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I Like Tebow....But It's A Passer's League

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  • IABronco05
    replied
    Originally posted by CanDB View Post
    Passer Friendly League
    Passing is getting easier, as the rules continue to change. Roughing the passer and pass interference have made Ds less effective in what they do best. One long pass interference alone can add about 50 yards to a drive. By the way.....none of these stats show up in passing stats. If you add roughing calls and pass interference to passing yards....we're talking big numbers!
    Good read, agree with this league becoming a passing league, and the Broncos as a team need to adjust.

    What really grinds my gears though is that the defense can get called for PI 50 yards down the field and it costs them 50 yards of field position. While on the other hand if the offense gets called for PI 50 yards down the field, what kind of field position do they lose??? Should be a 15 yard penalty MAX. The NFL exec's have really turned this league into an offensive league, but they need to level the playing field a little bit. All these penalties/rules they have incorporated are tilted towards the offense it is quite ridiculous.

    Some of us still appreciate great defensive football. End rant.

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  • RustyGator
    replied
    Why is it that only 1 of the 4 teams left is a "Passer Friendly" team? New Orleans and New England are the only "Passer Friendly" teams to even get a win this post season. 2 Wins for "Passer Friendly" teams and 6 Wins for "Defense" and/or "Running" teams.

    It seems as though when these "Passer Friendly" teams played some real defenses, they struggled. NE had a super easy schedule this year. They didn't light it up against the real defenses in Dallas, Pitt, and Giants (they did pretty well against KC though).

    Personally, I'd rather have a San Fran defense than a New England offense. Hopefully we'll get to see that happen in a few weeks!

    I still believe a lot of Tebow's numbers are based upon the scheme and his shortcomings as a young passer. He's not a polished veteran, but considering his youth and the scheme that was run, did you really expect more? Did he not exceed your expectations? For a late round 1st pick playing in essentially his first season, I'd say he did pretty damn good. I also saw a lot of improvement in reading defenses and throwing better balls as the games progressed.

    Speaking of stats, Tebow had the highest yards-per-throw for throws over 15 yards. Maybe next year if Tebow gets better at the shorter reads and dump-offs, we'll see those overall yards-per-attempt rise a bit. That's the hope at least!

    I like your analysis though. And I'd love to see this offense incorporate some passing plays to get the ball moving.

    The BIGGEST hurdle, however, is John Fox. He's historically a Run--Run--Throw kind of a coach. I don't think that will change, unfortunately.
    Last edited by RustyGator; 01-18-2012, 09:41 AM.

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  • CanDB
    replied
    Originally posted by Southtown View Post
    The cloned child of Dan Marino & John Elway would not even stop Fox from using a running focused offense. While he is coach, no matter who is QB, this team will think run first on 1st, 2nd, and lots of times on 3rd down too. That is John Fox.

    This will never be a passing team. Never. So, the key is to be able to execute (much better) when passing plays are called. If that happens the offense becomes much more productive.

    They don't need to do anything drastically different ( I would like some bootlegs called tho). They just need to do what they did more efficiently.

    Great Post. Whether I agree or disagree, I respect the work that went into your post.
    Yes....whether we agree or disagree, I appreciate your approach. It proves that GD can be filled with disagreement, but respectful.

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  • Southtown
    replied
    The cloned child of Dan Marino & John Elway would not even stop Fox from using a running focused offense. While he is coach, no matter who is QB, this team will think run first on 1st, 2nd, and lots of times on 3rd down too. That is John Fox.

    This will never be a passing team. Never. So, the key is to be able to execute (much better) when passing plays are called. If that happens the offense becomes much more productive.

    They don't need to do anything drastically different ( I would like some bootlegs called tho). They just need to do what they did more efficiently.

    Great Post. Whether I agree or disagree, I respect the work that went into your post.

    Leave a comment:


  • CanDB
    replied
    It's A Passer League Part II (Still Respect Tebow!!)

    This is a second part to the thread I recently posted about Tim Tebow needing to improve his passing game......in this passer friendly league. I started a new thread, because I put together some stats and analysis that I believe will be wasted in a thread that has lost steam.

    The premise is as follows......passing is the way to go. Many of the QBs in this league are hitting amazing yardage stats.....Brees broke the record, and Rodgers would have if he threw the same number of passes. Brady, Stafford, Manning and so many others, can throw. Newton can throw. Yardage is piling up. On the other hand, Tebow does not resemble a passer.....yet. And he needs to. He needs to work on mechanics, but more important, reading and reacting.

