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View Full Version : OhNo's Pre-Combine Mock Draft Part One (1-10)



OhNoKoolAid
01-11-2006, 06:58 PM
Before I begin, I’d like to preface this by saying that I’ve not been a major fan of doing a mock draft in the past, mostly because I don’t think I can do opposing teams justice in sufficiently addressing team needs for not only the present, but the future. Simply put, I just don’t follow the Browns close enough to know how they will handle restricted free agent Antonio Bryant, nor do I pretend to know which major free agent (Peterson, Carter or Smith) the 49ers will bring back into the fold. For this reason, I am presenting this early mock draft primarily for entertainment purposes, as a means to elevate the draft discussion to a grand scale including the entire league. Now, this doesn’t mean that this draft lacks insight or valid arguments for or against selections or players, the ratio may be tilted towards entertainment 60:40, but every selection is made in what I’ve concluded to be the best fit, or in the direction that I’ve perceived the team will take. This mock also takes into consideration the values that have been placed on these players at this point, all of which subjects to change following the Senior Bowl, combine and individual workouts. All players are at roughly their present value unless I state otherwise. I also include no trades in my mock draft, because I believe there’s already too much speculation in determining the picks. Now I say this not as an excuse or deflection for any criticism, but so that you may see the direction I took in making this. By all means, if you disagree with any selection, I would expect you to comment on it. If you’re a Chiefs fan and you don’t see my selection as having the team’s best interest in mind, let everyone know. I make no apologies, so feel free to nitpick any detail. I’ve also split this draft into three parts to separate and simplify discussion, and for ease in reading. Finally, I hope you find this mock draft to not only be entertaining but informative, and I look forward to the discussion this draft may bring.

1. Houston Texans-
If you’ve read any of my recent discussions, than you already know where I stand regarding the Texans and trading out. While I’m aware of the Texans’ troubles along the offensive line, I believe the depth is sufficient enough that Houston can still nab a first round caliber offensive tackle at the start of round two. With roughly eight tackles potentially receiving first round grades, close to half could be available when the Texans pick again. Houston has also made it known that they intend to pick up Carr’s option and still see him as their guy now and in the future. Regardless of my opinion of David Carr, I can only assume Carr will be around next season, making any notion of selection Young or Leinart foolish. Most likely, Ferguson is number two on their draft board anyways, but again the depth at tackle… The pick has to be Bush for several reasons; one being that he immediately gives the Texans’ name legitimacy. Drafting Bush will produce what I call the LaBron Effect; Bush’s appeal will not only attract ticket/merchandise/advertising sales, he will attract big ticket free agents interested in building the Texans alongside Bush. To me, this selection is easy…
Houston selects Reggie Bush, RB, USC

2. New Orleans Saints-
Like the Texans’ commentary, this should not be surprising. The Saints are first and foremost desperate for a coaching staff that will work to turn this team’s potential into performance. On paper, the Saints should be competitive, but the team too a step backwards, and its strongest unit, the defensive line, took a major step backwards. The Saints are also not very deep, especially in the defensive back seven. Nevertheless, they are fairly young, and with Horn, Stallworth, Henderson and McAllister, the Saints have the offensive firepower to compete. What they’ve lacked is a distributor at the quarterback position capable of utilizing all of the weapons in a sufficient manner. Luckily for the Saints, Matt Leinart has handled this very act for three years. The Saints will love Matt Leinart because he is everything Aaron Brooks isn’t; consistent, calm under pressure, intelligent in the pocket, passionate about winning, a proven leader. Young may have more upside, but he also carries more risk and may be seen as Aaron Brooks redux. The Saints just need a guy to get the ball to their playmakers in space without making too many mistakes.
New Orleans selects Matt Leinart, QB, USC

3. Tennessee Titans-
The Titans may be in the worst shape of any team in the NFL. None of their young prospects appear to be stars in the making and the team is still cap strapped. The defense is fairly well put together, and they hope to retain pleasant Surprise Kyle Vanden Bosch along the front of the line while guys like LaBoy, Starks and Odom continue to develop. Their offensive situation may be the opposite of New Orleans. While Bennett may be a solid number two receiver, he’s flanked by several young players whose future remain clouded by bouts of inconsistency and inexperience (Calico, Roby, Jones.) The team may also eventually take a mulligan at running back, where Chris Brown has flashed the ability to run hard, fumble and get hurt, three characteristics reminiscent of his time at Colorado. While it may force a decision and subsequent move of Billy Volek, Vince Young’s talent will be hard to pass up. Young’s skill set does not require elite playmakers surrounding him, he just needs a capable running game, a reliable tight end and speed at receiver, and in Tennessee he has all three. Troupe could be Young’s Crumpler, and the two would make a lethal combo. Young’s connection to Steve McNair as a mentor just adds to the plausibility of this pick.
Tennessee selects Vince Young, QB, Texas

