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View Full Version : When does it suck to have a top pick?



Javalon
02-25-2005, 12:02 PM
I've always wondered about this situation. You've got the first pick (or one of the top) in the draft but you don't think any of the players are worth the money such a lofty drafty position will command. So, you decide to trade down and get more lower picks which will cost less...but nobody wants to trade with you because nobody thinks the top picks are worth the money that year.

So, what do you do? Do you simply not make a selection for awhile and hope that other teams will bite the bullet and overpay for the top selection(s)? What if nobody took the plunge and the draft stalled right from the start? It'll probably never happen but this article got me thinking about it again:

Weak crop at the top - No consensus No. 1 pick in what looks like shaky draft (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/don_banks/02/24/banks.top.draft/index.html)

Mat'hir Uth Gan
02-25-2005, 12:25 PM
It's obvious to me that the best players in this draft are the RBs, the CBs would be a close second. You also have Derrick Johnson who WOULD have been picked before Vilma or Williams last season had he come out. Contrary to Razor's opinion, I think he's the best LB since Ray Lewis. He's tall (6'4"), he runs a 4.5 40, he is an outstanding blitzer, and he is SUPERB in coverage.

Now, the 49ers do have problems with Barlow's attitude, and they have a need for a shut down CB and another LB for the 3-4 switch. They have a dire need for a WR. So, they aren't in as bad of shape as it would appear if they get stuck with the first pick.

The combine and Pro Days will seperate the players more, FA will fill some needs, but come draft day, I expect to hear Edwards, Jones, Benson, or Johnson as the first pick called.

Personally, I think it will be: Edwards.

Javalon
02-25-2005, 12:28 PM
Yep, nobody ever seems to consider that not all draft classes are created equal. Even in a weak year at the top of the draft, the players expect to have a slight increase in pay from the previous year's equivalent draft positions. But in a down year should teams feel obligated to pay more? Will there be a ton of holdouts because teams want to pay the players based on their relative abilities compared to previous drafts and not based on their relative draft positions?

It's definitely a year I'm glad my team isn't in the top 5 or 10 picks. Not because there aren't good players. Just on a relative value basis.

Javalon
02-25-2005, 12:33 PM
It's obvious to me that the best players in this draft are the RBs, the CBs would be a close second. You also have Derrick Johnson who WOULD have been picked before Vilma or Williams last season had he come out. Contrary to Razor's opinion, I think he's the best LB since Ray Lewis. He's tall (6'4"), he runs a 4.5 40, he is an outstanding blitzer, and he is SUPERB in coverage.

Now, the 49ers do have problems with Barlow's attitude, and they have a need for a shut down CB and another LB for the 3-4 switch. They have a dire need for a WR. So, they aren't in as bad of shape as it would appear if they get stuck with the first pick.

The combine and Pro Days will seperate the players more, FA will fill some needs, but come draft day, I expect to hear Edwards, Jones, Benson, or Johnson as the first pick called.

Personally, I think it will be: Edwards.
It's not a matter of the 49ers not being able to use the pick. It's a question of whether or not they'll be overpaying for the top pick, regardless of who that might be. For what Eli Manning got paid last year, I want somebody who is going to be a franchise quality player. Is there such a beast in this draft?

But you're right about the combine, and it could change attitudes about the draft in a hurry. Ah, I hate the offseason but at least there's still a lot to talk about.

Mat'hir Uth Gan
02-25-2005, 01:15 PM
It's not a matter of the 49ers not being able to use the pick. It's a question of whether or not they'll be overpaying for the top pick, regardless of who that might be. For what Eli Manning got paid last year, I want somebody who is going to be a franchise quality player. Is there such a beast in this draft?

But you're right about the combine, and it could change attitudes about the draft in a hurry. Ah, I hate the offseason but at least there's still a lot to talk about.

Oh, I think there are multiple ways to look at it though. Drafting an Eli Manning or Phillip Rivers usually requires paying them top dollar to suck or sit on the bench for the first year or two of that contract.

While drafting a LB, WR, RB, or CB usually allows for a more immediate return on that investment. With CBs and WRs, there is usually some degree of a learning curve, but with LBs and RBs, there is usually none. Day 1 starters and successful at that.

IMO, if I'm drafting based on purely financial considerations, I take Benson as he will be the best "bang for my buck". He's worth top money. If I'm drafting for need and financial concerns (as the 49ers), I take Derrick Johnson (switching to 3-4, immediate starter) and he's probably worth the money, if I'm drafting for pure need, I take Braylon Edwards, pay him top dollar, and pray he lights it up from year one like Mike Clayton did.

Mat'hir Uth Gan
02-25-2005, 03:00 PM
M Gan, if you think Derrick Johnson is the best LB since Ray Lewis, then he is definitely the No. 1 pick.....I personally think he will fall out of the Top 10, and no way would I ever confuse him with Vilma or DJ Wiliams, that was on display last season when Johnosn was projected to go after both players had he come out.

To me Johnson is like Braylon Edwards, you just have to compare them to last years Draft prospects....Edwards was behind Fitz, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, etc then, and would still be now....same with Johnson, he would have been projected behind Vilma/DJ...