    Lets study some of the stats. And remember, these averages and assumptions can be refuted to some degree, but they are fairly reliable. They are definitely a starting point for discussion.

    Average Yards
    Whether you look at average yards per attempt, or average yards per completion, the fact is......making 1st downs in the air is a pretty good way to go. Eighteen QBs averaged 7 or more yards per pass attempt. That alone suggests that you can expect to gain 20 or more yards on any 3 downs....give or take some exceptions (to be discussed). And if we take Rodgers' stats (I know, he was brilliant most of the year), whereby he averaged 9.2 yards per attempt......that alone reflects almost a 1st down with every pass......again, averages.

    If you look at Rodgers based on yards per completion....he comes in at 13.5 yards. Remember, he completes 2 of 3 passes......makes moving the ball pretty simple in that respect. Lots of 1st downs. Lots of points!

    (Note: I will use Rodgers' stats a bit, but the averages reflect a pretty straightforward conclusion).

    On the other hand, the average team rushes for just over 4 yards per carry. That obviously equates to three plays to make a first down, and if you are held on the first run.....good luck making 10 on the next two.

    (Another note: I seriously believe in the fact that a rushing game is complementary to a pass game and vice versa.)

    What About The Dangers
    On average QBs get sacked about 2 times per game. Therefore you lose 5-10 yards a pop......but, based on the above, a guy like Rodgers (and many others) can make that up on the next two passes. Then again, you don't make 1st downs every time you get the ball, so lets not be too hard on ourselves if we aren't perfect!

    On average QBs get picked off about 1 time per game. That's a setback. But if it's a mid to long pass, it may not be a drastic outcome. Further, Rodgers got picked 40% of his games ...... in his case, out of every 5 games he averaged getting intercepted only 2 of those games. That's not exactly scary stuff! Even so, if the league average is around 1 per game, that's not to bad.

    Passer Friendly League
    Passing is getting easier, as the rules continue to change. Roughing the passer and pass interference have made Ds less effective in what they do best. One long pass interference alone can add about 50 yards to a drive. By the way.....none of these stats show up in passing stats. If you add roughing calls and pass interference to passing yards....we're talking big numbers!

    Get There Quicker
    Passing can move the ball quickly. Obviously the yardage gained is larger than running. Incomplete passes stop the clock. Receivers can get out of bounds. The clock hardly moves, other than on longer plays that take time to reset after. This isn't a key thing, but it is when you are down. Running chews up time. Then again.....maybe that's why The Pats and Packers had poorer D stats.....they didn't get enough rest!!!

    ~~~~~~~

    Sure I used Rodgers' stats and averages and simple analysis......but in the end, I am convinced that passing is on the rise. The stats support it, the rules work to its advantage, and strategic coaches understand how to get it done. And running the ball is a wonderful thing.....but it needs to be supported with an effective pass game. New England, Green Bay and New Orleans used the pass to make statements. San Fran is a great team, but relied on Smith and Davis to pull out that playoff game. If Flacco is on, Baltimore has enough tools. And watch out for Schaub next year as well. If he's healthy, Houston will be tough!

    ~~~~~

    And I believe we beat The Steelers, who were wavering to some degree, because Tim threw for over 300 yards.

    Okay......once again, I like Tebow the person, and the leader and the athlete. But unless he improves his pass game next year, and early, he may not be "the guy". His oline is getting better, and we have and can find him the right receivers....but can he deliver? Teams will defend him differently. If New England, a poor D overall, can stop him....what do you think the others will do, given time?

    ~~~~~

    It's a pass friendly league....lets be part of it.

    Leave a comment:


  • demosthenes9
    replied
    Originally posted by kentucky bronc View Post
    demo i think alot of people on this board just have an interest in seeing Tebow succeed and will throw any players or coaches under the bus to try and make people think he is better than what the eye test shows. ( not saying you are one of them). I f i thought he had the potential to be "THE MAN" i would be first in line to sing his praises....
    kentucky bronc,

    I can appreciate and respect that. Of course, I see it exactly opposite. I think he has a ton of potential and the "problems" that he has can be overcome.

    Funny thing about your comment of "will throw any coaches or players under the bus". This is a Bronco site right ? How many people here believe that Elway and the Broncos were held back/shackled by Dan Reeves ? That once Reeves was gone, Elway was able to do what Elway did best, and that helped win 2 SBs for the Broncos ?

    I'd wager that a huge percentage believe that. Would you agree ?