4. New York Jets-
The Jets are a real wildcard without a system in place. Before Edwards’ departure, it sounded as if the team would retain Chad Pennington while bringing in a backup they would be comfortable with playing an entire season. With Bradway remaining as the general manager, I assume that plan still stands at the moment. This isn’t to say the Jets wouldn’t have an interest in either Leinart or Young if either was to fall to them. The Jets also could trade in both directions. Trading up could be for either Bush or Leinart, but you have to look at the cost of a trade, the cap ramifications of letting Pennington go and adding the number one overall pick, and the lost selections that could be used to fill holes. The Jets may also look to trade down to add picks and save money, which may be necessary to keep the talent in place. Decisions will need to be made regarding both Law and Abraham, who both played well enough to be a part of the Jets plans, but may be cost prohibitive. The Jets, of course could also keep the pick and address another key area. In a perfect world, one of the running backs not named Bush would receive a value high enough to justify taking here, but I don’t see that at the moment. D’Brickashaw Ferguson would be a safe pick because he’s not only talented enough to warrant a high pick, but it would allow Adrian Jones time to develop more while providing depth for a shallow offensive line. If Abraham in fact departs, Mario Williams would fit here as well. The Jets are just too hard to speculate on at this point
New York (A) selects D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia

5. Green Bay Packers-
Another team with several decisions to make leading up to the draft, the one that means little in regards to its immediate needs is Favre’s announcement. Whether he stays or retires, Green Bay will continue to plan with the future in mind. On offense, the Packers just need to get healthy. Walker’s possible return would boost the receiving core, and whichever back they decide to retain should satisfy the running game. The team has needs along the offensive line that likely will be addressed in free agency and the middle rounds. The pick will likely be used to address the defense, especially if Bates does in fact become the head coach. In a different year, Mario Williams may be the second player selected, but it’s hard to see what more
Williams could do at the college level. He played the last half of the season at 100% intensity, and erased many concerns regarding his consistency. Whether Green Bay retains Kampman or not, Williams is a good fit. With his ability to move inside on passing downs, the team could return Gbaja Biamila to a pass-rushing role, improving the unit’s ability to play the run by not having Kabeer in on every down. If Kampman departs, Williams could start on the left side right now, and the Packers would be rewarded with the compensation picks of loosing a restricted free agent.
Green Bay selects Mario Williams, DE, NC State

OhNoKoolAid
01-11-2006, 06:59 PM
6. Oakland Raiders-
Yet another rudderless team whose needs could drastically change with a new regime. Unlike the previous two, the Raiders are a little easier to project based on the talent in place. As usual, Collins played up to his ability but again was criticized for underachieving; if you looked up career underachiever in the dictionary, you’d see COLLINS listed as a synonym. That’s isn’t necessary fair for Kerry, but his skill set has always been a tease. If Walter was available in this draft, he may be the third quarterback off the board, and it is for this reason that I don’t see the Raiders targeting a QB early, unless Davis fancies Young’s athleticism. Oakland would also pounce on Mario Williams if available, which hopefully, he isn’t. As it stands, A.J. Hawk would be the perfect complement for Morrison at linebacker. Morrison looks like a solid middle linebacker in the Randall Godfrey mold (good run defender, not a great playmaker). Hawk would allow Clark to slide to the strong side and give the Raiders a young core to its defense. Hawk has the athleticism, temperament, and appearance of a Raider that the two were almost made for each other.
Oakland selects A.J. Hawk, OLB, Ohio State

7. San Francisco 49ers-
From what I can tell, the 49ers could be losing both outside linebackers and its most talented corner (who only played three games), so there are plenty of needs to address. This team may be the least talented team in the league to boot, when you take depth into consideration. The 49ers have so many areas it could improve that it cannot afford to move up. On offense, they can live with Gore, but you have to imagine his injury history may limit his potential and longevity. I still don’t see a running back worth this high a pick outside of Bush. Wide receiver needs a facelift, but again, nobody’s available. The pick then turns to defense, and I’d love to put Manny Lawson here because I think he could skyrocket after the combine with his measurables as a rush linebacker. Hali may be rated this high, but to be honest, he needs to show me his athleticism is good enough for the linebacker position. Hali could very well run a 4.9 at the combine based on spring early fall estimates. I think this pick may come down to one of the two, but their value is to fluid, so I’ll go with another safe pick. I’m not sure Williams will be a great corner, but I think he could be a Gary Baxter-type physical corner, and this team is woefully weak in the secondary.
San Francisco selects Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech

8. Buffalo Bills-
Marv Levy has to love the position this team is in on draft day. The team has depth in several areas and should return a healthy defense will again be a force with Takeo Spikes, the most under appreciated linebacker in football. On offense, Levy and Wilson can do very little about the major sore spot, quarterback. The team will simply have to wait out J.P. Losman’s development (if any, but my opinion won’t change their decision making). Moulds is likely to depart, but again, receiver may not be a viable option within the top ten, and its best player, Holmes, is too similar to Buffalo’s top returning receiver Lee Evans. The Bills will also welcome Kevin Everett into the fold after being lost in training camp. The easiest issue to handle on draft day will be the offensive line, where several different players can fill an opening at tackle. For now, Marcus McNeill or Winston Justice will battle for the bidding of second best, but Eric Winston could factor into the equation by draft day. Justice has yet to declare, but all signs point to him jumping ship. His skill set best fits the left side, but he’s been a right tackle due to Leinart’s left-handedness. This may work in Justice’s favor, as he will likely start on the right side anyways, and will be used to the stance and technique on that side.
Buffalo selects Winston Justice, OT, USC

