind RB
Wes Welker, NE WR
Hines Ward, Pit WR
Vincent Jackson, SD WR
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB
Broncos D/ST
Thomas Jones, KC RB
Kyle Orton, Den QB

I just don't see any way that any RB/WR that I could get in the 16th/FA would ever start through all that, especially if Jackson sees the field this year. Whereas it would only take one injury (Rodgers in weeks 1-5) to get Orton in automatically.

Your situation makes much more sense seeing Big Ben has to serve a suspension and the fact you have only 1 RB, 2 WR and a flex.

Still, I really believe there is more value in getting another skill position player on your bench. You currently have 2 players in Jackson and Ben that cannot contribute at all to your team for 3-4 games. Your flex Rb, although a bad ass in a primarily run based offense, is still a backup. Jones is also a backup and over 30. Addai is on an offense that was 32 in rushing last season. Your Rbs are ok, but not particularly great. Dropping Ben or Orton would be a great idea because you would strengthening what appears to be your weakess part of your team, Rbs.



Also, considering Rodgers has a soft schedule the first 4 games (Phi, Buf, Chi, Det), you can wait on Ben to be your backup. Or you can ditch him now for Orton who might take a big step fantasy wise this year with the Broncos realitively soft schedule.

EJ7
09-09-2010, 01:05 PM
I have a bad feeling about Favre early in this season. I would not start him right now. He has had little to no work this preseason and I think it will finally catch up to him. Just a gut feeling.

Doubting Brett Farve is a recipe for disaster.

Farve dosent need work in the preseason at all. None. My god, hes Brett Farve.

BlingSter
09-09-2010, 01:08 PM
Doubting Brett Farve is a recipe for disaster.

Farve dosent need work in the preseason at all. None. My god, hes Brett Farve.

LOL.. OMG it's Brett Favre lmao

The Big D
09-09-2010, 01:09 PM
Your situation makes much more sense seeing Big Ben has to serve a suspension and the fact you have only 1 RB, 2 WR and a flex.

Still, I really believe there is more value in getting another skill position player on your bench. You currently have 2 players in Jackson and Ben that cannot contribute at all to your team for 3-4 games. Your flex Rb, although a bad ass in a primarily run based offense, is still a backup. Jones is also a backup and over 30. Addai is on an offense that was 32 in rushing last season. Your Rbs are ok, but not particularly great. Dropping Ben or Orton would be a great idea because you would strengthening what appears to be your weakess part of your team, Rbs.

No RB I could possibly get would improve the situation - Tim Hightower anyone? Clinton Portis is on wavers... I I don't think I want him. I agree my RBs aren't great, but it was a keeper league I joined this year, and the old owner of my team had no decent keeper, and the top RBs were kept, so that's that.

BroncFanIN
09-09-2010, 01:12 PM
No RB I could possibly get would improve the situation - Tim Hightower anyone? Clinton Portis is on wavers... I I don't think I want him. I agree my RBs aren't great, but it was a keeper league I joined this year, and the old owner of my team had no decent keeper, and the top RBs were kept, so that's that.

Hightower is not bad. Wells is hurt, and their QB is...well, Derek Anderson. I wouldnt pick him up right away, but I'd be watching this weekend to see what his stat line is and how Wells is doing.

broncopuppy
09-09-2010, 01:15 PM
I have to admit, my team name is the Broncos and I will roll with them.

I am starting
Orton
Royal
Garcon
Anthony Gonzales
Dallas Clark
Knowshon
Beanie Wells
Prater
Denver D


I alos have DT and Decker

I ruled in the first superbowl year with Elway, Rod Smith, Eddie Mac, TD and Sharpe.

It worked for me before and feel the vibe it will work again. GO BRONCOS:goz:

EJ7
09-09-2010, 01:18 PM
No RB I could possibly get would improve the situation - Tim Hightower anyone? Clinton Portis is on wavers... I I don't think I want him. I agree my RBs aren't great, but it was a keeper league I joined this year, and the old owner of my team had no decent keeper, and the top RBs were kept, so that's that.

