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View Full Version : What I foresee and my analysis-Like it matters



diesel51
01-11-2006, 12:25 PM
First let me say this. I ain't talking smack or trying to disrespect either team. I am only trying to take 2 things, A) what I have seen from both teams and B) what I have read/heard about the matchup. After looking at those two things, my goal is to combine them and come up with a good summary of Saturday's game. But it doesn't matter.

Only respond if you disagree or agree, but state logical reasons, NO SMACK.

Also, Patriot fans, if I forget players names, don't get too angry. After all, I am a Denver fan.

First, lets look at it from a positional breakdown.

Offense

Den- QB: Jake Plummer appears to have grown as a QB in the past year. Due to his diligence, and that of Kube and Shanahan, Plummer is playing more mistake free games, giving him the new nickname, Jake "No Mistake" Plummer. Plummer is a well liked teammate on the Broncos, who has a strong drive to win. He never will be the type of QB that the national media will adore, but he is a very good QB in our system.

NE- QB: Tom Brady is this generation's version of Joe Montana. He is an excellent QB. He is a natural born leader, who has done an excellent job at keeping his team afloat during this injury plagued season. Definitely a HOF. However, he has thrown more INTs this season than one would expect from him, and you can attribute that to injuries and the types of games he was in, but a fact is a fact.

ADVANTAGE- New England

Den- RB/FB: Mike Anderson has been a good back for the Broncos this year, although it did appear that he dissappeared in a few games, whether from injuries, I don't know. Tatum Bell could blow this thing wide open if he plays with confidence. However, don't expect Tatum to excell if he gets stopped early. Finally, our *WILDCARD*, Kyle Johnson. Kyle does a great job getting the seal blocks, but where he will do his most damage is in the passing game. Always a threat out of the back-field. Ron Dayne is also a very acceptable back in case of injury.

NE- RB/FB: Corey Dillon is a very good back, but has struggled with the injury bug this season. Bronco fans remember his name unfortunately, but I do think he is on his way down the career ladder. Faulk can be explosive, but he also seems to benefit only when the 1st back is making headway. Patrick Pass has had some memorable games this year, and can be a load to bring down.

ADVANTAGE- Denver

Sorry, I have to go to work. I will finish this later.

oldrover
01-11-2006, 12:42 PM
I agree about Corey heading down the ladder.

Of Brady's picks this year, IIRC, I believe at least 7 of them bounced off receivers' hands into the air. The one truly bad game he had this year was KC... he was air-mailing balls all over the place.

Tailgater
01-11-2006, 12:44 PM
Good start.

Regarding Plummer, it remains to be seen what will happen if the running game is hindered and Jake is forced to win the game thru the air.

If he can remain as efficient as he has all year, I see the Borncos winning. If he reverts to the snake, the Pats win.

My bet is thats BB's gameplan. Lets see how it goes. Should be a game for the ages!

Bronco_Buster
01-11-2006, 01:12 PM
The Patriots defense was absolutely AWFUL on October 16th. We can all agree on that. Denver didn't exactly roll on offense either. They smoked NE with two long plays...the Tatum run and the Smith bomb. The smith bomb play literrally took 8 to 10 seconds to develop as Duane Starks (now on IR with a mysterious injury) struggled to keep up across the length of the field. Denver didn't score a single point in the second half and Brady still threw for nearly 300 yards. Now, Denver fans will argue that the Broncos went conservative with the big lead and that's a fair argument but no points is still no points. The New England defense has held some pretty strong backs to meager rushing totals since that game...Willis MacGehee had 8 carries for 3 yards up in Buffalo, Caddilac Williams never got out of the driveway, and Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams couldn't do a thing. Now, I'm under no illusion that these are the cream of the crop but the numbers are impressive none the less. When do you ever hear of a back getting 8 carries for 3 yards? I just don't think those big plays are going to happen Saturday night. I envisoin a tight game with both teams battling for field position and time of posession. I think special teams are going to be huge as well. If Denver can neutralize Brady in the spread offense than they'll have a great chance. If New England can pressure Jake and neutralize that god da** play action bootleg than I think NE will have a lot of sucess... Thsi game should make both sides very nervous indeed.

