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  • Drawing conclusions from statistics...

    Now that the season's over, we can compare the season statistics to those of past years:

    ===========RECEIVING===========

    Year............................Rec........Yds.... ..TDs
    ______________________________________
    2007 Brandon Marshall.....102.......1325.......7
    2006 Javon Walker..........69........1084.......8
    2005 Rod Smith..............85........1105.......6
    2004 Rod Smith..............79........1144.......7
    2004 Ashley Lelie............54........1084.......7

    2007 Tony Scheffler.......49.........549........5

    ===========RUSHING============

    Year...........................Att.........Yds.... ..TDs
    _____________________________________
    2007 Travis Henry.........167.........691.......4
    2007 Selvin Young.........140........729.......1
    2006 Tatum Bell............233.......1025.......2
    2005 Mike Anderson.......239.......1014.....12
    2005 Tatum Bell............173.........921......8
    2004 Reuben Droughns...275.......1240.......6
    2003 Clinton Portis.........290......1591......14

    You guys should realize that we've had a different leading receiver in each of the past three years by now. We've also had four different one-thousand yard receivers in the past four years. In a sense, this almost reflects our ability to go through a number of different running backs with constant success.

    After seeing Lelie on the list of receivers, you'll be tempted to say numbers lie a bit, but isn't that the case with most of our backs as well? Of receivers have been more a case of circumstance, but I still find it interesting how we're able to just as well get 1,000 yard receivers consistently just as we do the run game.

    Traditionally we've had stability at this position, like we did at RB before TD went down. As a result of injury (and age) we've had to move on and have been plugging and playing with the WR position now, too. Truely, though, the number that sticks out is 100 and 1,500. That is, 100 catches for Brandon Marshall and 1,500 for Portis. There's certainly a difference between good and great for us. That's not to say Rod wasn't great in his prime, because he certainly put up the big numbers.

    Note: Interesting that Lelie and Walker put up exactly the same yardage comparing '04 and '06.

    Props: Tony Scheffler, in a short time span you put up great numbers at the tight end position. Congrats!

    Sorting through the stat lines, I also decided to compare Plummer's oh-so-legendary 2005 outing to Cutler's first full year starting:

    ========================PASSING=================== ==

    .......................Att.....Comp......Yds....Co mp %....Yds/Att..TD.....INT....Rating
    __________________________________________________ _______________
    Jay Cutler...........467......297......3497......63.6. .......7.5......20......14......88.1
    Jake Plummer......456......277......3366......60.7..... ...7.4......18......7......90.2

    This was the Year Jake led us to the Conference title game. While he had over 4,000 yards in 2004, he also had 20 interceptions. Jay, in just his second year has had very similar numbers to Jake's 2005 season numbers. Virtually the same yardage and yards per attempt, almost the same number of touchdowns, a similar passer rating, about 3% higher completion percentage. Most importantly, though, Cutler had twice as many interceptions as Plummer. Similar numbers aside, this is what made the season special for Jake--he was able to minimize mistakes. Still, Cutler's had good numbers, and has much time to improve them and lower the number of interceptions thrown.

    *Not trying to start Jay v. Jake, but I did think the comparison is close and found it to be interesting.

    Finally,

    ===DEFENSIVE RANKS===

    ..........Total....Rush....Pass
    _____________________
    2007........19......30......7
    2006........14......12.....21
    2005........15.......2......29
    2004.........4.......4.......6
    2003.........4.......7.......6
    2002.........6.......4.......6

    Ouch, our rush defense has really suffered over these past couple years, especially compared to those previous years. 2 to 30 in two years? 12 to 30 in one? Al? Here's a look at the tackles and what they may or may or not mean. The consensus is that Al was top notch at his position. Here's a look at the numbers Wilson, Williams and Gold have put up in recent years:

    =======TACKLES=======
    __________________________
    2007 D.J. Williams.............141
    2007 Ian Gold (4th)............72

    2006 Al Wilson..................101
    2006 Ian Gold (4th).............90
    2006 D.J. Williams (5th).......76

    2005 Ian Gold....................88
    2005 Al Wilson (4th)...........72
    2005 D.J. Williams (8th)......55

    2004 D.J. Williams............114
    2004 Al Wilson (2nd)........104
    2004 Ian Gold.................(TB)

    2003 Al Wilson..................87
    2003 Ian Gold (10th).........29

    2002 Al Wilson................131
    2002 Ian Gold (2nd).........100

    No name comes up as the leading tackler in these years outside of these three. Anyway, so DJW definately had the most tackles this past year, yet he still hasn't gotten the same respect Al has. Conclusion? Tackles are severely over-ratted. In 2005, when the rush defense was No. 2, Al only had 72 tackles, which DJW nearly doubled that with the 30th ranked rush defense. Less is more, maybe?