Johnson?

So, you like him better than LaVar Arrington?
Joey Porter?
James Farrior?
Terrell Suggs?


All of those players, just off the top of my head were drafted since Ray...

Better than all of them?

That's tall cotton, there, M Gan

Actually, I really do. I'll stand by that opinion too, stardom or bust. Johnson is the best LB prospect since Lewis and I believe he will be a superstar in the NFL immediately. I don't see how he gets out of the top 3 picks.

SF - switching to a 3-4, need LBs.
Miami - Greenwood and Seau are gone, Thomas is aging and extremely expensive.
Cleveland - switching to the 3-4, they have Andra Davis and that's about all.

You are absolutely right about Edwards last season being behind those players, but if he had the season he had this year, last year, he would have been ranked even with Roy Williams and Fitzgerald at the top of the draft. Mike Williams ran a 4.67 40 last offseason, that's flat out bad. He was clearly behind Roy and Larry. And he's clearly behind Braylon this offseason.

Fitzgerald was not that impressive btw, he was too slow and he actually dropped quite a few passes, which was supposed to be his strong point.

Roy Williams lived up to expectations when he was healthy though.

Mat'hir Uth Gan
02-25-2005, 04:04 PM
I have yet to see a game where Derrick Johnson was a dominant player....

I know he is an impressive athlete....but has that translated to his actual on-the field play?

Is there a particular game you can point to?


What?

He dominated every game he played for the last 3 years basically. He might have been the best college LB ever.



Complete Bio, all awards, stats, etc....

http://www.mackbrown-texasfootball.com/pages/bios04/johnson_derrick.html


I'll post some quick read links.

http://www.footballsfuture.com/2005/prospects/derrick_johnson.html

http://2005.otcdraft.com/content/profiles/outsidelinebacker/DerrickJohnson.php

Mat'hir Uth Gan
02-25-2005, 04:28 PM
No, my question was, did you actually see any Texas games yourself??


I will throw this out to Oklahoma fan....


Were any of you OU honks impressed with Texas' Derrick Johnson?


I saw the Texas game against Oklahoma and went in person to the OU/Colorado
game.....DJ was just a guy in both of those games.....


I was referring to games you saw, with plays he made that were dominant...a interception, a sack for a safety??? a forced fumble on a sack....the type of plays dominant players make.....not just tackles....stats sometmes lie...


LT or Derrick Thomas type plays....that's the League you basically have placed him in.....hell, Vilma was a virtual highlight reel with the U.....

I will watch the NFL Network this weekend and see what sort of highlight plays he makes....you can tell alot from highlights....do they just run down a player from behind? Or do they crush a block, shed a chop, jump over a guy, tomahawk a QB, force a fumble, intercept a ball at the line of scrimmage....those are the great plays great players make...

Derrick Johnson is Mike Croel to me....a workout freak with great measureables....but not a tough guy and a guy who would rather run around a guy than take him on and blow a play up....

But, I could be wrong, I'll have to see more tape...

Did you read those articles? Did you see his stats? You don't make 130 tackles 3 years in a row being a wuss. You dont cause 8, yes eight, forced fumbles in one season running around players. Defensive player of the week 3 times last season. Out of every defensive player in college football.

The Texas defense was not good, they had Wright and Johnson. Teams game planned to avoid him and still couldnt do it. I would call an average of 10 tackles a game a difference maker, add in the almost 1 forced fumble per game, and yeah, I think he dominates a tad bit. Also, look to his passes defended, not many LBs get in double digits there.

Javalon
02-25-2005, 04:58 PM
This what good scouts lack today......the balls to take a stand :D

All of them are so paranoid about being wrong about a player, and that it may cost them their job, they just sort of go through the "cheese-grader" routine, see what the consensus is, then refine their take from there...

That's why most of the scouting reports you read ona given player are so similar...


Everyone is afraid to be wrong....but it is inevitable as a scout if you are doing your job properly...


All scouts have different things they look for in a player....

On some you hit, on some you miss...
Wow, that sounds like the Broncos. :confused:

Mat'hir Uth Gan
02-25-2005, 05:09 PM
Wow, that sounds like the Broncos. :confused:

No, we just use the monkey/dartboard approach.


I'm convinced 1/4 of the dartboard says runningback. 1/4 says linebacker. 1/4 says cornerback. 1/8 says O-line. 1/8 says trade the pick for an over-the-hill player. And the tiny, weeny, itty-bitty bullseye says D-line.

West
02-25-2005, 05:22 PM
the bad thing about the top spot as said before is if you pick a bust your going to hear about it for a VERY long time...ie Rick Meier...Rashaan Salaam (dont know if he was picked #1 but i think it was #4 by the bears)

HORSEPOWER 56
02-25-2005, 07:23 PM
I would say it sucks the most if you are the Bengals - how many first picks have they had? Jury is still out on Carson Palmer though. ;)

West
02-25-2005, 09:59 PM
OMG the Bengals are about the stupidest team at drafting...Akili Smith LMAO :laugh: