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  • Originally posted by atwaterandstir View Post
    Reports of accidental poisonings from cleaners and disinfectants are up this year, and researchers believe it's related to the coronavirus epidemic.

    Roughly 40% of calls this year were about poisonings in children age 5 or younger, but increases were seen in all age groups. Bleach accounted for the largest share of the increase overall, but for young children the rise was mainly in mishaps involving nonalcohol disinfectants and hand sanitizers, the CDC reported.
    The article mentioned ingesting sanitizer and people getting sick from so much bleach use.....even soaking their vegetables in bleach mix.

    The fear mongering has got to stop. It's clear the shutdown bought us enough time to realize the effectiveness of some of these treatments. The shutdown did its job and was necessary. We didn't overwhelm our hospitals and that is a huge win. But that fear has passed, and so has the fear of being "short" supplies as we have stocked up on everything we feared we would run out of 45 days ago.

    Im afraid of what we have grown to expect from the press...
    Fearmonger, Fearmonger, Fearmonger, than forget it. It will be instantly on to the next squirrel to chase.
    The forecast models played a major role in driving fear. It’s somewhat understandable because nobody really knew what would happen. We were told hospitals would be overrun - they weren’t. We were told ventilators would run out - didn’t happen. Now we’re being told we need more testing and tracing. The goal posts are being moved again to keep the country shut down.

    It was one thing to take a cautious approach. Now we have enough information to take a more targeted approach. The virus devastated elderly people and put people with underlying conditions at higher risk. It hit densely populated areas like New York City and New Orleans. At one point 75% of the deaths in NYC came from nursing homes. That’s where we need to take strict measures.

    Encourage people with underlying conditions to get tested. Consult carefully with a physician on when and how to minimize risk if returning to work.

    We need to get everyone else back to work as soon as possible. The economy is being destroyed. The next domino to fall could be state pension funds (California and Illinois). Tax revenues will be way down which will take a toll. The energy sector is being slammed with oil prices falling off a cliff. Every sector of the economy will take a hit.

    We need more sense of urgency to open. We’re going to reach a point where the economy will completely collapse (we might be past that point). The Fed doesn’t have much ammunition left and we can only keep businesses going so long with SBA loans (grants).

    Most people taking the hard line on remaining shut down haven’t felt the economic pain. Keep things shut down too long and we’ll see devastation like we haven’t had since the Great Depression.
    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 04-22-2020, 07:06 AM.

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    • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
      Keep things shut down too long and we’ll see devastation like we haven’t had since the Great Depression.
      It is scary to think about. Now hospitals in the US are shutting down, laying off employees, cutting hours, cutting pay, stopping contributions to 401k's, etc.. I read a report that Ohio hospitals are losing on average $42 million a day, or a combined loss of $1.2 billion a day $36 billion a month. That does not portend well for such an immensely necessary part of communities and society.

      We really need to find some kind of balance in the midst of this - a better, more targeted approach in areas of great need, a preparedness for other areas where needs may arise, and a measured relaxation for areas less afflicted.

      We've also learned it was here in CA a full month before it was initially suspected. I honestly believe we'll find it was here much sooner like November or maybe even October. If that is true, it would explain the strange "flu" season we had here but also show that mitigation started so far behind the curve it might not have had as much an impact as desired.

      Good food for thought on the medical side of the topic. https://www.dailyherald.com/submitte...id-19-pandemic
      Last edited by Rastic; 04-22-2020, 11:57 AM.

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      • Where I live, thank goodness, the stats are as good as can be expected, given what we see/hear/read. However, it is too early to say, and any lost lives or damage done is very sad.

        We are typically winter travellers in this part of the world, and one of my close buds and his wife recently returned from Asia. Not just southern destinations.

        I appreciate that folks are generally following the rules so well. Respect. I hope the worst is far behind us, but I would describe us as very cautious.
        Last edited by CanDB; 04-22-2020, 12:03 PM.

