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  • Originally posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    Thanks Spice, I’ll check it out.
    lol. I don't know why I posted that one and I apologize for that. Still good, but here's something less time consuming:

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6490/489

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...-response.html

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Spice 1 View Post
      lol. I don't know why I posted that one and I apologize for that. Still good, but here's something less time consuming:

      https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6490/489

      https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...-response.html
      It’s all good, I’ll probably read them all later. I can read fairly fast.
      sigpic
      Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by RunYouOver View Post
        There's no question that as more data comes out and the science is better understood, we can continue to move towards opening everything back up. I think in a lot of places that are less densely populated, that reopening date should probably be within the next couple weeks. Unfortunately, there are still a lot of major cities that, while the cases and deaths have slowed down, it's still not at an acceptable rate to open back up. For that reason, I don't think there's one clear plan, it's going to need to vary by city, state and country.

        I know people who almost certainly had it, but their doctors advised them against getting tested because they didn't feel they were at high risk and wouldn't change their treatment beyond what they were already doing. That more than just implies that the true numbers of this are way, way higher and the death rate lower than what's publicized. None of that is "breaking" news or a surprise to anyone, but it is good news. If the true number of Americans who have been infected is closer to 10-20 million, we've done a great job of flattening the curve.

        Without a doubt it's a highly contagious disease, and I strongly believe that the decisions made for the last 6-7 weeks have saved potentially millions of lives, because the hospitals would have been overrun, and not because it's that deadly of a disease. That was the goal the whole time, flatten the curve, space this out as long as possible to minimize deaths and eventually get a vaccine in order. Not that anyone really is, but comparing this virus to the flu still, to be blunt, is flat out stupid. We've had the same number of deaths from this as the flu with the whole country shut down.

        And now, now that we've likely peaked, we can work on reopening the country while maintaining social distancing for another few months. We're not going to see concerts or fans in stadiums until the fall though, and I think that's just something we need to wrap our heads around. Not really sure how bars are going to operate either, which will be weird. But restaurants, stores, etc. - maybe capacity is cut for the next few months, but they should be on track to open soon, depending on the region. I miss going places and doing things, but not for a second do I think it was a mistake for the actions to be put in place that got us here.
        The Navajo Reservation, which includes counties in Arizona, New Mexico and Utah, is almost as big as the combined area of Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Approximately 175,000 tribal members live on the reservation. It is sparsely populated and remote. In spite of that, Navajo Nation is experiencing a serious outbreak of COVID-19. As of today, they have 2307 cases having tested 11,365 which as far as I can tell is about 6.5% of their reservation population. They report 73 deaths, so far. That compares to 3513 cases in the whole State of NM (71,118 tests) with a population of about 2.1 million with 131 deaths.

        McKinley County, NM has about a tenth of the population of Bernalillo County, which is the most populous, but has 1064 cases to 830 for Bernalillo County. San Juan County, NM has about a fifth the population of Bernalillo County, but has more COVID-19 deaths, 49 to 36 for Bernalillo County. Natives make up a little over 10% of the population of New Mexico, but account for over 50% of the COVID-19 cases. Since mid-April, the Navajo Tribal Police have been enforcing an 8 PM through 5 AM curfew Monday through Thursday, and 8 PM Friday through 5 AM Monday.

        At one point last week, among the metropolitan areas in the US with the highest per capita COVID-19 cases was Gallup, NM at number four ahead of NYC at number five. A couple of days ago, the mayor of Gallup asked the governor to lock the city down under the authority of the Riot Control Act. She responded by sending the NM Army National Guard and NM State Police to close all the accesses to the city of Gallup. I-40 goes through Gallup and travelers are not allowed to stop for fuel, food or lodging. Those wanting to enter the city must prove that they live there, or they won't be allowed through the checkpoints. Medical facilities in Gallup/Mckinley County and Farmington/San Juan County are maxed and overflow is being medevaced to ABQ.

        The outbreak in Four Corners Indian Country doesn't seem to fit the pattern of outbreaks in other parts of the US. It seems definite that COVID-19 was brought in, and subsequently spread quickly among the chapters on the reservation located mostly between the Four Sacred Mountains of the Dine (Mount Hesperus, Blanca Peak, Mount Taylor, San Francisco Peaks) It is my understanding that the US National Park Service didn't close the Grand Canyon until 31 March. Some think that COVID-19 may have been introduced into Four Corners Indian Country by tourists.

