Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Statistics and their relevance

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    If someone doesn't care about stats then they shouldn't judge a QB. You can judge an organization, a team, or a head coach strictly with wins and losses but you absolutely have to include stats if you're trying to judge a qb with any credibility.

    If someone is simply saying that they don't care what happens, they just want to win, then fine. If that's true then they shouldn't be criticizing any individual player. No individual player is solely responsible for wins and losses.

    When a QB has mediocre stats and the team still wins, I don't give the QB credit. At the same time, if a QB has great stats and the team loses, I don't put the blame for the loss on that QB. He did his part. Stats should always be factored in if you're talking about an individual player. Obviously, it's best to actually watch the player's performance as well as look at the stats.
    2 of the top 3 NFL QBs of all time have been Broncos

    Comment


    • #17
      Stats tell the story in most cases, they're also vital for game preparation and such from a coaching point of view, but I agree that certain personal stats may not be telling the whole story...
      I was surprised to learn that "QB sacks" were not a stat they have always kept, they've only been doing it for ~25 years, maybe?
      sigpic
      I've started with almost nothing and still got most of it

      Comment


      • #18
        Chill, Bro.

        Originally posted by MJA View Post
        Glad to see that extremism hasn't died out yet. If you want to ignore stats entirely thats your choosing, just don't be surprised when people think that you have no idea what you are talking about. You used a extremely small sample size, which is never a good idea if you want a accurate measurement.

        Just look at the situation stats for QB's on NFL.com and tell me that those aren't useful for analyzing a QB's ability. You can look at performance by quarter, half, pass attempts and field position. You can then use your knowledge of watching the game and apply it to the statistics you see in order to come up with a reason for why the player did or did not perform well. For example, Cutler's bad 1-20 statistics show that it's probably due to bad decision making (A 46.4 Completion Percentage and 4 INT's) and also can be the fact that Denver really didn't have a running back who could run through defenders and score (Since Pittman got injured).


        As I stated before, you need to use both stats and watching of football games to form a intelligent opinion.

        That's ok though, just call people who use stats "losers". That stereotype isn't old or anything.
        No disrespect intended. I'm just playin' with ya.

        Actually, you are talking to the only HS football statistician in NM who used Roman Numerals.

        By the way, "stats are for losers" is a very common expression around football teams. At about midnight on many a Friday night in the past, I used it to keep all those assistant coaches from pestering me.:hammer:
        "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by dragster69 View Post
          Stats tell the story in most cases, they're also vital for game preparation and such from a coaching point of view, but I agree that certain personal stats may not be telling the whole story...
          I was surprised to learn that "QB sacks" were not a stat they have always kept, they've only been doing it for ~25 years, maybe?
          That's what I am saying. It's not "You are either 100% stats or 100% watching the game". If you want to truly understand the game you need to look at both.
          http://goallineblitz.com/game/signup.pl?ref=30412676
          MMO Football Game

          I like McDaniels, he will be a good coach. Just not for this team. Belichick needed his Cleveland stint to become the coach he is now and McDaniels is showing the same signs.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by samparnell View Post
            No disrespect intended. I'm just playin' with ya.

            Actually, you are talking to the only HS football statistician in NM who used Roman Numerals.

            By the way, "stats are for losers" is a very common expression around football teams. At about midnight on many a Friday night in the past, I used it to keep all those assistant coaches from pestering me.:hammer:
            I apologize then, I just get worked up sometimes when people choose to ignore statistics completely when it comes to analyzing football.

            We cool
            http://goallineblitz.com/game/signup.pl?ref=30412676
            MMO Football Game

            I like McDaniels, he will be a good coach. Just not for this team. Belichick needed his Cleveland stint to become the coach he is now and McDaniels is showing the same signs.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by BroncsSB#3 View Post
              If someone doesn't care about stats then they shouldn't judge a QB. You can judge an organization, a team, or a head coach strictly with wins and losses but you absolutely have to include stats if you're trying to judge a qb with any credibility.

              If someone is simply saying that they don't care what happens, they just want to win, then fine. If that's true then they shouldn't be criticizing any individual player. No individual player is solely responsible for wins and losses.

              When a QB has mediocre stats and the team still wins, I don't give the QB credit. At the same time, if a QB has great stats and the team loses, I don't put the blame for the loss on that QB. He did his part. Stats should always be factored in if you're talking about an individual player. Obviously, it's best to actually watch the player's performance as well as look at the stats.


              In Madden the statistics might be the end all be all, but if you go back and review succesful teams you tend to find that the stats used in arguments here are only somewhat relevant.