    If that's the case, why am I or others considered to be homers or fanboys and accused of throwing someone under the bus, or of making excuses, when we voice our discontent with the playcalling under McCoy/Fox ?

    I mean, for just about any other QB on the planet, people will accept if you say that you believe that the system that they are in limits them. Or perhaps it's the talent (or lack thereof).

    But if you say that about Tebow, nope, you are a homer making excuses.

    So why did Elway play so inconsistently his first year, and why did the Bronco's lose three SB's before winning the 2 under Shanahan ?

    Leave a comment:


  • kentucky bronc
    replied
    demo i think alot of people on this board just have an interest in seeing Tebow succeed and will throw any players or coaches under the bus to try and make people think he is better than what the eye test shows. ( not saying you are one of them). I f i thought he had the potential to be "THE MAN" i would be first in line to sing his praises....

    Leave a comment:


  • demosthenes9
    replied
    Originally posted by neckbeard View Post
    Who?

    The Pats use it occasionally, but it isn't their base package.

    So who is running a spread O in the NFL?

    At it's core, the Spread offense is 4 or 5 receivers with the QB in the Shotgun. That's it really. There are a ton of variations where coaches put their own spin into the offense, but again, this is the core.

    In the NFL, it used to be that IF teams used the shotgun, they really only used it on 3rd downs. Look around the league today. Heck, look at the Pats v Broncos game, remember how many times Brady was in the Gun on 1st and 2nd downs ?


    Originally posted by arapaho View Post
    pats run it most of the game with two Tes out

    the packers use it

    carolina used it alot with cam

    lions use it
    Don't forget the Saints and the Bills.

    Leave a comment:


  • kentucky bronc
    replied
    No way DB do we bring in more like Tebow. He is the best at running this type offense and it is still awful. I think Elway is to smart to waste a draft on this style of play. After what was said at the press conference i think we may go another direction after everything calms down ...

    Leave a comment:


  • CanDB
    replied
    Originally posted by BlueOrange7 View Post
    I'm in agreeance, TT will show what he is really made of next year, when all the other 31 teams in the league have a years worth of tape on him. Not to mention, were playing a pretty rough schedule. If anyone can make strides like he needs to though, TT is the guy to do it. I was a complete TT hater and discounted the things he brings to the table and focused on his lack of passing ability but was wrong and this year proved me that.

    I think this organization is doing exactly what they should do with TT. Give him the confidence heading into camp, but don't promise a long contract and a starting job beyond that. He has a ton of work to do, the whole team does. I think we are in a great position/and we are acquring young talent in the mean time.

    Year 3 will be TT's true audition as a long-term solution for the Denver Broncos. I really hope he comes out next year and blows people away like he did this year.

    I'm not saying he needs to turn into Tom Brady but he does need to improve his passing ability to the likes of.... say Ben Rotheslberger. He will improve, he will read defenses better, be quicker with his decisions and be more poised in NFL game situations but it all comes down to wins and if we play a offense like New England/Detroit/Green Bay etc., our whole team needs to make it a point to not let these landslide losses happen

    Yah......I will be honest.......after last year's finish, I thought Tim would be our 2011 starter, and be a better passer as well. The labour disruption messed him up and many others. When he got the starter position this year, I was surprised to see his lack of progress in that part of the game. And it made me reconsider what everyone was saying last offseason....that he was looking pretty bad, and didn't deserve to start.

    Of course we also learned that his intangibles and excellent run skills provided us with some much needed leadership/production....at the right time!

    But next year I expect a real tight assessment of his future here. I expect our management team to be tough on him, if he doesn't improve. I also would not be surprised to see us bring in one serious competitor for the job. I don't doubt we'll draft a QB at some point. Maybe not a high pick, but still, someone who Elway can buy into. The trick is.......do you bring in guys who play like Tebow or do you bring in more conventional types. Whoever it is, I expect them to have decent arms....

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  • BlueOrange7
    replied
    Originally posted by CanDB View Post
    If you judge this post by the cover (title) you may assume that I don't see Tim Tebow in our future. My response to that would be.......you are right and maybe wrong. (BTW......I do like the guy!!)

    Tim needs to grow into a passer, and he has to do it relatively soon. He can run all over the field, but like what we saw this weekend, there are reasons that his style may not be in our best interests for the long term....

    1) The Pats, who have a relatively poor D, had the option figured out really well this weekend. If they can figure it out and defend against it, the rest of the league won't be too far behind.
    2) If you haven't noticed......the teams who are excelling are the teams that can throw the ball. Clearly Rodgers had an off day, as did his receivers, but we know what he is capable of......and in the case of the loss, his opponent -Manning, was throwing the ball, and for lots of yardage! This wasn't a Giants' run game that won the game.....it was passing and their D.