9. Detroit Lions-
Detroit brass will stumble over themselves if Santonio Holmes is still available… In all seriousness, who does Matt Millen still have a job? The man has single-handedly buried this franchise with shoddy draft decision-making and questionable free agent moves. The Lions have poor depth on almost every unit not selected in the first round in the last three years, which leaves only wide receiver. The defensive line looks impressive, but its efforts are wasted by a lack of effort and a poor back seven. Yet somehow, Millen hasn’t been given enough time to ruin this organization. Millen’s likely coaching choice will be Russ Grimm; an offensive line coach that will bring more discipline, toughness, grit and clichés to a team that really needs intelligent decision makers in the personnel department. Grimm may be a quality candidate, but it is so typical for Millen to bring in a line coach to head his team because of the perceived toughness one brings to the team. I can honestly say I wish no positive outcomes for this team next year. You cannot expect this group to make the right decision on draft day, so I’ll give them Cutler, which is too bad, because I actually like Jay…as a second rounder.
Detroit selects Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt

10. Arizona Cardinals-
At what point does Denny Green come under fire for failing to produce with above average talent? Arizona will make a big splash in 2006 when it opens its new Glendale resort…err…stadium. The excitement around the stadium may attract a few free agents and ticket sales should be high, so next year will be Green’s put up or shut up season. The defense just needs better health and consistency. The secondary needs an upgrade, but Rolle showed enough in his brief debut that he should be a solid starter in time. The unit also features young talents like Dansby, Dockett (who suffered a sophomore slump) and Adrian Wilson. The offense is loaded with playmakers in the receiving game, but the running game was ultimately this team’s undoing. Arrington came in to the season over-hyped, and proved to be a third down back at best. The Cardinals could look to offensive tackle in the first, moving Leonard Davis back inside, but I imagine the Cardinals will also look to take advantage of this draft’s line depth and stock up in the middle rounds. At this point, I like DeAngelo Williams more than both White and Maroney because of the total package he represents. He’s a thicker version of Cadillac Williams and he should be able to contribute in the running game and as an outlet receiver.
Arizona selects DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis

all DENVER
01-11-2006, 07:00 PM
WHOA! nice looooooooooooooooong read, bush is gonna with texans

all DENVER
01-11-2006, 07:01 PM
do/did u kno tatum bell? just curious

OhNoKoolAid
01-11-2006, 07:13 PM
do/did u kno tatum bell? just curious

No I don't. I came to Oklahoma State during the spring semester last year, and I'm sure he was using that time to prepare for the draft. I have a friend in the athletic department (marketing) who has met with most of the players, and now works for the OKC Hornets as an intern and gets to attend all the team parties.

At Oklahoma I did have classes with Johnnie Gilbert and Kevin Bookout, two Oklahoma basketball players...

PsychoChicken
01-11-2006, 07:55 PM
I love this mock so far. Sadly (nothing against you, but I can't help but wonder why "expert" drafts aren't this good), it could very well be the best one on the web so far, though that's just because I happen to completely agree on you with picks 1-8. Those are exactly the players I have on my current mock (I won't be posting a mock until March, though). Though for arguments sake, what would you think of Haloti Ngata going at #8? Sam Adams is aging and Tim Anderson is average and can be upgraded.

Now the other two, starting with the Lions. Are you giving them Cutler due to Millen's obvious ridiculous incompetence, or do you believe that Cutler will jump to mid-1st round status, thus making it a somewhat justifiable value pick on Millen's behalf?

And at 10, I only disagree because I think LenDale White will be the pick. White is the bruising tailback they so desparately need, especially in the red zone, and his durability is unquestionable unlike Williams'. Also, when it comes to scouting players in general, I tend to dislike players who do everything good and not one thing great. I prefer players who do most things above average and one thing extremely well. Williams is the former. White is the latter. Anyways, it's pretty obvious that they need a running back and the only real question is which of them between White, Williams, and Maroney it will be.

OhNoKoolAid
01-11-2006, 08:07 PM
I love this mock so far. Sadly (nothing against you, but I can't help but wonder why "expert" drafts aren't this good), it could very well be the best one on the web so far, though that's just because I happen to completely agree on you with picks 1-8. Those are exactly the players I have on my current mock (I won't be posting a mock until March, though). Though for arguments sake, what would you think of Haloti Ngata going at #8? Sam Adams is aging and Tim Anderson is average and can be upgraded.

Now the other two, starting with the Lions. Are you giving them Cutler due to Millen's obvious ridiculous incompetence, or do you believe that Cutler will jump to mid-1st round status, thus making it a somewhat justifiable value pick on Millen's behalf?

And at 10, I only disagree because I think LenDale White will be the pick. White is the bruising tailback they so desparately need, especially in the red zone, and his durability is unquestionable unlike Williams'. Also, when it comes to scouting players in general, I tend to dislike players who do everything good and not one thing great. I prefer players who do most things above average and one thing extremely well. Williams is the former. White is the latter. Anyways, it's pretty obvious that they need a running back and the only real question is which of them between White, Williams, and Maroney it will be.

