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  • The Official Investing / Stock Market Thread

    I turned 30 last year and made a commitment to get very serious about investing for my future and retirement (which is YEARS away).

    I started to read, read, and read more - especially on information written from the late John Bogle. You can say, I've sort of become a boglehead.

    My wife and I have been fortunate to max out each our Roth IRA accounts for years 2018, 2019, and 2020 to take advantage of tax free growth. We've also been increasing our pretax accounts where she's contributing 11% to her employer sponsored 401k, while I've upped my contribution to 21% of my employer sponsored 457 plan.

    I can say that I'm a newbie investor and haven't experienced any sort of market crash, correction, or recession. 2008 - the most recent historic market crash I was just a naive freshman in college.

    But the start of 2020, I can officially say that I've experienced some serious market volatility. I'm not one to panic and sell of course. I am FAR from that. I know that time in the market ALWAYS trumps timing the market, and I plan to continue to buy and contribute to my accounts as if nothing was happening. I guess you could say stocks are on sale...

    I don't even plan on looking at my portfolio anymore - because I'm fortunate enough to not need the money tomorrow, next year, or even in five years. I'll be REALLY looking at it 20+ years down the line.

    "Stay the course" - a term that John Bogle used over and over again.

    But I figured I'd start this thread to talk, learn, interject about the market. The DJI with a 10% loss today to add to the red from the last few weeks, an official Bear market we are in.

    How's everyone else doing? Any aggressive day traders here? Or are there more slow, steady investors? I'm curious to know.

  • #2
    I am not young. Very conservative portfolio. Stay the course.

    Sharp investors might have opted out, but that's a risk...unless you know when the rebound will happen. But the smart ones, like Buffet, start buying good value stocks at some point in the decline. Solid companies typically fare very well in time, and typically rebound as they should. They can take a hit.

    Value is timeless.

    Based on what I know, you are on the mark with your views. It's only paper until you sell it. And if you don't need to sell, its value at any given time might be irrelevant. And I would of course preach proper balance of risk, based on your age (you are young!). And for sure, when it comes to Equity, I would try to not only purchase as much value as possible, but good stocks that pay dividends. Some good performers will also provide you with a few % in dividends each year. The major Canadian banks, for example, are very good at that.

    But I will admit, I did not like going through 2008, and I do not like this either. But if you can think long term, you should be just fine.
    Last edited by CanDB; 03-12-2020, 03:04 PM.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by CanDB View Post
      I am not young. Very conservative portfolio. Stay the course.

      Sharp investors might have opted out, but that's a risk...unless you know when the rebound will happen. But the smart ones, like Buffet, start buying good value stocks at some point in the decline. Solid companies typically fare very well in time, and typically rebound as they should. They can take a hit.

      Value is timeless.

      Based on what I know, you are on the mark with your views. It's only paper until you sell it. And if you don't need to sell, its value at any given time might be irrelevant. And I would of course preach proper balance of risk, based on your age (you are young!). And for sure, when it comes to Equity, I would try to not only purchase as much value as possible, but good stocks that pay dividends. Some good performers will also provide you with a few % in dividends each year. The major Canadian banks, for example, are very good at that.

      But I will admit, I did not like going through 2008, and I do not like this either. But if you can think long term, you should be just fine.
      In a way, this will be a good learning experience. It will test people and their wits, their inner discipline.

      Stay the course!

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      • #4
        Well, I'm no expert, but I'd recommend an inverse equity ETF while the market is crashing. Once it looks like the Coronavirus situation has almost stabilized, put a good chunk of money long in renewable energy manufacturing companies (small or mid-cap with good financials) and water purification (or desalinization industry suppliers). Just a hunch that these could be potentially lucrative long-term.

        Diversify as best you can, and never gamble what you can't afford to lose! I'm not in the market right now, but plan to go long when the bottom of this sickly infected bear is found.

        Good luck!
        To infinity...and beyond.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Lumiere View Post
          Well, I'm no expert, but I'd recommend an inverse equity ETF while the market is crashing. Once it looks like the Coronavirus situation has almost stabilized, put a good chunk of money long in renewable energy manufacturing companies (small or mid-cap with good financials) and water purification (or desalinization industry suppliers). Just a hunch that these could be potentially lucrative long-term.

          Diversify as best you can, and never gamble what you can't afford to lose! I'm not in the market right now, but plan to go long when the bottom of this sickly infected bear is found.

          Good luck!
          I totally agree. Don't put all of your eggs in one basket! A well diversified index fund is the way to go IMO.

