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I Like Tebow....But It's A Passer's League

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  • Capt. Jack
    replied
    Originally posted by Hadez View Post
    I personally think all we need a little better play calling, a little better play by Tebow, a little better play by the OL and a little better hands from the guys getting the ball thrown to them.

    At this point I can not believe anyone who has watched what the Broncos have gone through the past 3-4 years wants to change the qb now.

    Maybe after 2012 if Tebow does not show improvement we move on but at this point I think some people actually do think he is Jesus the way they expect him to play RIGHT NOW with zero full offseasons in the NFL, almost zero time being prepared to be the starting qb in the offseason with an offense that was designed after week 7

    Omg Tebow why aren't you as good as Rodgers and Brady RIGHT NOW...your baby Jesus
    Great post, but you're not talking about the real Baby Jesus are you ? That tends to get to get people in trouble around these parts! :-) (GB#15)

    Leave a comment:


  • Hadez
    replied
    I personally think all we need a little better play calling, a little better play by Tebow, a little better play by the OL and a little better hands from the guys getting the ball thrown to them.

    At this point I can not believe anyone who has watched what the Broncos have gone through the past 3-4 years wants to change the qb now.

    Maybe after 2012 if Tebow does not show improvement we move on but at this point I think some people actually do think he is Jesus the way they expect him to play RIGHT NOW with zero full offseasons in the NFL, almost zero time being prepared to be the starting qb in the offseason with an offense that was designed after week 7

    Omg Tebow why aren't you as good as Rodgers and Brady RIGHT NOW...your baby Jesus

    Leave a comment:


  • CanDB
    replied
    Originally posted by RustyGator View Post
    That's great data for sure. I think the point I was more trying to make was these teams have won this year based on solid D play and not "airing it out" like the Pats, Pack, or Saints. Additionally, while I don't have data to back it up, I assume Baltimore and San Fran have a lot of their "passing attempts" from short screen, etc. (which in my book are essentially runs) -- which I actually wish Denver would run more often (remember that screen to Moreno against San Diego...beauty).

    Again, I don't disagree that the Broncos should go more pass heavy. I just doubt it will ever happen no matter who the OC, as long as John Fox is the coach.

    In my book, always follow what Bill Belichick is doing ASAP. That guy is a genius. The 2 TE scheme he's been implementing is a thing of beauty.

    btw - I'm loving this objective thread. Such a breath of fresh air.
    THis is definitely the way to discuss, debate....even argue to some degree. Being objective trumps subjectivity and all that emotional stuff that can get in the way. Don't get me wrong, I love passion....as long as it is blanced with some logic.

    And as for Belichick....I don't like him, but he has vision.....teams don't know how to defend those two big dudes, along with Welker and company. Too many problems. Brady has a field day out there.

    :thumb:
    Last edited by CanDB; 01-18-2012, 11:00 AM.

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  • CanDB
    replied
    Originally posted by PhoenixDread View Post
    I wasn't referring to your post. I apologize if I made it look that way. He'll definitely improve with help from Elway. By how much though, is what remains to be seen.
    Cool bud......sorry for my part.

    :thumb:

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  • RustyGator
    replied
    Originally posted by SM19
    Because... that's not actually true? At least three out of the four remaining teams called more passing than running plays this year, and possibly all four, depending on how many of Alex Smith's running plays were designed vs. scramble. Each team had more adjusted yards per passing attempt than yards per rushing attempt.

    The Giants and Pats were pretty clearly pass-heavy; as an aside, the Giants had the least effective running game in the league with 3.5 yards per carry. The Ravens were also pretty pass-heavy, with 544 passing attempts and 33 sacks to 459 rushing attempts. The Niners were almost perfectly balanced, with 451 passing attempts and 44 sacks to 498 rush attempts. Neither the Ravens nor the Niners had an especially effective passing attack, but what they did have was excellent pass defense. That, more than their running games, has gotten them to this point.
    That's great data for sure. I think the point I was more trying to make was these teams have won this year based on solid D play and not "airing it out" like the Pats, Pack, or Saints. Additionally, while I don't have data to back it up, I assume Baltimore and San Fran have a lot of their "passing attempts" from short screen, etc. (which in my book are essentially runs) -- which I actually wish Denver would run more often (remember that screen to Moreno against San Diego...beauty).

    Again, I don't disagree that the Broncos should go more pass heavy. I just doubt it will ever happen no matter who the OC, as long as John Fox is the coach.

    In my book, always follow what Bill Belichick is doing ASAP. That guy is a genius. The 2 TE scheme he's been implementing is a thing of beauty.

    btw - I'm loving this objective thread. Such a breath of fresh air.