Jerome Harrison? Justin Forset? Even Cadilac Williams.

Theres got to be starters that will improve your situation!

BroncFanIN
09-09-2010, 01:24 PM
I drafted Orton late in my 16 person league. He was a good value.

I also got Jason Campbell, really late.

I'm starting Orton. :D

rogue719
09-09-2010, 01:31 PM
I drafted Orton late in my 16 person league. He was a good value.

I also got Jason Campbell, really late.

I'm starting Orton. :D

Right now I'm starting Rivers and have Cutler on the bench. I may drop Cutler later and add Orton (no one else in the league I'm in really watches Broncos games yet - most of them are in the KC area.)

RB's are Ray Rice and Clinton Portis.

Should be an interesting first week.

EJ7
09-09-2010, 02:00 PM
The Saints defense might have something to say about that.

Interesting article from insider ESPN's KC Joyner

A favorite Bill James rant of mine is the one he made regarding the "Toby Harrah for the All-Star team" controversy. Harrah was a solid third baseman who had a good start to the 1982 season (.336 batting average, 17 home runs). This burst out of the gate led some fans and pundits to believe that Harrah was deserving of the All-Star nod over George Brett and his .300 average and 10 home runs.



Brett ending up winning the nomination, but the fact that there was even a controversy over it perturbed James. He wrote in the 1983 Baseball Abstract:




"Why do we have to put up, every All-Star season, with these asinine editorials about why is this guy on the All-Star team when his numbers are only this -- was there one of you out there who really thought Toby Harrah had become a .336 hitter? And if you didn't think he was a .336 hitter, why did you think that he should have been on the All-Star team?"



That same line of reasoning can be applied to New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. There are those who are touting Williams as an elite playcaller and are using that as evidence to show he is deserving of getting another head-coaching gig.

While there is little doubt that Williams did a superb job of playcalling on the defensive side of the ball during the Saints' playoff run last year, a closer look at a number of areas shows that, outside of that hot streak, this defense really did not play well last year.




It also indicates that, barring some major improvements, this unit and Williams' head-coaching chances could both be on the precipice of a fall.



Let's start this review by noting just how poorly the Saints did in a multitude of important statistical categories last year: New Orleans finished 20th in points allowed, 25th in yards allowed, 21st in yards per play, 23rd in first downs allowed, 26th in passing yards allowed, tied for 24th in rush yards per attempt, and tied for 28th in rushing touchdowns allowed.



Some of those poor showings are also a Williams historical trademark. He has said, "Everywhere I've been, I've had some of the most dominant defenses to ever play in the NFL," but in the 13 seasons he has been either a head coach or a defensive coordinator in the league, his teams have ranked 20th or worse in points allowed on five occasions.



Saints apologists might state that these numbers are a result of having to defend teams that are trying to keep up with New Orleans' offense. That argument certainly has some impact, but if it is the reason for the lousy numbers, how does one explain the case of the Packers' defense?



Green Bay's passing offense was nearly as good as the Saints, and they finished the season third in points scored. That didn't prevent the Pack from placing in the top five in all of the aforementioned categories except points allowed, and they finished seventh in that metric.



Williams does deserve ample credit for the Saints' high interception total (26, third-most in the league), but the metric news here also contains a notable downside.



I say this because of a recent analysis I did on the leaguewide interception and near-interception totals from the 2009 season. One of the factors this review looked at was how often a defense snagged an interception on a play where a quarterback was graded as having made a bad decision.

New Orleans had 10 of these, a total that tied for fifth-best in the league. A showing like that indicates just how effective Williams can be at playcalling his defense into interception opportunities.



That's one piece of good news. Another is that the Saints had 16 non-bad decision interceptions, a total that was the second-highest in the NFL.