Eldritch
01-11-2006, 01:21 PM
I agree about Corey heading down the ladder.

Of Brady's picks this year, IIRC, I believe at least 7 of them bounced off receivers' hands into the air. The one truly bad game he had this year was KC... he was air-mailing balls all over the place.

You're new here, so someone should explain to you a few things on QB's. First of all, all INT's are the QB's fault. Second, there is a second stat, interestingly entirely subjective, of passes that SHOULD HAVE been interceptions.

<headslap> What am I saying? These are only particular to Jake Plummer. In fact, I think you should amend your explanation of Brady's interceptions and just say they were Plummer's fault.

Carry on.

Bronco_Buster
01-11-2006, 01:30 PM
You're new here, so someone should explain to you a few things on QB's. First of all, all INT's are the QB's fault. Second, there is a second stat, interestingly entirely subjective, of passes that SHOULD HAVE been interceptions.

<headslap> What am I saying? These are only particular to Jake Plummer. In fact, I think you should amend your explanation of Brady's interceptions and just say they were Plummer's fault.

Carry on.

Brady 26 TD's 14 picks over 4,110 yards.
Plummer 18 TD's 7 picks and 3,336 yards.
Pretty comparable.

Who's shown the propensity to make the big mistakes when forced to make plays? NOT EVEN CLOSE

Who's led their team in second half Super Bowl winning drives? Thanks for playing we'll have a nice parting gift for you backstage...

Eldritch
01-11-2006, 01:37 PM
Brady 26 TD's 14 picks over 4,110 yards.
Plummer 18 TD's 7 picks and 3,336 yards.
Pretty comparable.

Who's shown the propensity to make the big mistakes when forced to make plays? NOT EVEN CLOSE

Who's led their team in second half Super Bowl winning drives? Thanks for playing we'll have a nice parting gift for you backstage...

Wow, I don't think you could have gotten this any more wrong. Besides, the post wasn't even for noobs and trolls. As to the parting gift, since you'll be shuffling off soon enough and I'll be staying, keep it for yourself.

You're funny...

Jared
01-11-2006, 01:42 PM
Brady 26 TD's 14 picks over 4,110 yards.
Plummer 18 TD's 7 picks and 3,336 yards.
Pretty comparable.

Who's shown the propensity to make the big mistakes when forced to make plays? NOT EVEN CLOSE

Who's led their team in second half Super Bowl winning drives? Thanks for playing we'll have a nice parting gift for you backstage...


Uh yeah, the post you are responding to isn't even a swipe at Brady, but a subtle dig at the posters here who blame Plummer for INTS when they hit the numbers and bounce (which is something oldrover was talking about regarding Brady).


You would have had to have been here after last season's San Diego game.

Some Bronco fans basically believe that they win in spite of Plummer, even when he has a good game.

It's kinda of touchy subject among our members.

husky71
01-11-2006, 02:09 PM
Brady 26 TD's 14 picks over 4,110 yards.
Plummer 18 TD's 7 picks and 3,336 yards.
Pretty comparable.

Who's shown the propensity to make the big mistakes when forced to make plays? NOT EVEN CLOSE

In order to compare such stats (td's, picks and # of yards) one also has to look at the # of pass attempts from which these stats are determined.

Regular Season Only:
TB was 334 of 530 for a % completion of 63.0. He had 28 TDs for a 4.09TD% and had 14 INTs for a 14 INTs for a 2.6INT%
Plummer was 277 for 456 for a completion % of 61.0 He had 18 TDs for a 3.9TD% and had 7 INTs for a 1.5INT%

I won't disagree that TB has more INTs for total attempts but overall neither QB has a decided advantage here. Now, it's playoff time and stats can be tossed out the window but if one decides to use the 2005 season statistics for a comparison let's do it right.

SwampFoot
01-11-2006, 02:12 PM
Of Brady's picks this year, IIRC, I believe at least 7 of them bounced off receivers' hands into the air.

