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AZ - I agree. Those stats are factual. But it doesn't surprise me. A death with COVID is still a death. It doesn't negate the fact, or add anything additional to it. There are still 215k+ US deaths.
94% of people in America who died of COVID had 2-3 other co-morbidities. How can anyone really be surprised of that?
What percentage of the general population over 30, 40 or 50 is without comorbidities? Hypertension is a popular comorbidity and by the latest research from the CDC - 31% of Americans have it. Obesity? 38% of Americans have that..... Add those two, and I'm sure many of those SAME individuals also have either diabetes, or cardiovascular disease. All of these comorbidities catalyze other issues and comorbidities. It's like a wild fire, spreading through a dry field....
So yes, 6% of deaths where COVID was only mentioned is not a big number, which I am not surprised by. Once again, survivors with permanent injury are not counted or acknowledged in a measurable way (yet). We won't know for years. Permanent lung damage, acute kidney injury, heart damage, neurological damage, brain damage, the list could possibly be extensive. We could possibly see excess deaths in the next decade or so from this.
If those people had not gotten COVID, would they still be alive right now? How many more years would they have had?
I think that's what bothers me when I hear people (general people, not you) say, well, they had this and that so they were going to die anyway. Or, if they took better care of themselves and lead a healthier lifestyle, they wouldn't have died (some things are beyond our control).
I guess what I'm saying is that most of those people did die of COVID. Otherwise, they would still be here.
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#LupusAwareness
#TackleCancer - Adopted Bronco: Phillip Lindsay
"a semicolon is used when an author could've chosen to end their sentence, but chose not to. The author is you and the sentence is your life;"
If those people had not gotten COVID, would they still be alive right now? How many more years would they have had?
I think that's what bothers me when I hear people (general people, not you) say, well, they had this and that so they were going to die anyway. Or, if they took better care of themselves and lead a healthier lifestyle, they wouldn't have died (some things are beyond our control).
I guess what I'm saying is that most of those people did die of COVID. Otherwise, they would still be here.
I agree.
This article explains and sort of unpacks the CDC's 6% and 94% figures. It also talks about covid excess deaths, from an Associate Professor of Epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
[The report] surely includes some new data, but the general finding—that comorbidities increase your risk of dying from COVID-19—is not a surprise at all," Lessler says. "This would be true for the flu or cancer or chicken pox. Really almost any disease you can name, your risks for death increase if you have other diseases and other conditions that make you sick."
But it's important to understand that some of the comorbidities listed are actually downstream effects of COVID-19—meaning they are symptoms. For example, respiratory failure. Someone could have on their death certificate that they died of both COVID and respiratory failure, but that probably means that COVID-19 caused the respiratory failure, which caused them to die. It's impossible for us to know the individual scenarios from death certificates, but the prevalence of respiratory factors [in the CDC findings] are consistent with being downstream conditions.
To some extent I think some people are willfully misinterpreting to treat this as a "gotcha" moment to undermine the seriousness of COVID-19. They're not taking time to actually understand the data.
But I also think there's legitimate confusion, because the general public may be inclined to think of deaths as having one single cause and that's not the way we look at things as epidemiologists and public health people. We think of component causes. So, for example, you can die from drinking too much and heart failure, because drinking led to heart failure. So a table like this listing multiple component causes of death, without individual context, can be confusing.
Looking at 2020 since March, the raw number of excess deaths is 200,000 more people than a normal year. When we try to understand that, COVID-19 is the most rational and likely explanation. If you don't believe it's COVID-19, try to pinpoint why this year has been so different than any other. Why would a new disease that kills people not be the cause?
Mortality in the U.S. was more than 280,000 higher during the first eight months of 2020 than any of the previous five years over the same period.
A recurring claim during the COVID-19 pandemic is that the mortality in 2020 is similar to that of previous years. Such allegations downplay the extent and seriousness of the pandemic by suggesting that COVID-19 has no impact on the overall number of people dying each year. Health Feedback reviewed some of these claims here and here. Another version of this claim circulated in early October 2020 alleging that mortality during the first 34 weeks of 2020 was not different from that of previous years. However, an analysis of the death counts recorded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) since 2015 shows that this claim is inaccurate, as we demonstrate below.
