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  • The University of Southern California and LA County Public Health Department recently conducted an antibody study.

    https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody...ngeles-county/

    “Based on testing results from 863 adults, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has an antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for the statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has an antibody to the virus — which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have been infected. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county at the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.”

    At the time the study was published LA County had 617 deaths. If the antibody sampling is representative of the undetected infections, the death rate would range between 0.00279 to 0.00139 (617 deaths per 221,000 to 442,000 undetected infections).

    This also assumes every one of the 617 deaths was linked to Covid-19.

    Keep in mind the Lakers played their last home game on March 10 and Disneyland remained open through March 13. The shelter in place likely happened well after the virus was in the community.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Jason Sitoke View Post
      Where exactly do you get that figure? There have been 16,600 deaths in New York State, which has a population of 19.4 million. Even if we assumed that everyone in the state has been infected, it would mean a mortality rate of over 0.085%.

      Show your work next time. Partial credit will be given.
      Understood, I think people should watch the hour long video for themselves, and I don’t have time to do this, but here’s a brief stab at it:

      That work is based off the #’s in CA, not NY where based on the number of people who have antibodies already built up based on testing done in SoCal and Central CA they believe at least 6% of the population in CA has had it. That’s why I suggested people watch it because I don’t have time to do this, but here:

      6% of 19.4m is 1.649 million although 6% is probably conservative considering how differently CA responded intitially compared to NY.

      16,600 / 1,649,000 = 1%, assuming all of those deaths were covid. It would be helpful to know how many people died from cancer & the flu in that same time frame in NY because if the #’s are down quite a bit from previous years it’s safe to assume some deaths in the Covid category are questionable if they were caused by something else. At the risk of sounding calloused I believe there’s a possibility a small percentage of those deaths were actually people who died from something else but may have tested positive for covid.
      sigpic
      Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
        The full interview is an hour long and very interesting. The shortened narrative here suggests there calling Fauci an idiot, but thats not what they did. To understand this snippet in context you need to watch more of the video.
        They suggested the original response was probably accurate because we had no data, but now that we understand the actual mortality rate is closer to .03% and that herd immunity is being built it is the wrong decision to quarantine healthy people.
        I encourage everyone here to find the entire interview and watch it.
        I didn’t take it as them calling Fauci an idiot. I thought they were showing respect for his experience but also made the point he was not treating patients.

        The unfortunate part of this whole situation is that it is being politicized. This is where we all need to put our differences aside and come together.
        I hope that is what happens sooner than later because the lives being affected by loss of jobs is also a problem.
        30 million and rising, with no way to provide for their families will have consequences, and also result in foreclosures, divorce, children hungry, domestic violence, depression, suicide, an increase in crime, along with drug and alcohol abuse, which will add to the death tolls.
        Those issues like the virus won’t affect people based on their political views, it will affect everyone, and adding to an already large homeless crisis in the country.
        Last edited by 58Miller; 04-26-2020, 08:24 AM.
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        Comment


        • Originally posted by 58Miller View Post
          I didn’t take it as them calling Fauci an idiot. I thought they were showing respect for his experience but also made the point he was not treating patients.

          The unfortunate part of this whole situation is that it is being politicized. This is where we all need to put our differences aside and come together.
          I hope that is what happens sooner than later because the lives being affected by loss of jobs is also a problem.
          30 million and rising, with no way to provide for their families will have consequences, and also result in foreclosures, divorce, children hungry, domestic violence, depression, suicide, and an increase in crime, along with drug and alcohol abuse. Those issues like the virus won’t affect people based on their political views, it will affect everyone, and adding to an already large homeless crisis in the country.
          I understood you weren’t calling Fauci an idiot, but the site who posted this video, and even the journalist reporting from the local station were using sensationalism to one degree or another. I apologize for not being more clear.
          sigpic
          Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
            I understood you weren’t calling Fauci an idiot, but the site who posted this video, and even the journalist reporting from the local station were using sensationalism to one degree or another. I apologize for not being more clear.
            I didn’t take offense, I understood you were talking about the video. I agree with your take on the journalist. Unfortunately right now we need good information at this time and I have found myself having to turn off the news after an hour or two ( all outlets) because it makes me more frustrated than giving me useful info to help me understand what’s going on.
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            Comment


