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Glue's Experimental Rankings - Week 6

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  • Glue's Experimental Rankings - Week 6

    For those that care. Here's this weeks rankings. A few big jumps this week (mostly in the lower half of the rankings) and a couple of teams in the upper half moved significantly (like Denver. )

    For the most part the teams have pretty much stabilized in the rankings and any skewing factors seems to have worked themselves out.

    A couple of the divisions are close, like the AFC East. Although the relative strengths of the top two teams are 21 points apart it only represents 4 pts per game. Whereas the NFC South has a 60 pt difference representing about 10 pts per game between the top two teams.

    At this time I'd be willing to say that Atlanta will win the division but won't fair well in the playoffs. Of course, time will refine the picture in all the divisions. Perhaps in 4 weeks I'll start a thread asking for playoff predictions on Mondays and post my rankings with playoff predictions based on the rankings.

    What's interesting is Indy & Denver. Both have the same pts with Denver playing one additional game. That game is what makes the difference in the ranking but should they play next week the win would be a toss up - as would any of the top 5 teams playing any other top 5 team.

    [edit] New England and Denver could easily be switched in rankings as their metrics are so similar except for pts/game in which New England has a definite (if small) advantage over Denver by just 2 pts/game. This is due to New England's bye week. Week 11 will be a crucial week in that all teams in the NFL will have won their bye week games. [/edit]


    Rnk....Team.........Str...Str/Gm...Last Wk
    1. Philadelphia......74....14.80.....2
    2. Indianapolis......53....10.60.....1
    3. Denver............53.....8.83.....7
    4. New England.......52....10.40.....4
    5. Seattle...........36.....7.20.....3
    6. Atlanta...........33.....5.50.....6
    7. NY Giants.........32.....6.40.....5
    8. NY Jets...........31.....6.20.....9
    9. Minnesota.........25.....5.00....10
    10. San Diego........24.....4.00.....8
    11. Pittsburgh.......22.....3.67....11
    12. Baltimore........18.....3.60....12
    13. St. Louis........10.....1.67....14
    14. Cleveland.........3.....0.50....20
    15. Houston...........1.....0.17....18
    16. Arizona...........0.....0.00....15
    17. Jacksonville.....-7....-1.17....19
    18. Washignton......-11....-1.83....21
    19. Chicago.........-11....-2.20....17
    20. Green Bay.......-15....-2.50....30
    21. Buffalo.........-15....-3.00....25
    22. Tennessee.......-17....-2.83....16
    23. Detroit.........-22....-4.40....13
    24. Tampa Bay.......-27....-4.50....23
    25. Kansas City.....-27....-5.40....24
    26. Dallas..........-28....-5.60....27
    27. Carolina........-41....-8.20....22
    28. New Orleans.....-42....-7.00....29
    29. Cincinnati......-46....-9.20....28
    30. Oakland.........-52....-8.67....26
    31. Miami...........-52....-8.67....31
    32. San Francisco...-54....-9.00....32
    Last edited by TheGlue Factory; 10-19-2004, 11:16 AM.

  • #2
    wtf is str?

    Comment


    • #3
      Yeah.....according to str/gm, NE should be ahead of Denver.
      Originally posted by boltzpride619
      What's so funny is seeing all this mess that the Donks and the fans have placed on themselves. Can you say Raiders.

      Originally posted by RunByDesign
      True comedy is observing the Self Imploding Organization that is the Raiders and then asking yourself this question:

      What separates them (Raiders) from us (Chargers)

      Answer: Championships.

      Comment


      • #4
        Wow, Denver ranked higher than NE! cool
        This space for rent

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by RunByDesign
          Yeah.....according to str/gm, NE should be ahead of Denver.
          Is it strength of opponent per game?
          Originally posted by boltzpride619
          What's so funny is seeing all this mess that the Donks and the fans have placed on themselves. Can you say Raiders.

          Originally posted by RunByDesign
          True comedy is observing the Self Imploding Organization that is the Raiders and then asking yourself this question:

          What separates them (Raiders) from us (Chargers)

          Answer: Championships.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by DrunkPanda
            wtf is str?
            Shortest description of PF minus PA. Str/Gm becomes (PF minus PA) divided by games played. I'm making an assumption that most readers of this thread have followed it for the past 3 weeks. My apologies.

            Comment


            • #7
              I hope your power rankings are the sign of things to come. If these are true, then we should beat Cincy 116-3.
              :usa: *** God Bless Our Military Men And Women*** :usa:

              sigpic

              Comment


              • #8
                It seems to me that str/gm is a better stat to rank by as this eliminates any confusion as to how many games each team has played (because of byes). Case in point, by Str/gm patriots should be higher than Denver, and this would be a truer reflection. The only reason our pure str is higher than NE's is because of the extra game we have played.

