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Emily Diana
07-29-2015, 10:30 PM
- Five NFL players who will take a step back in 2015 -

"The NFL is the ultimate “What have you done for me now?” league.

What’s hot one day can simmer down quickly. Most teams tend to focus on taking away their opposition’s biggest strengths, and they do that by watching film and game-planning.

However, some players that put up big numbers continue to produce and go on to have illustrious careers. Veteran receivers such as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald have made a habit of drawing heavy coverage yet still managing to light up the scoresheet.

But there are other players that have put together some dominant performances and followed up by coming down to earth a bit. This article will focus on five NFL'ers that may do just that during this upcoming season." ...

http://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/five_nfl_players_who_will_take_a_step_back_in_2015/s1_12740_19247296

HUMCALC
07-30-2015, 08:32 PM
They're wrong about Murray

Bronco51
07-31-2015, 07:34 AM
Now that Russell Wilson got mega paid, he will take a step back.

fallforward3y+
08-01-2015, 01:53 AM
I disagree about Kaep, because I don't think he'll get worse. He wasn't exactly a great QB by NFL Standards last year(great for a human being, but that's true of all NFL QBs, lol), I don't think he is going to get worse, I expect him to be about the same.

I disagree about Brees. I find it funny that they are acting like he is on the decline because he 'only' had 4,952 yards, tied for first in the NFL I believe. I doubt the departure of Graham will hurt them much either, they do a great job of using receivers well, I think they will find a way to still have a great pass offense. They seem to thrive largely on finding the open receiver, maybe they'll even do that better without Brees being as tempted to throw it to Graham when he is well covered by single, double or even triple coverage.

I don't know if I'll buy it about Odell Beckham regarding teams paying more attention to him hurting him. They may press him, but he may make them pay for it with his quickness. His injury may hurt him though.

With Murray, he is a pretty good back. However, let's also not pretend that it would take an elite RB to put up great stats behind Dallas' line. He was pretty good though, I think he'll do well in Philly, I believe their O-line is also still pretty good.

HUMCALC
08-01-2015, 12:32 PM
I disagree about Kaep, because I don't think he'll get worse. He wasn't exactly a great QB by NFL Standards last year(great for a human being, but that's true of all NFL QBs, lol), I don't think he is going to get worse, I expect him to be about the same.

I disagree about Brees. I find it funny that they are acting like he is on the decline because he 'only' had 4,952 yards, tied for first in the NFL I believe. I doubt the departure of Graham will hurt them much either, they do a great job of using receivers well, I think they will find a way to still have a great pass offense. They seem to thrive largely on finding the open receiver, maybe they'll even do that better without Brees being as tempted to throw it to Graham when he is well covered by single, double or even triple coverage.

I don't know if I'll buy it about Odell Beckham regarding teams paying more attention to him hurting him. They may press him, but he may make them pay for it with his quickness. His injury may hurt him though.

With Murray, he is a pretty good back. However, let's also not pretend that it would take an elite RB to put up great stats behind Dallas' line. He was pretty good though, I think he'll do well in Philly, I believe their O-line is also still pretty good.

PHI had the #1 RUSHING OL last year

-Rod-
08-01-2015, 02:15 PM
Now that Russell Wilson got mega paid, he will take a step back.

He will take a step back, then another step back, and another step back, and complete a nice TD pass to Jimmy Graham.

Bronco51
08-01-2015, 03:43 PM
He will take a step back, then another step back, and another step back, and complete a nice TD pass to Jimmy Graham.

Nah, he'll throw a pick instead of hand it to beast mode.

-Rod-
08-01-2015, 03:54 PM
Nah, he'll throw a pick instead of hand it to beast mode.

If it's a poor play call by the OC, with an inferior receiver like Ricardo Lockette and a perfect play by the CB, then it's possible.

fallforward3y+
08-02-2015, 12:25 AM
Russel Wilson will probably improve, especially with adding Jimmy Graham. Plus, I wonder if Chris Matthews will end up being a good receiver for them. He may even improve to elite QB level honestly, or right below it.

fallforward3y+
08-02-2015, 12:29 AM
PHI had the #1 RUSHING OL last year

It's hard to imagine any line being better than Dallas's in run blocking, but I do believe they are pretty good. I don't know how they rank the O-lines, I imagine it's difficult to find a sound criteria for that.

samparnell
08-02-2015, 06:35 AM
In 2014, the top rushing team in the NFL was Seattle. They had most yards, highest yards per attempt, most rushing TDs and most yards per game. Dallas was second, but by a significant margin.