Figure 1: Cumulative number of deaths. Red curve: cumulative number of deaths from all causes from weeks one to week 34 of 2020. Black curve: average cumulative number of deaths from all causes for the years 2015 to 2019. The grey area represents the range of values taken by the individual cumulative number of deaths for each year. Death counts were obtained from the CDC.
Taking into account the size of the U.S. population each year did not alter the result, and also demonstrates that mortality is clearly higher in 2020 compared to the previous five years (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Cumulative number of deaths normalized to the population size each year. Red curve: cumulative number of deaths from all causes per 100,000 U.S. inhabitants from weeks one to 34 of 2020. Black curve: average cumulative number of deaths from all causes per 100,000 U.S. inhabitants for the years 2015 to 2019. The grey area represents the range of values taken by the individual cumulative number of deaths for each year. Death counts were obtained from the CDC, population size from the U.S. Census Bureau.
In summary, comparing death count records in the U.S. for 2020 and the past five years unambiguously show that mortality in 2020 from weeks one to 34 is higher than the annual mortality in each of the previous five years. From week seven onward, the weekly mortality in 2020 was constantly higher than the weekly mortality in previous years over the same time period. The analysis of excess death, as done here, is an important tool to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, considering there is no evidence indicating that other causes of death have suddenly become more frequent this year compared to previous years, it is highly likely that a large part of those excess deaths are due to COVID-19.
This article explains and sort of unpacks the CDC's 6% and 94% figures. It also talks about covid excess deaths, from an Associate Professor of Epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
To some extent I think some people are willfully misinterpreting to treat this as a "gotcha" moment to undermine the seriousness of COVID-19. They're not taking time to actually understand the data.
But I also think there's legitimate confusion, because the general public may be inclined to think of deaths as having one single cause and that's not the way we look at things as epidemiologists and public health people. We think of component causes. So, for example, you can die from drinking too much and heart failure, because drinking led to heart failure. So a table like this listing multiple component causes of death, without individual context, can be confusing.
On my father's death certificate, it says that he died of heart failure. Not the cancer that he had that led to the heart failure. I always thought that was odd, because isn't that the cause of all deaths?
Anyway, thanks for the information.
Administrator
sigpic
#LupusAwareness
#TackleCancer - Adopted Bronco: Phillip Lindsay
"a semicolon is used when an author could've chosen to end their sentence, but chose not to. The author is you and the sentence is your life;"
Mortality in the U.S. was more than 280,000 higher during the first eight months of 2020 than any of the previous five years over the same period.
Figure 1: Cumulative number of deaths. Red curve: cumulative number of deaths from all causes from weeks one to week 34 of 2020. Black curve: average cumulative number of deaths from all causes for the years 2015 to 2019. The grey area represents the range of values taken by the individual cumulative number of deaths for each year. Death counts were obtained from the CDC.
Taking into account the size of the U.S. population each year did not alter the result, and also demonstrates that mortality is clearly higher in 2020 compared to the previous five years (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Cumulative number of deaths normalized to the population size each year. Red curve: cumulative number of deaths from all causes per 100,000 U.S. inhabitants from weeks one to 34 of 2020. Black curve: average cumulative number of deaths from all causes per 100,000 U.S. inhabitants for the years 2015 to 2019. The grey area represents the range of values taken by the individual cumulative number of deaths for each year. Death counts were obtained from the CDC, population size from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This is not overly conclusive, but it lines up with current philosophies that the covid situation is an incremental uptick to the death rate. This would at least partially verify that these folks were not going to pass away, regardless of the cause. I think many folks who are more vulnerable would still be alive today.
Not sure how we are going to hit 300k deaths (another 85k over the 215k we have now) with that graph going down so hard but I have herd multiple people in the Media saying it is going to happen. I wonder how much of this death would have been avoided if all the leaders in the 50 states and Federal Govt would have acted on the known incoming risk to the elderly sooner?
