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Is 21-30 yards deep enough...some intersting split stats for Orton

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  • #61
    Originally posted by tdadbroncfan View Post
    I would say, because the Broncos had alot more pass attempts.
    So that makes a ton more drops acceptable and means that only Orton has his numbers lowered because of drops? I would say every QB has his numbers lowered from drops and Cutler suffered from it far more than most QB's in this league. I would bet, looking at some drop numbers posted here for Chicago, that our drop % was also higher than Chicagos. He isn't coming to a team that has never dropped a ball.

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by DawnBTVS View Post
      True on the attempts.

      As for your point, you're looking solely at the YPC end result. Which is fine but as you've also noted, it doesn't paint the whole picture. A guy who only has 32 completions for 19.22 YPC is good but a guy with 82 completions for 16.43 YPC is better simply because they had more completions and thus more yards for his team.
      Not necessarily, because if the guy that had 82 comp did it in 200 attempts vs a guy with 32 comp did it in 32 attempts would be much better. The reason I like the average is it takes, yards per catch, the attempts and the completions and gives the whole picture.

      The flipside is that a guy with a higher YPC is better just due to the maximization of yards per completion, which is the goal. You complete a pass, you want the most yards possible.
      Or it could be interpreted that the receiver maximized the run after the catch, the problem with evaluating the QB on the YPC is you don’t know how many extra yards the receiver got. Was it all QB? Was it all the receiver RAC? Or a combination of both?

      So it's really a matter of weighing the maximization of attempts (# of Attempts and YPA) or weighing the maximization of completions (# of Completions and YPC number).

      As for your example, it's a rather extreme take to present your position. You could've easily just compared 2 hypothetical QBs as such...

      QB A: 60 of 100 (60%) for a YPC of 16. 960 Yards and 9.60 YPA
      QB B: 60 of 120 (50%) for a YPC of 18. 1080 Yards and 9.00 YPA
      The reason I did an extreme example is because it illustrates the flawed YPC evaluation method. Also your example should look like this…

      QB A: 60 of 100 (60%) for a YPC of 16 for 960yds and 9.6ypa
      QB B: 50 of 100 (50%) for a YPC of 18 for 900yds and 9.0ypa

      Give both QBs the same# of throws and the one with the higher comp% but a lower YPC will have more total yards a better average and will sustain more drives. Giving the guy that has a lower comp% 20 extra throws is a bit unrealistic.

      Give both 10 downs... QB A roughly gets you 6 completions for 96 Yards and QB B roughly gets you 5 completions for 90 Yards. The trade off is 1 completion for 6 yards between the two. I guess now the question would be, how impactful those 6 yards are?
      It depends if it’s 3rd and 6 lol
      But the point is QB A will more likely get his 10 downs strung together in a drive and put up points, compared to QB B which might take 2 small drives to get his 10 downs. But ultimately in this scenario there really isn’t much of a difference stats wise. But we aren’t talking about 50% and 60% comp. We where talking about Ortons 11-20 category where he is only 37% that paints a different picture, we are talking about one of the worst 11-20 comp% in the league here. Regardless of what his YPC is he isn’t going to be sustaining drives only completing 37%.

      Comment


      • #63
        So my conclusion from all the stats.....Passer rating is influenced by a lot of factors beyond the QB's control. In a game with 21 other players on the field the amount of variables such as play calling, time to throw, receiver skill level and weather makes it tough to use rate stats. With the small sample sizes accumulated by 2 QB's with less than 3 seasons as starter it's tough to use yardage and completions. This is a work in progress and both QB's should have their best football ahead of them.
        \

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by dragster69 View Post
          After driving a beat up car, I now want to see Orton driving a real car
          How? He cant reach he pedals.
          sigpic

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by wyatt906 View Post
            because if it is, Orton ranked 8th in the league in QB rating for passes in that range and only attempted 11 passes longer than 30 yds.

            Top Ten 21-30 yds:

            1. Rodgers
            2. Schaub
            3. Warner
            4. Rivers
            5. Garcia
            6. Cutler 106.3
            7. Brees
            8. Orton 102.8
            9. O'Sullivan
            10. Campbell

            Last 2min of the Half rating:

            1. Orton 101.8
            2. Collins
            3. Cassel
            4. Wallace
            5. Romo
            6. P. Manning
            7. Palmer
            8. Cutler 83.6
            9. Brees
            10. Edwards
            I got a stat that you may find interesting too.

