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  • Originally posted by Fargo View Post
    That's true. The playcalling didn't seem ambitious enough to me. Conservative offenses historically work with aggressive defenses though. It's a strategy to allow good defenses to rest longer.

    Not sure what to expect this year. Conservative or what?
    I think McDs play calling was a little conservative last season as well. I think this next season with the team more relaxed with the offense it will get more aggressive. McD doesn't seem like the conservative playing type to me so I believe it was just the inexperience of the team as a whole in the offense that led to that.
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    • Originally posted by Fargo View Post
      That's true. The playcalling didn't seem ambitious enough to me. Conservative offenses historically work with aggressive defenses though. It's a strategy to allow good defenses to rest longer.

      Not sure what to expect this year. Conservative or what?
      Since you seem to have the good stats source, care to pull Orton's splits for previous years? I'm curious if the 10-20 dropoff has to do with last years's scheme and team, or if it followed him from the Bears.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Tripp View Post
        I agree, though, there must be a reason-- or number of reasons. 40%-60% is quite a leap.
        I can tell you exactly what the reason is. Some here will try to make excuses for it or deny it, but here's the actual reason (or one of the biggest, at least):

        Ineffective run game.

        The result was that while we had about the same number of third down conversion attempts as other teams, ours were from MUCH longer distances.

        The following are for passing stats only.

        3rd and 2 to go or less:

        Manning: 19
        Rodgers: 20
        Schaub: 17
        Orton: 16
        Brady: 16

        I haven't looked at every single player's stats in this category from last season, but so far I only see one QB that had fewer 3rd and short (2 or less) conversion attempts; Tony Romo.

        3rd and 3-7
        Manning 74
        Brady 75
        Orton 75
        Rodgers 67

        I wish that stat was broken down more, because there's a world of difference between 3rd and 3 and 3rd and 7. All the same, statistically here Orton's right along with everyone else.


        3rd and 8-10

        Pay attention. This is getting interesting.

        Brady: 27
        Brees: 22
        Schaub: 30
        Orton: 37

        But wait, it gets better:

        3rd and 11+:

        Brady: 16
        Manning: 14
        Orton: 25


        Total, Orton faced third and long situations 62 times out of 153 third downs or over 40% of all his third down conversion attempts.

        That's pretty absurd, folks.

        Manning faced just 53 such situations, and Brady only faced 43 such situations.

        Over 40% of the third downs that Orton was asked to convert through the air last season came on 3rd and 8 or longer to go.

        Gee, I wonder why we didn't pick up many first downs...


        Why were we in third and long? Penalties perhaps, but we're not the Raiders so it's not like we were setting any records.

        The real reason: Our run game between the tackles just absolutely sucked.



        That's why we didn't get the first downs. Because it's hard as Hell to convert third and 8+ yards in the NFL, and we were trying to do that over 40% of the time last season.

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        • Originally posted by samparnell View Post
          When he's under, he needs to bring the ball up by his shoulder and the side of his helmet after the snap. He was doing that at his pro day.

          Afterwards, if he won't lower the ball before he throws it, the mechanics are fixed.

          That takes care of throwing preparation when under. What he does for the mesh point in handoffs and PAP adds a couple of things, as does what to to when in the gun.

          Tebow is a great athlete with a lot of talent, great attitude and work habits who is surrounded by great coaching and teammates. I would be surprised if his throwing mechanics are a big problem in the NFL.

          Adjusting to the speed of the game and the complexity of the coverages he will see will take longer and be more of a problem than throwing the ball.

          In the meantime, if McDaniels has some specials (e.g., "Wild" stuff) that he can come in on to get his feet wet, it will help his comfort level.

          Personally, I'd like to see him take reps as the holder on XPA/FGA.