    Give me your own conclusions. This is a lot for me to digest all at once, as well. When I start getting feedback I'm sure more will come to me. I don't think statistics necessarily lie, but they certainly don't tell the whole truth, that's up to you guys to decipher. I've laid out a good amount of interesting stats. Opinionate, please. Whether it be on what I've said or your own conclusions...
    Last edited by Maharishineo; 01-02-2008, 09:36 AM.

  • #2
    Wow.

    So in 2005 when our run defense was ranked #2 our LB's had less than 100 tackles each?

    Our front four must have been beasts.

    I know our defense wasn't much this year, but as the stats point out we went from #2 in run defense to #30 in two years. In contrast, on pass defense we went from #29 to #7 in two years. But hey stats don't reveal everything, right?
    Careful what you wish for, Darth , cause here comes the worst DC in the league...... -stnzd
    What's that? Need proof? http://dack.com/archive/bob-slowik-must-be-fired.html


    Goodbye social life...




    My Mojo!

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by delirium_05 View Post
      Wow.

      So in 2005 when our run defense was ranked #2 our LB's had less than 100 tackles each?

      Our front four must have been beasts.

      I know our defense wasn't much this year, but as the stats point out we went from #2 in run defense to #30 in two years. In contrast, on pass defense we went from #29 to #7 in two years. But hey stats don't reveal everything, right?
      The only reason we were ranked #7 in pass defense is because THEY DIDN'T HAVE TO PASS!!! All they had to do was run, run, run, and RUN SOME MORE!!!

      Comment


      • #4
        Excellent points delirium, I checked out the tackles for our guys up front in each year:

        =======2005=======
        ______________________
        09. Trevor Pryce..........33
        10. Michael Myers.........31
        11. Courtney Brown.......24
        12. Ebenezer Ekuban......27
        13. Demetrin Veal..........25

        =======2007=======
        _______________________
        09. John Engelberger......41
        11. Elvis Dumervil...........39

        Where's everybody else for 2007? Well, I only posted tackles for guys with at least 20 on the season. 'nuff said?

        And while I'm handing out props, playing a meager portion of the season: Hamza Abdullah had 48 tackles, good for 8th on the team.

        Comment


        • #5
          Well if you think about it with run defense the players closer to the L.O.S. should get the most tackles, therefore our DL should have the most.

          So, if our Lbs have large amounts of tackles they are hitting the ball carrier to late (3-4 yards past the L.O.S.). Think back to the runs you have seen, DL blown off L.O.S., RB hit by LBs 3-4 yards deep, sound familiar?

          As for WR passing yards, with the exception of 2004 we haven't had a year with two good WRs. Therefore it is logical we have WRs with large numbers.

          I would like to see tackles behind L.O.S. and sacks a year, along with distribution of runs against our run D.

          thanks, if you can provide those

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Beast#7 View Post
            The only reason we were ranked #7 in pass defense is because THEY DIDN'T HAVE TO PASS!!! All they had to do was run, run, run, and RUN SOME MORE!!!
            I guess you're right we sucked against the pass in '05 and were great against the run.

            Why you ask? Because back in '05 we were jumping ahead of opponents on offense early. Whatever was the opposing team to do? Pass, and do lots of it. What about this year and most of last year you ask? Well we can't punch it in the endzone, so we were obviously never ahead. Meanwhile the times we were playing jumped on top and did what? Ran, and did lots of it.

            This is why I said that stats don't explain everything. This also answers my question why the LB's had less than 100 tackles, and the defensive line didn't have a ton either back in '05. It was because our offense was saving us, teams were playing catch up.
            Careful what you wish for, Darth , cause here comes the worst DC in the league...... -stnzd
            What's that? Need proof? http://dack.com/archive/bob-slowik-must-be-fired.html


            Goodbye social life...




            My Mojo!

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by WCOfan View Post
              Well if you think about it with run defense the players closer to the L.O.S. should get the most tackles, therefore our DL should have the most.

