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  • nyuk nyuk
    replied
    I can't wait until the lockout is resolved and this personnel matter can be dealt with.

    Leave a comment:


  • aaron.moberg
    replied
    We are a team who is rebuilding. The focus of this rebuild has been clear by drafting high talent, high leadership guys. Look at Von Miller and Tim Tebow. Both guys of incredible talent and leadership who in theory were picked so they could lead the offense and defense respectively.

    Start Tebow this year should mean that we start developing Tebow and Von in both just play time and experience but in how to lead a team. Handing the keys over to Tebow and maybe depending on other defensive players (Doom, champ, dawkins ect.) Is something that could really benefit this team because we could hopefully have key roles solved on this team.

    Then from that point its all about getting the key role players to fill the gaps. Which may take up to 3 years at the shortest amount of time to really fill this team with depth, talent and a full understanding and comfort with anything EX throws at them. Along, with just timing and building relationships between teammates and players.

    We should start Tebow because he could potentially be our guy. He might not come out and light it up and throw for a bazillion yards/TD but neither did any of the great QB's. At this point I say unless Tebow does horrible, and I mean god awful horrible we stick with him for the next FEW years. Stop changing QB's like we have been doing and focus on the other aspects of our game.

    Leave a comment:


  • johnlimburg
    replied
    Originally posted by ZeusOnEarth View Post
    There's no doubt our defense was horrible last season. But if we scored 24 ppg last season we would have at least been 7-9. I say 7-9 because in those games that were tied, by having the ball longer and keeping it away from the other team they would have most likely scored less than us. It's all speculation of course. So yeah, Orton should be cut slack for our team's subpar defense. But inversely we could easily say that our defense would have prospered if the offense could stay on the the field longer and actually score.
    Yeh there are a lot of things that would have changed if the offense was better. However by the stats we would have 4 games.

    Leave a comment:


  • Luckyshot
    replied
    One thing in all these debates I have yet to hear is what Tebow is doing to improve on reading defenses and going through progressions.

    Leave a comment:


  • Humberg
    replied
    Just to clarify...

    Exactly. I don't see much wrong with a QB having bad mechanics. Example Phillip Rivers. He has to have THE ugliest throw I have ever seen however he can sling it. I'm not saying Tebow is anywhere close to Rivers right now but his throw IMO isn't something to worry about. Also you cannot compare his throw or say he has an ugly throw like Elway. I don't think anyone can say Tebow has an arm like Elway. Elways when that ball left his hand it was so smooth and like a missile. It is hard to explain. Tebow doesn't have the arm of Elway IMO. He is a different sort of player.
    My point was that throwing mechanics aren't what matter. Rivers didn't have good mechanics, neither did Elway for that matter, nor a host of other NFL QBs. I wasn't equating Tebow to Elway for the record.

    Tebow was 1-2. Has a losing record as an NFL starting QB. These stats show jack IMO. Remember when Orton had huge stats at the start of 2010 and people said they were garbage and it didn't matter because we were not winning. Therefor these stats are meaningless because Tebow wasn't winning games. Also these stats do not show if he can make the throws that are required of an NFL QB.
    I put this out there because Neckbeard accused Tebow of not being a QB, and suggested he was somehow different than other running QB's like Steve Young, Michael Vick, or scramblers like John Elway. I wanted to show that statistically he had numbers that were just as good if not better than these QBs during their rookie seasons and, objectively, there was nothing to suggest otherwise.

    The stats were not there to show he could make NFL throws. That's what the videos are for (if you had viewed my earlier posts in this thread).

    My overall point is that people keep saying Tebow can't play NFL QB. Well, you know what, his stats say he can (in as much as they said Elway, Young or Vick could), the videos say he can, and he's not really had any of the problems he was supposedly going to have from his faulty throwing mechanics (not getting the pass out in time, not having enough zip on them etc). In fact, I haven't seen anything that says he can't play NFL QB. A 24 point come-from-behind win in this league after being down 17-0? That's darned impressive when you think about it.