            Kyle Orton career 71.1 qb rating
            Jay Cutler career 87.1 qb rating.
            sigpic

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by ursamajor View Post
              I got a stat that you may find interesting too.

              Kyle Orton career 71.1 qb rating
              Jay Cutler career 87.1 qb rating.
              Here's another interesting stat.

              Kyle Orton 2008 season 79.6 passer rating
              Jay Cutler 2008 season 86.0 passer rating

              Jay had a hurt finger for a two games after he slapped a defender's helmet. But he was throwing to a Pro Bowl WR and a rookie sensation WR while behind one of the best o-lines in the NFL. With Mike Shanahan orchestrating the Offense.

              Kyle had a high-ankle sprain that he could barely walk on for 7 games. He was throwing to WRs so bad that the Bears cut them at the end of the season. Behind one of the worst o-lines in the NFL. With chuckleheaded Ron "run-run-pass-punt" Turner as his OC sending in the most predictable plays possible.

              Considering injuries, the difference in coaching, and the level of talent surrounding each QB - a 6.4 point difference in passer ratings (out of a possible 158.3, it's a 4% gap) is awfully damned close...

              :orton:
              Don't hate on the 8!
              "That's a crap question."
              - Kyle Orton

              Comment


              • #67
                Opposing teams played chicago run first.

                Opposinbg teams played denver- pass first.

                It makes a big difference. As does the fact that orton had a defense that took the pressure off him.

                Those things are overlooked and important.
                sigpic


                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by Pura Vida View Post
                  Opposing teams played chicago run first.

                  Opposinbg teams played denver- pass first.

                  It makes a big difference. As does the fact that orton had a defense that took the pressure off him.

                  Those things are overlooked and important.
                  Here are another couple overlooked items:

                  The Bears were #30 in the league in pass defense, in terms of yards.

                  The Bears' running game averaged 3.9 YPC. The Broncos averaged. 5.0, taking
                  pressure off Cutler.


                  In the end, so what? Cutler is with the Bears. Orton is with the Broncos. I don't
                  understand this pissing contest regarding the two. It sounds like "my daddy can
                  beat up your daddy."

                  Enough already.

                  -----

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Pura Vida View Post
                    Opposing teams played chicago run first.

                    Opposinbg teams played denver- pass first.

                    It makes a big difference. As does the fact that orton had a defense that took the pressure off him.

                    Those things are overlooked and important.
                    Orton was averaging 238 yds per game before he was hurt - 62.2% pass completion, 7.3 yds per attempt. He was a top ten passer in 4 of the first 7 weeks. If a DC plays "run-first" against a QB like that, he's an idiot and needs to be fired.

                    Orton's Defense was #21 last season - not taking a whole lot of pressure off of Kyle. And they gave away late leads in 3 games - Carolina, Tampa, & Atlanta (couldn't stop a rookie QB for ELEVEN FREAKIN' SECONDS) - while not bothering to even show up for the playoff-deciding season finale against Houston. That forced Orton to try and make something happen late in games (with an OC who's totally incapable of making in-game adjustments) - that's ADDING PRESSURE, not taking it off.

                    Oh yeah, there is one more thing...

                    KYLE ORTON PLAYED HALF THE SEASON ON AN ANKLE THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN IN A FULL CAST!!!

                    For some reason THAT thing is overlooked (by Orton-bashers) and is important.

                    :orton:
                    Don't hate on the 8!
                    "That's a crap question."
                    - Kyle Orton

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by dbldrew View Post
                      Or it could be interpreted that the receiver maximized the run after the catch, the problem with evaluating the QB on the YPC is you don’t know how many extra yards the receiver got. Was it all QB? Was it all the receiver RAC? Or a combination of both?
                      Fair enough on the other points but this I wanted to quibble with. For the most part, it's often both as it involves at least 6 (QB, 3 WR, TE, HB) players offensively more often than not.

                      I did find this: http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders...e=NFL&rank=231

                      Looks like Jay Cutler benefited a lot from his receivers (WR, TE, HB) getting yards after the catch as they ranked 5th whereas Orton had to depend a bit more on his arm as the Bears only ranked 18th.

