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  • Thx! I'm going to go thru these. But the numbers I seem to recall from The US forecasts were mostly just over 100,000 earlier, and definitely less than 150,000, and at one point the prediction was around 60,000-80,000, though I don't remember if that was over a 6 month timeframe or a bit longer. I will dig up what I can.

    Comment


    • At the very beginning, when folks were panicking and wiping out the shelves in stores, MSM was running with this story.
      A link to ABC from one of the articles has been deleted. At first it was 2 million+, then the "models" dropped to 1 million,
      then 500K, then to 250K as time went on. Back in March, people heard 2 million and that's all it took; panic ensued.
      Articles said 2+ million deaths without any mitigation or preventive measures. Most folks don't read beyond the headline.
      Bet you still have a stockpile of toilet paper.

      May God Bless all men and women of our Armed Forces, past and present
      The Only Thing Necessary For The Triumph Of Evil Is For Good Men To Do Nothing
      http://www.navyjack.info/history.html
      My Adopted Bronco is #95 Derek Wolfe

      Comment


      • Originally posted by AZ Snake Fan View Post

        Ya think ? This is my first post in this thread btw.

        TOTAL U.S. DEATHS, ALL CAUSES...

        2017
        2,813,503 (234,458 average/month
        https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db328.htm

        2018 2,839,205 (236,600 average/month
        https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm

        2019 2,855,000 (237,917 average/month

        The link below gives Weekly Counts of Death and Select Causes
        https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Cou...uses/muzy-jte6

        This site shows weekly death counts state by state in alphabetical order from Alabama to Wyoming for 2019 and 2020.
        After Wyoming, it gives total U.S. counts for 2019 and 2020. For 2019 it shows weeks 1-52, for 2020 weeks 1-39.
        Week one of 2019 for the U.S. begins at row 4816, week one of 2020 for the U.S. begins at row 4868.
        I used the fifth column, all causes, to do my tally.

        Total deaths from all causes for 2019, weeks 1-52: 2,855,000 (237,917 average/month)
        Total deaths from all causes for 2020, weeks 1-39: 2,130,000 (236,667 average/month)

        2,130,000 + (236,667 x3) (Oct,Nov, Dec) = 2,840,000

        2017 2,813,503
        2018 2,839,205
        2019 2,855,000
        2020 2,840,000 (includes 3 month average projection for Oct, Nov, Dec)

        https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Cou...uses/muzy-jte6

        ~~~

        Monthly and 12 month-ending number of live births, deaths and infant deaths: United States

        https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/p...nal-tables.htm

        U.S. Monthly Totals > Display by Year > All Data

        ~~~

        Mortality rates in the U.S. are affected by population increase, advanced medical care etc.

        Mortality Trends in the United States, 1900–2018

        https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visual...ends/index.htm

        ~~~

        What percentage of Covid deaths are attributed to nursing homes ?
        Why did certain governors push infected patients into nursing homes ?
        Why are these same governors trying to keep their States on lock down ?


        COVID-19 Nursing Home Data
        Submitted Data as of Week Ending: 09/27/2020

        https://data.cms.gov/stories/s/COVID...ata/bkwz-xpvg/

        ~~~

        What about the numbers ?

        I know many folks that have tested positive for C19 including family members.
        Many of them never showed any symptoms as they stayed in quarantine for 2 wks.
        Some felt a little lousy for a couple of days and had the sniffles but are fine now.
        Fortunately they all were in good health before testing positive.

        One friend of mine's Mom was already in a nursing home before the C19 outbreak.
        She was in the home for 2 yrs prior. Unfortunately she passed on in April.
        The saddest part was that my friend was not allowed to see her.

        If I tested positive and I crashed my motorcycle, did I die from Covid ?
        Makes me wonder about the accuracy of the Covid death tally.

        Also, so many different tests. Some take a week for results, others are immediate.