    And if there's nothing to suggest he can't do it, and you have everything about Tim Tebow like work ethic, leadership, the intangibles that says he might be able to be great, then why not let him get in there, grow a bit with real game exposure, and find out what he can do (as opposed to going for another mediocre season with Orton).

    Wins and losses for rookie? Well that's a tough barometer to use to predict eventual performance. How was Aikman's win/loss record or Manning's record their rookie seasons (no I'm not equating Tebow to either of them, so settle down).

    I'll be the first to admit that 3 games shows little, but I'm more impressed with what it didn't show. It didn't show someone that doesn't belong there. So let the kid play.

    Leave a comment:


  • ZeusOnEarth
    replied
    Originally posted by johnlimburg View Post
    If we scored 24 points per game last year we would have still only had a 4-9-3 record with the tied ball games which would have been 3 going to overtime. That is testiment enough to the defense Orton had to play with. I do think he deserves to be cut some slack for that. However there is another side. His offense still didn't average many points.

    With P Manning's offense averagng 27.5 ponts per game last season and if he had our defense we would have went 8-8.
    There's no doubt our defense was horrible last season. But if we scored 24 ppg last season we would have at least been 7-9. I say 7-9 because in those games that were tied, by having the ball longer and keeping it away from the other team they would have most likely scored less than us. It's all speculation of course. So yeah, Orton should be cut slack for our team's subpar defense. But inversely we could easily say that our defense would have prospered if the offense could stay on the the field longer and actually score.

    Leave a comment:


  • johnlimburg
    replied
    If we scored 24 points per game last year we would have still only had a 4-9-3 record with the tied ball games which would have been 3 going to overtime. That is testiment enough to the defense Orton had to play with. I do think he deserves to be cut some slack for that. However there is another side. His offense still didn't average many points.

    With P Manning's offense averagng 27.5 ponts per game last season and if he had our defense we would have went 8-8.

    Leave a comment:


  • MH Stampede
    replied
    Originally posted by Mount-n-Groan View Post
    I did some calculations a while back that touch on this. Never shared it until now, and it doesn't really relate to anything here, but it is interesting.

    Generally speaking, every year (over the last few years anyway) there are usually about 10 teams that average 24 or more points per game and about 10 teams that average less than 20 points per game. The other 12 teams are somewhere in between.

    Statistically, from 1970 through 2006, a team that scores 21 or more points wins 76% of the time. A team that scores 24 or more points wins 81% of the time.

    Also, did you know that teams that score exactly 16, 18, 19 or 20 points in a game have a higher winning percentage than teams that score exactly 21 points in a game? Weird, but true.

    Again, not really on-topic, but your comment made me think of it and dig up my research.

    Now, carry on, everyone... (nicely)

    Now that interesting, especially the last part concerning the exact scores.

    16,18,19 make sense. As they would require a minimum of 2 td's plus 1fg, or 3 td's to exceed. (barring the rare game where a team gets 5 or 6 fg's).

    The 21 point mark actually taking a dip in win % as you go up the scale, is definitely weird.

    Leave a comment:


  • HavoK471
    replied
    Originally posted by MH Stampede View Post
    Good questions.

    I am of the opinion that we need to trade Orton for a pick or two.

    This would also enable us to really find out what we have in Tebow. Is he going to be our QB for the next 10+ years, or not. If he isn't, we need to know so we can look elsewhere.

    Orton may be worth an extra win right now, this year...IF Tebow doesn't improve significantly (which really is the big???). However 1 win is not going to make or break us, as we just are not going to compete for a SB. Consider also that he only has 1 year to go on his deal, it only makes sense to get some long term value out of him while we can in the form of a draft pick or two.

    Looking at the several key circumstances, I would hope we get value for Orton while possible, and find out what we have in Tebow. Given we aren't going to be true contenders this year, it makes the most sense to try to find answers for the next decade, than it is to win 1 more game in a year we aren't likely going to be SB contenders anyway.
    I like this post a lot, this is a great example of how we should be debating this topic.

    I feel we should trade Orton only if we get good value in the trade. Something like a 2nd round pick, a player that will make an equal impact or something along those lines.