                The most interesting to me is that Minn is so low. This really shows that a good offense with a bad D looks good on Sports center, but is very susceptible to be beat by a good (balanced) team.

                Comment


                • #9
                  brincos r tuff.

                  bjaychic. :o

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by OBF
                    It seems to me that str/gm is a better stat to rank by as this eliminates any confusion as to how many games each team has played (because of byes). Case in point, by Str/gm patriots should be higher than Denver, and this would be a truer reflection. The only reason our pure str is higher than NE's is because of the extra game we have played.

                    The most interesting to me is that Minn is so low. This really shows that a good offense with a bad D looks good on Sports center, but is very susceptible to be beat by a good (balanced) team.
                    I've been thinking something similar. In this case it's a minor detail as 2 pts / game isn't a huge difference. Consider that the difference in pts / game between 1 and 5 is only 7 pts. If those teams were to play this week #5 could easily beat #1 by 7 or 10 pts.

                    I'm starting to think that any prediction of an upcoming game should be viewed by the teams 5 above and below the team in question as being equally "strong." If both teams fall within that range then it's a toss up to who should win.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Bump - too many threads on stupid topics *cough*bjaychic*cough*Salisbury*cough*

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        submit the formula to nfl.com,espn.com,cbssports.com and foxsports.com


                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by OrangeShadow
                          submit the formula to nfl.com,espn.com,cbssports.com and foxsports.com
                          I haven't worked out the kinks in it - thus the label of experimental and the reason for these threads. I want opinions on how to improve the experiment - which I've gotten some.

                          The philosophy of this method of determining power is the simple idea that "the best predictor of future performance is past achievement." Bringing this to football means that the most likely teams to go to the superbowl are those teams that score the most points and allow the least points at the same time.

                          This makes Glue's Power Rankings entirely score based with as little opinion to shift teams around (as discussed in earlier threads - do a search to get the full discussion of the influence of opinion on "professional" power rankings.) The problem I'm facing is that the experiment doesn't take into account good teams playing a lot of weaker teams which will skew the analysis. We'll see how things work out as the season progresses.

                          For anyone interested I'm keeping each week's results in an excel spreadsheet that I'll make available after the regular season is over.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            You know you have to change it when you all are ahead of New England. Jags are 17th after beating you guys I can't get over that. Here's what I came up with.

                            1. New England 5-0
                            2. Philadelphia 5-0
                            3. Indianapolis 4-1
                            4. Denver 5-1 ~ 1
                            5. Minnesota 4-1 ~ 1
                            6. New York Jets 5-0 ~ -2
                            7. St. Louis 4-2 ~ -1
                            8. New York Giants 4-1
                            9. Atlanta 4-1 ~ 3
                            10. Jacksonville 4-2 ~ 3
                            11. Pittsburgh 5-1 ~ 2 (Oak, MI, Cin, Cle, Dal)
                            12. San Diego 3-3 ~ -3 (TX,TN, Jags)
                            13. Seattle 3-2 -5 (SF, TB, NO)
                            14. Houston 3-3 ~ 1
                            15. Cleveland 3-3 ~ 6
                            16. Detroit 3-2 ~ -5
                            17. Baltimore 3-2 ~1
                            18. Tennessee 2-4 ~1
                            19. Carolina 1-4 ~1
                            20. Oakland 2-4 ~1
                            21. Buffalo 1-4 ~-1
                            22. Kansas City 1-3
                            23. Green Bay 2-4 ~ 4
                            24. New Orleans 2-4
                            25. Dallas 2-3 ~ 3
                            26. Tampa Bay 1-5 ~ -1
                            27. Washington 2-4 ~ 3
                            28. San Francisco 1-5 ~ -2
                            29. Chicago 1-4 ~ 3
                            30. Arizona 1-4 -7
                            31. Cinncinnatti 1-4 ~ -4
                            32. Miami 0-6 -1

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Jagsbch
                              You know you have to change it when you all are ahead of New England. Jags are 17th after beating you guys I can't get over that. Here's what I came up with.
                              Why don't you post your power rankings in your own thread? The intention of this thread is to refine an experimental model. Your rankings do nothing to accomplish this goal nor does your comment quoted above. If you don't have the maturity to contribute to a discussion then don't try to contribute at all.

                              If you don't know the history of this series of threads do a search and get up to speed.

                              Comment

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