              So, if our Lbs have large amounts of tackles they are hitting the ball carrier to late (3-4 yards past the L.O.S.). Think back to the runs you have seen, DL blown off L.O.S., RB hit by LBs 3-4 yards deep, sound familiar?

              As for WR passing yards, with the exception of 2004 we haven't had a year with two good WRs. Therefore it is logical we have WRs with large numbers.

              I would like to see tackles behind L.O.S. and sacks a year, along with distribution of runs against our run D.

              thanks, if you can provide those
              That's exactly the problem. When the men up front can make plays then the opponent's run game is going to be put at a halt, otherwise the linebackers have to make the plays at the mid-to-second-level as you were saying. As for the stats you requested, I'm only going off of the NFL.com archives so I can't provide tackles/loss or run distribution, but I think I can do sacks:

              2007: 33 (25 DL, 3 LB, 2 DB)
              2006: 35 (28 DL, 6 LB, 0 DB)
              2005: 28 (16 DL, 6 LB, 5 DB)
              2004: 38 (Reggie Hayward 10)
              2003: 36 (Bertrand Berry 12, Trevor Pryce 8, Reggie Hayward 8)
              2002: 40 (Trevor Pryce 9)

              I actually count 30 for 2007, but NFL.com totals 33 somehow. Same goes for 2005 and 2006. I didn't double-check the others.

              Mind you, Elvis came in last year (8). There was a partial drop off this year due to Ekuban's injury, he accounted for 7 sacks last year.

              For those whom are curious, here are the opponents totals since 2002 (Plummer's first year was 2003):

              2002: 46
              2003: 25
              2004: 15
              2005: 23
              2006: 31
              2007: 32
              Last edited by Maharishineo; 01-02-2008, 01:20 AM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Maharishineo View Post
                No name comes up as the leading tackler in these years outside of these three. Anyway, so DJW definately had the most tackles this past year, yet he still hasn't gotten the same respect Al has. Conclusion? Tackles are severely over-ratted. In 2005, when the rush defense was No. 2, Al only had 72 tackles, which DJW nearly doubled that with the 30th ranked rush defense. Less is more, maybe?
                If Player X gets 3 tackles before the opposing team starts their next set of downs and gets 3 more and 3 more and finally drives the opposing team off the field, it will appear as though Player X is getting a lot of tackles compared to Player Y who gets 3 tackles and drives the opposing team off the field.

                We did an decent defensive job, this year, as I recall, on first and second downs, but couldn't get off the field on third. We're naturally going to pile up on tackle stats.
                The clever man delivers reasonable, rational, and sometimes irrefutable arguments. The wise man understands the futility of reasonable, rational, and irrefutable arguments. I'm neither wise, nor, I suspect, very clever.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Maharishineo View Post
                  For those whom are curious, here are the opponents totals since 2002 (Plummer's first year was 2003):

                  2002: 46
                  2003: 25
                  2004: 15
                  2005: 23
                  2006: 31
                  2007: 32
                  The sacks are going up despite our escape artist QB last year and our quick-release QB this year... I really have a feeling our O-Line is very degraded from previous years.
                  The clever man delivers reasonable, rational, and sometimes irrefutable arguments. The wise man understands the futility of reasonable, rational, and irrefutable arguments. I'm neither wise, nor, I suspect, very clever.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Maharishineo View Post

                    For those whom are curious, here are the opponents totals since 2002 (Plummer's first year was 2003):