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        • Originally posted by Rastic View Post
          It is scary to think about. Now hospitals in the US are shutting down, laying off employees, cutting hours, cutting pay, stopping contributions to 401k's, etc.. I read a report that Ohio hospitals are losing on average $42 million a day, or a combined loss of $1.2 billion a day $36 billion a month. That does not portend well for such an immensely necessary part of communities and society.

          We really need to find some kind of balance in the midst of this - a better, more targeted approach in areas of great need, a preparedness for other areas where needs may arise, and a measured relaxation for areas less afflicted.

          We've also learned it was here in CA a full month before it was initially suspected. I honestly believe we'll find it was here much sooner like November or maybe even October. If that is true, it would explain the strange "flu" season we had here but also show that mitigation started so far behind the curve it might not have had as much an impact as desired.

          Good food for thought on the medical side of the topic. https://www.dailyherald.com/submitte...id-19-pandemic
          Completely agree. I saw one statistic earlier today - 43% of all Americans have had their pay cut, hours reduced, lost 401k match and/or lost their job.

          As far as balance think about a speed limit of 70 mph on the interstate. We could save a lot of lives by reducing the limit to 40, but we balance safety and getting to where we need to go.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Rastic View Post
            It is scary to think about. Now hospitals in the US are shutting down, laying off employees, cutting hours, cutting pay, stopping contributions to 401k's, etc.. I read a report that Ohio hospitals are losing on average $42 million a day, or a combined loss of $1.2 billion a day $36 billion a month. That does not portend well for such an immensely necessary part of communities and society.

            We really need to find some kind of balance in the midst of this - a better, more targeted approach in areas of great need, a preparedness for other areas where needs may arise, and a measured relaxation for areas less afflicted.

            We've also learned it was here in CA a full month before it was initially suspected. I honestly believe we'll find it was here much sooner like November or maybe even October. If that is true, it would explain the strange "flu" season we had here but also show that mitigation started so far behind the curve it might not have had as much an impact as desired.

            Good food for thought on the medical side of the topic. https://www.dailyherald.com/submitte...id-19-pandemic
            Agree. As you know, I'm in the vulnerable group. I feel safer the way things are right now. Doesn't mean that I don't feel for the people going through financial situations. I've been there.

            I'm not talking about someone I know or a family member. I'm talking about me. About me getting the virus (even with precautions) and me dying. Yes, it's personal.

            Jobs VS death. I guess I'm optimistic enough that I'm hoping the financial situations can and will be overcome. I have my own views about death. Let's just say I would like to enjoy life for a lot longer.

            As I mentioned before in this thread, there are no easy answers.

            I read the article. I'm surprised some of the surgeries are considered not essential. I don't know where they get the guidelines (did I miss it?), but it should be changed.
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            • Originally posted by Peanut View Post
              Agree. As you know, I'm in the vulnerable group. I feel safer the way things are right now. Doesn't mean that I don't feel for the people going through financial situations. I've been there.

              I'm not talking about someone I know or a family member. I'm talking about me. About me getting the virus (even with precautions) and me dying. Yes, it's personal.

              Jobs VS death. I guess I'm optimistic enough that I'm hoping the financial situations can and will be overcome. I have my own views about death. Let's just say I would like to enjoy life for a lot longer.

              As I mentioned before in this thread, there are no easy answers.

              I read the article. I'm surprised some of the surgeries are considered not essential. I don't know where they get the guidelines (did I miss it?), but it should be changed.
              I really sympathize with you. I have family that is in a similar situation and I would not want them (or you!) exposed when it could have been avoided. I also have a number of family and friends in medicine and, like many here I would expect, know people whose livelihood has been seriously affected.

              Nobody wants this. It's a minefield where ever we turn and we should not take needless risks. That said, I think there are some things we can do without overdoing it - ease in some areas while not in others, all the while protecting those who absolutely need to be protected.

              Fan's idea of speed limits made me pause. It's kind of a good analogy in a way. While there are some who are ready to get out and move, that's fine, but there are others who for certain need to go slow and do not need added risk from others. Somehow I think there is a path to be found.

