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  • Denver Playoff Watch

    I posted this on broncosforums.com and received pretty mixed reactions to it, so I figured I would throw it out here as well.
    -----------------------------------------

    Ok, while a lot of you are focused on where the Broncos will draft in '08, I am still looking for the team to continue to improve and get a playoff berth.

    While I think it is possible to get a wild card spot, I think that is a harder road than winning the division.

    If the Broncos do have a shot at the wild card, their best shot might be getting into a three way tie with the two AFC South Team not playing in a dome in Indy. Much in the way that Denver got kicked out in a three way tie, because they first applied a division tie breaker that KC won, the Broncos could have Ten or Jax kicked out in a three way tie, even if Jax and Ten both would beat them if they were in three seperate divisions. Anyway, too early for the full tie-breaking run down, other than to say that a three way tie for the two wild card spots with two AFC South teams would put the Broncos in the playoffs.

    Back to the more likely AFC West scenario. Here is where we stand, with likely finishes to the season by both teams:

    Code:
    Denver			
    Week 9	4-5		
    	Week	Date	Game
    W	11	19-Nov	TEN @ DEN
    L	12	25-Nov	DEN @ CHI
    W	13	2-Dec	DEN @ OAK
    W	14	9-Dec	KC @ DEN
    L	15	13-Dec	DEN @ HOU
    W	16	24-Dec	DEN @ SD
    W	17	30-Dec	MIN @ DEN
    			
    Overall	9-7		
    Div	5-2		
    Common	n/a		
    Conf	n/a		
    			
    San Diego			
    Week 9	5-4		
    	Week	Date	Game
    L	11	18-Nov	SD @ JAC
    W	12	25-Nov	BAL @ SD
    L	13	2-Dec	SD @ KC
    W	14	9-Dec	SD @ TEN
    W	15	16-Dec	DET @ SD
    L	16	24-Dec	DEN @ SD
    W	17	30-Dec	SD @ OAK
    			
    Overall	9-7		
    Div	3-4		
    Common	n/a		
    Conf	n/a
    In the above scenario, the fact that Denver beat KC in KC, and that it is likely that SD loses to KC in KC in December (most teams do), puts Denver in a position to have a better division record in most scenarios where Denver and SD finish with the same record. Obviously, having SD beat the Colts on a botched chip-shot field goal hurt Denver tremendously, but it is still highly likely that SD and Den finish at 9-7, but with Denver having a one or two game edge in the division record. This assumes that Denver beats SD at hom in Week 16, because if they lose, then SD wins any tiebreakers based on the head to head matchup. Because of that, I have not looked at the record in common games, because it will likely come down to SD winning on head to head, or Denver winning on division record, if they beat SD at home in week 16.

    Back to the wildcard. If SD does beat Jax this weekend, then it makes it less likely that Denver wins the west, but if Denver and SD both win this weekend, it makes it more likely that Denver will be tied for the wild card spot(s).

    If Denver wins, they will have the head-to-head edge over Ten and Buf, in a possible wild card tiebreaker, and currently holds a one game edge over Cleveland in the conference record (another important tiebreaker). Jax is the only team above Denver that would be in the wild card hunt (SD wouldn't be in the picture, as either Denver or SD wins the West, so they won't compete for the wild card spot) that Denver has no shot of winning a two team tiebreaker against, due to head to head record.

    So, in summary, Denver is in a position to win the West with a 9-7 record if they beat SD at home, but if SD beats Jax and has a 10 or greater win season, then Denver could still grab a wild card spot via a tiebreaker.
    The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

    sigpic

  • #2
    I posted this thread just regarding the wildcard picture and also got a mixed reaction:

    http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=105748


    The main this is that Denver just has to keep winning for any of the possible scenarious to matter.
    "You can't take the sky from me..."
    ------
    "You can't shake the Devil's hand and say you're only kidding"

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Javalon View Post
      I posted this thread just regarding the wildcard picture and also got a mixed reaction:

      http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=105748


      The main this is that Denver just has to keep winning for any of the possible scenarious to matter.
      Yep. If they continue with the one win, one loss, one blowout, one win, type stretch, none of it will matter.