        Last night I was surfing channels and caught a sketch on SNL.
        It looked like it may have been Bill Burr, playing a mob boss.
        Everyone at the table were sitting very close and touching each other.
        It seemed kind of ironic that NYC is locked down but SNL can go on.

        ~~~

        Anyway, we're over 9 months into 2020 and the U.S death rate for all causes
        is in the same ballpark as the past few years. That's what I was trying to relate.

        Anyone that tests positive becomes a case.
        That case is added to the C19 stats.
        The actual death rate rarely gets mentioned, just the amount of cases.
        Yes as millions are now being tested, the case rate goes up.
        However, the death rate is falling way down.





        https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...th-by-age.html

        ~~~

        I'm glad that the predictions of over 2 million deaths in the U.S from C19 didn't prevail.
        I am curious as to how many actual deaths were caused by pure C19 alone,
        excluding people with compromised immune systems and comorbidities etc.
        I'd also like to know how many death certificates were issued for C19
        from multiple gunshot wounds and auto accidents etc.

        ~~~
        Here are some interesting statistics:

        Disease outbreaks by year
        https://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/year/en/

        The top 10 causes of death
        https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-s...auses-of-death
        Interesting stats - especially the part about total US deaths from all causes. I’ll have to digest this a bit more.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by AZ Snake Fan View Post
          At the very beginning, when folks were panicking and wiping out the shelves in stores, MSM was running with this story.
          A link to ABC from one of the articles has been deleted. At first it was 2 million+, then the "models" dropped to 1 million,
          then 500K, then to 250K as time went on. Back in March, people heard 2 million and that's all it took; panic ensued.
          Articles said 2+ million deaths without any mitigation or preventive measures. Most folks don't read beyond the headline.
          Bet you still have a stockpile of toilet paper.
          Isn't that the key, no matter how accurate the forecast?

          We don't use a lot of toilet paper.
          Last edited by CanDB; 10-11-2020, 09:11 PM.

          Comment


          • This, is also quite interesting:

            Analysis Finds True US Pandemic Death Toll Is Much Higher Than 200,000

            https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus..._toll_is_much/
            Reading beyond the headlines:

            Covid-19 excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the Covid-19 pandemic. In this study, we take advantage of spatial variation in Covid-19 mortality across US counties to estimate its relationship with all-cause mortality. We then examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to Covid-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by demographic and structural characteristics. We estimate that 26.3% [95% CI, 20.1% to 32.5%] of excess deaths between February 1 and September 23, 2020 were ascribed to causes of death other than Covid-19 itself. Excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 were even higher than predicted by our model in counties with high income inequality, low homeownership, and high percentages of Black residents, showing a pattern related to socioeconomic disadvantage and structural racism. The standard deviation of mortality across counties increased by 9.5% as a result of excess deaths directly assigned to Covid-19 and an additional 5.3% as a result of excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19. Our work suggests that inequities in excess deaths attributable to Covid-19 may be even greater than revealed by data reporting deaths assigned to Covid-19 alone.
            The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced last week that the United States had passed a grim milestone: over 200,000 Americans have now died from COVID-19. But research from Boston University School of Public Health finds that the true number of losses could be much higher.

            That analysis, available on medRxiv ahead of peer-reviewed publication, took a close look at the number of US deaths between February and September 2020 that are characterized as in excess of the number of deaths that would be expected in a normal year. Researchers discovered that for every 100 excess deaths directly attributed to COVID-19, there were another 36 excess deaths—also likely caused by COVID-19, but in a less obvious manner.

            BU researchers, who teamed up with collaborators from the University of Pennsylvania and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, found more of these additional deaths in US counties that have greater income inequality, high percentages of non-Hispanic Black residents, less home ownership, and high population density. The data suggest that higher mortality rates are inextricably linked with socioeconomic disadvantage and structural racism.