    Leave a comment:


  • PhoenixDread
    replied
    Originally posted by CanDB View Post
    I for one did not say he can't throw......I said he needs to work on mechanics, but more important, his ability to read Ds and react to them HAS TO IMPROVE.

    That's not nonsense........in case you were referring to my post(s).
    I wasn't referring to your post. I apologize if I made it look that way. He'll definitely improve with help from Elway. By how much though, is what remains to be seen.

    Leave a comment:


  • Capt. Jack
    replied
    Originally posted by Southtown View Post
    The cloned child of Dan Marino & John Elway would not even stop Fox from using a running focused offense. While he is coach, no matter who is QB, this team will think run first on 1st, 2nd, and lots of times on 3rd down too. That is John Fox.

    This will never be a passing team. Never. So, the key is to be able to execute (much better) when passing plays are called. If that happens the offense becomes much more productive.

    They don't need to do anything drastically different ( I would like some bootlegs called tho). They just need to do what they did more efficiently.

    Great Post. Whether I agree or disagree, I respect the work that went into your post.
    I was wondering which clone would be better, Marino/Elway or Montana/Farve ? :-)

    Leave a comment:


  • CanDB
    replied
    Originally posted by SM19
    Because... that's not actually true? At least three out of the four remaining teams called more passing than running plays this year, and possibly all four, depending on how many of Alex Smith's running plays were designed vs. scramble. Each team had more adjusted yards per passing attempt than yards per rushing attempt.

    The Giants and Pats were pretty clearly pass-heavy; as an aside, the Giants had the least effective running game in the league with 3.5 yards per carry. The Ravens were also pretty pass-heavy, with 544 passing attempts and 33 sacks to 459 rushing attempts. The Niners were almost perfectly balanced, with 451 passing attempts and 44 sacks to 498 rush attempts. Neither the Ravens nor the Niners had an especially effective passing attack, but what they did have was excellent pass defense. That, more than their running games, has gotten them to this point.
    I like it when members do some research....the more we do that, the more data we all have to assess with.

    :thumb:

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  • CanDB
    replied
    Originally posted by PhoenixDread View Post
    As much as I'd love for him to be elite, I'd be more than happy if his skills peaked at the level of Plummer. Just enough to shut up the "he can't throw" nonsense
    I for one did not say he can't throw......I said he needs to work on mechanics, but more important, his ability to read Ds and react to them HAS TO IMPROVE.

    That's not nonsense........in case you were referring to my post(s).

    Leave a comment:


  • IABronco05
    replied
    Originally posted by #87Birdman View Post
    Well I agree with league with the Defensive PI because if it was just 15 yards once your pass 15 yards and your beat and they are going to get a big gain just tackle the WR because even if you get hit with the flag that is just 15 yards you gave up and not a potential TD if they catch it and take it the distance. Now there are other rules I don't agree with, and yes they are becoming to offensive as a league. I think the CB should be able to keep fighting with the WR until the ball is thrown, and not restricted to the 5 yard zone. But the PI needs to stay the same.
    What if the roles were reversed in that scenario?? (WR tackles CB who is obviously going to get a pick and return, not necessarily for a TD, but a returnable INT nonetheless)

    The defense gains 10 yards, that's it. All these rules are supposed to equal the playing field and/or protect players, but that doesn't exactly seem fair to me, does it??

    I may be in the minority

    Leave a comment:


  • PhoenixDread
    replied
    As much as I'd love for him to be elite, I'd be more than happy if his skills peaked at the level of Plummer. Just enough to shut up the "he can't throw" nonsense

    Leave a comment:


  • Oilersfan34
    replied
    Post of the week!!! Great work crazy8.

    Everyone on both sides of the tebow debate should read this.

    QUOTE=Crazy8;4251676]No one can argue that it's a passing league. But when you watch a Rodgers or a Brees, sure they go downfield, but not as much as Tebow goes downfield.

    That's what I kept saying all year. People would point at Tebow completing 40-something percent of his passes. But I'd say that these passes were all down the field.

    When you take the official stat of Yards per attempt, it shows Tebow at 6.38. That is due to his awful completion percentage, which to me is due to the awful play-calling. I understand taking a few shots down the field. I can't understand having more than a few shots down the field unless they are utterly wide open. I'm talking broken coverages.

    To me, with 8 or 9 in the box versus Cover 1, Cover 0, or Cover 3, we should've been attacking the flats, the curls, and the outs mostly. Like against the Patriots, if you notice, the D is overplaying the seams and the deep routes, and even the deep middle routes because that's what they expect from us.