        In addition to the Navajo Nation, several of New Mexico's Pueblos have COVID-19 cases (e.g. Zia, San Felipe, Zuni) Where possible they have closed their gates and banned visitors. That's not possible for those that have State/US highways running through them. A serious outbreak in a Pueblo could have catastrophic consequences without immediate and decisive action. Access to testing is critical. The Mescalero Apache have declared a state of emergency, but haven't posted any specific COVID-19 numbers. Haven't heard any COVID-19 news from the Jicarilla Apache.

        It is hard to understand why the sparsely populated Navajo Reservation has almost three times as many cases as ABQ and twice as many deaths.
        "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

        Comment


        • Originally posted by 58Miller View Post
          Would a compromised immune system be an underlying condition?
          Yes. Those with autoimmune conditions receive medication that weakens their bodies' ability to fend off infection which puts them at very high risk in the event they contract COVID-19.
          Last edited by samparnell; 05-02-2020, 12:53 PM.
          "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

          Comment


          • Originally posted by CanDB View Post
            Thx. Once again, I made another post just as you were posting. Just coincidence, but it's cool.

            I don't know much about South Korea in terms of their daily approach to this, other than it seemed they got a super fast start on this thing. They are clearly different than many of our countries, based on what you posted. But the mortality rate is almost unbelievable to date. Their total is lower than NY State's best day in some time (289 - 2 days ago)….thank God that these numbers are coming down!!
            Additional info:

            South Korea’s population distribution compared to China has a higher portion of younger age groups, according to Kim Yeon-jae, an infectious disease specialist at Korea’s National Medical Center. He noted this has impact on the fatality rate. Even within the age group 70-80 the fatality rate is lower than other countries such as Japan and Italy.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Bronco51 View Post
              I agree that the face recognition probably wouldn’t fly here. It makes me wonder how intense the contact tracing will get. Will it be the same everywhere, or will it be different dependent on how many cases in that city/state?
              I think it will be different in every state.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Spice 1 View Post
                I did some quick research on it a few days ago, because you can't get a straight answer from the media these days. That guy is probably right, because most cases aren't even reported. So, the mortality rates are only pertaining to people who have been tested positive. However, among severe cases, where people are hospitalized and/or tested, the reported rate is probably lower than the actual rate (unless they're projecting for the rate of infection). This is because of the long period of incubation and sickness. So the reported rate of mortality at any given time will not match the actual rate of infection during the outbreak. Since SARS-CoV-2 is so contagious, I don't think they can conclusively pin down what the rate of infection is going to be that far into the future, so I don't know how they can say for sure what the actual mortality rate is. I think it's an educated guess at best. This is before entering variables like geographical location, where preventative measures, testing, and treatment vary.

                I know that there are 7 strains of Corona Virus. 4 of them are not as bad, and have become endemic. 3 of them are more severe. SARS-CoV was contained back in the early 2000's. MERS-CoV comes from Camels in Saudi Arabia, and only transmits through close contact (Oookaaaay, I'll let you do what you want with that one). SARS-CoV-2, which causes Covid 19, is more contagious. If it becomes endemic like H1N1 did, it's going to kill a lot more people. H1N1 had like a .001 to .007% mortality rate, and there were pre-existing Influenza medications in place that were effective in treating it. The incubation period for H1N1 is also shorter, so the rate of infection goes down, because people know they're sick faster.

                This article is a good read for anyone who wants some tangible information:

                https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkin...9__SARS_CoV_2_
                Thanks, I’ll checkout the article. MERS seems quite deadly. I think the case fatality rate is 34.4%. Yikes.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                  Additional info:

                  South Korea’s population distribution compared to China has a higher portion of younger age groups, according to Kim Yeon-jae, an infectious disease specialist at Korea’s National Medical Center. He noted this has impact on the fatality rate. Even within the age group 70-80 the fatality rate is lower than other countries such as Japan and Italy.
                  Good to know.

                  Here's some quick and dirty info, though not conclusive as well.