I could see Ngata going to Buffalo quite easily. I believe Aaron Schoebel is also a free agent, and a right end could be targeted here as well, with Hali fitting their system more than Kiwanuka. I just saw the struggles Buffalo had all season, eventually leading to the collapse of the running game in the second half of the season.

I put Cutler in that spot for both reasons. At this point, Cutler is a first rounder in several scouts book, and I think the need of quarterbacks overinflates the value of players like Cutler, who have stellar intangibles. Ideally, Cutler is selected at the top of round two, like Charlie Frye last season. Unless, they address the position in free agency with a guy like Kitna, Cutler could be thier guy. Despite Millen's boneheaded signing of Pollard last season, Vernon Davis could be valued here.

On point three, it's tomato-tomato at this point. I could see White in Arizona just as easily as I could see Williams.

JoRo
01-11-2006, 08:20 PM
Great job so far, only one problem

KEEP GOING GRR!

OhNoKoolAid
01-11-2006, 08:22 PM
Great job so far, only one problem

KEEP GOING GRR!

Oh it's done, I'm just letting the first part simmer...

jletourneau
01-11-2006, 08:29 PM
Great job Ohno, keep it up. :beer:

Always enjoy good draft fodder!

WABronco
01-11-2006, 09:30 PM
Oh it's done, I'm just letting the first part simmer...

damnit...

The anticipation is killing me!! I must know who the Broncos will take...I MUST!

WABronco
01-11-2006, 09:33 PM
On point three, it's tomato-tomato at this point. I could see White in Arizona just as easily as I could see Williams.

If Arizona was somehow happy with Arrington, who did show something at the end of the year, who else do you see them targeting?

Maybe an LT or D-lineman? QB?

OhNoKoolAid
01-12-2006, 08:21 AM
If Arizona was somehow happy with Arrington, who did show something at the end of the year, who else do you see them targeting?

Maybe an LT or D-lineman? QB?

I think Arizona could look along the offensive line and select a better pass blocker for the left side. This would allow Davis to return inside in time while adding depth to a depleted line. They too may have an interest in Ngata and also could target one of the linebackers, since Blackstock was a major dissapointment. With the values of players in flux right now, it's a little more difficult determining exactly which players will be take over others.

MindField
01-12-2006, 10:04 AM
The new rumor has the Texans trading David Carr to Miami for Ricky Williams and a third round Draft choice, allowing the Texans to take home town hero Vince Young with the first pick...

I also think Ngata will wind up with Oakland, that is an Al Davis pick if ever I saw one.

So I will go:

1) Houston QB V Young
2) New Orleans RB R Bush
3) Tennessee QB M Leinart (Re-united with Norm Chow? Hmmmmm)
4) NY Jest RB LenDale White
5) Green Bay CB J Williams
6) Oakland DT H Ngata
7) San Fran DE M Williams
8) Buffalo OT D'Brick
9) Detroit OLB AJ Hawk
10) Arizona RB D Williams

myoung
01-12-2006, 11:47 AM
thanks for the time spent OhNo this has caused some good discussion and thought on the topic. This is the time of the year that I live for

Here is my initial thought for the top 10


1- Houston Reggie Bush I don't see any way they pass on Bush. The pressure they are feeling for vince young locally will die down some by the draft and be long forgotten early next year as bush will make one big play while vince is sitting on a bench somewhere and all will be forgiven in houston town.

2- NO Matt Leinart - No brainer. They need a slinger to pass it out to their weapons. This is a huge pickup and makes Joe horn and dante's day.

3- Tennessee - Vince Young voleck will keep the seat warm for a year or two while Vince learns the game. I think McNair will fade because of the cap hit. Either way Tennessee is in such a bad cap situation they can't possibly compete for a couple of years. Vince will be more ready at that time and the rest of their young guys will have time grow up.

4- NY Jets - Jimmy Williams Law's option will not be picked up. I know the Offense is a big problem but they will wait and pick up a RB or OT early in round 2. These guys love to draft defensive players. If Bush, young, or Leinart is here I would expect them to take one but I dont see them taking Ferguson.

5- Green Bay - A.J. Hawk they need to stop the run and they need all kinds of help on D and it comes in a big way.

6- Oakland - Demarco Ryans - They also need help on D and this guy gives them big time potential at OLB.

7- San Fran - Ferguson - I am not really sure he falls this far but he gives the 49ers long term protection for Alex Smith.

8- Buffalo - Ngata is tempting, especially considering the inability to stop the run. But I think they go with Mario Williams.

9- Detroit - I actually think this is a potential trade down. I think they will like Cutler alot but not this early. I don't see them going QB this early. If they stay here I think it is to take Tamba Hali. I think they will go OT in round 2.

10- Arizona - Lendale White - I think Dennis Green will stay away from Williams because he already has the smallish back he needs. I think he is hoping that Arrington will be the poor mans lightning for White's thunder.


I will certainly be updating this as we learn more about players but this is my initial guess at it.

