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  • Originally posted by 58Miller View Post
    Thats says a lot!
    Sweden who never locked down is reporting that they won’t have a second wave because they have built up a herd immunity.
    I’m sure that won’t be reported either or will be masked.
    I didn’t have a lot of faith in a just society before this thing and I have none now!!!!
    Sweden has the highest COVID-19 rate in Scandinavia including Iceland.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/how-s...erently-2020-4
    "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

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    • Originally posted by samparnell View Post
      Sweden has the highest COVID-19 rate in Scandinavia including Iceland.

      http://www.businessinsider.com/how-s...erently-2020-4
      Thx Sam! Facts.

      Comment


      • According to Statista, here are the Covid-19 death rates per million people as of April 28:

        https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

        Belgium 630.97
        Spain 503.41
        Italy 446.41
        France 347.72
        United Kingdom 317.23
        Netherlands 262.2
        Ireland 227.05
        Sweden 223.31

        Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom implemented some of the most restrictive mass quarantines (lock downs) in the world. While Sweden’s death rate is higher among countries in Scandinavia, it remains lower than some countries with stringent lock downs.

        More of the deaths were in and around Stockholm and more than half were from long term care facilities (similar to what we’ve seen in the United States in nursing homes).

        Sweden’s public health epidemiologist believes they are weeks away from reaching herd immunity. They are also investigating the measures taken with long term care facilities.

        It will be interesting to see how Sweden does over the coming months with the approach to building herd immunity. As other countries lift restrictions, will they see a resurgence in cases and deaths because the population hasn’t developed immunity?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Bronco51 View Post
          Depends on what you are seeing. I read that Sweden has a higher death rate and their infections have gone up quite drastically in the last few days. Different governments have to do what's best for their citizens, but I feel it's still too early to say we have definitive answers about this virus. The good thing I feel is that people are challenging what they are hearing/seeing and forcing some real deep, thoughtful discussions to be had about what decisions are being made.
          We don’t have definitive answers about everything related to the virus. However, we have enough empirical evidence and patterns to refine our approach to the lock downs. The vast majority of deaths are in the elderly population and those with underlying medical conditions.

          To a large extent we’re still applying “one size fits all” measures across most of the country. Within most states the measures are applied across the board when the impact varies greatly by county. For example our county has less than 100 cases and no deaths. Yet, we’re essentially on house arrest and the state plans to keep the lock down until June 10.

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          • Originally posted by 58Miller View Post
            Thats says a lot!
            Sweden who never locked down is reporting that they won’t have a second wave because they have built up a herd immunity.
            I’m sure that won’t be reported either or will be masked.
            I didn’t have a lot of faith in a just society before this thing and I have none now!!!!
            It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with Sweden over the summer, especially this fall. We don’t know if a vaccine will be approved, let alone when. The virus will be around after these lock downs. If Sweden achieves herd immunity they could be in a better position relative to other countries. This is one of the unknowns.

            With respect to herd mentality, lock downs ruled the day. Sweden took a different approach not following herd mentality. The death rate in Sweden is lower than several countries with strict mass quarantines.

            We’ll get to see how things play out over time.
            Last edited by Fantaztic7; 04-28-2020, 03:40 PM.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
              We don’t have definitive answers about everything related to the virus. However, we have enough empirical evidence and patterns to refine our approach to the lock downs. The vast majority of deaths are in the elderly population and those with underlying medical conditions.

              To a large extent we’re still applying “one size fits all” measures across most of the country. Within most states the measures are applied across the board when the impact varies greatly by county. For example our county has less than 100 cases and no deaths. Yet, we’re essentially on house arrest and the state plans to keep the lock down until June 10.
              it's got to be hard. My friends in Grand Island Nebraska said they have seen an explosion in cases lately and that they never really had a shut down from the Governor. I hear Iowa is in the same boat. It stinks that some have stayed maybe longer than they needed to, but it's offset by those who didn't do anything and now are having a rise in cases reported.

              Comment


              • I like the way my local folks are running with this. Health and safety first. Good stats, likely leading to less strict rules....we will hear something tomorrow. Hope so, because it makes total sense given our situation.

                Based on the fact it is a pandemic, and given the approach taken within my area, and under the guidance of our governments, although I know I could argue a step taken or two, I think it's going almost as good as could be hoped...…..considering all the serious unknowns, and there were/are many. Still cautious, but hopeful.

                It is easy to look back. It is impossible to know the future. You make decisions that hopefully are correct, and in some cases, a great decision is one that wins over 51% of the population.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by CanDB View Post
                  I like the way my local folks are running with this. Health and safety first. Good stats, likely leading to less strict rules....we will hear something tomorrow. Hope so, because it makes total sense given our situation.

                  Based on the fact it is a pandemic, and given the approach taken within my area, and under the guidance of our governments, although I know I could argue a step taken or two, I think it's going almost as good as could be hoped...…..considering all the serious unknowns, and there were/are many. Still cautious, but hopeful.

                  It is easy to look back. It is impossible to know the future. You make decisions that hopefully are correct, and in some cases, a great decision is one that wins over 51% of the population.
                  I like how our governor is handling things, too. He's checking with the surrounding states to try to work together.