            Looking at where the most excess deaths occurred is a better measure of the pandemic’s disproportionate effect on communities than simply tallying up the total number of COVID-19–related deaths, according to study lead author Andrew Stokes, a BU School of Public Health assistant professor of global health. “Excess deaths include COVID deaths that were ascribed to other causes, as well as the indirect consequences of the pandemic on society,” he says.

            Indirect consequences could include people being afraid to go to the hospital for another condition for fear of catching the coronavirus or a number of other issues caused or exacerbated by COVID-19’s economic and mental health impacts, such as loss of health insurance after layoffs, inability to afford medications after pay cuts, or the skyrocketing rates of depression in America’s adults, a condition that negatively impacts many aspects of health.

            For their analysis, Stokes and his collaborators looked at county-level mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for 1,021 counties with 10 or more COVID-19 deaths from February 1 to September 23. Although previous studies have estimated excess deaths at the national and state levels, this is the first study to examine the question at the county level, allowing researchers to better examine how patterns of excess deaths vary by demographic and sociostructural factors.

            “Our results focus important attention on the disparate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on low-income and minority communities which have historically experienced high death rates,” says study coauthor Irma T. Elo, a UPenn professor and chair of sociology. Those disproportionate death rates “are now further exacerbated by the current pandemic.”

            As a baseline for comparison, the researchers compiled CDC data from 2013 to 2018 to estimate how many deaths each county would have expected to have during this period if not for the COVID-19 pandemic.

            They found that for the 249,167 total excess deaths in these 1,021 counties, there were 183,686 deaths directly assigned to COVID-19 on death certificates, and another 65,481 excess deaths not officially assigned to COVID-19. This means 26 percent of all excess deaths were not directly attributed to COVID-19—or viewed another way, that actual excess deaths were 36 percent higher than the number that has been officially attributed to COVID-19.

            “Counties with high levels of COVID-19 mortality also had exceptionally high levels of mortality in 2020 from other causes of death,” says study senior author Samuel H. Preston, a UPenn professor of sociology. “This result suggests that the epidemic is responsible for many more deaths than are attributed to COVID-19 alone.”

            While most counties saw more deaths than would have been expected in a normal year, some saw fewer deaths than normal. Combining that with demographic and structural factors gathered by US Census data, the researchers suggest that the communities identified as the ones hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic have likely lost even more lives than official numbers show.

            “Racial and socioeconomic inequities in US mortality have widened significantly as a result of the COVID pandemic,” says study coauthor and BU research fellow Dielle Lundberg (SPH’19). “To protect public health, policymakers must act decisively to address structural racism and reduce income inequality.”

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Peerless View Post
              This, is also quite interesting:



              Reading beyond the headlines:




              So we could be closing in on 300,000 lives in The US alone.

              I have said this before, and not aimed at anyone, but we must be careful not to normalize death....even if it's for the older/weaker. I know of so many folks who wanted their loved ones to live just one more day, even though they were near end. My brother-in-law is a more recent example. He was well into his 70s. He did not die from covid, but here we are, 10 months later, and still very much missed by his family. My sister in law, one of the finest people I know, is doing her best. And the effects are still resonating with others in the family.

              Peace.

              Comment


              • Hey Peerless, thank you for your research !

                In my post I was careful to use CDC and other .gov links.
                I did so because there are so many reports ans studies out there, some may be biased.

                I found a similar link from the CDC for your first quoted paragraph:

                Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
                Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
                https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

                This link offers many "dashboards" to view. I chose "Weekly Excess Deaths"
                under "Options"; "Weekly number of deaths (from all causes)"

                These weekly numbers are the same as in the link I provided in my earlier post:
                https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Cou...uses/muzy-jte6

                That's how I arrived at my yearly count of deaths from all causes.

                ~~~

                I could not find a link from the CDC saying over 200,000 have died from Covid 19
                and I don't dispute that. I am curious though as to how many of those 200,000+
                have died just from C19 without other underlying preexisting conditions and comorbidities.

