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Statistics and their relevance

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  • samparnell
    replied
    Originally posted by Shsonline View Post
    Because stats are concrete. Without stats, arguments would be based on pure biased opinion (i.e. they would be worthless).
    Arguments are probably more of a fan's point of view.

    When coaches break down film with players working on a game plan, I doubt if stats play much of a role.

    Defensive game plans are totally based on the opposing offense's situational tendencies (i.e., down and distance, field position, hash mark, etc.), but those stats are not for the fans being strictly in-house. Those stats are to help the DC make the calls.

    Offenses watch film in order to help them read the D. The C studies the opposing front seven in order to make line calls and those are practiced on the field in preparation for game day. The QB studies a ton of film in an attempt to recognize what he sees pre-snap.

    Not too many stats there. It's mostly visual. Post-game film study helps position coaches isolate and correct fundamental problems in the technique of individual players.

    Team stats are useful in showing areas that need improvement, but most of that stuff is known by players and coaches alike (some fans, too) right after a game without needing statistics except for quantification.
    Last edited by samparnell; 06-22-2009, 12:22 PM.

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  • Shsonline
    replied
    Because stats are concrete. Without stats, arguments would be based on pure biased opinion (i.e. they would be worthless).

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  • MJA
    replied
    Originally posted by pzmire View Post
    Reminds me of the story:

    There were 3 racers: USA, Russia, and China (Nothing racial, just as I heard it) Chinese finished 1st, USA 2nd and Russia third

    The Russian report read: RUSSIA WINS BRONZE MEDAL !!!! ... USA finishes next to last, ... Chinese barely edge out USA

    Stats can be made to prove anything you want - Wins are still the only stat that trully matters
    But you determine how and why you won by looking at the statistics that make up those wins. If you want to look at football at it's most basic level thats fine, but others like me want to delve deeper to see why someone won and what winning teams have in common. That's why I posted all those QB stats, to show that being in the top 15 really meant nothing in terms of going to the playoffs (Less than 50% chance in terms of yards, TD's, Completion Percentage and QB Rating). However, the 11 out of the top 15 defenses in points per game made the playoffs (73.3%).

    Think of it like a treasure map. Wins and Losses are the "X marks the spot" and statistics represent the path you take to get to the "X".

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  • broncobruj
    replied
    Originally posted by Poindexter View Post
    Fantastic post! A lot more objective than many I have read recently.

    I would just like to add one thing. Basing a players performance by their combine running time means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Being able to run in a straight line with no pads on and no pressure to do anything else does not make you a good football player. It makes you a good track star. Unfortunately, being a track star doesn't win football games.
    You're right, that's why they have a shuttle event at the combine as well...guess where your boy Smith was...about the bottom...

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  • pzmire
    replied
    Originally posted by iowabronco24 View Post
    Yes, but at the end of the day, the only stat that matters is the W/L. I'm guessing many of you don't sit there pissed off after a win because we played terrible, and I'm guessing many of you aren't happy after we lose because we played a solid game. The truth about stats is you can pretty much spin them anyway you please, which makes them very misleading. Then there is the problem of opinion on which stats are more important and which stats are meaningless, and really you can sit there and argue all day and both sides will think they are right, and probably, the stats they came up with back there thoughts. Its just really hard sometimes to say that this stat matters more than that one, because there are so many different situations that may come into play as well (playing conditions as an example).
    Reminds me of the story:

    There were 3 racers: USA, Russia, and China (Nothing racial, just as I heard it) Chinese finished 1st, USA 2nd and Russia third

    The Russian report read: RUSSIA WINS BRONZE MEDAL !!!! ... USA finishes next to last, ... Chinese barely edge out USA

    Stats can be made to prove anything you want - Wins are still the only stat that trully matters

    Leave a comment:


  • samparnell
    replied
    Originally posted by iowabronco24 View Post
    Yes, but at the end of the day, the only stat that matters is the W/L. I'm guessing many of you don't sit there pissed off after a win because we played terrible, and I'm guessing many of you aren't happy after we lose because we played a solid game. The truth about stats is you can pretty much spin them anyway you please, which makes them very misleading. Then there is the problem of opinion on which stats are more important and which stats are meaningless, and really you can sit there and argue all day and both sides will think they are right, and probably, the stats they came up with back there thoughts. Its just really hard sometimes to say that this stat matters more than that one, because there are so many different situations that may come into play as well (playing conditions as an example).
    I had my wife sit down with me once to watch a Bill Parcells post-game press conference. He was pretty grumpy ... you know ... like he always is.

    My wife asked, "What's his problem? Did they lose?"

    I said, "No. This is what he's like after a win."

    Don't be talkin' any stats with Bill.

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  • iowabronco24
    replied
    Yes, but at the end of the day, the only stat that matters is the W/L. I'm guessing many of you don't sit there pissed off after a win because we played terrible, and I'm guessing many of you aren't happy after we lose because we played a solid game. The truth about stats is you can pretty much spin them anyway you please, which makes them very misleading. Then there is the problem of opinion on which stats are more important and which stats are meaningless, and really you can sit there and argue all day and both sides will think they are right, and probably, the stats they came up with back there thoughts. Its just really hard sometimes to say that this stat matters more than that one, because there are so many different situations that may come into play as well (playing conditions as an example).

