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Is 21-30 yards deep enough...some intersting split stats for Orton

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  • #46
    Originally posted by topscribe View Post
    I see you have not been here long, so maybe you're not totally aware of the
    protocol. We already have mods here. Don't try to be one.

    -----
    Thanks for assuming I have a title, but really I don't. You just seem to get riled easily so I am having a little fun at your expense.
    I enjoy pointing out where one holds a standard to someone else that they don't hold to themselves. But I do the same, so feel free to call me out when you see it.

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by username1 View Post
      Thanks for assuming I have a title, but really I don't. You just seem to get riled easily so I am having a little fun at your expense.
      I enjoy pointing out where one holds a standard to someone else that they don't hold to themselves. But I do the same, so feel free to call me out when you see it.
      I'm not going to try to be a mod, either. So, no, I will not do that.

      And you have no idea what I seem to "get." I am very tired of trolls from your
      Bears boards, those who have made an agenda of bashing Orton and telling us
      how superior Cutler is to Orton. My patience with them has drawn thin.

      But I see where you have admitted to flaming and baiting. Just advice to the
      wise: That is illegal on this board.

      -----

      Comment


      • #48
        The big factor for me is the yard per completion stat... If you complete the pass, you want more yards.

        Pass 01-10 Yards: 171 completions for 8.99 YPC
        Pass 11-20 Yards: 32 completions for 19.22 YPC
        Pass 21-30 Yards: 17 completions for 27.76 YPC
        Pass 31+ Yards: 1 completion for a 37.00 YPC
        Overall: 272 completions for 10.93 YPC

        One thing that caught my eye was that he often completed his passes closer to the upper end of the range in his passes under 30 yards.

        Here's Cutler for comparison...
        Pass 01-10 Yards: 198 completions for 8.78 YPC
        Pass 11-20 Yards: 82 completions for 16.43 YPC
        Pass 21-30 Yards: 23 completions for 32.65 YPC
        Pass 31+ Yards: 4 completions for 48.25 YPC
        Overall: 384 completions for 11.79 YPC

        Orton has an advantage in pass completions under 20 yards and was solid enough in the 21-30 range. I also thought it was interesting that for the physical differences, Cutler still averaged just under 1 yard more per completion than Kyle Orton did.
        "I will pray for you. I will pray for you. I will sell my soul for something pure and true... someone like you." - Garbage #1 Crush

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by topscribe View Post
          I'm not going to try to be a mod, either. So, no, I will not do that.

          And you have no idea what I seem to "get." I am very tired of trolls from your
          Bears boards, those who have made an agenda of bashing Orton and telling us
          how superior Cutler is to Orton. My patience with them has drawn thin.

          But I see where you have admitted to flaming and baiting. Just advice to the
          wise: That is illegal on this board.

          -----
          I know what you get, believe me. I am on a few sports message boards and the same thing happens on them all. Bronco,Packer, and Viking all show up and bash Bear players and the team. I assume it is the same here. I am here though because I grew up in Colo and am a Bronco fan 2nd.
          I have no interest in bashing Orton or the team, I like them both. I just have problems with people skewing stats to look the way they want, or being hostile towards someone who disagrees. So if it seems like I am bashing, sorry I will try to put forth my opinions in a more palatable manner.

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by DawnBTVS View Post
            The big factor for me is the yard per completion stat... If you complete the pass, you want more yards.

            Pass 01-10 Yards: 171 completions for 8.99 YPC
            Pass 11-20 Yards: 32 completions for 19.22 YPC
            Pass 21-30 Yards: 17 completions for 27.76 YPC
            Pass 31+ Yards: 1 completion for a 37.00 YPC
            Overall: 272 completions for 10.93 YPC

            One thing that caught my eye was that he often completed his passes closer to the upper end of the range in his passes under 30 yards.

            Here's Cutler for comparison...
            Pass 01-10 Yards: 198 completions for 8.78 YPC
            Pass 11-20 Yards: 82 completions for 16.43 YPC
            Pass 21-30 Yards: 23 completions for 32.65 YPC
            Pass 31+ Yards: 4 completions for 48.25 YPC
            Overall: 384 completions for 11.79 YPC

            Orton has an advantage in pass completions under 20 yards and was solid enough in the 21-30 range. I also thought it was interesting that for the physical differences, Cutler still averaged just under 1 yard more per completion than Kyle Orton did.
            Yards per average I would think would be a better way to evaluate. Think about it this way, if I threw 100 throws 41+ and miss on 99 of them and the 1 I connect goes for 50 yards, that would mean I’m awesome using your evaluation method, when in reality I would be pretty bad. You need to take into the times you miss, taking the average would do that.