                I did find a link to your second quoted paragraph:
                Analysis Finds True US Pandemic Death Toll Is Much Higher Than 200,000
                Oct 5

                https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/ana...-200000-in-us/
                Research study from Boston University. It says the CDC announced last week but gives no link.

                I also found another from the BBC:
                Covid: US death toll passes 200,000
                23 September

                https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54244515
                This article credits John Hopkins University:
                "JHU reported the new death toll of 200,005 on Tuesday."
                No CDC reference.

                ~~~

                This information comes directly from The CDC website:

                COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios
                Updated Sept. 10, 2020

                https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

                Scroll down to the 5 Scenarios section and you will find this quote:

                "The five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios represent a range of possible parameters
                for COVID-19 in the United States. All parameter values are based on current COVID-19
                surveillance data and scientific knowledge."


                Now scroll down to Table 1.

                Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios.


                Under “Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate” they list the “Infection Fatality Ratio” for COVID-19.
                That means to me these are the numbers they have obtained from real world testing.
                ("All parameter values are based on current COVID-19 surveillance data and scientific knowledge")

                Converting those numbers to percents, for those aged 0-19 we see the infection fatality ratio is .00003.
                Multiply that number by 100, then subtract by 100 to get the percent for each age bracket.

                We then see that:

                Aged: 0-19, 99.997% chance of surviving COVID
                Aged: 20-49, 99.98% chance of surviving COVID
                Aged: 50-69, 99.5% chance of surviving COVID.
                Aged: 70+, 94.6% chance of surviving COVID.

                The age group in bold is because the median age of the U.S. population in our country is 38.4 years old.

                https://www.statista.com/statistics/...us-population/

                So for the average American, if you become infected with COVID-19, your survival rate is 99.98%


                May God Bless all men and women of our Armed Forces, past and present
                The Only Thing Necessary For The Triumph Of Evil Is For Good Men To Do Nothing
                http://www.navyjack.info/history.html
                My Adopted Bronco is #95 Derek Wolfe

                Comment


                • Originally posted by AZ Snake Fan View Post
                  Hey Peerless, thank you for your research !

                  In my post I was careful to use CDC and other .gov links.
                  I did so because there are so many reports ans studies out there, some may be biased.

                  I found a similar link from the CDC for your first quoted paragraph:

                  Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
                  Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
                  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

                  This link offers many "dashboards" to view. I chose "Weekly Excess Deaths"
                  under "Options"; "Weekly number of deaths (from all causes)"

                  These weekly numbers are the same as in the link I provided in my earlier post:
                  https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Cou...uses/muzy-jte6

                  That's how I arrived at my yearly count of deaths from all causes.

                  ~~~

                  I could not find a link from the CDC saying over 200,000 have died from Covid 19
                  and I don't dispute that. I am curious though as to how many of those 200,000+
                  have died just from C19 without other underlying preexisting conditions and comorbidities.

                  I did find a link to your second quoted paragraph:
                  Analysis Finds True US Pandemic Death Toll Is Much Higher Than 200,000
                  Oct 5

                  https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/ana...-200000-in-us/
                  Research study from Boston University. It says the CDC announced last week but gives no link.

                  I also found another from the BBC:
                  Covid: US death toll passes 200,000
                  23 September

                  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54244515
                  This article credits John Hopkins University:
                  "JHU reported the new death toll of 200,005 on Tuesday."
                  No CDC reference.

                  ~~~

                  This information comes directly from The CDC website:

                  COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios
                  Updated Sept. 10, 2020

                  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

                  Scroll down to the 5 Scenarios section and you will find this quote:

                  "The five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios represent a range of possible parameters
                  for COVID-19 in the United States. All parameter values are based on current COVID-19
                  surveillance data and scientific knowledge."


                  Now scroll down to Table 1.

                  Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios.