                  As I said early in this thread, I appreciate the precautions that are taken for those of us in the vulnerable group. And we have a few on the MB.
                  Administrator

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                  "a semicolon is used when an author could've chosen to end their sentence, but chose not to. The author is you and the sentence is your life ; "

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Bronco51 View Post
                    it's got to be hard. My friends in Grand Island Nebraska said they have seen an explosion in cases lately and that they never really had a shut down from the Governor. I hear Iowa is in the same boat. It stinks that some have stayed maybe longer than they needed to, but it's offset by those who didn't do anything and now are having a rise in cases reported.
                    What does an explosion mean statistically? Is there an increase in testing in their area? Unless you have randomized antibody testing to understand how many cases went undetected, it’s hard to know if the spread is increasing or only a matter of more testing.

                    Seven states implemented social distancing mitigation instead of strict lock downs: Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming. South Carolina implemented more stringent mitigation late relative to other states (April 6).

                    As of today these are the deaths per million people in those states: Arkansas (17), Iowa (43), Nebraska (29), North Dakota (25), South Dakota (13), Utah (15), Wyoming (12) and South Carolina (39).

                    Removing South Carolina those states had 22 deaths per million people. Including South Carolina, 24 deaths per million people.

                    Virginia has 58 deaths per million people, 2.4 times higher than the eight states above. Virginia was one of the earliest to lock down with arguably one of the most stringent.

                    The analysis is similar comparing the rest of the states with strict lock downs vs the seven states with social distancing. Wilfred Reilly completed a more advanced analysis with variables adjusting for demographics and population density. He observed the same thing - lock downs don’t produce a better outcome. Looking at states such as Virginia, the lock down resulted in more deaths per million people.

                    When you boil this thing down, the high risk population includes the elderly and people with underlying health conditions.
                    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 04-28-2020, 04:55 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Peanut View Post
                      I like how our governor is handling things, too. He's checking with the surrounding states to try to work together.

                      As I said early in this thread, I appreciate the precautions that are taken for those of us in the vulnerable group. And we have a few on the MB.
                      That's good P! There may be something to criticize if one knew months ago (make even just a month ago) what we know now, but I would say that given the severity and speed of what just hit us....well, to be honest I am just happy that it isn't worse. Then again, I can only vouch for what I experience, and what my kids experience...and what we hear in our little chunks of the planet.:thumb:
                      Last edited by CanDB; 04-28-2020, 05:14 PM.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by samparnell View Post
                        Sweden has the highest COVID-19 rate in Scandinavia including Iceland.

                        http://www.businessinsider.com/how-s...erently-2020-4
                        Why are you only comparing them to Scandinavian countries?
                        sigpic

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by CanDB View Post
                          I like the way my local folks are running with this. Health and safety first. Good stats, likely leading to less strict rules....we will hear something tomorrow. Hope so, because it makes total sense given our situation.

                          Based on the fact it is a pandemic, and given the approach taken within my area, and under the guidance of our governments, although I know I could argue a step taken or two, I think it's going almost as good as could be hoped...…..considering all the serious unknowns, and there were/are many. Still cautious, but hopeful.

                          It is easy to look back. It is impossible to know the future. You make decisions that hopefully are correct, and in some cases, a great decision is one that wins over 51% of the population.
                          Is it better to make a popular decision, or a great decision?

                          A decision could be unpopular and turnout to be a great call, right?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                            Is it better to make a popular decision, or a great decision?

                            A decision could be unpopular and turnout to be a great call, right?
                            I like how I wrote it.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                              Is it better to make a popular decision, or a great decision?

                              A decision could be unpopular and turnout to be a great call, right?
                              Well said....

                              Popular does not equal right.
                              sigpic

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                                According to Statista, here are the Covid-19 death rates per million people as of April 28:

                                https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

                                Belgium 630.97
                                Spain 503.41
                                Italy 446.41
                                France 347.72
                                United Kingdom 317.23
                                Netherlands 262.2
                                Ireland 227.05
                                Sweden 223.31

                                Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom implemented some of the most restrictive mass quarantines (lock downs) in the world. While Sweden’s death rate is higher among countries in Scandinavia, it remains lower than some countries with stringent lock downs.

                                More of the deaths were in and around Stockholm and more than half were from long term care facilities (similar to what we’ve seen in the United States in nursing homes).

                                Sweden’s public health epidemiologist believes they are weeks away from reaching herd immunity. They are also investigating the measures taken with long term care facilities.

                                It will be interesting to see how Sweden does over the coming months with the approach to building herd immunity. As other countries lift restrictions, will they see a resurgence in cases and deaths because the population hasn’t developed immunity?
                                Thank you for sharing this. Sounds like you understood what I was getting at.
                                I never said Sweden was doing the best out of all the Scandinavian countries. Sweden happens to have the biggest population. Comparing Sweden to Finland would be like comparing New York to 4 other states in their region and saying they all did way better.

                                Belgium has a similar population and a way higher death rate despite being lockdown.
                                sigpic

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