Deaths are going down because we starting to treat Covid19 better....we have better knowledge on what to do when someone gets put in the hospital.
In California over 40% of the deaths have come from people living in elderly homes. While the percentage changes that seems to be pretty consistent throughout the USA. Our leaders are putting practices into place to protect the elderly who are suffering the biggest hits as the data shows.
COVID-19 Nursing Home Data Submitted Data as of Week Ending: 09/27/2020
This is from the WHO.
Go to 2019. No C19 data.
Now go to 2020.
Click on 5 January 2020:
"On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. As of 3 January 2020, a total of 44 patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology have been reported to WHO by the national authorities in China. Of the 44 cases reported, 11 are severely ill, while the remaining 33 patients are in stable condition. According to media reports, the concerned market in Wuhan was closed on 1 January 2020 for environmental sanitation and disinfection."
Now click on 12 January 2020:
On 11 and 12 January 2020, WHO received further detailed information from the National Health Commission about the outbreak.
WHO is reassured of the quality of the ongoing investigations and the response measures implemented in Wuhan, and the commitment to share information regularly.
The evidence is highly suggestive that the outbreak is associated with exposures in one seafood market in Wuhan. The market was closed on 1 January 2020. At this stage, there is no infection among healthcare workers, and no clear evidence of human to human transmission. The Chinese authorities continue their work of intensive surveillance and follow up measures, as well as further epidemiological investigations......... https://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/year/en/
On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the 2019-nCoV outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
It took the WHO a month to declare the 2019-nCoV outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
Imagine if the WHO had acted faster; how many lives could have been saved ?
I know that during this pandemic authorities were scrambling on the fly at the beginning but a month could've made a big difference.
(The links to Nursing Homes and to the WHO are from my first post in this thread)
If that post was trying to say deaths from any cause is roughly the same as it usually is despite this year's 200k+ covid deaths......... then we can say that covid deaths are being reported for other causes of death....... isn't that simple.
Maybe that's not the conclusion. I didn't read all that data. But I'm willing to bet a large number of deaths have been avoided this year because of the lockdown. Lots of people not driving. Not working. Not doing a lot of otherwise dangerous stuff. Was there any data on that factor?
And again, I might be missing the point of that statistical post ....... it's too late to suss out right now.
Brent....I see that Wisconsin has built a field hospital to support in the rising cases/hospitalizations. Be safe pal.
Yeah - they opened up a field hospital in Milwaukee. We are definitely seeing the rises in the hospitals here in Madison. Thanks for thinking - will do what I can!
Yeah - they opened up a field hospital in Milwaukee. We are definitely seeing the rises in the hospitals here in Madison. Thanks for thinking - will do what I can!
Brent, my city was doing phenomenal this summer, but we seem to be breaking records every couple of days now. If this isn't "second wave", I sure hope there isn't one!!
Hey, do you folks in the medical community define this as the second wave?
As it's more of a local situation regarding The Broncos, it appears that Denver and Colorado overall are not doing well of late, re: the pandemic. Stay safe.
As it's more of a local situation regarding The Broncos, it appears that Denver and Colorado overall are not doing well of late, re: the pandemic. Stay safe.
Yeah, we are ticking up and setting records. The Mayor and Governor are pleading with the public and warning that business shutdowns are on the table. And Denver is pushing off school openings for middle and high school for another few weeks.
Yeah, we are ticking up and setting records. The Mayor and Governor are pleading with the public and warning that business shutdowns are on the table. And Denver is pushing off school openings for middle and high school for another few weeks.
Hope it gets better soon. I did not mean to point you folks other than The Broncos are located there, but I've mentioned, there's almost a world wide uptick of late, and my city is setting significantly higher records.
Hope it gets better soon. I did not mean to point you folks other than The Broncos are located there, but I've mentioned, there's almost a world wide uptick of late, and my city is setting significantly higher records.
As it pertains to the Broncos, the facility and where most of them live to be close to the facility are quite a ways from downtown. Not that they're immune, but I think it helps that they are further from the city.
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