            • Originally posted by 58Miller View Post
              I didn’t take offense, I understood you were talking about the video. I agree with your take on the journalist. Unfortunately right now we need good information at this time and I have found myself having to turn off the news after an hour or two ( all outlets) because it makes me more frustrated than giving me useful info to help me understand what’s going on.
              Agreed, most of the major outlets have been spinning things to present their agenda, not report facts. It’s shamefully irresponsible. I don’t watch Fox News or CNN.
              sigpic
              Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
                Agreed, most of the major outlets have been spinning things to present their agenda, not report facts. It’s shamefully irresponsible. I don’t watch Fox News or CNN.
                It’s too bad, I don’t really trust much right now. And I have no hope will have football in September. Not sure if I’ll have a job in September.
                Oh well one day at a time.
                Been enjoying spending time with my wife and kids.
                sigpic

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
                  Understood, I think people should watch the hour long video for themselves, and I don’t have time to do this, but here’s a brief stab at it:

                  That work is based off the #’s in CA, not NY where based on the number of people who have antibodies already built up based on testing done in SoCal and Central CA they believe at least 6% of the population in CA has had it. That’s why I suggested people watch it because I don’t have time to do this, but here:

                  6% of 19.4m is 1.649 million although 6% is probably conservative considering how differently CA responded intitially compared to NY.

                  16,600 / 1,649,000 = 1%, assuming all of those deaths were covid. It would be helpful to know how many people died from cancer & the flu in that same time frame in NY because if the #’s are down quite a bit from previous years it’s safe to assume some deaths in the Covid category are questionable if they were caused by something else. At the risk of sounding calloused I believe there’s a possibility a small percentage of those deaths were actually people who died from something else but may have tested positive for covid.
                  The death numbers to this point are more likely underreported in most places. I agree that antibody testing is starting to show that the mortality rate is much lower than what has been suggested, which I think most of us expected. It is not, in any circumstance, being suggested that it is 0.03%. The study that you might be referring to is the one done in LA county that reported as many as 442,000 people may have been infected. With 1,651 deaths, that would put the estimated mortality rate at 0.37%, not 0.03%. You’re off by an order of magnitude. This particular test is also being scrutinized for lack of specificity.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Jason Sitoke View Post
                    The death numbers to this point are more likely underreported in most places. I agree that antibody testing is starting to show that the mortality rate is much lower than what has been suggested, which I think most of us expected. It is not, in any circumstance, being suggested that it is 0.03%. The study that you might be referring to is the one done in LA county that reported as many as 442,000 people may have been infected. With 1,651 deaths, that would put the estimated mortality rate at 0.37%, not 0.03%. You’re off by an order of magnitude. This particular test is also being scrutinized for lack of specificity.
                    1651 is the number of deaths in all of CA not just LA county.

                    These doctors have conducted testing too in Bakersfield (central CA) and have concluded similar results.
                    sigpic
                    Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

                    Comment


                    • The data I want to know is, has heart disease, lung cancer, etc. deaths the same or have they gone down?
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                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by 58Miller View Post
                        The data I want to know is, has heart disease, lung cancer, etc. deaths the same or have they gone down?
                        Id like to know as well.
                        sigpic
                        Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
                          1651 is the number of deaths in all of CA not just LA county.

                          These doctors have conducted testing too in Bakersfield (central CA) and have concluded similar results.
                          You are correct. LA county deaths are around 900. My mistake. Either way, my only point was that the 0.03% is wholly inaccurate.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by dizzolve View Post
                            There's nothing I'd love to do more. In fact this country needs that kind of discussion among it's citizens. But this isn't the place for it because these issues are too closely tied to politics and the rules around here are long established.

                            I wasn't directing my comments toward any one user. I just hate to see people regurgitate what they see on the big corporate media channels. Because more times than not, it doesn't serve your self but serves other interests. Which baffles me why people just go along with it.