                  Under “Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate” they list the “Infection Fatality Ratio” for COVID-19.
                  That means to me these are the numbers they have obtained from real world testing.
                  ("All parameter values are based on current COVID-19 surveillance data and scientific knowledge")

                  Converting those numbers to percents, for those aged 0-19 we see the infection fatality ratio is .00003.
                  Multiply that number by 100, then subtract by 100 to get the percent for each age bracket.

                  We then see that:

                  Aged: 0-19, 99.997% chance of surviving COVID
                  Aged: 20-49, 99.98% chance of surviving COVID
                  Aged: 50-69, 99.5% chance of surviving COVID.
                  Aged: 70+, 94.6% chance of surviving COVID.

                  The age group in bold is because the median age of the U.S. population in our country is 38.4 years old.

                  https://www.statista.com/statistics/...us-population/

                  So for the average American, if you become infected with COVID-19, your survival rate is 99.98%

                  Good data. But whatever the % is, losing over 214,000 people in The US alone, and possibly many more based on the studies mentioned by Peerless, and what I have read, is still not a good story. And I keep bringing this up, but I fear that many survivors have some longer term health issue(s) that have yet to be properly assessed. Maybe it will be low, but until it be known scientifically, it is something to consider.

                  But I appreciate the info.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by AZ Snake Fan View Post
                    Hey Peerless, thank you for your research !

                    In my post I was careful to use CDC and other .gov links.
                    I did so because there are so many reports ans studies out there, some may be biased.

                    I found a similar link from the CDC for your first quoted paragraph:

                    Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
                    Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
                    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

                    This link offers many "dashboards" to view. I chose "Weekly Excess Deaths"
                    under "Options"; "Weekly number of deaths (from all causes)"

                    These weekly numbers are the same as in the link I provided in my earlier post:
                    https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Cou...uses/muzy-jte6

                    That's how I arrived at my yearly count of deaths from all causes.

                    ~~~

                    I could not find a link from the CDC saying over 200,000 have died from Covid 19
                    and I don't dispute that. I am curious though as to how many of those 200,000+
                    have died just from C19 without other underlying preexisting conditions and comorbidities.

                    I did find a link to your second quoted paragraph:
                    Analysis Finds True US Pandemic Death Toll Is Much Higher Than 200,000
                    Oct 5

                    https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/ana...-200000-in-us/
                    Research study from Boston University. It says the CDC announced last week but gives no link.

                    I also found another from the BBC:
                    Covid: US death toll passes 200,000
                    23 September

                    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54244515
                    This article credits John Hopkins University:
                    "JHU reported the new death toll of 200,005 on Tuesday."
                    No CDC reference.

                    ~~~

                    This information comes directly from The CDC website:

                    COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios
                    Updated Sept. 10, 2020

                    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

                    Scroll down to the 5 Scenarios section and you will find this quote:

                    "The five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios represent a range of possible parameters
                    for COVID-19 in the United States. All parameter values are based on current COVID-19
                    surveillance data and scientific knowledge."


                    Now scroll down to Table 1.

                    Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios.


                    Under “Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate” they list the “Infection Fatality Ratio” for COVID-19.
                    That means to me these are the numbers they have obtained from real world testing.
                    ("All parameter values are based on current COVID-19 surveillance data and scientific knowledge")

                    Converting those numbers to percents, for those aged 0-19 we see the infection fatality ratio is .00003.
                    Multiply that number by 100, then subtract by 100 to get the percent for each age bracket.

                    We then see that:

                    Aged: 0-19, 99.997% chance of surviving COVID
                    Aged: 20-49, 99.98% chance of surviving COVID
                    Aged: 50-69, 99.5% chance of surviving COVID.
                    Aged: 70+, 94.6% chance of surviving COVID.

                    The age group in bold is because the median age of the U.S. population in our country is 38.4 years old.

                    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...us-population/

                    So for the average American, if you become infected with COVID-19, your survival rate is 99.98%

                    It's actually very good news that they're being more transparent about the age stratification. It used to be more difficult to find that information....