Charlie Brown
01-12-2006, 03:38 PM
Before I begin, I’d like to preface this by saying that I’ve not been a major fan of doing a mock draft in the past, mostly because I don’t think I can do opposing teams justice in sufficiently addressing team needs for not only the present, but the future. Simply put, I just don’t follow the Browns close enough to know how they will handle restricted free agent Antonio Bryant, nor do I pretend to know which major free agent (Peterson, Carter or Smith) the 49ers will bring back into the fold. For this reason, I am presenting this early mock draft primarily for entertainment purposes, as a means to elevate the draft discussion to a grand scale including the entire league. Now, this doesn’t mean that this draft lacks insight or valid arguments for or against selections or players, the ratio may be tilted towards entertainment 60:40, but every selection is made in what I’ve concluded to be the best fit, or in the direction that I’ve perceived the team will take. This mock also takes into consideration the values that have been placed on these players at this point, all of which subjects to change following the Senior Bowl, combine and individual workouts. All players are at roughly their present value unless I state otherwise. I also include no trades in my mock draft, because I believe there’s already too much speculation in determining the picks. Now I say this not as an excuse or deflection for any criticism, but so that you may see the direction I took in making this. By all means, if you disagree with any selection, I would expect you to comment on it. If you’re a Chiefs fan and you don’t see my selection as having the team’s best interest in mind, let everyone know. I make no apologies, so feel free to nitpick any detail. I’ve also split this draft into three parts to separate and simplify discussion, and for ease in reading. Finally, I hope you find this mock draft to not only be entertaining but informative, and I look forward to the discussion this draft may bring.

Is this explanation because of me? :D

OhNoKoolAid
01-12-2006, 09:34 PM
Is this explanation because of me? :D

Nope, I just used that Cleveland remark because I've been looking at potential free agent tip sheets, especially the wide receivers, and Bryant's situation is something I'm partly curious about, and fresh on my mind.

That said, it incompasses you because I do not spend the time following other teams, like the Browns, as fans of those teams do. I won't lie and say I didn't think of you along with others while typing that, because I know you frequent the draft board. I also weighed your previous comments when looking at Cleveland's plan of action in the draft, which you will see when I post part two...

Charlie Brown
01-12-2006, 10:05 PM
I also weighed your previous comments when looking at Cleveland's plan of action in the draft, which you will see when I post part two...

Ah, that's good :)

Hopefully you make a logical selection in your mock. If not I'll go easy on ya... I promise. If I disagree with the selection I'll state why as simply as I can ... or give you extreme praise if I agree with the selection.

OhNoKoolAid
01-12-2006, 10:11 PM
Ah, that's good :)

Hopefully you make a logical selection in your mock. If not I'll go easy on ya... I promise. If I disagree with the selection I'll state why as simply as I can ... or give you extreme praise if I agree with the selection.

You can tear it to pieces if you'd like, I'm interested in your honest input. If it's horrible, tear it to shreds, I'm okay with that.

OhNoKoolAid
01-12-2006, 10:17 PM
thanks for the time spent OhNo this has caused some good discussion and thought on the topic. This is the time of the year that I live for

Here is my initial thought for the top 10


1- Houston Reggie Bush I don't see any way they pass on Bush. The pressure they are feeling for vince young locally will die down some by the draft and be long forgotten early next year as bush will make one big play while vince is sitting on a bench somewhere and all will be forgiven in houston town.

2- NO Matt Leinart - No brainer. They need a slinger to pass it out to their weapons. This is a huge pickup and makes Joe horn and dante's day.

3- Tennessee - Vince Young voleck will keep the seat warm for a year or two while Vince learns the game. I think McNair will fade because of the cap hit. Either way Tennessee is in such a bad cap situation they can't possibly compete for a couple of years. Vince will be more ready at that time and the rest of their young guys will have time grow up.

4- NY Jets - Jimmy Williams Law's option will not be picked up. I know the Offense is a big problem but they will wait and pick up a RB or OT early in round 2. These guys love to draft defensive players. If Bush, young, or Leinart is here I would expect them to take one but I dont see them taking Ferguson.

5- Green Bay - A.J. Hawk they need to stop the run and they need all kinds of help on D and it comes in a big way.

6- Oakland - Demarco Ryans - They also need help on D and this guy gives them big time potential at OLB.

7- San Fran - Ferguson - I am not really sure he falls this far but he gives the 49ers long term protection for Alex Smith.

8- Buffalo - Ngata is tempting, especially considering the inability to stop the run. But I think they go with Mario Williams.

9- Detroit - I actually think this is a potential trade down. I think they will like Cutler alot but not this early. I don't see them going QB this early. If they stay here I think it is to take Tamba Hali. I think they will go OT in round 2.

10- Arizona - Lendale White - I think Dennis Green will stay away from Williams because he already has the smallish back he needs. I think he is hoping that Arrington will be the poor mans lightning for White's thunder.


I will certainly be updating this as we learn more about players but this is my initial guess at it.

I appreciate your comments and input, as well as your top ten list. Like you, I think finding player fits and values this early is largely guess work. As you'll see in part two, when I post it, I'm torn between taking certain players in several places, because the value lines are so blurry. For instance, what is the difference in value of Greenway and Ryans? Hali and Kiwanuka? It's hard to say without the close evaluation of the all star games and workouts.