    And Brady is an arm. We all know that. They say he has all those weapons, but really.......how many teams could be as productive with two TEs, and some little guys receiving the ball....with hardly any run attack? Passing baby!!!

    Brees played his typical pass oriented game, and did what he could to win, only to lose to a "Passing stud" named Alex Smith!!!! Seriously, the field manager threw amazingly well on Saturday, and that's why they won the game.....that was the only way for them to hold off New Orleans.

    In the other game, Flacco won, in his conservative way, but had Schaub been there for Houston (watch out for next year!!), I believe the Oilers easily win that game.

    And as for us.....Tebow threw for a lot of yardage against Pittsburgh.....if he doesn't throw so many bombs, I don't think we get past the Steelers.

    ~~~~~~

    It's a passing game. If you can't move the ball quickly, you may get left behind. For Tim to be successful, and for Elway to fully appreciate him, he's got to make big strides towards passing competency......and I don't just mean mechanics. We're talking reading Ds, and making better, quicker decisions. Don't blame our oline.....often they have given him plenty of time.....he just gets lost out there at times. It's serious business, and he still has a ways to go, learning how, where and when to pass.

    And for me, too much option will become a dying art in the NFL. Teams will be more ready. If on the other hand, TT upgrades his pass game, everything else will work. Teams can't D everything he does, if he gets the arm going.

    I am still not convinced. But I am convinced in one thing....

    I really do like and respect the dude!!!
    I'm in agreeance, TT will show what he is really made of next year, when all the other 31 teams in the league have a years worth of tape on him. Not to mention, were playing a pretty rough schedule. If anyone can make strides like he needs to though, TT is the guy to do it. I was a complete TT hater and discounted the things he brings to the table and focused on his lack of passing ability but was wrong and this year proved me that.

    I think this organization is doing exactly what they should do with TT. Give him the confidence heading into camp, but don't promise a long contract and a starting job beyond that. He has a ton of work to do, the whole team does. I think we are in a great position/and we are acquring young talent in the mean time.

    Year 3 will be TT's true audition as a long-term solution for the Denver Broncos. I really hope he comes out next year and blows people away like he did this year.

    I'm not saying he needs to turn into Tom Brady but he does need to improve his passing ability to the likes of.... say Ben Rotheslberger. He will improve, he will read defenses better, be quicker with his decisions and be more poised in NFL game situations but it all comes down to wins and if we play a offense like New England/Detroit/Green Bay etc., our whole team needs to make it a point to not let these landslide losses happen

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  • BroncoSexyDaddy
    replied
    If we trade for Persey Harvin and sign DeSean Jackson or Vincent Jackson his passer rating will go up.It seems to be all on Tim when we lose with mostly mediocre WRs and TEs. He has proven to get a lot better than he was to start the season.

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  • arapaho
    replied
    Originally posted by neckbeard View Post
    Who?

    The Pats use it occasionally, but it isn't their base package.

    So who is running a spread O in the NFL?
    pats run it most of the game with two Tes out

    the packers use it

    carolina used it alot with cam

    lions use it

    Leave a comment:


  • neckbeard
    replied
    Originally posted by demosthenes9 View Post
    Those intelligent minds are slow to change and many of them are risk averse. The Spread has been around the college scene for years, but it took time to make it into the NFL and now, a number of very successful teams use it.

    Think about this, how many offenses in the NFL are acutally innovative in any way ?
    Who?

    The Pats use it occasionally, but it isn't their base package.

    So who is running a spread O in the NFL?

    Leave a comment:


  • demosthenes9
    replied
    Originally posted by kentucky bronc View Post
    With all the intelligent minds that are in the nfl today and in the past, there is a reason why the read option is not an offense that teams run much less try and build around. I think that is what Tebow is, thats what he is good at, damn good at. I think Tim is the type of qb who can keep us 6-10 or 7-9 for years. I hate to go into another season with no real chance at being a true contender or feel like we are headed in that direction.......hope i am wrong but i think what we seen this year is what you are gonna get from Tebow......
    Those intelligent minds are slow to change and many of them are risk averse. The Spread has been around the college scene for years, but it took time to make it into the NFL and now, a number of very successful teams use it.

    Think about this, how many offenses in the NFL are acutally innovative in any way ?

    Leave a comment:

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