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  • draco193
    replied
    Stats are important for planning, looking for tendencies, helping to rate players, etc etc. Metrics ar mor eimportant though, becaus ethey give more context to stats.

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  • BroncsSB#3
    replied
    Originally posted by Roddoliver View Post
    Stats that matter: points scored, points allowed and how they occurred. You can make lots of throws, gain lots of yards but if you did not score you just wasted time and energy (unless you're trying to run down the clock).
    It is impossible to score on offense without gaining yardage. So there would be no scoring without the yards gained by running, passing, and penalties. Yardage is right up there behind scoring, because it has everything to do with gaining points and "how they occurred".

    The NFL rates "total offense" by yardage gained and "total defense" by yardage allowed. If you don't like it then take it up with them, but it obviously matters or they wouldn't do it like that.

    It just seems like people who want to discredit Cutler or last year's offense have suddenly stopped caring about yards all together and act like yardage isn't important at all. You can't score without gaining yards first.
    Last edited by BroncsSB#3; 06-21-2009, 08:40 PM.

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  • McSmashie
    replied
    Originally posted by Roddoliver View Post
    Stats that matter: points scored, points allowed and how they occurred. You can make lots of throws, gain lots of yards but if you did not score you just wasted time and energy (unless you're trying to run down the clock).
    :clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

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  • MJA
    replied
    Originally posted by Lomax View Post
    The other way you can look at it is that total yardage is the wrong stat to use when evaluating a QB (or at least not the most important one).
    Fair enough.

    Here are some other QB stat rankings for playoff teams (The x/15 represents how many of the rankings were in the top 15)

    Here is Completion Percentage: (1,2,3,7,17,18,19,20,21,22,24,26) 4/15

    Here is TD's: (2,3,5,8,10,12,15,16,17,20,24,24) 7/15

    Here is QB Rating: (1,2,3,5,11,14,14,18,22,23,24,28) 7/15

    All are 50% or lower.

    Now here are some defensive stats

    Points per game: (1,2,3,4,5,7,9,11,12,13,15,28) 11/15 (11-5 Patriots were in the top 15 also)

    Yards per game: (1,2,3,5,6,7,11,15,18,19,24,25) 8/15

    Turnovers: (1,4,5,8,10,11,14,15,16,19,25,29) 8/15

    Now the x/15 stat for defense and QB play seem very close (Except for completion percentage and points per game). However, notice how few teams ranked low in the 20's for the defensive stats and compared to the QB ones.

    From these stats it seems that when it comes to making the playoffs, points per game is much more of an important stat than any QB stat I found. 73.3% of teams in the top 15 of defensive points per game made the playoffs (80% if you consider the Patriots 11-5 record that would have made the playoffs in pretty much any year).

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  • -Rod-
    replied
    Stats that matter: points scored, points allowed and how they occurred. You can make lots of throws, gain lots of yards but if you did not score you just wasted time and energy (unless you're trying to run down the clock).

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  • psychobear
    replied
    Scary McDaniels quote

    McDaniels said the old most games are decided by 1 TD line?

    That brings back terrible memories of a coach named Wanny. You guys may remember him as a former coach for both the Bears and the Dolphins... both teams were in complete dissaray by the time he left. He currently coaches Pitt.

    That was his old spiel game after game... "Der uhhm... well yeah we just had to make 1 more extra play... the game is decided by 1 or 2 plays and we just didn't make that 1 play."

    It's an old football saying that people love and I know a ton of coaches use it... but I never want to hear that phrase again.

    Anyhow... as for the stats. You are right about some intangibles but those intangibles end up being reflected in the stats. For example... the hard count and getting D's to jump offsides. The team ends up with an extra first down or maybe a big play because he can just heave it up and see what happens with no fear of the negative consequences. He either gets more attemps/yards or a big play... so it shows up. Just like the Plummer example... it shows up with a few big plays down field from fooling the D.

    A football team is essentially 3 teams in 1. The offense, defense, and special teams. I think that's why stats are seperated as they are... you can see how good an offense or defense is independant of the results as wins or losses. You can usually look at the stats and see who won a game (I mean minus scoring of coarse... because then you definately can). There are exceptions maybe 2 times a year... but other times the stats usually tell the story.

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  • Lomax
    replied
    Originally posted by MJA View Post
    Actually you just made my argument for me. My point was that a Top QB was statistically irrelevant for getting into the playoffs. Thats why I posted the defensive points per game. 11 out of the top 15 made the playoffs. The entire top 15 finished at least .500 and the Patriots, ranked 8th, finished 11-5.

    My point was that a defense who prevents points is more important than a top QB when it comes to winning and making the playoffs.
    The other way you can look at it is that total yardage is the wrong stat to use when evaluating a QB (or at least not the most important one).

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  • MJA
    replied
    Originally posted by MJA View Post
    Actually you just made my argument for me. My point was that a Top QB was statistically irrelevant for getting into the playoffs. Thats why I posted the defensive points per game. 11 out of the top 15 made the playoffs. The entire top 15 finished at least .500 and the Patriots, ranked 8th, finished 11-5.

    My point was that a defense who prevents points is more important than a top QB when it comes to winning and making the playoffs.
    I also want to reiterate, I don't believe stats are the be all end all. You need to use them in conjunction with what you see on the field to make the most intelligent opinion possible.

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