              The article by the orthopedic surgeon was eyeopening to me. I am sure there is rational somewhere but I got the feeling, in his case and in his area at least, it was a one-size-fits-all approach.

              So, yeah, this thread has no easy answers but we do have some good company :thumb:

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              • Comparing US states shows there is no relationship between lockdowns and lower Covid-19 deaths.

                There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns
                WILFRED REILLY
                22nd April 2020

                Several weeks ago, one of the USA’s better quantitative scientists, John Ioannidis of Stanford, made a critically important point. During the coronavirus pandemic, ‘we are making decisions without reliable data’, he said.

                As Ioannidis and others have pointed out, we do not even know the actual death rate for Covid-19. Terrifying and widely cited case-fatality rates like ‘three per cent’ come from comparing known fatalities to the small pool of people who have officially been tested. Those test cases are mostly made up of sick and symptomatic people or those who had direct contact with someone known to have had Covid-19 – rather than to the far larger pool of people who may have had a mild version of the disease. Because of the same denominator problem, we also don’t know the true infection rate. A recent German study indicates this could be as high as 15 per cent.

                Finally, we do not seem to know the effectiveness of the various strategies adopted by national and regional governments to respond to the disease – ranging from the advocacy of social distancing to full-on lockdowns.

                This piece tackles that question. As a professional political scientist, I have analysed data from the Worldometers Coronavirus project, along with information about the population, population density, median income, median age and diversity of each US state, to determine whether states that have adopted lockdowns or ‘shelter in place’ orders experience fewer Covid-19 cases and deaths than those which pursue a social-distancing strategy without a formal lockdown. I then briefly extend this analysis to compare countries. In short, I do not find that lockdowns are a more effective way of handling coronavirus than well-done social-distancing measures.

                The most basic way to test this thesis is by direct comparison. As of 6 April, seven US states had not adopted shelter-in-place orders, instead imposing social-distancing restrictions such as banning large gatherings and mandating six-foot spacing gaps and maximum customer limits inside all retail stores. Those seven states are Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming. These states reported 1,620, 2,141, 952, 343, 1,311, 2,542 and 288 cases of Covid-19 respectively as of 3:40pm EST on 16 April – for an average of 1,321 cases. The states reported 37, 60, 21, 9, 7, 20, and 2 deaths respectively, for an average of 22.3 deaths. Throwing in South Carolina, which did not adopt a shelter-in-place order until 6 April, and still allows most religious services, does not dramatically alter these figures – these states averaged 1,613 cases and 33 deaths.

                ‘We are living in an era of global madness’

                How do these states measure up to the rest of the US? Rather well. According to Worldometers, by the same time the number of officially tested Covid-19 cases across the US states – including Guam, Puerto Rico, and Washington, DC – ranged from 226,343 in New York to 135 in Guam. The average number of Covid cases in a US state was 12,520. The state-by-state number of deaths varied from 16,251 (New York) to two (Wyoming), with the average figure for deaths being 642. Removing the outlier case of New York state, where roughly half of all US Covid-19 deaths have taken place, shifted these figures downward somewhat – to 8,408 cases and 342 deaths in the average state. However, the social-distancing states experienced substantially fewer cases and deaths than the lockdown states, even with New York out of the mix.

                An advocate of lockdowns could object that the social-distancing states are little places, located in America’s ‘flyover land’. While this charge might be based as much on bias as reality – Utah, Nebraska and South Carolina are sizable places – the next step of my analysis was to adjust for population, using a standard deaths-per-million metric. In alphabetical order, the seven social-distancing states experienced 12, 19, 11, 12, 8, 7 and three deaths per million – for an average of 10 deaths per million when you exclude South Carolina and 12 with South Carolina included.