    I don't see the rush in finding out if Tebow is truely the QB of the future. Yes it would be great to know right away but I feel the main reason we want to know by his second year is because of the QBs coming out in the next draft. If Tebow started this season and he doesn't play great wouldn't it be too soon to judge him? Especially on a team that just went 4-12, yes we may have improved but if we don't does that not come into play when judging the QB?

    You're right when you say that it is possible Orton only gets us maybe 1 extra win or it could very possibly be more, we don't know for sure what could happen. However we have to remember that teams want to win the games they are playing. You don't hear many players say something along the lines of "It's okay that we lost today because we're definately going to win next week or next year". This is a win now league and fans do care for a possibility at more wins during this season.

    The wanting to know the future of the franchise and what not is a great thought but you don't give up on today just to see what is going to come tomorrow.

    Leave a comment:


  • MH Stampede
    replied
    Originally posted by neckbeard View Post
    Rah-rah cheerleading works with a team of college kids. Professional veteran players could tend to find it insultingly condescending. That's the type of "leadership" Tebow brings.

    The two best leaders in Broncos history did that. Tom Jackson and John Elway. Be careful where you trod, you will get buried.

    Orton mounted a 20 point scoring frenzy in the 4th Qtr of the Rams game. Yet he's scorned by Tebow fans as a "choker" for failing to score a FOURTH TOUCHDOWN after the first three he threw in the last 15 minutes of the game.

    You have to apply the same standard to Tebow or else it doesn't apply to Orton.

    OK, how about the comebacks against the Patriots and Cowboys in '09? Or the Titans last season? He also led the Bears in game-winning comeback drives against the Packers and Saints in 2008. And another game-winning drive against the Saints as a rookie in 2005.

    Just how many game-winning comeback drives can you expect from a QB on crappy Offenses?


    Yes, I've watched the videos.

    Tebow had a bad throwing motion in college. After an atrocious showing in the Senior Bowl, Tebow worked out with a private coach and "fixed" his throws. Before the draft, in shorts and a t-shirt, Timmy showed a textbook throwing motion. But when he got into real games he went right back to his old style from college. He didn't improve at all.


    Those are QBs who could run. They're passers first and foremost. Tebow is a runner who can KIND OF (49.4% completion rate as a starter) throw. He's not a good QB by any stretch.

    So Tebow's allowed injuries because he's "tough?" But Orton is "injury-prone" and hurts the team by being a gutsy enough competitor to play thru his injuries?
    .
    2010 was the ONLY season that Orton failed to post a winning record. And that took the total collapse of the entire team under an inexperienced, overtasked, egotistical, arrogant and inflexible head coach.

    As for his "improvement," in his last season with the Bears (2008) and last season, Orton was consistently posting passer ratings in the 90s until he was injured. On both teams he was virtually the only good thing on the Offense. It's been KO's bad luck to wind up starting on 2 different teams that had absolutely horrible pass protection. This year with John Fox running things, Orton will have respectable protection and get thru the year healthy and posting passer ratings in the high 90s, maybe even over 100. Denver will be hard-put to screw things up badly enough to lose a lot of games with their starting QB performing at that level...

    So Tebow gets special treatment just because he's Tebow?

    In Chicago, HC Lovie Smith intended to move forward with Orton as his unchallenged starting QB. It was a turf war with Bears' GM Jerry Angelo (Lovie benched Jerry's choice of QB - Rex Grossman - in favor of KO) that caused Orton being traded out of Chicago. And in Denver, the TEAM certainly hasn't made any determination that Orton "isn't the answer." They do seem to be awfully vague and noncommittal about Tebow though...


    Back to you, Hummy...
    I started to tear your post apart further, but declined to do so. It wouldn't be anything that hasn't already been said repeatedly.

    So, I will take my own advice and refrain from turning this thread into yet another pointless argument.

    Leave a comment:


  • MH Stampede
    replied
    Originally posted by neckbeard View Post
    That's your subjective opinion. Showy rah-rah displays? Yeah Tebow's off the charts. But REAL leadership? That's VERY debatable...

    What Tebow did in college is now completely irrelevant. NFL is a whole different game. If you want to talk about "clutch" at the pro level, the Chargers game was within reach and he did nothing at the end.