                    Furthermore, the numbers at the end (the still taken from Fox news) don't exist in the link but are extrapolated from Table 1. The text of Table 1 includes the following: The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19. This is why this probably wasn't reported much, because it could be considered a misinterpretation of the data as presented.


                    And I agree with Can about the long term health effects of these individuals who survive.
                    People keep ignoring that death isn't the only possible outcome from the virus. Early patients are still suffering from symptoms. So while it not might kill you, you could potentially be facing lifelong health issues.
                    Last edited by Peerless; 10-12-2020, 10:48 PM.

                    Comment


                    • I agree Peerless, the side effects of this will always be with us.
                      I know folks that are still afraid to come out of their homes.
                      People are going to have severe mental issues and PTSD etc.


                      Again
                      , from the CDC website, not based on studies by Universities:

                      Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics


                      Updated: October 7, 2020

                      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

                      Comorbidities

                      "Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups."
                      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities

                      Plain as day, we read “for 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned” which led to the death of the patient. That means 94% of the deaths the CDC has attributed to COVID-19 actually included other illnesses.

                      In fact, through the CDCs own information, for 94% of “COVID-19 deaths,” the patient actually had an average of “2.6 additional conditions or causes per death”!

                      Therefore, for 94% of patients, COVID-19 was not the sole cause of death.

                      Comorbidities

                      Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.
                      The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups



                      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

                      ~~~


                      Total C19 related deaths seem to be bottoming out:



                      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

                      May God Bless all men and women of our Armed Forces, past and present
                      The Only Thing Necessary For The Triumph Of Evil Is For Good Men To Do Nothing
                      http://www.navyjack.info/history.html
                      My Adopted Bronco is #95 Derek Wolfe

                      Comment


                      • Conditions contributing to deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by age group and state, United States.

                        This dataset shows health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)


                        Updated October 7, 2020 from the CDC website:


                        https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Conditions...rona/hk9y-quqm

                        May God Bless all men and women of our Armed Forces, past and present
                        The Only Thing Necessary For The Triumph Of Evil Is For Good Men To Do Nothing
                        http://www.navyjack.info/history.html
                        My Adopted Bronco is #95 Derek Wolfe

                        Comment


                        • AZ - I agree. Those stats are factual. But it doesn't surprise me. A death with COVID is still a death. It doesn't negate the fact, or add anything additional to it. There are still 215k+ US deaths.

                          94% of people in America who died of COVID had 2-3 other co-morbidities. How can anyone really be surprised of that?

                          What percentage of the general population over 30, 40 or 50 is without comorbidities? Hypertension is a popular comorbidity and by the latest research from the CDC - 31% of Americans have it. Obesity? 38% of Americans have that..... Add those two, and I'm sure many of those SAME individuals also have either diabetes, or cardiovascular disease. All of these comorbidities catalyze other issues and comorbidities. It's like a wild fire, spreading through a dry field....

                          So yes, 6% of deaths where COVID was only mentioned is not a big number, which I am not surprised by. Once again, survivors with permanent injury are not counted or acknowledged in a measurable way (yet). We won't know for years. Permanent lung damage, acute kidney injury, heart damage, neurological damage, brain damage, the list could possibly be extensive. We could possibly see excess deaths in the next decade or so from this.
                          Last edited by Peerless; 10-13-2020, 10:36 AM.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Peerless View Post
                            AZ - I agree. Those stats are factual. But it doesn't surprise me. A death of by COVID is still a death. It doesn't negate the fact, or add anything additional to it. There are still 215k+ US deaths.

                            94% of people in America who died of COVID had 2-3 other co-morbidities. How can anyone really be surprised of that?

                            What percentage of the general population over 30, 40 or 50 is without co-morbidities? Hypertension is a popular comorbidity and by the latest research from the CDC - 31% of Americans have it. Obesity? 38% of Americans have that..... Add those two, and I'm sure many of those SAME individuals also have either diabetes, or cardiovascular disease. It's like a wild fire, spreading through a dry field....