            Your giving no penalty for an incomplete by just looking at the yards per catch, rather then the yards per average.

            One thing that caught my eye was that he often completed his passes closer to the upper end of the range in his passes under 30 yards.
            No he didn’t it looks that way but there is Run after the catch in his totals for yards he got in each category.

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by neckbeard
              Why is he "flawed?"
              Originally posted by MJA View Post
              Well some flaws I noticed are his completion percentage (25th)...
              That was badly skewed by Kyle playing 7 games on a seriously injured ankle. His completion percentage in the 7 games before he was hurt was 62.2%. That would have landed him @ #15 - just behind Jay Cutler and just ahead of Tony Romo.

              Originally posted by MJA View Post
              ...when he throws more than 10 passes in a game his stats start to slide harshly and his poor performance in the second half (He is a 1st Quarter freak with a 116.1 QB Rating, 6 TD's and 0 INT's).
              I believe that was more of a function of the playcalling and coaching than any "flaw" in Kyle's abilities.

              Ron Turner is really pretty good at scripting out the first 10-15 plays of the game (most OCs do this). So the Bears Offense would tend to come out hot and score early. But as the game progressed and the opposing DC would make adjustments to counter what Turner had the Bears doing, ol' Ronnie would fail to make any sort of adjustment at all. Or else he'd actually abandon whatever was working in some sort of misguided attempt to avoid being "predictable." This would usually become the most pronounced in the 3rd Qtr, when the opposing DC was able to sit down to devise effective adjustments while Ronnie apparently treated Halftime simply as a bathroom break...

              Originally posted by MJA View Post
              The second and third issues will be interesting to watch as Orton adopts a much better running game (If Moreno pans out) and a better receiving core. If he can't do well in this offense then the blame falls squarely on him.
              I see no reason for Orton fail in Denver's Offense. He's fully recovered from his ankle injury. Playing out of the shotgun in a spread offense similar to the one he was so successful with at Purdue. With a coach who actually knows how to run an Offense. Behind a solid o-line. Throwing to WRs who are worth a damn.

              Kyle was succeeding in a horrible Bears Offense before he was hurt. The Offense he's now running in Denver takes away all of the impediments he faced in Chicago and actually plays to his strengths. Orton personally will probably have a ridiculously successful season this year...
              "That's a crap question."
              - Kyle Orton

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by dbldrew View Post
                Yards per average I would think would be a better way to evaluate. Think about it this way, if I threw 100 throws 41+ and miss on 99 of them and the 1 I connect goes for 50 yards, that would mean I’m awesome using your evaluation method, when in reality I would be pretty bad. You need to take into the times you miss, taking the average would do that.

                Your giving no penalty for an incomplete by just looking at the yards per catch, rather then the yards per average.
                Fair enough, here's their YPA averages.

                Kyle Orton
                Passes 01-10 Yards: 5.90 on 260 Attempts
                Passes 11-20 Yards: 7.15 on 86 Attempts
                Passes 21-30 Yards: 10.26 on 46 Attempts
                Passes 31+ Yards: 3.36 on 11 Attempts

                Jay Cutler
                Passes 01-10 Yards: 6.10 on 285 Attempts
                Passes 11-20 Yards: 8.64 on 156 Attempts
                Passes 21-30 Yards: 14.17 on 53 Attempts
                Passes 31+ Yards: 7.15 on 27 Attempts

                Also for your comment, I wouldn't call it awesome because you only completed 1 pass for 50 yards. The reason I said Orton had an advantage underneath was mainly because he got almost 3 more yards on passes 11-20 (that also includes yards after catch, I'm fully aware so it's not just Orton) on far fewer pass attempts overall and as a result, fewer completions. It also shows that Orton at the very least, could help set up receivers to get RAC yards (or YAC).

                The other thing is that Orton maximized his completions because he didn't have as many attempts as Cutler did and had a poor completion % overall. A good system will hopefully increase his completion % and also further maximize his completions. A guy who completes passes for 19 yards is more valuable than a guy who does it for 17 yards. It's just a matter of consistency (i.e. completion %).