      They are a frustrating team, because even in some of the losses they have shown signs of getting things on track, and then there were the big blowouts. I think Monday night will tell us a lot. Getting back to back wins, and hopefully back to back wins that don't rely on Elam's leg, would be a great start.
      The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

      sigpic

      Comment


      • #4
        I posted this thread and didn't get much mixed reactions:

        http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=105814

        The Reactions were similar


        But I agree pretty much with you Tnedator. Its much easier to win the division since we controll our own destiny. The AFC South at the moment is screwing teams out of the wildcard spot. I love playing games on Monday Night because we know our destiny. Depending on what the Chargers and Chiefs do on Sunday we will know where we stand If we win or If we lose heading into the game.
        Back to back wins would be a nice start. Then we can start a 2 game road trip before heading back home.

        I dont really know what to expect from this team.
        When I'm ready to count them out they win
        And when I'm ready to buy Superbowl Tickets they lose.

        Losing 2 games by 30 plus points doesn't make me feel good but the fact that we still have a great chance and the worst is behind us makes me feel good.


        I'd like to win in double digits on Monday Night.

        Comment


        • #5
          I want a 6 game winning streak, starting off last week and continuing with a 24 point blowout Monday night. Offence as a whole is brutal to watch, and won't stay that way. A huge win followed by the return of Javon and the clearing of Henry, the continuing growth of Marshall shown better as a #2 CB has to guard him. A little time for Cutler thrown in and we're there. If the Dline can put some continuous pressure while at the same time actually putting up their hands to block a pass, The lbs continue from last week, and Lynch regains health...., and Bailey and Bly aren't burnt even once deep we win the division and don't need a scenario. It's coming!
          2016 GM for the Buffalo Bills.

          Comment


          • #6
            I think the 1 team that is rooting for us not to make the playoffs this year is NE. Call me crazy but I have a feeling that if we tighten our play up and win out the season, NE is in trouble. Remember if it's one team that has their number it's us. I would love to watch that upset. I would tour the state of MA wearing nothing but Orange and Blue........ Aaaah!!
            #swapping

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by tnedator View Post
              I posted this on broncosforums.com and received pretty mixed reactions to it, so I figured I would throw it out here as well.
              -----------------------------------------

              Ok, while a lot of you are focused on where the Broncos will draft in '08, I am still looking for the team to continue to improve and get a playoff berth.

              While I think it is possible to get a wild card spot, I think that is a harder road than winning the division.

              If the Broncos do have a shot at the wild card, their best shot might be getting into a three way tie with the two AFC South Team not playing in a dome in Indy. Much in the way that Denver got kicked out in a three way tie, because they first applied a division tie breaker that KC won, the Broncos could have Ten or Jax kicked out in a three way tie, even if Jax and Ten both would beat them if they were in three seperate divisions. Anyway, too early for the full tie-breaking run down, other than to say that a three way tie for the two wild card spots with two AFC South teams would put the Broncos in the playoffs.

              Back to the more likely AFC West scenario. Here is where we stand, with likely finishes to the season by both teams:

              Code:
              Denver			
              Week 9	4-5		
              	Week	Date	Game
              W	11	19-Nov	TEN @ DEN
              L	12	25-Nov	DEN @ CHI
              W	13	2-Dec	DEN @ OAK
              W	14	9-Dec	KC @ DEN
              L	15	13-Dec	DEN @ HOU
              W	16	24-Dec	DEN @ SD
              W	17	30-Dec	MIN @ DEN
              			
              Overall	9-7		
              Div	5-2		
              Common	n/a		
              Conf	n/a		
              			
              San Diego			
              Week 9	5-4		
              	Week	Date	Game
              L	11	18-Nov	SD @ JAC
              W	12	25-Nov	BAL @ SD
              L	13	2-Dec	SD @ KC
              W	14	9-Dec	SD @ TEN
              W	15	16-Dec	DET @ SD
              L	16	24-Dec	DEN @ SD
              W	17	30-Dec	SD @ OAK
              			
              Overall	9-7		
              Div	3-4		
              Common	n/a		
              Conf	n/a
              In the above scenario, the fact that Denver beat KC in KC, and that it is likely that SD loses to KC in KC in December (most teams do), puts Denver in a position to have a better division record in most scenarios where Denver and SD finish with the same record. Obviously, having SD beat the Colts on a botched chip-shot field goal hurt Denver tremendously, but it is still highly likely that SD and Den finish at 9-7, but with Denver having a one or two game edge in the division record. This assumes that Denver beats SD at hom in Week 16, because if they lose, then SD wins any tiebreakers based on the head to head matchup. Because of that, I have not looked at the record in common games, because it will likely come down to SD winning on head to head, or Denver winning on division record, if they beat SD at home in week 16.