I also forgot to mention that I tried to find every article I could on the underclassmen to see any mention of where players were told they'd fall in place by the draft commitee. Since this mock was based primarily on current vlaues, these clues provide a good glimpse to scouts current opinions of players. There are a couple of players I think will be high/mid first guys that currently aren't, but I can't say that with certainty without workout numbers, interview opinions, etc.

myoung
01-12-2006, 10:48 PM
I appreciate your comments and input, as well as your top ten list. Like you, I think finding player fits and values this early is largely guess work. As you'll see in part two, when I post it, I'm torn between taking certain players in several places, because the value lines are so blurry. For instance, what is the difference in value of Greenway and Ryans? Hali and Kiwanuka? It's hard to say without the close evaluation of the all star games and workouts.

I also forgot to mention that I tried to find every article I could on the underclassmen to see any mention of where players were told they'd fall in place by the draft commitee. Since this mock was based primarily on current vlaues, these clues provide a good glimpse to scouts current opinions of players. There are a couple of players I think will be high/mid first guys that currently aren't, but I can't say that with certainty without workout numbers, interview opinions, etc.

I couldn't agree with you more.

A couple of points on why I positioned players the way I did. My first real concern is Jimmy williams. I just don't see it when I watch him. But I am the first to admit that I also did not see it in Deangelo Hall. Until I see him run a slow 40 time or hear he did poorly I am going to leave him near the top of the draft. That is emphasized by the fact that he has no other player at his position really competing with him for the top spot which I think will make him a premium in the draft.

I agree with you on the Hali - Kiwi comparison. I almost went with Kiwi in the 8 spot. My concern is this. I watched his bowl game real closely because he was matched up with Colledge. As I suspected they moved kiwi over to the other side on most plays. He still got stoned most of the game with one on one blocking. He did not look good against Colledge and I thought Colledge actually improved his stock quite a bit in that game. Hali also got worked. But he seemed to me to be more schemed against. he seemed to be double teamed more and seemed to have guys chip more at him. In my mind they are close to a dead heat. the other item to consider is that Kiwi will grade very high in character tests. You can't help but be impressed by his background, work ethic, and morals. I think that will help his stock and in the end may make the difference.

I am not sure how big a fan of Cutler I am yet so I just couldn't put him in the top 10. But if he shows off in some workouts I am sure I could get on that bandwagon like everyone else seems to be.

OhNoKoolAid
01-12-2006, 11:42 PM
I couldn't agree with you more.

A couple of points on why I positioned players the way I did. My first real concern is Jimmy williams. I just don't see it when I watch him. But I am the first to admit that I also did not see it in Deangelo Hall. Until I see him run a slow 40 time or hear he did poorly I am going to leave him near the top of the draft. That is emphasized by the fact that he has no other player at his position really competing with him for the top spot which I think will make him a premium in the draft.

I agree with you on the Hali - Kiwi comparison. I almost went with Kiwi in the 8 spot. My concern is this. I watched his bowl game real closely because he was matched up with Colledge. As I suspected they moved kiwi over to the other side on most plays. He still got stoned most of the game with one on one blocking. He did not look good against Colledge and I thought Colledge actually improved his stock quite a bit in that game. Hali also got worked. But he seemed to me to be more schemed against. he seemed to be double teamed more and seemed to have guys chip more at him. In my mind they are close to a dead heat. the other item to consider is that Kiwi will grade very high in character tests. You can't help but be impressed by his background, work ethic, and morals. I think that will help his stock and in the end may make the difference.

I am not sure how big a fan of Cutler I am yet so I just couldn't put him in the top 10. But if he shows off in some workouts I am sure I could get on that bandwagon like everyone else seems to be.

I don't like Williams much either. You can get away with just being physical in college, because of their lack of emphasis in downfield contact, but it may take the right scheme for him to be as good in the pros. I don't like his fit with the old New York Jets, because he breaks on balls slow and doesn't recover quickly, which would be murder in the cover two. At this point, it's anybody's guess what type of defense New York runs next year, and I heard Donnie Henderson won't be back.

As far as Kiwi moving around a lot, he's done that all year. He's primarily been a left end, which is a trend in college football. More playmaking ends and linebackers this year are left ends or Sam 'backers in college, because their athleticism allows them to get away with it. I don't expect to see this trend move into the pros anytime soon.

As for Cutler, I'm not sold on him being a first rounder, but supply and demand makes Cutler the third best QB prospect in the draft at this point. I also lack any trust in the Detroit front office to make the right decision here, which is why I can see Cutler in the top ten easily right now.

The|Snake#16
01-13-2006, 12:11 AM
The new rumor has the Texans trading David Carr to Miami for Ricky Williams and a third round Draft choice, allowing the Texans to take home town hero Vince Young with the first pick...

I also think Ngata will wind up with Oakland, that is an Al Davis pick if ever I saw one.