How much of that has to do with the O-Line or balance or playcalling or scheme would need to be examined more carefully to produce a valid analysis.

CanDB
08-02-2015, 09:18 AM
They're wrong about Murray


Now that Russell Wilson got mega paid, he will take a step back.

I think Murray will have a good year, but even if he comes up short on yardage, which I believe he will, it doesn't mean he has taken much of a step back. It's a whole different team, and a whole different season. But he really had a good situation last year in Dallas, and some of those holes were pretty sweet!

As for Wilson, I doubt he steps back. He's a pro. He wants to improve. Outside of injury, I expect him to be very tough to defend against.

As for JT.....I concur.

JJBroncoFan
08-03-2015, 06:06 PM
In 2014, the top rushing team in the NFL was Seattle. They had most yards, highest yards per attempt, most rushing TDs and most yards per game. Dallas was second, but by a significant margin.

How much of that has to do with the O-Line or balance or playcalling or scheme would need to be examined more carefully to produce a valid analysis.

To be fair, I'm sure Russell Wilson's 800 or so yards had a bit to do with that as well.

JJBroncoFan
08-03-2015, 06:17 PM
I actually just checked, Wilson's 52 yards per game at 7.2 yards/carry definitely skewed those stats a bit.

samparnell
08-03-2015, 06:47 PM
I actually just checked, Wilson's 52 yards per game at 7.2 yards/carry definitely skewed those stats a bit.

IDK how to delineate yards Wilson gained rushing as a result of scrambling on a pass play from those he gained on a called run like Keep on Double Option.

However, I don't understand why Russell Wilson's rushing yards "skews" the fact that Seattle led the league in rushing. When Wilson was the intended ball carrier, the line still did some blocking, didn't they?

It is true that DeMarco Murray outrushed Marshawn Lynch by 500 yards last year, but emphasizing individual performances distracts from team stats which are far more relevant especially in defensive preparation.

JJBroncoFan
08-04-2015, 05:10 PM
IDK how to delineate yards Wilson gained rushing as a result of scrambling on a pass play from those he gained on a called run like Keep on Double Option.

However, I don't understand why Russell Wilson's rushing yards "skews" the fact that Seattle led the league in rushing. When Wilson was the intended ball carrier, the line still did some blocking, didn't they?

It is true that DeMarco Murray outrushed Marshawn Lynch by 500 yards last year, but emphasizing individual performances distracts from team stats which are far more relevant especially in defensive preparation.

My point was in regards to the second paragraph of your post that I quoted. Specifically when you questioned if it was oline, scheme, etc.

Seattle is a very good rushing team, no doubt. I just believe Dallas is a better run blocking unit and that Wilson's stats are skewed due to a number of factors.

Also, I'm not sure I completely agree on your point about individual performance. Do you think a team is even talking about Robert Turbin during preparations? I doubt it, but I am sure they spend some time speaking about Marshawn Lynch and the option game.

JJBroncoFan
08-04-2015, 05:22 PM
An example I would like to add would be our own 2011 season. Were the Broncos the best rushing team in the league that season? We indeed lead the league statistically but were we the best?

samparnell
08-04-2015, 06:23 PM
My point was in regards to the second paragraph of your post that I quoted. Specifically when you questioned if it was oline, scheme, etc.

Seattle is a very good rushing team, no doubt. I just believe Dallas is a better run blocking unit and that Wilson's stats are skewed due to a number of factors.

Also, I'm not sure I completely agree on your point about individual performance. Do you think a team is even talking about Robert Turbin during preparations? I doubt it, but I am sure they spend some time speaking about Marshawn Lynch and the option game.

Defensive coordinators scout formations, tendencies and plays. The problem with defending Spread Option with 11 personnel formations and with an effective running QB is that when there are six in the box, O will outnumber D on either give or keep if the read is correct. In 2011, Denver only led the league in yards and attempts.

When they went to New England* in the playoffs, Belichick's* solution to defending the Spread Option, which he had studied with Urban Meyer, was to run a 50 with the strong side OLB in 9 boxed, 0 tech Aggied to a 1, Eagle the weak side 5 to a 3, weak side OLB on LOS as a 5 with Backers over the strong B Gap and weak A Gap.