              There is a huge difference in the relevance of ex. an interception. There are statistics for points after turnovers, but it does not factor into a QBs statistics, so you cannot give a free pass to a QB just for his statistical performance.

              MJA made a good argument for the relevance of the statistics, but at the flipside it also highlights the shortcomings

              When the teams that made the playoffs had QB rankings based on yards of (2,5,6,7,9,13,14,15,17,20,24,27), that means that the (1,3,4,8,10,11,12,16...) did not make it. This means that 50% of the "top" 16 teams made it and 50% did not. To me that is pretty much the definition of statistical irrelevance.

              It just shows that the stats are good precusrors - but that is all.
              Last edited by BroncoFanDK; 06-21-2009, 10:40 AM.

              Comment


              • #22
                Stats are great for fantasy football, but they never tell the whole story.

                Statistically speaking, Kurt Warner is either a great QB or worthless depending on what team he was on. Edgerrin James was one of the best RBs in the league statistically before hitting the wall in Arizona. Randy Moss was on a record-setting pace in Minnesota only to disappear in Oakland then return to greatness in New England.

                QBs get credited with wins and losses because as an individual they are the player that impacts the final score the most. Assuming that the entire unit ebbs and flows the entire game to keep the game close, you can usually pick out a few plays down the stretch by the QB that determines the game's outcome.

                Case in point: Everybody knows that the Giants defense dominated in their SB win. The team as a unit kept the game very close, but at the end, Eli had to make the plays under pressure without the help from the defense. A lesser QB would have lost that game. That's a perfect example of why a QB earns the credit of wins and the burden of losses.
                Last edited by Lomax; 06-21-2009, 12:33 PM.
                "Pey-Pey to Bay-Bay for the Tay Day!!"

                sigpic

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by BroncoFanDK View Post
                  In Madden the statistics might be the end all be all, but if you go back and review succesful teams you tend to find that the stats used in arguments here are only somewhat relevant.

                  There is a huge difference in the relevance of ex. an interception. There are statistics for points after turnovers, but it does not factor into a QBs statistics, so you cannot give a free pass to a QB just for his statistical performance.

                  MJA made a good argument for the relevance of the statistics, but at the flipside it also highlights the shortcomings

                  When the teams that made the playoffs had QB rankings based on yards of (2,5,6,7,9,13,14,15,17,20,24,27), that means that the (1,3,4,8,10,11,12,16...) did not make it. This means that 50% of the "top" 16 teams made it and 50% did not. To me that is pretty much the definition of statistical irrelevance.

                  It just shows that the stats are good precusrors - but that is all.
                  Actually you just made my argument for me. My point was that a Top QB was statistically irrelevant for getting into the playoffs. Thats why I posted the defensive points per game. 11 out of the top 15 made the playoffs. The entire top 15 finished at least .500 and the Patriots, ranked 8th, finished 11-5.

                  My point was that a defense who prevents points is more important than a top QB when it comes to winning and making the playoffs.
                  http://goallineblitz.com/game/signup.pl?ref=30412676
                  MMO Football Game

                  I like McDaniels, he will be a good coach. Just not for this team. Belichick needed his Cleveland stint to become the coach he is now and McDaniels is showing the same signs.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by MJA View Post
                    Actually you just made my argument for me. My point was that a Top QB was statistically irrelevant for getting into the playoffs. Thats why I posted the defensive points per game. 11 out of the top 15 made the playoffs. The entire top 15 finished at least .500 and the Patriots, ranked 8th, finished 11-5.

                    My point was that a defense who prevents points is more important than a top QB when it comes to winning and making the playoffs.
                    I also want to reiterate, I don't believe stats are the be all end all. You need to use them in conjunction with what you see on the field to make the most intelligent opinion possible.
                    http://goallineblitz.com/game/signup.pl?ref=30412676
                    MMO Football Game

                    I like McDaniels, he will be a good coach. Just not for this team. Belichick needed his Cleveland stint to become the coach he is now and McDaniels is showing the same signs.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by MJA View Post
                      Actually you just made my argument for me. My point was that a Top QB was statistically irrelevant for getting into the playoffs. Thats why I posted the defensive points per game. 11 out of the top 15 made the playoffs. The entire top 15 finished at least .500 and the Patriots, ranked 8th, finished 11-5.

                      My point was that a defense who prevents points is more important than a top QB when it comes to winning and making the playoffs.
                      The other way you can look at it is that total yardage is the wrong stat to use when evaluating a QB (or at least not the most important one).
                      "Pey-Pey to Bay-Bay for the Tay Day!!"

                      sigpic

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Scary McDaniels quote

                        McDaniels said the old most games are decided by 1 TD line?