                Here's how other QBs did...
                Kyle Orton Passes 11-20: 32 of 86 for 19.22 YPC
                Jay Cutler Passes 11-20: 82 of 156 for 16.43 YPC
                Drew Brees Passes 11-20: 83 of 139 for 17.65 YPC
                Ben Roethlisberger Passes 11-20: 61 of 132 for 16.95 YPC
                Tony Romo Passes 11-20: 48 of 96 for 18.27 YPC
                Matt Cassel Passes 11-20: 54 of 116 for 15.28 YPC

                If you boost Orton's attempts up to even just 115 and keep everything else relative, he suddenly gets 43 completions and an additional 211 yards passing. Completions are a by product of pass attempts and if you're a guy with low pass attempts like Orton was, you need to hit big on the completions that you do make (which includes completing at a high % as well).

                The "penalty" in YPC is the inherent low completion numbers. A guy with a high completion % will have more completions in general than a guy with a low completion %. If a guy has only 85 attempts in the 11-20 pass range, odds are, he won't be completing 80+ of them like Cutler and Drew Brees were able to do and therefore has to complete his passes at a higher YPC number because he has less attempts to do so with.
                "I will pray for you. I will pray for you. I will sell my soul for something pure and true... someone like you." - Garbage #1 Crush

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by DawnBTVS View Post
                  The big factor for me is the yard per completion stat... If you complete the pass, you want more yards.

                  Pass 01-10 Yards: 171 completions for 8.99 YPC
                  Pass 11-20 Yards: 32 completions for 19.22 YPC
                  Pass 21-30 Yards: 17 completions for 27.76 YPC
                  Pass 31+ Yards: 1 completion for a 37.00 YPC
                  Overall: 272 completions for 10.93 YPC

                  One thing that caught my eye was that he often completed his passes closer to the upper end of the range in his passes under 30 yards.

                  Here's Cutler for comparison...
                  Pass 01-10 Yards: 198 completions for 8.78 YPC
                  Pass 11-20 Yards: 82 completions for 16.43 YPC
                  Pass 21-30 Yards: 23 completions for 32.65 YPC
                  Pass 31+ Yards: 4 completions for 48.25 YPC
                  Overall: 384 completions for 11.79 YPC

                  Orton has an advantage in pass completions under 20 yards and was solid enough in the 21-30 range. I also thought it was interesting that for the physical differences, Cutler still averaged just under 1 yard more per completion than Kyle Orton did.
                  Originally posted by dbldrew View Post
                  Yards per average I would think would be a better way to evaluate. Think about it this way, if I threw 100 throws 41+ and miss on 99 of them and the 1 I connect goes for 50 yards, that would mean I’m awesome using your evaluation method, when in reality I would be pretty bad. You need to take into the times you miss, taking the average would do that.

                  Your giving no penalty for an incomplete by just looking at the yards per catch, rather then the yards per average.



                  No he didn’t it looks that way but there is Run after the catch in his totals for yards he got in each category.
                  Originally posted by DawnBTVS View Post
                  Fair enough, here's their YPA averages.

                  Kyle Orton
                  Passes 01-10 Yards: 5.90 on 260 Attempts
                  Passes 11-20 Yards: 7.15 on 86 Attempts
                  Passes 21-30 Yards: 10.26 on 46 Attempts
                  Passes 31+ Yards: 3.36 on 11 Attempts

                  Jay Cutler
                  Passes 01-10 Yards: 6.10 on 285 Attempts
                  Passes 11-20 Yards: 8.64 on 156 Attempts
                  Passes 21-30 Yards: 14.17 on 53 Attempts
                  Passes 31+ Yards: 7.15 on 27 Attempts

                  Also for your comment, I wouldn't call it awesome because you only completed 1 pass for 50 yards. The reason I said Orton had an advantage underneath was mainly because he got almost 3 more yards on passes 11-20 (that also includes yards after catch, I'm fully aware so it's not just Orton) on far fewer pass attempts overall and as a result, fewer completions. It also shows that Orton at the very least, could help set up receivers to get RAC yards (or YAC).

                  The other thing is that Orton maximized his completions because he didn't have as many attempts as Cutler did and had a poor completion % overall. A good system will hopefully increase his completion % and also further maximize his completions. A guy who completes passes for 19 yards is more valuable than a guy who does it for 17 yards. It's just a matter of consistency (i.e. completion %).