                  Median age (the numbers vary a wee bit, pending the source):

                  Italy - 45.1
                  Canada - 42.2
                  Sweden - 41.2
                  South Korea - 41.2
                  USA - 37.9

                  What's it say? Italy definitely makes sense, even though median age could be weighted a little, and not equate to as large a seniors base. Say a country has less youth, their median age would be higher perhaps, but not necessarily because they have many more seniors per capita. But I have heard that Italy has a more senior population than many other countries.

                  I have compared Canada, Sweden and South Korea, and discussed The US as well, so I listed them, Basically the first 3 have similar ages (but again, may be weighted for other factors). Not sure how to define The USA. but the median age is lower. May be more youth, may be other.

                  More data to gather. Much more.
                  Last edited by CanDB; 05-02-2020, 01:28 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by CanDB View Post
                    Good to know.

                    Here's some quick and dirty info, though not conclusive as well.

                    Median age (the numbers vary a wee bit, pending the source):

                    Italy - 45.1
                    Canada - 42.2
                    Sweden - 41.2
                    South Korea - 41.2
                    USA - 37.9

                    What's it say? Italy definitely makes sense, even though median age could be weighted a little, and not equate to as large a seniors base. Say a country has less youth, their median age would be higher perhaps, but not necessarily because they have many more seniors per capita. But I have heard that Italy has a more senior population than many other countries.

                    I have compared Canada, Sweden and South Korea, and discussed The US as well, so I listed them, Basically the first 3 have similar ages (but again, may be weighted for other factors). Not sure how to define The USA. but the median age is lower. May be more youth, may be other.

                    More data to gather. Much more.
                    I had no idea the U.S. median age was that low.

                    Italy had a couple of things working against them. In the northern region a lot of people travel back and forth from China for work. It is believed the virus took hold in that part of the country pretty early. Their healthcare system was stressed from a strong flu season in 2017. Apparently they didn’t expand capacity after a bad experience with the flu after that time (I don’t know to what extent).

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                      I had no idea the U.S. median age was that low.

                      Italy had a couple of things working against them. In the northern region a lot of people travel back and forth from China for work. It is believed the virus took hold in that part of the country pretty early. Their healthcare system was stressed from a strong flu season in 2017. Apparently they didn’t expand capacity after a bad experience with the flu after that time (I don’t know to what extent).
                      I was surprised a little too, about The US stat. You are officially "youngins"!

                      The Italy thing was bothersome. Being of Italian ancestry, and the fact I do have relatives in that country made it tough, given we "here" were just awaiting the potential spread at the time. I may have mentioned but my daughter and her American boyfriend had plans to go to Italy...this month. My other "child" and partner were going this fall. Such an amazing country and so hard hit with various economic setbacks and now this. Just like so many other tourist countries....so hard hit, and possibly for so long.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by samparnell View Post
                        Yes. Those with autoimmune conditions receive medication that weakens their bodies' ability to fend off infection which puts them at very high risk in the event they contract COVID-19.
                        Not necessarily all medications. It depends on which cytokine(s) are targeted by the medication. Some medications do not increase the risk for viral, bacterial or fungal infections, while some only show a signal for bacterial infection but not viral infection. Medications have been developed to be highly specific in targeting certain cytokines without having an impact on the broader immune system.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by CanDB View Post
                          I was surprised a little too, about The US stat. You are officially "youngins"!

                          The Italy thing was bothersome. Being of Italian ancestry, and the fact I do have relatives in that country made it tough, given we "here" were just awaiting the potential spread at the time. I may have mentioned but my daughter and her American boyfriend had plans to go to Italy...this month. My other "child" and partner were going this fall. Such an amazing country and so hard hit with various economic setbacks and now this. Just like so many other tourist countries....so hard hit, and possibly for so long.
                          Somehow I don’t feel like a youngin!

                          Hopefully they’ll get to make the trip to Italy at some point. Italy is one of my favorite places. When I was in the Army it was a privilege to have the chance to travel there. At the time one of my buddies in the Army had studied there for a year during college. One summer between training rotations we took a month of leave to travel there. It was a long time ago, so some of the specific memories have faded. He and his wife along with my girlfriend at the time had a wonderful time there. I remember Orvieto as our favorite city, I think we stayed there for a few nights.