Did anyone catch Brady's first pass in the Jacksonville game that nailed a ref in the head ? I thought I was watching "The Longest Yard" starring Tom Brady. LOL. If a Jaguar would have intercepted that off a ref-deflection, that woulld have to go down in history as the ugliest interception ever thrown. NFL Films would give it a nickname like "The Referee Ricochet". :goofy:

diesel51
01-11-2006, 02:26 PM
Daggum it guys! Don't smack my topic!!!! :P

Now, sorry about leaving ya'll hangin. Back to my orignal statement.


Offense:

Den- WR/TE: Rod Smith is still Mr. Reliable, although I do believe his age is beginning to show. However, he hasn't let us down yet. Ashley, although the numbers may not bear it out, does seem to be having a better overall year. I also think his confidence is sky, dare I say MILE, high right now. He is obviously becoming a more rounded player. Adams and Devoe are solid and could catch people napping. Our TEs seem to have been a strength for us. Putz is very capable of having a great game, but when he takes those hits that he seems to be a magnet for, he needs to hold onto the ball better(don't want no fumble controversy in this game). Alexander has proven to be very solid in both the passing and running game. And, although I don't know if he will get any playing time in a major playoff game, Duke is a mismatch in the making.

NE- WR/TE: A very unselfish group who have as much talent as any WR group save maybe Arizona, Cin, and Indy. Givens and Troy Brown are a very nice combination who rarely make mistakes. Watson is a nice up and coming TE, with Furia(msp) as a solid blocker and reciever. Throw in San Diego's old WR(sorry can't remember his name), and they have a very solid set of recievers and tight ends.

ADVANTAGE- Den(based on Lelie's ability to make the big play; otherwise even)

Den- OL: Denver's offensive line is, if not one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, than one of the best at doing what they are supposed to do. They are very disciplined in the running game making few mistakes, and thankfully have not suffered many injuries so have had a very efficient season. They don't give up very many sacks and rarely miss assignments. Thanks to the type of offense we run, they don't have to block for long(usually) in passing situations.

NE- OL: New England's offense line struggled at the beginning of the year(if memory serves me well), but they have gotten better as the year has progressed. Earlier in the year they seemed to allow alot of pressure, made mental mistakes, and missed assignments, but improvement has been seen. That being said, with the emergence of the Patriots' defense in the second half of the season, I honestly believe that the OL is the Patriots's weakest link.

ADVANTAGE- Den

Tailgater
01-11-2006, 02:49 PM
Daggum it guys! Don't smack my topic!!!! :P

Now, sorry about leaving ya'll hangin. Back to my orignal statement.


Offense:

Den- WR/TE: Rod Smith is still Mr. Reliable, although I do believe his age is beginning to show. However, he hasn't let us down yet. Ashley, although the numbers may not bear it out, does seem to be having a better overall year. I also think his confidence is sky, dare I say MILE, high right now. He is obviously becoming a more rounded player. Adams and Devoe are solid and could catch people napping. Our TEs seem to have been a strength for us. Putz is very capable of having a great game, but when he takes those hits that he seems to be a magnet for, he needs to hold onto the ball better(don't want no fumble controversy in this game). Alexander has proven to be very solid in both the passing and running game. And, although I don't know if he will get any playing time in a major playoff game, Duke is a mismatch in the making.

NE- WR/TE: A very unselfish group who have as much talent as any WR group save maybe Arizona, Cin, and Indy. Givens and Troy Brown are a very nice combination who rarely make mistakes. Watson is a nice up and coming TE, with Furia(msp) as a solid blocker and reciever. Throw in San Diego's old WR(sorry can't remember his name), and they have a very solid set of recievers and tight ends.

ADVANTAGE- Den(based on Lelie's ability to make the big play; otherwise even)

Den- OL: Denver's offensive line is, if not one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, than one of the best at doing what they are supposed to do. They are very disciplined in the running game making few mistakes, and thankfully have not suffered many injuries so have had a very efficient season. They don't give up very many sacks and rarely miss assignments. Thanks to the type of offense we run, they don't have to block for long(usually) in passing situations.

NE- OL: New England's offense line struggled at the beginning of the year(if memory serves me well), but they have gotten better as the year has progressed. Earlier in the year they seemed to allow alot of pressure, made mental mistakes, and missed assignments, but improvement has been seen. That being said, with the emergence of the Patriots' defense in the second half of the season, I honestly believe that the OL is the Patriots's weakest link.