                  Here's how other QBs did...
                  Kyle Orton Passes 11-20: 32 of 86 for 19.22 YPC
                  Jay Cutler Passes 11-20: 82 of 156 for 16.43 YPC
                  Drew Brees Passes 11-20: 83 of 139 for 17.65 YPC
                  Ben Roethlisberger Passes 11-20: 61 of 132 for 16.95 YPC
                  Tony Romo Passes 11-20: 48 of 96 for 18.27 YPC
                  Matt Cassel Passes 11-20: 54 of 116 for 15.28 YPC

                  If you boost Orton's attempts up to even just 115 and keep everything else relative, he suddenly gets 43 completions and an additional 211 yards passing. Completions are a by product of pass attempts and if you're a guy with low pass attempts like Orton was, you need to hit big on the completions that you do make (which includes completing at a high % as well).

                  The "penalty" in YPC is the inherent low completion numbers. A guy with a high completion % will have more completions in general than a guy with a low completion %. If a guy has only 85 attempts in the 11-20 pass range, odds are, he won't be completing 80+ of them like Cutler and Drew Brees were able to do and therefore has to complete his passes at a higher YPC number because he has less attempts to do so with.
                  Now, I'm enjoying this. Good discussion and documentation.

                  CPs coming . . .

                  -----

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    And my cat Elway beat up my cat Montana.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by DawnBTVS View Post
                      Fair enough, here's their YPA averages.

                      Kyle Orton
                      Passes 01-10 Yards: 5.90 on 260 Attempts
                      Passes 11-20 Yards: 7.15 on 86 Attempts
                      Passes 21-30 Yards: 10.26 on 46 Attempts
                      Passes 31+ Yards: 3.36 on 11 Attempts

                      Jay Cutler
                      Passes 01-10 Yards: 6.10 on 285 Attempts
                      Passes 11-20 Yards: 8.64 on 156 Attempts
                      Passes 21-30 Yards: 14.17 on 53 Attempts
                      Passes 31+ Yards: 7.15 on 27 Attempts

                      Also for your comment, I wouldn't call it awesome because you only completed 1 pass for 50 yards. The reason I said Orton had an advantage underneath was mainly because he got almost 3 more yards on passes 11-20 (that also includes yards after catch, I'm fully aware so it's not just Orton) on far fewer pass attempts overall and as a result, fewer completions. It also shows that Orton at the very least, could help set up receivers to get RAC yards (or YAC).

                      The other thing is that Orton maximized his completions because he didn't have as many attempts as Cutler did and had a poor completion % overall. A good system will hopefully increase his completion % and also further maximize his completions. A guy who completes passes for 19 yards is more valuable than a guy who does it for 17 yards. It's just a matter of consistency (i.e. completion %).

                      Here's how other QBs did...
                      Kyle Orton Passes 11-20: 32 of 86 for 19.22 YPC
                      Jay Cutler Passes 11-20: 82 of 156 for 16.43 YPC
                      Drew Brees Passes 11-20: 83 of 139 for 17.65 YPC
                      Ben Roethlisberger Passes 11-20: 61 of 132 for 16.95 YPC
                      Tony Romo Passes 11-20: 48 of 96 for 18.27 YPC
                      Matt Cassel Passes 11-20: 54 of 116 for 15.28 YPC

                      If you boost Orton's attempts up to even just 115 and keep everything else relative, he suddenly gets 43 completions and an additional 211 yards passing. Completions are a by product of pass attempts and if you're a guy with low pass attempts like Orton was, you need to hit big on the completions that you do make (which includes completing at a high % as well).

                      The "penalty" in YPC is the inherent low completion numbers. A guy with a high completion % will have more completions in general than a guy with a low completion %. If a guy has only 85 attempts in the 11-20 pass range, odds are, he won't be completing 80+ of them like Cutler and Drew Brees were able to do and therefore has to complete his passes at a higher YPC number because he has less attempts to do so with.
                      The only way you can get more attempts is to increase your comp% to sustain more drives. There is only so many chances you can get in a game, so hypothetically adding his attempts up to 115 is a bit unrealistic considering his comp % is only 37% while most everyone on the list is 50-60% when you are completing more passes you get more chances, when you miss most of the time you don't get as many chances.