                            So yes, 6% of deaths where COVID was only mentioned is not a big number, which I am not surprised by. Once again, survivors with permanent injury are not counted or acknowledged in a measurable way. We won't know for years. Permanent lung damage, acute kidney injury, heart damage, neurological damage, brain damage, the list could possibly be extensive. We could possibly see excess deaths in the next decade or so from this.

                            First....again AZ, good data. I did not quote you because your info is lengthy, which is a good thing. But Peerless and I are on the same page, once you get past all the info, you still have death and illness left behind, and some possibly long term. So it's good that the science of all of this is being better defined, but the pandemic is not nearly over, cases are rising in multiple countries, including a new world record recently, and we still do not know if those who have been infected will all live healthy lives as a result. I am not clear even if you can catch it more than once.

                            I have stressed that following the correct safety measures is the way to go. There are more than one credible source to support that. The fact that if you do not believe in the importance of precaution yourself as a citizen (not you personally), what about showing respect to those you may infect? But for some reason, that all seems to be the weak link between data/info and the reality of it all. No matter how many deaths were predicted early on, much of the assessment points to sound safety measures reducing the death toll. And for those who believe in economy, which I believe is everybody, there's an important fine line that I see taking us forward, on both sides of the health and economy ledgers. They work in tandem. People not only have to feel safe, but they are the final ones to determine where the economy is going. If they don't want to eat out, go to gyms, take trips, etc. etc., the economy will not recover as it should. And from a pure business perspective, there are a huge number of businesses that barely made it through the first wave. I've talked to local owners who said they were on the brink and made a conscientious decision to try to make a go of it. Not so with a significant second wave. Then what? (that's too long a discussion).

                            My final thought....ultimately we can go any direction we want I suppose. But the key indicator in my books is, whatever we do, lets not tax the healthcare systems, and more important the folks who do the jobs. To expect those good people to line up if we have more outbreaks is unfair and unwise.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by AZ Snake Fan View Post
                              I agree Peerless, the side effects of this will always be with us.
                              I know folks that are still afraid to come out of their homes.
                              People are going to have severe mental issues and PTSD etc.


                              Again
                              , from the CDC website, not based on studies by Universities:

                              Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics


                              Updated: October 7, 2020

                              https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

                              Comorbidities

                              "Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups."
                              https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...#Comorbidities

                              Plain as day, we read “for 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned” which led to the death of the patient. That means 94% of the deaths the CDC has attributed to COVID-19 actually included other illnesses.

                              In fact, through the CDCs own information, for 94% of “COVID-19 deaths,” the patient actually had an average of “2.6 additional conditions or causes per death”!

                              Therefore, for 94% of patients, COVID-19 was not the sole cause of death.

                              Comorbidities

                              Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.
                              The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups



                              https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

                              ~~~


                              Total C19 related deaths seem to be bottoming out:



                              https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm
                              Not sure how we are going to hit 300k deaths (another 85k over the 215k we have now) with that graph going down so hard but I have herd multiple people in the Media saying it is going to happen. I wonder how much of this death would have been avoided if all the leaders in the 50 states and Federal Govt would have acted on the known incoming risk to the elderly sooner?

                              Deaths are going down because we starting to treat Covid19 better....we have better knowledge on what to do when someone gets put in the hospital.

                              In California over 40% of the deaths have come from people living in elderly homes. While the percentage changes that seems to be pretty consistent throughout the USA. Our leaders are putting practices into place to protect the elderly who are suffering the biggest hits as the data shows.

                              Time to build on the win and grow the team from some solid play higher level of play

                              Comment


                              • I get how there was a lot of concern in March. There were a lot of unknowns back then.

                                At a certain point we need to decide if this is a big enough threat to take away millions of people jobs/health insurance, thousands of businesses and to pretty much spread fear and stress like they were sunlight and rain.
                                Time to build on the win and grow the team from some solid play higher level of play

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