          PS The criticism of Tim Tebow's throwing mechanics comes mostly from commentators, with a voice in sports media, who lowered his draft grade and now need to protect their credibility as talent evaluators. The progress of the 2010 QB class will be interesting to observe over time. Let us (not to be confused with lettuce) hope they mature more quickly as players than the class of 2006 has.
          Couldnt have said it better myself :thumb: haha Class of 06. :clap:

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Alastor View Post
            I can tell you exactly what the reason is. Some here will try to make excuses for it or deny it, but here's the actual reason (or one of the biggest, at least):

            Ineffective run game.

            The result was that while we had about the same number of third down conversion attempts as other teams, ours were from MUCH longer distances.

            The following are for passing stats only.

            3rd and 2 to go or less:

            Manning: 19
            Rodgers: 20
            Schaub: 17
            Orton: 16
            Brady: 16

            I haven't looked at every single player's stats in this category from last season, but so far I only see one QB that had fewer 3rd and short (2 or less) conversion attempts; Tony Romo.

            3rd and 3-7
            Manning 74
            Brady 75
            Orton 75
            Rodgers 67

            I wish that stat was broken down more, because there's a world of difference between 3rd and 3 and 3rd and 7. All the same, statistically here Orton's right along with everyone else.


            3rd and 8-10

            Pay attention. This is getting interesting.

            Brady: 27
            Brees: 22
            Schaub: 30
            Orton: 37

            But wait, it gets better:

            3rd and 11+:

            Brady: 16
            Manning: 14
            Orton: 25


            Total, Orton faced third and long situations 62 times out of 153 third downs or over 40% of all his third down conversion attempts.

            That's pretty absurd, folks.

            Manning faced just 53 such situations, and Brady only faced 43 such situations.

            Over 40% of the third downs that Orton was asked to convert through the air last season came on 3rd and 8 or longer to go.

            Gee, I wonder why we didn't pick up many first downs...


            Why were we in third and long? Penalties perhaps, but we're not the Raiders so it's not like we were setting any records.

            The real reason: Our run game between the tackles just absolutely sucked.



            That's why we didn't get the first downs. Because it's hard as Hell to convert third and 8+ yards in the NFL, and we were trying to do that over 40% of the time last season.
            I meant the completion percentage jump. Pass completion. His accuracy remains at 40% from 10-40 yards somehow and spikes up to almost 70% when it's under 10 yards to throw.
            Brock you like a hurricane!
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            Think of a bigger, stronger, more handsome Eli Manning.... That's Fargo.

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            • Tim Tebow = Jim Zorn/John Lynch hybrid

              I can hardly wait

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              • Originally posted by Alastor View Post
                I do not however, believe that he will be a success because "we've never seen anything like this before." In fact, that's a reason we should be apprehensive.
                There is no reason to be apprehensive, though. Tebow wouldn't have been able to run the way he did if he couldn't pass. If that was the case a lot more guys would be doing what Tebow has done. He isn't a spectacular runner anyway. It's his ability to both pass and run that is spectacular... but it all starts with his passing. Which is why there is no reason to worry... at least no reason to worry more than any other great QB prospect.

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                • Originally posted by The Big D View Post
                  Since you seem to have the good stats source, care to pull Orton's splits for previous years? I'm curious if the 10-20 dropoff has to do with last years's scheme and team, or if it followed him from the Bears.
                  Fargo TOLD YOU where he was getting his stats from - ESPN.

                  To make it easy on you - Kyle Orton's passing splits on ESPN

                  As far as your question about the 10-20 yd range for KO in previous years...

                  2005 -

                  Pass Thrown: Behind line 69.6% completion rate 74.9 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 59.1% completion rate 69.2 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 34.3% completion rate 46.5 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 35.7% completion rate 56.0 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. 10.0% completion rate 5.4 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. 0.00% completion rate 0.0 passer rating

                  2007 -

                  Pass Thrown: Behind line 86.4% completion rate 100.0 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 54.3% completion rate 78.7 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 23.1% completion rate 9.1 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 20.0% completion rate 82.5 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. 20.0% completion rate 72.9 passer rating