                      Worth pointing out was that New England was 3rd (probably due to Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk).
                      "I will pray for you. I will pray for you. I will sell my soul for something pure and true... someone like you." - Garbage #1 Crush

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by topscribe View Post
                        Here are another couple overlooked items:

                        The Bears were #30 in the league in pass defense, in terms of yards.

                        The Bears' running game averaged 3.9 YPC. The Broncos averaged. 5.0, taking
                        pressure off Cutler.


                        In the end, so what? Cutler is with the Bears. Orton is with the Broncos. I don't
                        understand this pissing contest regarding the two. It sounds like "my daddy can
                        beat up your daddy."

                        Enough already.

                        -----
                        The Bears defense gave up yards but got their team points and turnovers. They also faced the most drives out of the entire league.

                        The running game took pressure off of Cutler? Sure, in about 6 games this season. We also looked nearly unstoppable in those games (on offense that is). People were not playing the run the majority of the season.

                        You don't understand the pissing contest but you are a big part of it. What exactly is your point with that? If you are going to compain about it, you probably shouldn't be apart of it otherwise nobody is going to care about your complaints.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by jhns View Post
                          The Bears defense gave up yards but got their team points and turnovers. They also faced the most drives out of the entire league.

                          The running game took pressure off of Cutler? Sure, in about 6 games this season. We also looked nearly unstoppable in those games (on offense that is). People were not playing the run the majority of the season.

                          You don't understand the pissing contest but you are a big part of it. What exactly is your point with that? If you are going to compain about it, you probably shouldn't be apart of it otherwise nobody is going to care about your complaints.
                          And I don't care about any of your comments. You have been nothing but
                          hostile toward me all along, anyway. All you are doing here is reinforcing the
                          trolls on the board with your bad attitude.

                          And I have never been in the argument comparing Cutler with Orton. I think it
                          is an asinine discussion. So please try to be honest when you refer to me, if
                          that is at all possible for you.

                          -----

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by topscribe View Post
                            And I don't care about any of your comments. You have been nothing but
                            hostile toward me all along, anyway. All you are doing here is reinforcing the
                            trolls on the board with your bad attitude.

                            And I have never been in the argument comparing Cutler with Orton. I think it
                            is an asinine discussion. So please try to be honest when you refer to me, if
                            that is at all possible for you.

                            -----
                            If they are trolls, the only thing you are doing is feeding them when you always are responding to them. Please give it a rest. Either you want to be in the conversations or you don't. If they are trolling, you can report them and the mods will take care of it. You are also the one that started getting hostile toward my posts just because I say Cutler is better than Orton. You also get very hostile toward everyone here, constantly. I don't see why you think you have room to talk.

                            How are you going to tell me you aren't in the argument?.... The post I just quoted earlier says otherwise.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by jhns View Post
                              If they are trolls, the only thing you are doing is feeding them when you always are responding to them. Please give it a rest. Either you want to be in the conversations or you don't. If they are trolling, you can report them and the mods will take care of it. You are also the one that started getting hostile toward my posts just because I say Cutler is better than Orton. You also get very hostile toward everyone here, constantly. I don't see why you think you have room to talk.

                              How are you going to tell me you aren't in the argument?.... The post I just quoted earlier says otherwise.
                              Have you noticed that I never respond to your posts (except this exchange
                              here)? It is because I do not view your comments worth responding to, and I
                              don't need the hostility you always show toward me. I don't give a rat's ass
                              whether you think Cutler is better than Orton . . . I do, too, in fact, and I
                              have said so, but I still don't give a rat's ass what you say.

                              Do me and yourself a favor and just leave me alone, unless you have something
                              intelligent to discuss . . . in which case I probably will not respond to you,
                              anyway, given your continued dishonesty toward my posts. Now, please,
                              either put me on Ignore, or just ignore me (which I am going to do toward you
                              from this point): Nothing can be achieved with this . . .

                              -----
                              Last edited by topscribe; 06-25-2009, 09:44 AM.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                If you post in this forum, I am not going to ignore your posts. I don't ignore anyones posts. Feel free to ignore my posts though, I do not mind at all. I even encourage it sometimes.

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