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Early Outlook On Our Defense In 2008

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Cugel View Post
    This just shows that you don't know what you're talking about.

    You don't just find starting quality DTs lying around on the street, any more than you do starting franchise QBs. Teams just don't let their franchise QB get away via FA and they don't let their star DTs get away either.

    I've posted this over and over again these past two years:

    Here's the draft chart for QBs over the years (from Football Outsiders):



    Notice how top heavy the chart is? The really promising QBs get taken in the first round, and usually in the top 1/2 of the first round. It's accepted that it's tough to win the SB without a franchise QB and everybody who doesn't already have one is looking for one in the draft.

    And now, here's the draft chart for DTs:



    Notice the similarity? http://www.footballoutsiders.com/200...fl-draft/3828/



    That's the draft philosophy used by virtually ALL NFL GMs. They are all fighting over the maybe 2 or 3 DTs to enter the draft each year who can be considered elite, or potentially elite. The rest of the DTs might be average, but not great.

    Thus, it's extremely hard to find really good DTs via FA. You pretty much have to draft and groom them, just like starting QBs.

    Now people blame Bates, but HE wasn't failing to draft a DT in the first or 2nd round (not counting the Paul Toviesi fiasco) between 2000 and 2007! That was Mike Shanahan ignoring the D-line.

    The Broncos brought in just about every available FA DT on the market and tried their best to get a decent group together, but it just didn't work out. It turns out there WERE no really good DTs available via FA that year.

    They tried Kennedy and Adams and a bunch of others, and none of them worked.

    Now, where in all this is it Bates' fault? You can't really fault him for failing to succeed when the Broncos switched to a NORMAL defensive scheme. What more could he do? If you have no really good D-linemen (outside Elvis Dumervil) and have to use a bunch of rookies and undrafted FAs your defense is going to suck. The Broncos couldn't even stop the run consistently with 8 men in the box because their DTs were getting pushed around (and Nate Webster didn't help -- he's really a ST player forced into the lineup due to injury). And being forced to have so many defenders close to the line meant that teams were passing for LOTS of yardage underneath the CBs. End result: the defense sucked.

    If the defense sucks, you're going to lose a lot of games. That's not rocket science.
    That's a great post.

    According to that chart(if I'm reading it right), Franchise QB's are easier to find than elite DT's.

    I wonder what other positions, if any, are even moreso harder to find.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Cugel View Post
      This just shows that you don't know what you're talking about.

      You don't just find starting quality DTs lying around on the street, any more than you do starting franchise QBs. Teams just don't let their franchise QB get away via FA and they don't let their star DTs get away either.

      I've posted this over and over again these past two years:

      Here's the draft chart for QBs over the years (from Football Outsiders):



      Notice how top heavy the chart is? The really promising QBs get taken in the first round, and usually in the top 1/2 of the first round. It's accepted that it's tough to win the SB without a franchise QB and everybody who doesn't already have one is looking for one in the draft.

      And now, here's the draft chart for DTs:



      Notice the similarity? http://www.footballoutsiders.com/200...fl-draft/3828/



      That's the draft philosophy used by virtually ALL NFL GMs. They are all fighting over the maybe 2 or 3 DTs to enter the draft each year who can be considered elite, or potentially elite. The rest of the DTs might be average, but not great.

      Thus, it's extremely hard to find really good DTs via FA. You pretty much have to draft and groom them, just like starting QBs.

      Now people blame Bates, but HE wasn't failing to draft a DT in the first or 2nd round (not counting the Paul Toviesi fiasco) between 2000 and 2007! That was Mike Shanahan ignoring the D-line.

      The Broncos brought in just about every available FA DT on the market and tried their best to get a decent group together, but it just didn't work out. It turns out there WERE no really good DTs available via FA that year.

      They tried Kennedy and Adams and a bunch of others, and none of them worked.

      Now, where in all this is it Bates' fault? You can't really fault him for failing to succeed when the Broncos switched to a NORMAL defensive scheme. What more could he do? If you have no really good D-linemen (outside Elvis Dumervil) and have to use a bunch of rookies and undrafted FAs your defense is going to suck. The Broncos couldn't even stop the run consistently with 8 men in the box because their DTs were getting pushed around (and Nate Webster didn't help -- he's really a ST player forced into the lineup due to injury). And being forced to have so many defenders close to the line meant that teams were passing for LOTS of yardage underneath the CBs. End result: the defense sucked.

      If the defense sucks, you're going to lose a lot of games. That's not rocket science.
      I'm sorry...what exactly does any of this have to do with DJ Williams as MLB?
      sigpic

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      • #18
        Ok um, Smith and Lynch need to retire.

        I love Rod and all, but old man your 5 million coud be spent on something that actually could see the playing field.

        Smith is getting 5 million a year to be Marshals mentor, hell you can only pay me 1million a year and I will do a hell of alot more then that.

        Adios Rod Smith, time for your butt to go man.

        Im sorry...but it needs to be said.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Rockies24 View Post
          Look who he had to play next to him.

          He is a UT, to be effecitve he needs a true NT to eat up blockers next to him. With better linemates next year he should be fine, he will be a starter or a major player in our rotation next year. It is hard to judge a rookie DT as none of them should be forced into playing.

          Great analyis on why to keep D.J at MIKE, some of the people on this board need to read that.
          My only concern with DJ at Mike is that he's a bit undersized for that position, just like Al Wilson. I would like him to play at a position he's going to be able to not only play well but be durable as well.
          You Tell 'em Justice is coming. You tell 'em I'M coming!sigpic

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          • #20
            Originally posted by silkamilkamonic View Post
            That's a great post.

            According to that chart(if I'm reading it right), Franchise QB's are easier to find than elite DT's.

            I wonder what other positions, if any, are even moreso harder to find.
            I should have pointed out that the blue bar in the charts indicates "round selected" for all drafted QBs (or DTs) and the RED bar right underneath it is "percentage starters taken in that round."

            So, more QBs were drafted in the first round than anything, and 40% of all starting QBs in the NFL (over the entire history of the draft) were taken in the 1st round. That's just a huge percentage.

            AS for DTs, they are the 2nd most "top-heavy" position drafted after QB, which is why I posted both charts for comparison.

            Just like QBs, the good ones simply aren't let go to become FAs, they are signed to long-term contracts. Like QBs, when a premier DT becomes available, like Warren Sapp a few years ago, it is generally because they are getting old and their contracts are becoming too expensive for their play to justify.

            With QBs of course it's worse. The only franchise QBs you can find as FAs are those that failed with the team that drafted them for some reason. (Think Jake Plummer and David Carr).

            The point is that to have an elite line you need elite DTs and the only way to get them is to draft them, and the only way to draft them (generally speaking) is to draft them in the first or second round. Because, as you can see from that chart, your chances of getting a starting DT past the 2nd round are about 1 in 5. And to hope to get an elite one are probably a lot worse than that.

            Shanahan ignored this problem, because he thought he could always find the players he needed via FA. Well, in this case he was wrong. And now the Broncos are paying the price.
            sigpic

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