    That leaves the underneath open. How many times did we attack underneath against the Patriots? It wasn't much. So, basically we're attacking the teeth of their coverage.

    Now, I'm not going to say it was all McCoy's fault, because it wasn't. I think our QB has a bit of a greedy mentality and disregards the underneath routes. Those, to me, are the routes he should be looking at first. He should be looking deep, sure, but that's to pull the coverage vertically before he comes underneath. If the defense is slow to react, then sure, go for it deep. But defenses won't make a habit of being slow to react vertically for long.

    I keep talking about the Lions game where Tebow was playing in a scheme where he's screwed. Right? He was 18 for 39 in that game for 172 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT. We had 9 vertical routes against a Cover 3. Tebow saw 1 corner out there versus 1 wideout and took a shot. Bad move when that 1 corner has leverage over the top. I really wish he would stop doing that unless he's more adept at the back shoulder throw. Anyway, those 9 passes against horrible coverage shouldn't have been called or thrown. Take those 9 plays away and he was a respectable 18 for 30 for 172 yards 1TD and 1 INT. That's not screwed. That's what we should've been doing to develop this guy.

    I agree with you that Tebow needs to develop. I think I'm too hard on Mike McCoy because Mike McCoy didn't want to go the option route because I think he thought the same as me. It would slow the growth of Tebow the passer. And, though it won us some games, I wish more had been devoted to developing the short passing game. It comes with reps, and that's what we need to do.

    After the Pittsburgh game, I kept saying that playing offense that way wasn't sustainable. Averaging 31 yards a completion is definitely not sustainable. I also keep saying, give me a 4 for 5 for 28 yards versus a 1 for 5 for 28 yards. Because the 4 for 5 for 28 yards is sustainable.

    But to me, it seemed like we kept going down the field. We were attacking the deep thirds, the hole under the safeties, and the deep halfs. It's just my opinion, but that's not a sustainable attack. If you send 4 verticals against a cover 3, once they get into that 30 yard range, 1 player can cover 2 verticals. So that principle never made sense to me. Even if you look the deep middle safety off, you're looking the offside corner over to where you want to go. Not good. But I digress.

    I agree with you that Tebow needs to develop into a passer. But we need to give Tebow the opportunity to run a sustainable attack as a passer. Those little 3 or 4 yard passes are still a good 3 or 4 yards. If that's what the D is giving you, take it. All of that eventually opens up the downfield stuff.

    The attack I want to run is a lot like a West Coast offensive attack. A lot of movement by the QB. Roll him out, cut the field down, throw some short, high-percentage passes. If you get 3 yards out of it? Fine, take it. It's 3 yards more than an incomplete pass would give you. The emphasis wouldn't be on big plays down the field. It would be on simply 1st downs. Move the chains. Keep that TOP clock running.

    That's what I mean by giving Tebow a sustainable passing attack.[/QUOTE]

    Leave a comment:


  • #87Birdman
    replied
    Originally posted by IABronco05 View Post
    Good read, agree with this league becoming a passing league, and the Broncos as a team need to adjust.

    What really grinds my gears though is that the defense can get called for PI 50 yards down the field and it costs them 50 yards of field position. While on the other hand if the offense gets called for PI 50 yards down the field, what kind of field position do they lose??? Should be a 15 yard penalty MAX. The NFL exec's have really turned this league into an offensive league, but they need to level the playing field a little bit. All these penalties/rules they have incorporated are tilted towards the offense it is quite ridiculous.

    Some of us still appreciate great defensive football. End rant.
    Well I agree with league with the Defensive PI because if it was just 15 yards once your pass 15 yards and your beat and they are going to get a big gain just tackle the WR because even if you get hit with the flag that is just 15 yards you gave up and not a potential TD if they catch it and take it the distance. Now there are other rules I don't agree with, and yes they are becoming to offensive as a league. I think the CB should be able to keep fighting with the WR until the ball is thrown, and not restricted to the 5 yard zone. But the PI needs to stay the same.

    Leave a comment:


  • CanDB
    replied
    Originally posted by RustyGator View Post
    Why is it that only 1 of the 4 teams left is a "Passer Friendly" team? New Orleans and New England are the only "Passer Friendly" teams to even get a win this post season. 2 Wins for "Passer Friendly" teams and 6 Wins for "Defense" and/or "Running" teams.

    It seems as though when these "Passer Friendly" teams played some real defenses, they struggled. NE had a super easy schedule this year. They didn't light it up against the real defenses in Dallas, Pitt, and Giants (they did pretty well against KC though).

    Personally, I'd rather have a San Fran defense than a New England offense. Hopefully we'll get to see that happen in a few weeks!