              Back to the wildcard. If SD does beat Jax this weekend, then it makes it less likely that Denver wins the west, but if Denver and SD both win this weekend, it makes it more likely that Denver will be tied for the wild card spot(s).

              If Denver wins, they will have the head-to-head edge over Ten and Buf, in a possible wild card tiebreaker, and currently holds a one game edge over Cleveland in the conference record (another important tiebreaker). Jax is the only team above Denver that would be in the wild card hunt (SD wouldn't be in the picture, as either Denver or SD wins the West, so they won't compete for the wild card spot) that Denver has no shot of winning a two team tiebreaker against, due to head to head record.

              So, in summary, Denver is in a position to win the West with a 9-7 record if they beat SD at home, but if SD beats Jax and has a 10 or greater win season, then Denver could still grab a wild card spot via a tiebreaker.
              Here's the wildcard update following tonight's game:


              Denver and San Diego are tied for the division lead, but San Diego has the tiebreaker due to the win over Denver.

              In terms of a Wild Card spot:

              Code:
              AFC	W	L	T	PCT	DIV	CONF 
              NE	10	0	0	1.000
              Ind	8	2	0	0.800
              Pit	7	2	0	0.778
              SD	5	5	0	0.500	2-1	4-3**Holds Tiebreaker
              				
              Jax	7	3	0	0.700	2-2	5-2
              Clev	6	4	0	0.600	3-2	4-4
              Tenn	6	4	0	0.600	2-2	3-3
              Den	5	5	0	0.500	2-1	5-3
              Hou	5	5	0	0.500	0-3	3-4
              Buf	5	5	0	0.500	3-2	5-4
              Ok, here is how it breaks down.


              Jax increased their hold on the 1st wild card spot by beating SD.

              With the win over Tenn, we moved within one game of the second wild card spot.

              We hold the tie breaker (two way tie) over Tenn and Buff due to beating both of them.

              We currently have the lead over the Texans with a better conference record, but in a two way tie-breaker, it will come down to who wins in the Den-Tex matchup later in the year.

              We are one game behind Cleveland, but have a better conference record, so currently hold the tiebreaker if we were to tie them.

              Currently, Jax is the only wildcard team with a tiebreaker over us (they beat us, and have a better conference record, which means they beat us in a two way or three way tie).

              Assuming Jax takes the first wildcard spot:

              In a three way tie, Buff and Denver would have the best conference record, and therefore would revert to head-to-head, where Denver has the edge having beaten Buffalo.

              So, while we are one game out of the wild card, our tie-breaker scenarios are very good if we pull in to a tie for the second wild card spot.
              The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

              sigpic

              Comment


              • #8
                After watching our pretty good play and solid win tonight I feel that we actually have a good chance to win the division.

                If SD continues to crumble that's even better for us.

                There are two kinds of teams in the AFCW; The losers and the Broncos!!!

                I Support our Troops!
                How do you expect me to have a RED WHITE and BLUE sig when the background is obnoxious white?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Day1BroncoFan View Post
                  After watching our pretty good play and solid win tonight I feel that we actually have a good chance to win the division.

                  If SD continues to crumble that's even better for us.
                  Winning the division is still the easiest route. If Denver and SD both play even in terms of wins and losses from here out, AND Denver beats SD in SD, then the Broncos win the division due to a better division record.
                  The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

                  sigpic

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by tnedator View Post
                    Winning the division is still the easiest route. If Denver and SD both play even in terms of wins and losses from here out, AND Denver beats SD in SD, then the Broncos win the division due to a better division record.
                    Denver beating SD in SD would be the on the cake. I would be lovin' life if that happened. A very timely Christmas present.

                    There are two kinds of teams in the AFCW; The losers and the Broncos!!!