    Honestly, IMO (which I know is very much in the minority) I don't think he's shown a heck of a lot of improvement as a pocket passer. Which is what both Elway AND Fox both insist he must become proficient at to succeed.

    Yeah, he's a great runner. But that's why teams have running backs. He's supposed to be a QB...


    And yet this "tough" and "durable" guy suffered rib injuries AGAINST SCRUB DEFENDERS IN A MEANINGLESS PRESEASON GAME. He missed playing time over that.


    I don't think that Tebow has shown ANY tendency to improve yet. But Orton has consistently improved as a player each and every year in the NFL...


    It didn't take the Cardinals nearly that much time to realize that their own Heisman-winning, NCAA National-Championship-winning QB wasn't an NFL starting QB. Or for Cleveland to discover that Brady Quinn wasn't the answer. Why should the Broncos waste 3 more seasons before deciding?
    Please, do not turn this thread into yet ANOTHER flamefest.

    Leave a comment:


  • MH Stampede
    replied
    Originally posted by ZeusOnEarth View Post
    This isn't meant to be a thread about starting Tebow, or start Orton, or trade Orton, or let's just wait and get Luck.
    It's meant to be a serious discussion about the Broncos best choice as an organization in terms of
    1. Winning now versus in a year or two
    1. The development of versus the virtually wasted pick on Tebow
    1. The benefits of trading Orton versus the possible detrimental implications of trading Orton
    1. A general comparison of our QB situation to recent QB situations with other teams.


    As for my opinion:
    1. We are in a multi-year rebuilding mode on our path to being Superbowl contenders. Whether we head out with Orton, Quinn, or Tebow it doesn't matter because they could all fail or all succeed. The only variable that matters is where we'll pick at next year. If our QB play is dismal I have no doubt we'll have a top 5 pick and select Luck. If our QB play is subpar to average we'll select a DT. If our QB play is above average we'll still go DL. In that aspect, there is no QB debate because either or all QB's could play poorly or well and all that would change is where we pick at next year.
    1. If we don't start Tebow from Week 1 or if he doesn't start at least half the season I doubt Tebow will get the adequate amount of experience he needs to develop as a QB. Elway has stated numerous times that Tebow is raw and needs development, what other way can a QB get that besides gametime experience? If Tebow doesn't get that experience, the pick on him will have been wasted. Of course the pick will have been wasted if Tebow doesn't pan out, although I think Elway will keep Tebow around because he's a great locker room guy and does have the potential to start if we end up going DL in the first round next year instead of QB.
    1. Many of us, including I, have discussed trading Orton. If we trade Orton we not only pave the way for Tebow to start but we acquire a mid round draft pick or two. The latter, being guaranteed, is more important. Because our plan is to build our team through the draft, we can acquire a good piece or pieces for the team with that pick. However, a question a lot of us may have not thought about is what's the negative implications of trading Orton. The only one I can think about is Orton may have the ability to win more games than Tebow at this point. If that's the case we would have another high 1st next year, and that's not necessarily a negative for a team that's rebuilding.
    1. When I think of our team this year I think of the Buccaneers last year. A new head coach, questionable RB corps, questionable QB, good receiving threats, and a 4-3 defense that should be serviceable at the least. The success of that team all hinged on the development of Josh Freeman, and as most of you know, Freeman played outstanding. Freeman headed into the season with the same things to work on as Tebow, mainly his accuracy, and he showed drastic improvement (54.5% to 61.4%) and his team went 10-6 after a 3-13 season. Hopefully our team and QB will show that same improvement in the upcoming season.


    With all that said, my answers lead me to believe that as an organization, the Broncos would be best served to start Tebow, essentially because we have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
    Good questions.

    I am of the opinion that we need to trade Orton for a pick or two.

    This would also enable us to really find out what we have in Tebow. Is he going to be our QB for the next 10+ years, or not. If he isn't, we need to know so we can look elsewhere.

    Orton may be worth an extra win right now, this year...IF Tebow doesn't improve significantly (which really is the big???). However 1 win is not going to make or break us, as we just are not going to compete for a SB. Consider also that he only has 1 year to go on his deal, it only makes sense to get some long term value out of him while we can in the form of a draft pick or two.