There was no place to run and Denver couldn't line up in the I to get the Pats* out of that look because their FB was injured. Denver's passing attack was 9 of 26 and they only put up ten points.

All a good DC will do to counter an effective aspect of the opposing offense is to defend it effectively without compromising the rest. Individual stats are only noticed as being indicative of something being effective. That something is scouted, studied and countered.

fallforward3y+
08-05-2015, 03:40 AM
IDK how to delineate yards Wilson gained rushing as a result of scrambling on a pass play from those he gained on a called run like Keep on Double Option.

However, I don't understand why Russell Wilson's rushing yards "skews" the fact that Seattle led the league in rushing. When Wilson was the intended ball carrier, the line still did some blocking, didn't they?

It is true that DeMarco Murray outrushed Marshawn Lynch by 500 yards last year, but emphasizing individual performances distracts from team stats which are far more relevant especially in defensive preparation.

Yes, it is true that the team's stats are far more relevant than individual stats in judging a line, however Wilson's rushing stats do contribute to Seattle being first in rushing, and it doesn't necessarily require a great line for a QB to get a lot of rushing yards. At times, they aren't even gained on plays intended to be a run, but plays when Wilson notices a running lane open but a receiver isn't open(or perhaps, when he thinks he can get more yards running than he would throwing to any of his open receivers).

There's a reason why running QBs usually have high rushing averages, and it isn't likely because they would be among the most productive RBs in the league if they played RB.

There's also another thing to consider-how much did it have to do with rushing lanes opening up due to defenses giving attention to Wilson's running?

When Vick left Atlanta, rushing stats declined-not just because Vick was gone and there weren't as many rushing yards from the QB, but it also effected the rushing averages of Dunn and Norwood if I remember correctly. A running QB can open up running lanes if defenses give extra attention to stopping his runs.

Seattle's line is likely very good, however no line seems to be as good as Dallas' in run blocking. They seem to be able to beat up elite front sevens in the league in a way I haven't seen in awhile. I remember in week 1, I believe I was worried about San Fransisco's run defense, however....after seeing Dallas's line for the rest of last season, it doesn't seem like getting pushed around by them was necessarily a cause for concern.

58Miller
08-05-2015, 07:58 AM
When teams face Julius they may decide to put their best corner on him, something teams couldn't do vs Denver with DT and Sanders lined up on the outside.

Socnorb11
08-05-2015, 09:43 AM
Keep in mind that Seattle traded away their Pro Bowl center (Unger), and got back a tight end who can't run block (Graham).

Their rushing game should take a step backwards this year.

JJBroncoFan
08-05-2015, 10:49 AM
Defensive coordinators scout formations, tendencies and plays. The problem with defending Spread Option with 11 personnel formations and with an effective running QB is that when there are six in the box, O will outnumber D on either give or keep if the read is correct. In 2011, Denver only led the league in yards and attempts.

When they went to New England* in the playoffs, Belichick's* solution to defending the Spread Option, which he had studied with Urban Meyer, was to run a 50 with the strong side OLB in 9 boxed, 0 tech Aggied to a 1, Eagle the weak side 5 to a 3, weak side OLB on LOS as a 5 with Backers over the strong B Gap and weak A Gap.

There was no place to run and Denver couldn't line up in the I to get the Pats* out of that look because their FB was injured. Denver's passing attack was 9 of 26 and they only put up ten points.

All a good DC will do to counter an effective aspect of the opposing offense is to defend it effectively without compromising the rest. Individual stats are only noticed as being indicative of something being effective. That something is scouted, studied and countered.

The example I gave about Denver in 11 isn't exactly the rule but the exception. Our passing attack was highly ineffective for the majority of the game which allowed an easy adjustment for NE due to the versatility of their defense. You wouldn't get the same result with teams like the Cowboys and Seahawks. As a matter of fact I believe we could have had more success had our coaching staff not insisted on keeping to that plan of attack. We made it very easy for the Patriots in that game.

JJBroncoFan
08-05-2015, 10:51 AM
When teams face Julius they may decide to put their best corner on him, something teams couldn't do vs Denver with DT and Sanders lined up on the outside.

Not to mention that he will likely have a less effective QB throwing his way.