                        That brings back terrible memories of a coach named Wanny. You guys may remember him as a former coach for both the Bears and the Dolphins... both teams were in complete dissaray by the time he left. He currently coaches Pitt.

                        That was his old spiel game after game... "Der uhhm... well yeah we just had to make 1 more extra play... the game is decided by 1 or 2 plays and we just didn't make that 1 play."

                        It's an old football saying that people love and I know a ton of coaches use it... but I never want to hear that phrase again.

                        Anyhow... as for the stats. You are right about some intangibles but those intangibles end up being reflected in the stats. For example... the hard count and getting D's to jump offsides. The team ends up with an extra first down or maybe a big play because he can just heave it up and see what happens with no fear of the negative consequences. He either gets more attemps/yards or a big play... so it shows up. Just like the Plummer example... it shows up with a few big plays down field from fooling the D.

                        A football team is essentially 3 teams in 1. The offense, defense, and special teams. I think that's why stats are seperated as they are... you can see how good an offense or defense is independant of the results as wins or losses. You can usually look at the stats and see who won a game (I mean minus scoring of coarse... because then you definately can). There are exceptions maybe 2 times a year... but other times the stats usually tell the story.
                        Understand that I am a Bears fan but also that I have followed Orton's career. His ability to improve himself makes him a very easy guy to cheer for. I am here because I will continue to cheer for Orton unless his success interferes with the success of the Bears.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Stats that matter: points scored, points allowed and how they occurred. You can make lots of throws, gain lots of yards but if you did not score you just wasted time and energy (unless you're trying to run down the clock).
                          sigpic

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Lomax View Post
                            The other way you can look at it is that total yardage is the wrong stat to use when evaluating a QB (or at least not the most important one).
                            Fair enough.

                            Here are some other QB stat rankings for playoff teams (The x/15 represents how many of the rankings were in the top 15)

                            Here is Completion Percentage: (1,2,3,7,17,18,19,20,21,22,24,26) 4/15

                            Here is TD's: (2,3,5,8,10,12,15,16,17,20,24,24) 7/15

                            Here is QB Rating: (1,2,3,5,11,14,14,18,22,23,24,28) 7/15

                            All are 50% or lower.

                            Now here are some defensive stats

                            Points per game: (1,2,3,4,5,7,9,11,12,13,15,28) 11/15 (11-5 Patriots were in the top 15 also)

                            Yards per game: (1,2,3,5,6,7,11,15,18,19,24,25) 8/15

                            Turnovers: (1,4,5,8,10,11,14,15,16,19,25,29) 8/15

                            Now the x/15 stat for defense and QB play seem very close (Except for completion percentage and points per game). However, notice how few teams ranked low in the 20's for the defensive stats and compared to the QB ones.

                            From these stats it seems that when it comes to making the playoffs, points per game is much more of an important stat than any QB stat I found. 73.3% of teams in the top 15 of defensive points per game made the playoffs (80% if you consider the Patriots 11-5 record that would have made the playoffs in pretty much any year).
                            http://goallineblitz.com/game/signup.pl?ref=30412676
                            MMO Football Game

                            I like McDaniels, he will be a good coach. Just not for this team. Belichick needed his Cleveland stint to become the coach he is now and McDaniels is showing the same signs.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Roddoliver View Post
                              Stats that matter: points scored, points allowed and how they occurred. You can make lots of throws, gain lots of yards but if you did not score you just wasted time and energy (unless you're trying to run down the clock).
                              :clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:
                              sigpic

                              I adopt andrewmlb.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Roddoliver View Post
                                Stats that matter: points scored, points allowed and how they occurred. You can make lots of throws, gain lots of yards but if you did not score you just wasted time and energy (unless you're trying to run down the clock).
                                It is impossible to score on offense without gaining yardage. So there would be no scoring without the yards gained by running, passing, and penalties. Yardage is right up there behind scoring, because it has everything to do with gaining points and "how they occurred".

                                The NFL rates "total offense" by yardage gained and "total defense" by yardage allowed. If you don't like it then take it up with them, but it obviously matters or they wouldn't do it like that.

                                It just seems like people who want to discredit Cutler or last year's offense have suddenly stopped caring about yards all together and act like yardage isn't important at all. You can't score without gaining yards first.
                                Last edited by BroncsSB#3; 06-21-2009, 09:40 PM.
                                2 of the top 3 NFL QBs of all time have been Broncos

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X