                      To rephrase my point earlier for 11-20 if I was 1 of 100 for 20yards my YPC would be 20 so I would be better then every body on your list, which again illustrates why YPC doesn't really tell us much at all. But looking at my average of .2 really tells the true tale of how bad I was in the 11-20 category.
                      Last edited by dbldrew; 06-24-2009, 10:26 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by dbldrew View Post
                        The only way you can get more attempts is to increase your comp% to sustain more drives. There is only so many chances you can get in a game, so hypothetically adding his attempts up to 115 is a bit unrealistic considering his comp % is only 37% while most everyone on the list is 50-60% when you are completing more passes you get more chances, when you miss most of the time you don't get as many chances.

                        To rephrase my point earlier for 11-20 if I was 1 of 100 for 20yards my YPC would be 20 so I would be better then every body on your list, which again illustrates why YPC doesn't really tell us much at all. But looking at my average of .2 really tells the true tale of how bad I was in the 11-20 category.
                        True on the attempts.

                        As for your point, you're looking solely at the YPC end result. Which is fine but as you've also noted, it doesn't paint the whole picture. A guy who only has 32 completions for 19.22 YPC is good but a guy with 82 completions for 16.43 YPC is better simply because they had more completions and thus more yards for his team.

                        The flipside is that a guy with a higher YPC is better just due to the maximization of yards per completion, which is the goal. You complete a pass, you want the most yards possible.

                        So it's really a matter of weighing the maximization of attempts (# of Attempts and YPA) or weighing the maximization of completions (# of Completions and YPC number).

                        As for your example, it's a rather extreme take to present your position. You could've easily just compared 2 hypothetical QBs as such...

                        QB A: 60 of 100 (60%) for a YPC of 16. 960 Yards and 9.60 YPA
                        QB B: 60 of 120 (50%) for a YPC of 18. 1080 Yards and 9.00 YPA

                        Both have the same number of completions and A has the better completion % and maximized his attempts but B maximized the actual completions.

                        Give both 10 downs... QB A roughly gets you 6 completions for 96 Yards and QB B roughly gets you 5 completions for 90 Yards. The trade off is 1 completion for 6 yards between the two. I guess now the question would be, how impactful those 6 yards are?
                        Last edited by DawnBTVS; 06-24-2009, 11:29 AM.
                        "I will pray for you. I will pray for you. I will sell my soul for something pure and true... someone like you." - Garbage #1 Crush

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by dbldrew View Post
                          Having a 102QB rating in the 21-30 yards category is pretty good, but take a look at his comp%, he is only at 37% which isn’t so good, what is more concerning is if you back it up to the 11-20 yards he still is only at 37%. Now I know a lot of you will blame the receivers or his ankle, but back in 07, and 05, he had Bernard Berrian, and Muhsin Muhammad, which are pretty good receivers and his comp% where…

                          07
                          11-20 – 23.1%
                          21-30 – 20.0%

                          05
                          11-20 – 34.3%
                          21-30 – 35.7%

                          This is the reason why he is labeled as not being able to throw the deep pass, because he cant throw past 10 yards with any kind of accuracy, he never has, he probably never will. If you guys are hoping he will put up good numbers in the deep or med game you are going to be a bit disappointed.

                          What Orton can do is dink and dunk, this he does well. Think of Brian Griese but not as good past 10 yards, and that is who you have with Orton. Now that will be good enough if you have a top 10D and a very good running game, otherwise it’s going to be a long year for you.
                          You actually thought Mohammad was a good reciever? I think the last year with the Bears he led the team in dropped passes. He even admitted to that. Kyle has had bums catching his balls. Tell me why Davis dropped countless passes that would have been 1st downs. Then how many touchdowns did bear recievers drop. Don't talk to much about those things do you.
                          Mike O.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by exultu View Post
                            You actually thought Mohammad was a good reciever? I think the last year with the Bears he led the team in dropped passes. He even admitted to that. Kyle has had bums catching his balls. Tell me why Davis dropped countless passes that would have been 1st downs. Then how many touchdowns did bear recievers drop. Don't talk to much about those things do you.
                            While you are at it, explain why the Broncos had even more drops than the Bears and why we are using that as an excuse for Orton and not Cutler.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by jhns View Post
                              While you are at it, explain why the Broncos had even more drops than the Bears and why we are using that as an excuse for Orton and not Cutler.
                              Quite simple really, fans are oblivious to any stat that won't fit into their reality. No matter how commonly known, or accepted it is.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by jhns View Post
                                While you are at it, explain why the Broncos had even more drops than the Bears and why we are using that as an excuse for Orton and not Cutler.
                                I would say, because the Broncos had alot more pass attempts.

                                Comment

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