                  2008 -

                  Pass Thrown: Behind line 82.3% completion rate 81.0 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 65.8% completion rate 89.2 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 37.2% completion rate 56.1 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 37.0% completion rate 102.8 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. 12.5% completion rate 6.8 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. 0.0% completion rate 39.6 passer rating

                  2009 -

                  Pass Thrown: Behind line 80.0% completion rate 98.1 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 68.6% completion rate 99.6 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 42.0% completion rate 47.7 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 42.4% completion rate 83.9 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. 44.4% completion rate 91.2 passer rating
                  Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. 16.7% completion rate 79.2 passer rating

                  Now Orton's stats do drop off in the 11-20 yd range. But when he was on the Bears, pretty much EVERYTHING dropped off past there. He did just as poorly or worse at the deeper ranges. I'd think that had to do more with poor preparation of Orton by the coaching staff to start (he was 3rd string in both 2005 & 2007 until just before he was made the starter, while in 2008 he lost important practice reps in a "QB competition" with Rex Grossman) as well as a very poor WR corps.
                  "That's a crap question."
                  - Kyle Orton

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                  • Originally posted by Alastor View Post
                    Gee, I wonder why we didn't pick up many first downs...
                    Why were we in third and long? Penalties perhaps, but we're not the Raiders so it's not like we were setting any records.

                    The real reason: Our run game between the tackles just absolutely sucked.

                    That's why we didn't get the first downs. Because it's hard as Hell to convert third and 8+ yards in the NFL, and we were trying to do that over 40% of the time last season.
                    We also had a TON of drive killing penalties that stemmed from people still learning the system, penalties like illegal procedure, movement penalties, etc where people on the offense were concentrating on where they were supposed to go and who they were supposed to hit rather than the snap count.
                    You Tell 'em Justice is coming. You tell 'em I'M coming!sigpic

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                    • Originally posted by neckbeard View Post
                      Fargo TOLD YOU where he was getting his stats from - ESPN.

                      To make it easy on you - Kyle Orton's passing splits on ESPN

                      As far as your question about the 10-20 yd range for KO in previous years...

                      2005 -

                      Pass Thrown: Behind line 69.6% completion rate 74.9 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 59.1% completion rate 69.2 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 34.3% completion rate 46.5 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 35.7% completion rate 56.0 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. 10.0% completion rate 5.4 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. 0.00% completion rate 0.0 passer rating

                      2007 -

                      Pass Thrown: Behind line 86.4% completion rate 100.0 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 54.3% completion rate 78.7 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 23.1% completion rate 9.1 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 20.0% completion rate 82.5 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. 20.0% completion rate 72.9 passer rating

                      2008 -

                      Pass Thrown: Behind line 82.3% completion rate 81.0 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 65.8% completion rate 89.2 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 37.2% completion rate 56.1 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 37.0% completion rate 102.8 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. 12.5% completion rate 6.8 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. 0.0% completion rate 39.6 passer rating

                      2009 -

                      Pass Thrown: Behind line 80.0% completion rate 98.1 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 68.6% completion rate 99.6 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 42.0% completion rate 47.7 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 42.4% completion rate 83.9 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. 44.4% completion rate 91.2 passer rating
                      Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. 16.7% completion rate 79.2 passer rating

                      Now Orton's stats do drop off in the 11-20 yd range. But when he was on the Bears, pretty much EVERYTHING dropped off past there. He did just as poorly or worse at the deeper ranges. I'd think that had to do more with poor preparation of Orton by the coaching staff to start (he was 3rd string in both 2005 & 2007 until just before he was made the starter, while in 2008 he lost important practice reps in a "QB competition" with Rex Grossman) as well as a very poor WR corps.
                      I'm seeing improvement year for year there. What is there to make me believe he won't continue to improve?

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                      • Originally posted by Tripp View Post
                        Orton tends to throw the ball away quite often, and I remember many occasions where there were dropped passes. Add that with the WR sometimes not being able to get open...(resulting in a incompletion)? The little things add up.