    I still believe a lot of Tebow's numbers are based upon the scheme and his shortcomings as a young passer. He's not a polished veteran, but considering his youth and the scheme that was run, did you really expect more? Did he not exceed your expectations? For a late round 1st pick playing in essentially his first season, I'd say he did pretty damn good. I also saw a lot of improvement in reading defenses and throwing better balls as the games progressed.

    Speaking of stats, Tebow had the highest yards-per-throw for throws over 15 yards. Maybe next year if Tebow gets better at the shorter reads and dump-offs, we'll see those overall yards-per-attempt rise a bit. That's the hope at least!

    I like your analysis though. And I'd love to see this offense incorporate some passing plays to get the ball moving.

    The BIGGEST hurdle, however, is John Fox. He's historically a Run--Run--Throw kind of a coach. I don't think that will change, unfortunately.
    Good stuff.....but I really do see a lot of pass oriented teams making some noise.....and sure, throw in some good D. I love D.

    Just giving my assessment based on what I observe.....and being quite straightforward about our young QB. I qualify with "I like the guy" a bit, because I do not want to be perceived as someone who never wanted him to be our leader. I thought he was going in the right direction late last year, and I saw more of that, sometimes sporadically, this year. I never question his leadership, heart, athleticism and teamwork.

    Just don't want this to be subjective vs objective.

    Leave a comment:


  • Crazy8
    replied
    Originally posted by CanDB View Post
    This is a second part to the thread I recently posted about Tim Tebow needing to improve his passing game......in this passer friendly league. I started a new thread, because I put together some stats and analysis that I believe will be wasted in a thread that has lost steam.

    The premise is as follows......passing is the way to go. Many of the QBs in this league are hitting amazing yardage stats.....Brees broke the record, and Rodgers would have if he threw the same number of passes. Brady, Stafford, Manning and so many others, can throw. Newton can throw. Yardage is piling up. On the other hand, Tebow does not resemble a passer.....yet. And he needs to. He needs to work on mechanics, but more important, reading and reacting.

    Lets study some of the stats. And remember, these averages and assumptions can be refuted to some degree, but they are fairly reliable. They are definitely a starting point for discussion.

    Average Yards
    Whether you look at average yards per attempt, or average yards per completion, the fact is......making 1st downs in the air is a pretty good way to go. Eighteen QBs averaged 7 or more yards per pass attempt. That alone suggests that you can expect to gain 20 or more yards on any 3 downs....give or take some exceptions (to be discussed). And if we take Rodgers' stats (I know, he was brilliant most of the year), whereby he averaged 9.2 yards per attempt......that alone reflects almost a 1st down with every pass......again, averages.

    If you look at Rodgers based on yards per completion....he comes in at 13.5 yards. Remember, he completes 2 of 3 passes......makes moving the ball pretty simple in that respect. Lots of 1st downs. Lots of points!

    (Note: I will use Rodgers' stats a bit, but the averages reflect a pretty straightforward conclusion).

    On the other hand, the average team rushes for just over 4 yards per carry. That obviously equates to three plays to make a first down, and if you are held on the first run.....good luck making 10 on the next two.

    (Another note: I seriously believe in the fact that a rushing game is complementary to a pass game and vice versa.)

    What About The Dangers
    On average QBs get sacked about 2 times per game. Therefore you lose 5-10 yards a pop......but, based on the above, a guy like Rodgers (and many others) can make that up on the next two passes. Then again, you don't make 1st downs every time you get the ball, so lets not be too hard on ourselves if we aren't perfect!

    On average QBs get picked off about 1 time per game. That's a setback. But if it's a mid to long pass, it may not be a drastic outcome. Further, Rodgers got picked 40% of his games ...... in his case, out of every 5 games he averaged getting intercepted only 2 of those games. That's not exactly scary stuff! Even so, if the league average is around 1 per game, that's not to bad.

    Passer Friendly League
    Passing is getting easier, as the rules continue to change. Roughing the passer and pass interference have made Ds less effective in what they do best. One long pass interference alone can add about 50 yards to a drive. By the way.....none of these stats show up in passing stats. If you add roughing calls and pass interference to passing yards....we're talking big numbers!

    Get There Quicker
    Passing can move the ball quickly. Obviously the yardage gained is larger than running. Incomplete passes stop the clock. Receivers can get out of bounds. The clock hardly moves, other than on longer plays that take time to reset after. This isn't a key thing, but it is when you are down. Running chews up time. Then again.....maybe that's why The Pats and Packers had poorer D stats.....they didn't get enough rest!!!