                    I Support our Troops!
                    How do you expect me to have a RED WHITE and BLUE sig when the background is obnoxious white?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Well the way we had played all season, I would have said you were crazy for saying we are going to make the playoffs!! However the reality is we are tied for the AFC WEST, with that reality if we continue to play consistant ball and tack up points like we did tonight, we very well could be playing some post season ball. That would be some awesome experience for this young team.
                      SOMEBODY!!! ANYBODY!!!! GIVE ME A MILE HIGH SALUTE!!!!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by tnedator View Post
                        Here's the wildcard update following tonight's game:


                        Denver and San Diego are tied for the division lead, but San Diego has the tiebreaker due to the win over Denver.

                        In terms of a Wild Card spot:

                        Code:
                        AFC	W	L	T	PCT	DIV	CONF 
                        NE	10	0	0	1.000
                        Ind	8	2	0	0.800
                        Pit	7	2	0	0.778
                        SD	5	5	0	0.500	2-1	4-3**Holds Tiebreaker
                        				
                        Jax	7	3	0	0.700	2-2	5-2
                        Clev	6	4	0	0.600	3-2	4-4
                        Tenn	6	4	0	0.600	2-2	3-3
                        Den	5	5	0	0.500	2-1	5-3
                        Hou	5	5	0	0.500	0-3	3-4
                        Buf	5	5	0	0.500	3-2	5-4
                        Ok, here is how it breaks down.


                        Jax increased their hold on the 1st wild card spot by beating SD.

                        With the win over Tenn, we moved within one game of the second wild card spot.

                        We hold the tie breaker (two way tie) over Tenn and Buff due to beating both of them.

                        We currently have the lead over the Texans with a better conference record, but in a two way tie-breaker, it will come down to who wins in the Den-Tex matchup later in the year.

                        We are one game behind Cleveland, but have a better conference record, so currently hold the tiebreaker if we were to tie them.

                        Currently, Jax is the only wildcard team with a tiebreaker over us (they beat us, and have a better conference record, which means they beat us in a two way or three way tie).

                        Assuming Jax takes the first wildcard spot:

                        In a three way tie, Buff and Denver would have the best conference record, and therefore would revert to head-to-head, where Denver has the edge having beaten Buffalo.

                        So, while we are one game out of the wild card, our tie-breaker scenarios are very good if we pull in to a tie for the second wild card spot.

                        Time for the week 12 match ups to watch that could vault Denver into the wild card round:
                        1. Ok, obviously, a win by Denver and loss by SD would put us in first place in the division, and put us in a position to grab the four seed.
                        2. If two games go the right way, Denver should hold the second wildcard spot by the end of the weekend.
                        3. Houston needs to win in Cleveland.
                        4. Cincinnati needs to win at home against the Titans.


                        Obviously, Denver has to win in order for any of this to matter. However, if Denver wins and either Sd looses OR both Houston and Cincy win, then Denver will be first in line for the west seed or second wild card spot (since they will the tiebreaker over Cleveland and Tenn if they both lose).

                        We arene't there yet, and there is still plenty of games left but there is a path to the playoffs that is clearly being defined, and this weekend could put us as the leader for a wild card spot and being in position to be incomplete control of our destiny for a wildcard spot, as we already are with the division title.
                        The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

                        sigpic

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I think we will get at least a 3 seed

                          If we win the division at 11-5 or 10-6 I think Pitt will be pretty much the same.

                          If we get the 3 seed then I would like the Jags to get the 2 seed.

                          They are usually tough to beat down in Florida but I'd rather go there and play a competitive game then go to Indy.

                          But all that stuff is just talk.

                          Hopefully we can take care of the Bears for Cutlers first career 3 game win streak.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            playoff watch is simple....WIN on Christmas Eve baby.

                            Beat the Chargers head to head and you only have to match their record over the other 5 remaining games. Lose to them and you have to outplay them by two in the others (probably 5-0...maybe 4-1).

                            The good thing is that all opponents look to be beatable teams. Though the Lions were seen that way as well.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Ludes0208 View Post
                              playoff watch is simple....WIN on Christmas Eve baby.
                              .
                              Heres to a 6-10 season

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