                        I agree, though, there must be a reason-- or number of reasons. 40%-60% is quite a leap.
                        The last half of the season we lost Ryan Harris, the right tackle, and Tyler Polumbus took over. Polumbus was a terrible pass protector and Orton was rushed more often than not and had to throw the ball away or simply put it up in the air where only Marshall could get the ball and trust him to bring it down. (The advantage of having a VERY big receiver).
                        You Tell 'em Justice is coming. You tell 'em I'M coming!sigpic

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                        • I live in SEC country, and no matter how much I praise Orton for his constant improvement year after year, I have to say this.

                          His job's up for grabs......bank on that.

                          Tim Tebow has the most ridiculous work ethic you will ever see out of one guy in your life. He will be there 15 hours a day or more, and probably be in bed with the playbook another 2-3 hours. He eats, sleeps, and breathes football. He also despises losing, and I promise you, if the game is close, he will win you the ballgame.

                          I wish Kyle all the best, and would LOVE to see a 4000 yard season out of the guy. But for all his hard work, Tebow's probably going to work three times as hard, so Orton will have to step it up.

                          Congrats to you guys for getting him, and thank you. I won a hundred bucks betting that he'd go first round over any other QB, haha.

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                          • Originally posted by jakemcclain View Post
                            I live in SEC country, and no matter how much I praise Orton for his constant improvement year after year, I have to say this.

                            His job's up for grabs......bank on that.

                            Tim Tebow has the most ridiculous work ethic you will ever see out of one guy in your life. He will be there 15 hours a day or more, and probably be in bed with the playbook another 2-3 hours. He eats, sleeps, and breathes football. He also despises losing, and I promise you, if the game is close, he will win you the ballgame.

                            I wish Kyle all the best, and would LOVE to see a 4000 yard season out of the guy. But for all his hard work, Tebow's probably going to work three times as hard, so Orton will have to step it up.

                            Congrats to you guys for getting him, and thank you. I won a hundred bucks betting that he'd go first round over any other QB, haha.
                            Yep, 15 hours a day... sure, you bet. Including his 2-3 hours with the playbook, that's 18 hours, so how much is he going to sleep, 3 or 4 hours a day? Hates losing...yep, other NFL players don't mind it. He will work 3 times as hard as a starting QB playing for his job last year on a contract..., ok. He will win every close game...good luck with that. You bet someone $100 he go before any other QB and you think you won...Bradford???
                            sigpic

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                            • Orton gave us his best, 110% effort last season. But, IMO, we got his max value last season. He can run an offense, but he doesn't have the "it" factor Tebow does. Yes, he's a rookie, but it's dumb to think a 1st round QB who just landed a nice contract is going to sit by and watch Orton. If he shows ANY hint of beating out Orton in training camp, McD is going to let things unfold.
                              sigpic

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                              • Originally posted by RazR View Post
                                Orton gave us his best, 110% effort last season. But, IMO, we got his max value last season. He can run an offense, but he doesn't have the "it" factor Tebow does. Yes, he's a rookie, but it's dumb to think a 1st round QB who just landed a nice contract is going to sit by and watch Orton. If he shows ANY hint of beating out Orton in training camp, McD is going to let things unfold.
                                How did Orton give us his max best it can ever be 6 months into the system ?

                                Each one of our plays probably has 4-5 checks You dont think he has a better understanding of each one of those plays and the checks now than he did last year at this time as well as the returning receivers and the Oline now having a better understanding ?

                                I think its dumb to think that a qb whose playing for a much much larger contract than that 1st rd Qb cant be better in month 18 than he was in month 6
                                "(Touchdowns) are the goal," Orton said. "You can run for as many yards as you want, throw for as many yards as you want, but you have to convert to seven points. I think we're going to be explosive, be dynamic, be versatile."

                                "Perception is everything in this league, and a lot of times, unless you're a self-promoter, it can become negative," - Kyle Orton

                                Kyle Orton Army member #83 :logo: :smug:

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