                Again, these numbers compare very favourably to the US as a whole, despite adjusting for population. Across all US states, the number of deaths per million varied from 828 (New York) to three (Wyoming), for an average of 69. With New York removed from the mix, the hardest-hit remaining state was New Jersey, with 8,480 cases and 396 deaths. The average number of cases-per-million across the states minus New York was 1,392 and the average number of deaths-per-million was 54. Comparing the social-distancing states plus South Carolina to US states minus New York, the social-distancing states experienced 663 fewer cases per million and 42 fewer deaths per million on average than the lockdown states.

                Next, I ran a regression model. For those unfamiliar with academic statistical methods, regression – in this case linear regression – is a computerised mathematical technique that allows researchers to measure the influence of one variable on another with all of the other factors that might be relevant held constant. In this case, the variables for each state included in my model were: population, population density, median income, median age, diversity (measured as the percentage of minorities in a population), and the state’s Covid-19 response strategy (0 = lockdown, 1 = social distancing). The data set used to construct this model is available for anyone to request it.

                The question the model set out to ask was whether lockdown states experience fewer Covid-19 cases and deaths than social-distancing states, adjusted for all of the above variables. The answer? No. The impact of state-response strategy on both my cases and deaths measures was utterly insignificant. The ‘p-value’ for the variable representing strategy was 0.94 when it was regressed against the deaths metric, which means there is a 94 per cent chance that any relationship between the different measures and Covid-19 deaths was the result of pure random chance.

                The only variable to be statistically significant in terms of cases and deaths was population (p=0.006 and 0.021 respectively). Across the US states, each increase in the population of 100,000 correlated with 1,779 additional Covid-19 cases, even with multiple other factors adjusted for. Large, densely populated areas are more likely to struggle with Covid-19, no matter what response strategy they adopt – although erring on the side of caution might make sense for global megacities such as New York and Chicago.

                Finally, I extended my analysis into the international arena. As has been widely reported, Sweden has opted not to lock down in the wake of Covid-19, and Swedes have instead followed similar social-distancing measures to those adopted in the seven US states I focused on.

                Again, there is very little evidence that Sweden has become an unlivable Covid-19 hotbed. As of 17 April, Sweden’s Covid-19 statistics were: 13,216 total cases, 1,400 total deaths, 1,309 cases per million and 139 deaths per million. In terms of cases per million residents, Sweden ranks slightly ahead of its close neighbours, Denmark (1,221) and Norway (1,274). But in Europe as a whole, Sweden ranks 23rd in terms of cases per million and 10th in terms of deaths per million.

                I am reluctant to compare European examples to the many East Asian countries which avoided significant shutdowns – particularly since these countries had significantly better early-response strategies and there can be larger cultural differences which are difficult to quantify. But essentially, the same pattern holds true. When I conducted my analysis, Japan had 9,231 total cases, 190 total deaths, 73 cases per million citizens, and two deaths per million. South Korea had 10,635 cases, 230 deaths, 207 cases per million and four deaths per million. Taiwan had a total of 395 cases and only six deaths, alongside 17 cases per million and 0.03 deaths per million.

                Of course, no single analysis can provide a truly conclusive answer to questions as huge as those posed by Covid-19. Scholars and curious citizens reading this one might want to re-run my analysis with current active cases as a dependent variable rather than total cases or cases per million – although I doubt that would make much difference. It certainly might make sense to redo my regression with ‘date of first case’ thrown in as a variable. I kept the model limited to five independent variables due to the small number of state-level observations available, and left that one out because onset dates were fairly similar for most US states. However, including this information could theoretically produce different results. The more data, the better.

                Overall, however, the fact that good-sized regions from Utah to Sweden to much of East Asia have avoided harsh lockdowns without being overrun by Covid-19 is notable.

                The original response to Covid-19 was driven by an understandable fear of an unknown disease. The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson projected that 2.2million people could die in the US alone, and few world leaders were willing to risk being the one who would allow such grim reaping to occur.