                            And it's shame we can't talk about it here because as far as forums go, this is the one I'd want to explore it in
                            This too is how I feel. The topic is too close to the political line, and sometimes one can only provide a part of the response, knowing the other part could sound political. Or is political.

                            So, unless clearly non political, we need to move on in a different direction. Even facts that we offer are challengeable (that way), pending where we got them. People can quote studies that fit their agenda.

                            I am definitely less interested in this debate, if that's the proper term. I am more interested now in seeing how this evolves, where I live, and in other parts of the world. I have my core beliefs, and I have many valuable sources to read/listen to....and talk to. And I am being honest, my position moves from here to there, pending the quality of argument I hear/read. I am not entrenched. A person is not being fair to themselves (and others) if they stick to a position when it is clear that they have not given the other view(s) enough attention, and as it turns, they may be wrong when looking back. I've been there in my life, many times.

                            The first part of this story has been mostly about figuring what the heck this virus is! What are it's characteristics? How can we slow it down or in fact, beat it into submission? If our hospitals and medical supplies could keep up to it? More important, if our healthcare workers could? How was this all going to be coordinated? How many lives will we lose? How many folks will be permanently damaged? How are the countries who got it first handling it, and with what success? How is this going to affect our daily lives? Can people still "go to" work, and how many can work from home? Will life ever return to normal, and if so, when? Will we have a Recession (no matter where you live), and worse, will it lead to a Depression? What can we do to help folks manage financially? Can we get folks into the workforce and customers together, soon? How much can be done to safely redefine business activity to support new needs (ie. medical equipment/supplies)? Will countries of the world learn together and work together to expedite? I have about 50 more.

                            But this was happening mostly in real time. It was fluid. It was scary and painful and worrisome. It is still to some degree (for me). We still don't know if the virus can return to folks who have had it, we don't have a treatment and we don't have a vaccine. And we are now learning things we did not know, for example it may have started much sooner. Then again, each day for the last 2 - 3 months we have learned so much more, while verifying what might or might not be true.

                            My point of all of this....it is easy to know a lot when you know a lot. But it is so hard when each day is a brand new learning day, and sometimes at accelerated rate. And the consequences are life threatening, and life altering, including the economic side of it all. And if you are responsible for the lives of others.

                            But now that we are here, like those mall maps you see (You Are Here!), I see the next phase as the part where the new info slows down a little (in terms of the virus itself), and we decide what to do with the knowledge we now have, and what we choose to monitor. Some move forward quicker, and some hold back based on the medical data. I'll give you some "I's"....Info sharing, info assessment, innovation, investment (in what is working)....and intelligent initiative. (sorry, for the alphabet reference!)

                            I will be less and less involved with this thread other than hopefully from a positive news side. I will be focussed more on local activity, and that of where my children live. Not to say I am not interested otherwise, because I stay tuned to developments world wide on a daily basis. We have an impact on one another.

                            In the end, I do believe that this can easily become political, and politics are not part of this board. I know that. I've been there.

                            Stay safe. Stay busy....thank goodness for football! And from a personal and "cross border" consideration, it looks like my daughter and her American bf will be seeing one another, face to face, in the not too distant future! Not there yet, but at least there's a small light appearingf!:thumb:

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by CanDB View Post

                              So, unless clearly non political, we need to move on in a different direction. Even facts that we offer are challengeable (that way), pending where we got them. People can quote studies that fit their agenda.
                              Don’t provide data because someone might not like it, and that makes it political. Got it.

                              I guess we could just trade long diatribes where we restate inane questions without providing much of anything. But it looks like thats taken care of.

                              I too see no value in this thread, so I guess we agree there.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Jason Sitoke View Post
                                Don’t provide data because someone might not like it, and that makes it political. Got it.

                                I guess we could just trade long diatribes where we restate inane questions without providing much of anything. But it looks like thats taken care of.

                                I too see no value in this thread, so I guess we agree there.
                                That's your take on what I posted. Not what I was thinking. The broader picture, I prefer not to debate this topic here anymore. It may or may not be political, but I feel like some of the debate could hinge on it. Just my take. Perhaps even some of our info sources are, whether or not we know it.
                                Last edited by CanDB; 04-26-2020, 10:17 AM.

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