So I will go:

1) Houston QB V Young
2) New Orleans RB R Bush
3) Tennessee QB M Leinart (Re-united with Norm Chow? Hmmmmm)
4) NY Jest RB LenDale White
5) Green Bay CB J Williams
6) Oakland DT H Ngata
7) San Fran DE M Williams
8) Buffalo OT D'Brick
9) Detroit OLB AJ Hawk
10) Arizona RB D Williams

Houston is going bush, there is no doubt in my mind, and David Carr is going to be their QB, they don't need a 3 year project, they need instant results, Reggie being the latter.

New Orleans has no need for Bush, they have Deuce, who is an elite back. What they do need is a QB, and I expect them to go for Leinart or Young, however I worry about which QB goes here. In my opinion it is a better situation to have a veteran or starting calibur QB on your team when you draft a rookie, you can turn a great QB with a lot of potential to a bust by throwing them into the starting role so soon. Look at Carson, he studied from the sidelines, and that mixed with his talent really molded him well. Then look at players like JP Losman and you've got to wonder why they were thrown into the job so soon, especially when he could've sat under Holcome for a while.

_____________________________________________

I really agree with most of your mock Koolaid, and it is very well thought out. However, a big concern in AZ is not only the lack of a running game, but at the QB. They have a good scenario going if they can keep warner and sit a rookie QB under him. I agree they should first address the running game, but do you think that with the QB-lacking teams getting Young, Leinart, Cutler etc they could have a shot at Omar Jacobs? I know it'd be a steal, but it's a possibility, maybe even trade down. While it'd be great, I really think the Dolphins might consider him, nothing to back that up, but they need a QB and a mid first rounder would be a good spot to take him.


Looking forward to part 2. :beer:

BroncoRT
01-13-2006, 07:07 AM
10- Arizona - Lendale White - I think Dennis Green will stay away from Williams because he already has the smallish back he needs. I think he is hoping that Arrington will be the poor mans lightning for White's thunder.

.


I think Arizona will draft Lendale White also or they might select OT in Jon Scott, Marcus McNeil or Eric Winston. There are many OT's in this draft so I think they will grab a stud punishing RB in White over Deangelo in the first and select an OT in the second round.

BroncoRT
01-13-2006, 07:15 AM
[QUOTE=OhNoKoolAid

4. New York Jets-
The Jets are a real wildcard without a system in place. Before Edwards’ departure, it sounded as if the team would retain Chad Pennington while bringing in a backup they would be comfortable with playing an entire season. With Bradway remaining as the general manager, I assume that plan still stands at the moment. This isn’t to say the Jets wouldn’t have an interest in either Leinart or Young if either was to fall to them. The Jets also could trade in both directions. Trading up could be for either Bush or Leinart, but you have to look at the cost of a trade, the cap ramifications of letting Pennington go and adding the number one overall pick, and the lost selections that could be used to fill holes. The Jets may also look to trade down to add picks and save money, which may be necessary to keep the talent in place. Decisions will need to be made regarding both Law and Abraham, who both played well enough to be a part of the Jets plans, but may be cost prohibitive. The Jets, of course could also keep the pick and address another key area. In a perfect world, one of the running backs not named Bush would receive a value high enough to justify taking here, but I don’t see that at the moment. D’Brickashaw Ferguson would be a safe pick because he’s not only talented enough to warrant a high pick, but it would allow Adrian Jones time to develop more while providing depth for a shallow offensive line. If Abraham in fact departs, Mario Williams would fit here as well. The Jets are just too hard to speculate on at this point
New York (A) selects D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia




I think they are going to grab Deangelo Williams for RB if they can't trade up for either Vince Young or Leinart. They are going to make a big push for either QB. Remember they are in the Big Apple so they need to make a splash and make headlines to keep up with Eli and the Giants. Ferguson doesn't do that. Grabbing Leinart or Young would do that and Football in New York would be fun and make $$$$ .

Perry1977
01-13-2006, 07:23 AM
Great job Ohno, your speculations and reasoning prettymuch match mine for the first few picks, until Green Bay. CPs inc!!!!!! :beer:

Mat'hir Uth Gan
01-14-2006, 06:39 AM
Very nice analysis.

1. Agree. Ownership has already stated they are drafting Reggie Bush.

2. Agree. I concur that the Saints will be hesitant to draft another running black QB after Brooks. I think a pure pocket passer might be a fresh air.

3. Agree. Perfect situation with McNair to teach.

4. Disagree. I think they take Mario Williams to replace John Abraham.

5. Disagree. Kampman will be resigned, KGB is under contract long term. They are losing Grady Jackson, I think they take Ngata to replace him.

6. Agree. AJ Hawk fits here, though its so early for a LB. If Mario Williams were available, he'd be the pick. Jimmy Williams as a safety makes sense too.

7. Agree. But they don't need CB help, they need safety/nickel help. So, this is Williams as a safety or Huff if they prefer him.

8. Disagree. Only because Ferguson is still available.

9. Disagree. Only because Justice is still available.

10. Disagree. Green loves Arrington and the only way they take a RB is if they take a big bruiser like White. Williams and Arrington are the same size/type RB. I think they'd prefer Ngata or Justice, but if both are gone, I think then they look at Cutler, Davis, Ryans, or McNeil if his back checks out.