ADVANTAGE- Den

I agree that Denver's OL is better than the Pats OL, but both will be effective this weekend. A more realistic matchup would be OL vs DL. I think the Pats compare favorably then.

As to receivers, Pats have Branch, Givens, Davis, Brown, Dwight and Johnson. Branch, Davis, and Johnson are all deep threats. Also, Daniel Graham, the actual #1 TE was missing from the list. He's finally healthy and he and Watson make up the best TE tandem in the league, IMO.

With Brady throwing to them? Advantage Pats.

diesel51
01-11-2006, 03:16 PM
Now, let us take a look at the defense.
This will be somewhat more difficult since we run a 4-3 and ya'll run a 3-4.

Defense:


Den- DL: This has been the most fought about department on our boards(except Plummer). I believe we do have a much better DL than last year, even if our sack totals don't add up. The defensive front four, whoever has been in there, has gotten good pressure all year long on almost all of our opponents. We had success against NE as well(if I remember well). They also have been very stout against the run, having the best rush defense of the remaining playoff teams.

NE- DL: Wilfolk is emerging as a good defensive lineman and since the return of Seymour, New England's defense has been vastly improved, especially agaisnt the run. New England's defense is definitely not going to be the same defense we faced in October.

ADVANTAGE: Den(Based on overall performance and depth)

Den- LB: With Wilson, Gold, and Williams, we absolutely have the fastest 3 LBs in the league. Compared to any team that runs the 4-3, our LBs are by far the best. This is easily the strongest link of our team. Wilson is a great MLB, the heart and soul of our D, Gold is our playmaker, and DJ gets little respect for what he is capable of doing. We can definitely rely on this group as Bronco fans.

NE- LB: With the recent changes made to the LB corp, thanks to the return of Bruschi, NE is back to their reputed LB form. This group of LBs will make very few mistakes. Bruschi is the heart and soul of this defense, and makes every body on his team, especially the LBs, better. They do a good job at blitzing and sliding by blockers to get the tackles.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN(Homerism makes me want to choose Den, but I respect NE's LBs)

Den- CB/S: Champ Bailey is the PRIMEIRE Corner in the League. He covers, he gets picks, and probably most respected by Denverites, he TACKLES. Darrent Williams and Foxworth give me much hope for the next 10 years or so(hopefully). Our corners rarely blow their assignments, they all have great speed, and they all tackle. Our safties, while not spectacular, have also played very well this year. The mistakes have been few and far between. Lynch has obviously lost a step, but still can knock you into next week. Fergie has played better in my opinion.

NE- CB/S: With the emergence of the front seven, this group has been able to hide their shortcomings better. They still are a pretty good group as of late though. One thing they do well is tackle, but they do seem susceptable to the long pass. The safties are playing better as well, but not having Rodney could hurt them in the long run.

ADVANTAGE: Den

diesel51
01-11-2006, 03:30 PM
Now a quick look at Special Teams.


Den- K/P: Elam has had a solid year, but down from the past couple of years. His leg isn't as strong as it used to be, but still one of the better kickers in the NFL. Saurabaun has been a very nice addition for us. Consistently gets our defense in a good situation and our offense out of trouble.

NE- K/P: Vinitari is the best kicker in the NFL. He is to the Patriots what Elam was for us in the 90s. I don't know enough about your punter to even make a comment here, so someone else can provide information on that if needed.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN(that's what having Vinitari will do for you; I don't know squat about your punter, but I'm willing to put ya'll par with ours)

Den- KR/PR: Darrent Williams has potential, but has yet to break a long one(save that return that was brought back on a bogus penalty; see Neb bowl game). Adams is a solid returner, and if needed, Rod is a dangerous returner.

NE- KR/PR: With Dwight as a returner, New England always has the potential to break a long return both as a kick returner and punt returner.

ADVANTAGE: NE

diesel51
01-11-2006, 03:32 PM
Okay, I gotta go back to work, so tommorow I will come back with more analysis and to read your responses.


Again, like this all matters anyways.