    Looking at the several key circumstances, I would hope we get value for Orton while possible, and find out what we have in Tebow. Given we aren't going to be true contenders this year, it makes the most sense to try to find answers for the next decade, than it is to win 1 more game in a year we aren't likely going to be SB contenders anyway.

    Leave a comment:


  • johnlimburg
    replied
    The thing I love about some people's arguments is that they say Orton didn't get that 11-5 record as a rookie and wasn't responsible for any part of the 6-0 start. I agree that he wasn't the leading force to them however he played a decent role. However when the defense is the worst in the NFL it is all Ortons fault is it.

    Some people are so hypocritical.

    Leave a comment:


  • johnlimburg
    replied
    Originally posted by Humberg View Post
    If motion is all you are interested in, I suggest you stop watching football and just follow the combine, and perhaps a few QB challenges, I don't know, maybe invite Mel Kiper over and you two can have a special day together. I don't mean to suggest this is all you ARE really interested in, just to point out that concerns over his throwing mechanics are greatly exaggerated. He got in there, and there was no problem with zip, no problem with getting the ball out in time, none of the worries that the throwing mechanics "analysts" thought there would be. So what's the big deal? Elway double tapped his throws and side armed it, big deal.

    Exactly. I don't see much wrong with a QB having bad mechanics. Example Phillip Rivers. He has to have THE ugliest throw I have ever seen however he can sling it. I'm not saying Tebow is anywhere close to Rivers right now but his throw IMO isn't something to worry about. Also you cannot compare his throw or say he has an ugly throw like Elway. I don't think anyone can say Tebow has an arm like Elway. Elways when that ball left his hand it was so smooth and like a missile. It is hard to explain. Tebow doesn't have the arm of Elway IMO. He is a different sort of player.

    Really glad that you brought this up. Here's where you shouldn't have gone. Let me throw some numbers at you and see how you do.

    Michael Vick Rookie Year (GS = 2):
    Passing Yards = 785, Comp % = 44.2, Rushing Yards = 289, TD = 3
    Passer rating = 62.7

    Steve Young Rookie Year (GS = 5):
    Passing Yards = 935, Comp % = 52.2, Rushing Yards = 233, TD = 4
    Passer rating = 56.9

    John Elway Rookie Year (GS = 11):
    Passing Yards = 1663, Comp % = 47.5, Rushing Yards = 146, TD = 8
    Passer rating = 54.9

    Kyle Orton Rookie Year (GS = 15):
    Passing Yards = 1869, Comp % = 51.6, Rushing Yards = 44, TD = 9
    Passer rating = 59.7

    Tim Tebow Rookie Year (GS = 3):
    Passing Yards = 654, Comp % = 50.0, Rushing Yards = 227, TD = 11
    Passer rating = 82.1

    So statistically, Tebow had a better passer rating than Vick, Orton, Young or Elway, had about the same completion %, if you average out the number of yards per game, threw for more yards than Elway, Young or Orton and was more accurate than Vick. See, I really don't buy that he is such a different beast than these QB's and you're gonna have to somehow sell me on some facts. See below.

    Tebow was 1-2. Has a losing record as an NFL starting QB. These stats show jack IMO. Remember when Orton had huge stats at the start of 2010 and people said they were garbage and it didn't matter because we were not winning. Therefor these stats are meaningless because Tebow wasn't winning games. Also these stats do not show if he can make the throws that are required of an NFL QB.

    2010: 4-12. And one of those wins belonged to Tebow. Ouch.

    So did two of the loses.
    Thoughts in BOLD
    Last edited by johnlimburg; 05-12-2011, 09:32 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Humberg
    replied
    Originally posted by neckbeard View Post
    But giving Tebow the keys to the team? Nope, not yet. He'll have to honestly beat out Orton and prove that he's the best QB on the team first. He's earned the right to COMPETE, that's it.
    Fair enough. That's where it's all decided anyway. I would never advocate to start someone that didn't play well enough to be the starter. Cheers to you.

    Leave a comment:

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