                However, as time has passed, new data have emerged. A top-quality team from Stanford University has pointed out that the infection rate for Covid-19 must logically be far higher than the official tested rate, and the fatality rate for the virus could thus be much closer to 0.1 per cent than the 2 to 4 per cent that was initially expected. And empirical analyses of national and regional response strategies, including this one, do not necessarily find that costly lockdowns work better against the virus than social distancing.

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                • Link to above article:

                  https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/0...ese-lockdowns/

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                  • When trying to reduce the spread of Coronavirus, does forcing people inside help?

                    Some cities have been extremely heavy handed with the lock downs. In one city they said they will hunt down the remaining 1% of people not strictly adhering to the rules.

                    Did anyone stop and at least ask the question, does forcing people into closed areas (homes, apartments) help prevent the spread of the virus?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                      When trying to reduce the spread of Coronavirus, does forcing people inside help?

                      Some cities have been extremely heavy handed with the lock downs. In one city they said they will hunt down the remaining 1% of people not strictly adhering to the rules.

                      Did anyone stop and at least ask the question, does forcing people into closed areas (homes, apartments) help prevent the spread of the virus?
                      That heavy handed approach, in Seattle for example upsets me.
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                      Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

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                      • I have subs in Washington who are literally afraid to go work on grocery stores because they think one of their fellow citizens will report them.
                        Inslee and his oligarchy are acting like embicils.
                        Last edited by Al Wilson 4 Mayor; 04-22-2020, 07:01 PM.
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                        Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

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                        • Originally posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
                          That heavy handed approach, in Seattle for example upsets me.
                          Originally posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
                          I have subs in Washington who are literally afraid to go work on grocery stores because they think one of their fellow citizens will report them.
                          Inslee and his oligarchy are acting like embicils.
                          Our country is splitting into three tiers. Not that these tiers didn’t exist before the pandemic. They’ll become very distinct and change the course of things to come.

                          Tier 1: People with ample resources and “employment privilege”. This tier includes the media, celebrities, professional athletes, government officials and people still employed with good salaries and benefits. This tier also includes anyone we thought of as the “1%”. This tier controls the narrative to keep things closed because they are detached from economic pain.

                          Tier 2: People keeping the country running. This tier includes front line healthcare workers, police and firefighters. It includes truck drivers, warehouse workers, grocery store workers, and people manufacturing the goods we need. The restaurant workers preparing takeout food and delivery drivers. Don’t forget our farmers producing food.

                          Tier 3: Unemployed people devastated by the shutdown. 22 million people and counting. The number will soon exceed 30 million. It’s people by the thousands in line for hours trying to get food. It’s thousands of healthcare workers unemployed because they aren’t allowed to perform “non-essential” medical procedures (as the Orthopedic surgeon described in the article linked by Rastic).

                          In numerous states and cities public officials have turned on their citizens. Some are encouraging people to snitch on their fellow citizens and neighbors. This is the sort of thing we thought only happened in other countries. It’s no different than North Korea, China and Iran.

                          The protests over the last two weeks are just a small taste of unrest. If public officials continue with this heavy handed approach we will see civil unrest. In one state the police union came out on record stating they will no longer enforce the governor’s orders. Tier 3 and many in Tier 2 will become very angry with Tier 1. People doing all the work will begin to ask, “Why am I the one taking the risks”?

                          It’s going to get very interesting. This nonsense with draconian lock downs cannot go past May.
                          Last edited by Fantaztic7; 04-23-2020, 02:47 AM.

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                          • It is a little bit like being in a plane and entering an extremely violent patch of turbulence. You must keep going. It can be scary, even for the bravest. It comes down to consistent leadership (in the plane and from ground control)….and with good decisions and trusted control, the passengers (some in safer seats perhaps than others) can feel some hope knowing it's the best that can be done.

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                            • It’s raining here.

                              Off to work.


                              That’s all.


                              See ya all here for the draft ! Woot woot !
                              sigpic

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                              • One good thing, temporarily I assume, is that there is ample evidence around the globe of cleaner air, sky and water of late. Just a positive among the not so positive.

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