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Krieger: Broncos lack real offensive weapon

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  • #76
    Yeah why can't this clown write an original article? I said all of that months ago.

    Eight defenders coming to a box near you...

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    • #77
      Originally posted by I Eat Staples View Post
      There is no foolproof way to predict future value. The best you can do is gather a rough estimate of where a player will go, and what the "market value" for that player is. For example, Tyson Alaualu (sp?) was taken far earlier than expected. The Jags reached. Even if he becomes a great player, they could have had that great player later on in the draft.
      How do you know they could have had the same great player later on in the draft? How do you know he would still be there, and if he's the guy you really want, you need to make sure you can take him when you can.

      If you can have a great player in the 2nd round, there's no reason to take him in the 1st. Finding talent from the middle rounds is important, but if you jump at that talent and take it in the early rounds, it completely defeats the purpose of finding good value in the middle rounds.

      Tebow, of all players, is especially a reach. He has a much longer learning curve than most rookie QBs. He's the kind of player you take specifically if he falls into your lap, not the kind of player you trade up for. If he fell to us in the 2nd round, and we took him with one of the back to back 2nd round picks we originally had, it would have been a good pick. A value pick. Because if he busted, he would be one bust of three picks in the top 50. Not bad at all.

      By trading up for Tebow, we set ourselves up for failure if he fails. It's three wasted picks, not just one. Even if another team wanted to trade up and give up those picks, the smart move is to concede and let them have him. If there's a nice car that you like at an auction, but someone else is going to pay an unreasonably high price for it, the smart move is to let them have it. We payed an unreasonably high price for Tebow. If the Bills or Vikings wanted to reach for him and give up too much, we should have let them be the idiots, not stoop to their level and beyond.

      If Tebow fell to us, I would have been happy. We simply gave too much up. It wasn't a value pick. Like you said, you can't guess future value. You don't pay a higher price because of a guess. If Tebow goes on to be a star, it still wasn't a good value pick, because like you said no one knew his future value at the time of the pick. Of course, you won't hear me complaining, because I'll be thrilled to have a star QB no matter how we got him. But hopefully you understand my point.
      I see your point but I don't agree with it. As for your statement that you don't pay a higher price because of a guess, that's ALL the draft is. It's a guess based on who you think can play at the level of the NFL and contribute to your team.

      You wrote
      For example, Tyson Alaualu (sp?) was taken far earlier than expected. The Jags reached.
      You are basing your insistence that a team reached because of where someone else thought a player should go in the draft, like the people you listen to were an authority on the matter.

      Sure, you break down where you think guys will go, but that's so you can make your own plan, not because a pundit makes a guess that so-and-so is a third round level player. I doubt that any team in the NFL looks at the Kipers or Mayocks for an idea where a player should fall on the board. They are the guys who evaluate talent for a living and see who works in the NFL and who doesn't. I would take the coaching staff of the Broncos over Mel Kiper any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

      The Kipers and Mayocks are hired by the networks to try to break down the draft for the fans, the lay people, who watch. They certainly are not an "authority" that is recognized by the coaches in the NFL.

      You and every other person on the forums have to get the ideas of where someone falls on the board from the Kiper crowd because NONE of us are privy to sit in the draft rooms with the coaches and owners and see how those calls are made. So, Kiper thinks Tebow is a third round pick and if the Broncos pick him up in the first, the Broncos "reached."

      Rather, it's more likely that Kiper is not as good at recognizing talent as the coaching staff of the Broncos. We won't know until 2-3 years down the road and if Tebow develops into our starting QB.

      Let me see if I can break it down a bit to help you understand.

      You are a head coach of an organization and you know what you want and what you are looking for. You don't target over a hundred to two hundred guys in your draft. You know what you want and you put together your list of perhaps half that many.

      As the draft comes, the guy you wanted with your high pick is no longer there, so you want to maximize your value. You want Tebow, but you would prefer to take him in the second or even third and you have greater needs than another QB. You move back and then move back again because the guy you want, Thomas, is likely to still be there at 22. He is and you take him.

      You think you are pat until early in the second but you see at least one team and possibly two moving up to take the QB you want, Tebow, in the first. Cursing that you have to give up some of those draft picks, you negotiate to move back into the first round and take Tebow, not because you wanted to take him in the first, but because of the QB's on the board, he's the only one you wanted. THAT'S the only "value" that matters on draft day.

      Value is important and it was clearly important to McDaniels, who traded back multiple times and still got the receiver he wanted. Tebow (or Thomas or Decker, for that matter) may not work out, but the draft picks he gave up may not work out either, but he got the guy he wanted, which is the whole purpose of the draft. Sure, if you can, you want to get more guys that can play for you too, but best bet is you have a handful of people that you think can not only play at this level, but also play in your system the way you want.

      Since the draft is a gamble in the best of times, it's more important to get the guys you want if you can get them, since you are gambling that you can make that player work on your team.

      YOU may think Tebow in the first is a reach. It's an opinion and it's yours. I think if Tebow works out to be the next Super Bowl winning QB for the Broncos and takes the team back to the promised land, he's worth every bit of what we gave up to get him. That's my opinion and, I suspect, Josh's.
      You Tell 'em Justice is coming. You tell 'em I'M coming!sigpic

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