          But why not be in on this market? The best day to invest was yesterday. The better day was before that! Market timing - something that I don't think anyone has mastered to this day. :2cents:

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Peerless View Post
            I totally agree. Don't put all of your eggs in one basket! A well diversified index fund is the way to go IMO.

            But why not be in on this market? The best day to invest was yesterday. The better day was before that! Market timing - something that I don't think anyone has mastered to this day. :2cents:
            Oh, I agree a million percent! Guesses are guesses. I just have a feeling that the market will edge lower. I wouldn't be surprised if the DOW shoots up 1000 points tomorrow, then bleeds it off on Monday. I think panic selling will continue due to COVID-19 uncertainties. I'm just totally guessing and could be completely wrong...but late March might be my entrance window.

            If the Coronavirus impact is less than expected, I would think that the market could rebound massively very quickly. To not be in it would certainly be a risk!
            To infinity...and beyond.

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            • #7
              Once you think you're at the bottom of this market it might be worth considering converting your iras to Roth's
              Red 98

              Kareem rises to the top

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              • #8
                DJI futures down ~3%, S&P in the red as well around 2.75%.

                Tomorrow is Friday the 13th (of course it is). Could be another brutal day.

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                • #9
                  Currently with the tail spin the market is in I'd wait til the end of the week of the 27th and buy fed cattle futures. Around Nov or December. When this thing straightens out, it's gonna go crazy high.
                  [URL=http://s93.photobucket.com/user/Saddletramp69/media/asdf.jpg.html][/URL
                  Adopted player Lindsey

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                  • #10
                    I’m considering putting some money in Boeing and Southwest
                    sigpic
                    Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

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                    • #11
                      Market futures up 5% this AM. Some people think we've hit bottom. I think it's a bull trap.

                      Time will tell!

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Saddletramp View Post
                        Currently with the tail spin the market is in I'd wait til the end of the week of the 27th and buy fed cattle futures. Around Nov or December. When this thing straightens out, it's gonna go crazy high.
                        Huge sale right now!

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Peerless View Post
                          Market futures up 5% this AM. Some people think we've hit bottom. I think it's a bull trap.

                          Time will tell!
                          Well, that didn't go how I expected it. Pretty much all of yesterdays declines were reversed with a 9% return today. Wow. Crazy market.

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                          • #14
                            Hey Brent and company....I have a bit of a concern for stockholders who do not look at companies for value, rather delve into "instant" speculation. Folks who buy and sell in short time frames, just to take advantage of very short term spikes/declines, do not add value to the marketplace, in my opinion. BUT much worse are the high speed computer logarithm based companies, that manipulate markets by buying and selling very large amounts of shares, sometimes doing both within minutes, perhaps seconds.....to take advantage of momentary movements in the markets.

                            Apparently they know how to make money most of the time, because they pick on the simplest of change....betting that it will last just long enough for them to cash in. These companies cause problems in markets, especially in volatile times. What some of us think are value related stock movement, are often fooled by the power of big computers, who have formula that are little about value. They capitalize quickly. The faster their connection to the market data, the better they do. And because they are so big, and their numbers impact the DOW, etc. they can mislead the rest of investors into false conclusions.

                            It is legal as we know it, but it adds no value, rather, often it messes with reality.

                            In the old days, people bought and held on for a long time. Stocks that were good rose steadily, though not quickly. But as greed took over, and smart folks got innovative, the goal of many is to have more volatility in markets, because that's how they can make money even in slower times. They do not mind sharp declines, because they look forward to momentary spikes. Look at today. Tons of money lost over the lost few weeks, but then you get a day like today...with huge opportunity. My gut tells me the logarithm based companies had a field day....even though markets are way down overall, since the virus and to some extent, oil countries took over the news. I hope for the best, but Monday might be not very good. Who knows. But again, those big high speeders are ok with that, because they will wait for another spike. It's pure manipulation if you ask me. Again, no value add.

                            Anyway...your thoughts?
                            Last edited by CanDB; 03-13-2020, 03:46 PM.

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                            • #15
                              My line of work, we see what happens before the market. In about 3 to 5 weeks it is going to bottom out. I would 100% recommend buying Royal Caribbean Cruise Line stock. They have a 22% growth over year, it is going to bottom out and then it will rebound in a big way!

                              You are welcome.
                              So far:
                              FA- Melvin Gordon. Brandon Scherff
                              1. Kenneth Murray LB; 2. Shenault WR; 2B. Biadazz Center, 3. OT

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