Its so hard to predict a mock before FA shakes out. If you're off on one top 10 pick, the entire first round gets goofed up.

Skywalker
01-14-2006, 09:03 AM
I think the Packers will take AJ Hawk.

Mat'hir Uth Gan
01-14-2006, 12:40 PM
I think the Packers will take AJ Hawk.

AJ Hawk is not as good as Derrick Johnson from last season, and Johnson was projected as a top 5 pick that fell to the early teens. Linebacker is just not a good value in the top 10 because the difference b/n the best and a top 2nd round pick is so minimal at that position.

Top 10 positions are generally playmakers at RB, WR, QB, LT, CB, DE and DT. D-line players are probably the most glaring b/n the top guy and an early 2nd round pick.


For that reason, and that reason alone, I think Ngata holds higher value then AJ Hawk. Plus, without a good NT, any LB is going to have problems. It would be counterproductive to lose your best clogger in Grady Jackson and not replace him with the best NT in the last decade.

jletourneau
01-14-2006, 02:28 PM
Very nice analysis.

10. Disagree. Green loves Arrington and the only way they take a RB is if they take a big bruiser like White. Williams and Arrington are the same size/type RB. I think they'd prefer Ngata or Justice, but if both are gone, I think then they look at Cutler, Davis, Ryans, or McNeil if his back checks out.

Its so hard to predict a mock before FA shakes out. If you're off on one top 10 pick, the entire first round gets goofed up.

Not to say that Denny Green will take a RB in the 1st, but he is no longer completely sold on Arrington, so I'd say the phrase "loves Arrington" has probably run it's course.

There have been reports over the last month that Green and many others within the Cardinals, players included I believe, question Arrington's toughness (that's a big deal at RB), and his ability to carry the ball consistenly. They are starting to think he is at best a 3rd down back. I believe they still like his talent in a limited role, but I do believe he has STRONGLY fallen out of favor with Green.

However, I would agree with you that if Arizona had a choice between DeAngelo and LenDale, I would agree that I think Denny would lean towards LenDale and I think that would be a smart choice.

I will continue to say that I believe LenDale will be a better pro than he was a college player.

West
01-16-2006, 11:29 AM
Is this explanation because of me? :D
Nah man, it was because of me and my beliefs of D'Brickashaw Ferguson being Texan bound. But I ain't gunna open up that can of worms again. I like your mock OhNo, except for the whole Bush/Ferguson thing. But I rate it a 8.5/10. Very detailed!

My Mock:


1. Houston- Yes I think they should trade down and take Ferguson but the Texans have made it known that they will take Bush. So Bush here
2. Saints- Vince Young, no brainer, they need a face of the franchise, they need someone that can get the fans behind them again. Young is it.
3. Tennesee- They have many options here but since Norm Chow is the OC then of course they draft Leinhart even with the 2 deep QB depth in Tennessee
4. Jets- They miss out on Bush so I see them taking DeAngelo Williams here. He reminds me most of Curtis Martin out of any of the backs in the draft. Yes Jets will not resign Abraham and yes Williams is still on the board but IMO they will draft Eric Henderson DE GT in round 2 to fill that void
5. Green Bay- They have many options here as well. Its too early to take a safety IE Jimmy Williams, so I think they go Kiwiaunka.
6. Oakland- AJ Hawk, they traded away their best LB last year to Minnesota. So they need one. Doesn't Hawk look like a Raider?
7. Buffalo- Ngata, they let go of Pat Williams last year and they have a void to fill. Ngata will work very well in that 3-4 scheme.
8. San Fran- they need a RB. Williams and Bush are off the board so they pick LenDale White
9. Detriot- Could take Cutler but I think its too early for him at 9, Detriot DOESNOT PICK AN OFFENSIVE PLAYER ITS A MIRACLE!!!! Mario Williams is their pick.
10. Arizona- Arizona had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. They need a LB on the other side of Dansby. DeMeco Ryans is their pick.

myoung
01-16-2006, 11:48 AM
AJ Hawk is not as good as Derrick Johnson from last season, and Johnson was projected as a top 5 pick that fell to the early teens. Linebacker is just not a good value in the top 10 because the difference b/n the best and a top 2nd round pick is so minimal at that position.

Top 10 positions are generally playmakers at RB, WR, QB, LT, CB, DE and DT. D-line players are probably the most glaring b/n the top guy and an early 2nd round pick.


For that reason, and that reason alone, I think Ngata holds higher value then AJ Hawk. Plus, without a good NT, any LB is going to have problems. It would be counterproductive to lose your best clogger in Grady Jackson and not replace him with the best NT in the last decade.

I think some of this stuff comes and goes with trends. Last year's efforts of Thurman and Tatupu will raise the value of the LBs in this draft a little (IMO of course).

I do not agree that Derrick Johnson is better than AJ Hawk. I think Hawk will end up grading the same if not higher than Johnson. I never felt that Johnson carried a Defense he was just a great talent on very athletic Defense. AJ Hawk if a big time difference maker that I believe raises the value of the players around him. After I see his measurables my view of where he will be drafted may change but I think he is a definite top 10 this year.