    ~~~~~~~

    Sure I used Rodgers' stats and averages and simple analysis......but in the end, I am convinced that passing is on the rise. The stats support it, the rules work to its advantage, and strategic coaches understand how to get it done. And running the ball is a wonderful thing.....but it needs to be supported with an effective pass game. New England, Green Bay and New Orleans used the pass to make statements. San Fran is a great team, but relied on Smith and Davis to pull out that playoff game. If Flacco is on, Baltimore has enough tools. And watch out for Schaub next year as well. If he's healthy, Houston will be tough!

    ~~~~~

    And I believe we beat The Steelers, who were wavering to some degree, because Tim threw for over 300 yards.

    Okay......once again, I like Tebow the person, and the leader and the athlete. But unless he improves his pass game next year, and early, he may not be "the guy". His oline is getting better, and we have and can find him the right receivers....but can he deliver? Teams will defend him differently. If New England, a poor D overall, can stop him....what do you think the others will do, given time?

    ~~~~~

    It's a pass friendly league....lets be part of it.
    No one can argue that it's a passing league. But when you watch a Rodgers or a Brees, sure they go downfield, but not as much as Tebow goes downfield.

    That's what I kept saying all year. People would point at Tebow completing 40-something percent of his passes. But I'd say that these passes were all down the field.

    When you take the official stat of Yards per attempt, it shows Tebow at 6.38. That is due to his awful completion percentage, which to me is due to the awful play-calling. I understand taking a few shots down the field. I can't understand having more than a few shots down the field unless they are utterly wide open. I'm talking broken coverages.

    To me, with 8 or 9 in the box versus Cover 1, Cover 0, or Cover 3, we should've been attacking the flats, the curls, and the outs mostly. Like against the Patriots, if you notice, the D is overplaying the seams and the deep routes, and even the deep middle routes because that's what they expect from us.

    That leaves the underneath open. How many times did we attack underneath against the Patriots? It wasn't much. So, basically we're attacking the teeth of their coverage.

    Now, I'm not going to say it was all McCoy's fault, because it wasn't. I think our QB has a bit of a greedy mentality and disregards the underneath routes. Those, to me, are the routes he should be looking at first. He should be looking deep, sure, but that's to pull the coverage vertically before he comes underneath. If the defense is slow to react, then sure, go for it deep. But defenses won't make a habit of being slow to react vertically for long.

    I keep talking about the Lions game where Tebow was playing in a scheme where he's screwed. Right? He was 18 for 39 in that game for 172 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT. We had 9 vertical routes against a Cover 3. Tebow saw 1 corner out there versus 1 wideout and took a shot. Bad move when that 1 corner has leverage over the top. I really wish he would stop doing that unless he's more adept at the back shoulder throw. Anyway, those 9 passes against horrible coverage shouldn't have been called or thrown. Take those 9 plays away and he was a respectable 18 for 30 for 172 yards 1TD and 1 INT. That's not screwed. That's what we should've been doing to develop this guy.

    I agree with you that Tebow needs to develop. I think I'm too hard on Mike McCoy because Mike McCoy didn't want to go the option route because I think he thought the same as me. It would slow the growth of Tebow the passer. And, though it won us some games, I wish more had been devoted to developing the short passing game. It comes with reps, and that's what we need to do.

    After the Pittsburgh game, I kept saying that playing offense that way wasn't sustainable. Averaging 31 yards a completion is definitely not sustainable. I also keep saying, give me a 4 for 5 for 28 yards versus a 1 for 5 for 28 yards. Because the 4 for 5 for 28 yards is sustainable.

    But to me, it seemed like we kept going down the field. We were attacking the deep thirds, the hole under the safeties, and the deep halfs. It's just my opinion, but that's not a sustainable attack. If you send 4 verticals against a cover 3, once they get into that 30 yard range, 1 player can cover 2 verticals. So that principle never made sense to me. Even if you look the deep middle safety off, you're looking the offside corner over to where you want to go. Not good. But I digress.

    I agree with you that Tebow needs to develop into a passer. But we need to give Tebow the opportunity to run a sustainable attack as a passer. Those little 3 or 4 yard passes are still a good 3 or 4 yards. If that's what the D is giving you, take it. All of that eventually opens up the downfield stuff.

    The attack I want to run is a lot like a West Coast offensive attack. A lot of movement by the QB. Roll him out, cut the field down, throw some short, high-percentage passes. If you get 3 yards out of it? Fine, take it. It's 3 yards more than an incomplete pass would give you. The emphasis wouldn't be on big plays down the field. It would be on simply 1st downs. Move the chains. Keep that TOP clock running.

    That's what I mean by giving Tebow a sustainable passing attack.

    Leave a comment:

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