                          Very sad what happened in there. Sad for everywhere affected, just that they were hit especially hard along with place like NYC.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                            Somehow I don’t feel like a youngin!

                            Hopefully they’ll get to make the trip to Italy at some point. Italy is one of my favorite places. When I was in the Army it was a privilege to have the chance to travel there. At the time one of my buddies in the Army had studied there for a year during college. One summer between training rotations we took a month of leave to travel there. It was a long time ago, so some of the specific memories have faded. He and his wife along with my girlfriend at the time had a wonderful time there. I remember Orvieto as our favorite city, I think we stayed there for a few nights.

                            Very sad what happened in there. Sad for everywhere affected, just that they were hit especially hard along with place like NYC.
                            Thx for sharing.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                              Glad the delay was only a few days. Hopefully the on-going trials will prove a benefit.

                              Interim analysis with remdesivir met the primary endpoint. Patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received placebo (p<0.001). The median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir vs 15 days in the control arm. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059). Not statistically significant but numerically better - anyone saved is a win.

                              The first trial participant in the trial was an American who was repatriated after being quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, Japan, and volunteered to participate in the study at the first study site, the University of Nebraska Medical Center. 68 study sites in the U.S., Asia and Europe.

                              Excellent work by the NIH, Gilead and the treatment sites for pulling off a trial of that scope in such a short time.

                              If the reduced time to recovery can hold true in more patients, that would be a great benefit for patients and hospitals - it would free up capacity faster. The reduction in mortality would be a tremendous win.

                              I haven’t heard much about Spain. That sounds tough.
                              They've had some good numbers for other meds, too. There's been more negative results for chloroquine than positive (last I saw). I'm glad they're trying different things. One of them will work.

                              Originally posted by EddieMac View Post
                              Can’t stand her... like most new music though...haha my 16 yr old daughter won’t listen to her music because She sees that she uses her celebrity to push her own agenda... pretty mature for a kid, so I applaud that and her refusal to join the flock following what’re a famous person says..
                              Your daughter is an independent thinker. I wonder where she gets that from? Like with most people, I see the good and bad. I like some of the things she's done.

                              Originally posted by CanDB View Post
                              As for Spain. Assuming the latest stats are correct, their mortality rate is about 2.7 times higher than the US, on a per capita basis. Again, just a piece of raw data that does not cover all aspects of the virus effect.

                              Hope this helps.
                              Originally posted by 58Miller View Post
                              This is what I found on Spain:
                              Confirmed deaths 24,275
                              Population per million 46.72
                              Deaths per million 519.54 (2nd highest of all countries)
                              Thanks everyone for the information about Spain. I used to live near Madrid. Beautiful place. Just glad I'm not there now.
                              Administrator
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                              #LupusAwareness

                              #TackleCancer - Adopted Bronco: Phillip Lindsay

                              "a semicolon is used when an author could've chosen to end their sentence, but chose not to. The author is you and the sentence is your life ; "

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                              • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                                Somehow I don’t feel like a youngin!

                                Hopefully they’ll get to make the trip to Italy at some point. Italy is one of my favorite places. When I was in the Army it was a privilege to have the chance to travel there. At the time one of my buddies in the Army had studied there for a year during college. One summer between training rotations we took a month of leave to travel there. It was a long time ago, so some of the specific memories have faded. He and his wife along with my girlfriend at the time had a wonderful time there. I remember Orvieto as our favorite city, I think we stayed there for a few nights.

                                Very sad what happened in there. Sad for everywhere affected, just that they were hit especially hard along with place like NYC.
                                I want to add....so much luck involved for some of us.

                                Had this happened another time, like when we were working, the kids still lived with us, and my parents' lives both changed drastically (one spring), I don't know how I would have dealt with it all. My dead died 3 months later (moved from hospital to care center) and my mother lost her way, and we had to try to find out what was best for her. It was terrible at the time, but I can't imagine if it all happened now. Similarly I can not imagine the issues that folks are dealing with. Some of it seems almost impossible.
                                Last edited by CanDB; 05-02-2020, 03:06 PM.

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