                    2002: 46
                    2003: 25
                    2004: 15
                    2005: 23
                    2006: 31
                    2007: 32
                    Well you can see this is alot to do with QBs.... in 2002... Brian "Look out for the Dog" Griese couldnt run his way out of a paper bag.. so therefore a high number of sacks... Plummer had relatively low numbers in 03-05... and then starting with 06 the numbers went up... I didnt look game by game... but im guessing that some of those sacks were due to Cutler coming in later in the season... he just doesnt have the mobility Plummer did... so I think it is somewhat attributed to that... also you do hafta figure in the line getting a little older too.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by bronco6maniac84 View Post
                      Well you can see this is alot to do with QBs.... in 2002... Brian "Look out for the Dog" Griese couldnt run his way out of a paper bag.. so therefore a high number of sacks... Plummer had relatively low numbers in 03-05... and then starting with 06 the numbers went up... I didnt look game by game... but im guessing that some of those sacks were due to Cutler coming in later in the season... he just doesnt have the mobility Plummer did... so I think it is somewhat attributed to that... also you do hafta figure in the line getting a little older too.
                      I think Cutler is every bit as mobile as Plummer was, the difference being that Cutler is a rookie (for all practical purposes) and doesn't look to run like Jake did. When Cutler did decide to tuck and run, he usually did pretty well, not to mention the fact that he had one of the highest passer ratings outside of the pocket in the NFL. Cutler also has held on to the ball a few times this year, but again, he's essentially a rookie and will make mistakes. I'd be interested to see the sacks by game, I'm willing to bet that they went up as the season progressed, showing that our o-line wasn't up to snuff in the conditioning department. It also doesn't help when you're playing your 3rd string center.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Gator Broncos View Post
                        I think Cutler is every bit as mobile as Plummer was, the difference being that Cutler is a rookie (for all practical purposes) and doesn't look to run like Jake did. When Cutler did decide to tuck and run, he usually did pretty well, not to mention the fact that he had one of the highest passer ratings outside of the pocket in the NFL. Cutler also has held on to the ball a few times this year, but again, he's essentially a rookie and will make mistakes. I'd be interested to see the sacks by game, I'm willing to bet that they went up as the season progressed, showing that our o-line wasn't up to snuff in the conditioning department. It also doesn't help when you're playing your 3rd string center.
                        Whereas Cutler is mobile, I don't think he's as mobile as Plummer. I think only Michael Vick was more mobile than Jake Plummer when both were playing.

                        That said, the reason why we didn't see Cutler take off more is that his pocket awareness still isn't as sharp as Jake's was (for all the knocks Plummer receives the one thing he excelled in was pocket awareness), but I believe it will get better over time.
                        sigpic

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                        • #13
                          Returning to the issue of our team's sacks, it appears as though this number has been fairly irrelevant as well. I see very little correlation. The most I can make out is between '04 and '05 when we dropped by ten sacks and over 20 spots against the pass.

                          ===DEFENSIVE RANKS===

                          ..........Total....Rush....Pass...Sacks
                          ____________________________
                          2007........19......30......7.......33
                          2006........14......12.....21......35
                          2005........15......2.......29......28
                          2004.........4.......4.......6.......38
                          2003.........4.......7.......6.......36
                          2002.........6.......4.......6.......40

                          Originally posted by bronco6maniac84 View Post
                          Well you can see this is alot to do with QBs....
                          Exactly. I believe the best example of this is the comparison between the Cowboys with Drew Bledsoe and with Tony Romo. Prior to Romo's takeover, the Cowboys offensive line was criticized for being one of the worst groups in football. As we can see now, though, they're actually one of the top flight groups. The numbers were deceiving, as it was more on Bledsoe than the line. Cowboys sacks given up:

                          2007: 25
                          2006: 37
                          2005: 50

                          Notes: Romo came in half way through the 2006 season + Leonard Davis was acquired prior to the '07 season

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by delirium_05 View Post
                            I guess you're right we sucked against the pass in '05 and were great against the run.

                            Why you ask? Because back in '05 we were jumping ahead of opponents on offense early. Whatever was the opposing team to do? Pass, and do lots of it. What about this year and most of last year you ask? Well we can't punch it in the endzone, so we were obviously never ahead. Meanwhile the times we were playing jumped on top and did what? Ran, and did lots of it.

                            This is why I said that stats don't explain everything. This also answers my question why the LB's had less than 100 tackles, and the defensive line didn't have a ton either back in '05. It was because our offense was saving us, teams were playing catch up.
                            CP to you- you posted my thoughts quicker than I could. We played behind ALL year long. In years past Shanny football was to get ahead early and make a team one dimensional. When teams get down enough they ditch the running game for the passing game.

                            Also, I would think that if a team is known for being great against the run, the other teams would gameplan around that and do more passing.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by AmericanBronc View Post
                              If Player X gets 3 tackles before the opposing team starts their next set of downs and gets 3 more and 3 more and finally drives the opposing team off the field, it will appear as though Player X is getting a lot of tackles compared to Player Y who gets 3 tackles and drives the opposing team off the field.

                              We did an decent defensive job, this year, as I recall, on first and second downs, but couldn't get off the field on third. We're naturally going to pile up on tackle stats.
                              Exactly...
                              I would like to see the stat of how many defensive plays were ran in 2007 vs 2002. Or time of possession...

                              Comment

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