The bad news here comes via a new metric I am rolling out called "interception conversion percentage." What this metric does is divide the number of interceptions by the total of interceptions and near interceptions (a near interception being defined as dropped picks or passes that landed close enough to a defender that he could have picked it off).



For example, last year the Saints had 26 interceptions and 14 near interceptions, or 40 total. If you divide 26 by 40 you get a 65 percent conversion rate; that was the best mark in the league and is a feather in Williams' proverbial coaching cap.



The problem here is that the Bill James Plexiglass Principle -- a fancy term for regression back to the mean -- says that performance is unlikely to recur.



Bottom line: The Saints can't count on the idea of repeating something that may have been somewhat fortuitous to begin with. Their two biggest plays of last season -- an interception on a poor decision by Brett Favre late in the NFC Championship Game, and the same against Peyton Manning late in the Super Bowl -- are indicative of their typical game. Give up a ton of yards, but come up with a big turnover to save the day.



If the Saints drop to, say, a top-five ranking in this category, it would mean a conversion rate reduction of about 10 to 15 percent. Assuming the same number of interception opportunities, that would mean a loss of 4-6 interceptions. A drop to the bottom of the top 10 would still be a very good showing, but it would lower the conversion rate by 15 to 20 percent, or a loss of 6-8 interceptions. That would be a huge loss to a defense that, to be blunt, didn't do anything well except rack up turnovers last year.



The best way to offset this potential drop in conversion rate is to get more interception opportunities, and that is Williams' potential saving grace. If he can playcall his charges into more pickoff chances, it would go a long way toward offsetting any interception conversion drop-off. If that doesn't happen, however, it could mean at least a temporary end to both Williams' head-coaching chances and the Saints' attempt at repeating as Super Bowl champs.

:logo:

BluenOrnge4Life
09-09-2010, 04:06 PM
Ok..

What do you guys think about starting Orton this week over Favre ?

I have Adrian Peterson and Favre.. So i'm kinda stuck here. The saints are no slouch on D, but Favre is pretty good too..

HELP...lol I put together a fantasy team for my girlfriend and on her team I have Orton starting over Favre this week too. Favre hardly played in the preseason, he's going up against the Saints D, and Sidney Rice is out - I think Favre is going to start slow. In contrast, Orton has looked good and is going up against a weak secondary.

Starting Orton over Favre makes a lot of sense to me this week.

demonicbroncos
09-09-2010, 08:37 PM
I'm starting Rivers as my qb. Here my starting roster.

QB Philip Rivers
RB1 Frank Gore
RB2 Knowshon Moreno
WR1 Steven Smith NYG
WR2 Steven Smith CAR :)
TE Visanthe Shiancoe
K Nate Kaeding
TM Pittsburgh Steelers

DenFanNPckrLand
09-09-2010, 08:42 PM
I'm starting Orton over Matts Ryan and Stafford. I think it's a pretty easy decision considering that Ryan is facing the Steelers and Stafford is playing the Bears on the road.

Alastor
09-09-2010, 09:01 PM
Ahem:


The Saints defense might have something to say about that.

Just sayin'.

demonicbroncos
09-09-2010, 09:04 PM
Ahem:



Just sayin'.

Nice prediction Alastor. :thumb:

Alastor
09-09-2010, 09:06 PM
Nice prediction Alastor. :thumb:

Thankee! Much appreciated.

DenFanNPckrLand
09-09-2010, 09:46 PM
Thankee! Much appreciated.

Perhaps we should seek your aid and succor, gunslinger.

demonicbroncos
09-09-2010, 09:55 PM
Perhaps we should seek your aid and succor, gunslinger.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV2UMLIWhPs
:D

EJ7
09-09-2010, 10:22 PM
Nobody bump this thread AGAIN!


lol

Bernie24
09-13-2010, 08:58 AM
I thought this would be a bad idea.

Alastor
09-13-2010, 11:35 AM
I thought this would be a bad idea.

You crack me up, man!