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Which playoff scenario is more likely?

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  • Which playoff scenario is more likely?

    The Broncos have 2 ways to get a first round bye and Home Field Advantage guaranteed until the AFCCG. Both will need the Broncos to win out. Which is more likely?

    1. Patriots lose 1 game- Patriots have been hot recently and showed it when they took the #1 seed in the AFC behind the woodshed this weekend. There is still a possibility they could lose to a good defensive team in the middle such as the 49ers. Lets face it, the 49ers are the only ones left on the Patriots schedule that stand a chance. If the Patriots lose and Broncos win out then the Broncos will be guaranteed at least the 2 seed.

    or

    2. Texans lose 2 games- The Texans have been in a backslide recently, almost losing several close games against non playoff teams and then gettig their trash kicked by the Patriots. The Texans have 2 games coming up against their top divisional foe, the much improved Colts. The Colts should have plenty of incentive to show up in these games because following this loss the Colts would clinch the division if they win out. The Texans also play the not -to-shabby Vikings. Is it Possible they lose 2 out of the last 3 and allow the Broncos to finish top 2?
    46
    Patriots lose 1 game
    52.17%
    24
    Texans lose 2 games
    47.83%
    22

    The poll is expired.

    I've found that prayer works best when you have big players... and Peyton Manning.

  • #2
    Both have to happen, actually.

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    • #3
      Tough one, don't see either one happening whatsoever, but I'm going to go w/ the Patriots losing 1 game, to SF.
      sigpic

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      • #4
        Nevermind. I'm tired. I misread your initial post. :facepalm:

        EDIT: I voted for Houston losing two. They have to play the Colts twice, who are hot right now while the Texans are banged up and missing a lot of key players on D. They've barely pulled out some close wins over non-playoff teams and showed tonight they can't hang with a contender. I think the Colts take them twice.
        Last edited by jetrazor74; 12-11-2012, 12:20 AM.

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        • #5
          The one seed is not out of the picture (let's go Colts!)

          I knew going into tonight that the Texans wouldn't win. After they were exposed like that, I think the Colts can follow the Pat's blueprint and go to Houston and win next week. Matt Schaub simply does not inspire confidence down the stretch, and with their last two games being Vikings and Colts again (in Indy), I feel that they'll drop a second one as well. The Colts only have them twice and an easy win in KC, so they'll be fighting. If it comes down to week 17, I believe in the Colts Lucking up a lot more than anything Houston can do. That would leave the Colts in first in the AFC South at 12-4, and the Texans at 12-4 in second.

          As for the rest, the Ravens seem to be falling apart, and that is the only game we should possibly lose on paper. I don't know if we will, but we can and should win out. All that leaves is the Patriots. They look great, and honestly even with two more losses needed I see us passing the Texans easier than the Pats, but SF beating them isn't an unreasonable dream. So for the next three weeks, let's not just be Denver fans, but also show some love to Peyton's old team.
          Last edited by qLir; 12-11-2012, 12:56 AM.

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          • #6
            Huston would need to lose two of their last 3 and Patriots need to lose one while we win out. I think we can do our part easily enough as the Ravens are losing control in their FO. The best chance for NE to lose one is next Sunday night, the problem is that NE does not lose at home in December. I can see Huston losing Two, like I said in a previous post, Huston is starting to show signs of wearing down, and Indy is looking for a division title.
            sigpic

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            • #7
              One problem is that the Colts aren't anywhere close to as good as their record suggests.

              They have been lucky to win a lot of close games which typically are won about half of the time. An occasional coach pulls off slightly more than half of their close games because of good management, but if a team goes, say, 8-1 in games decided by 7 points of fewer, it points to a team that's been very lucky and is significantly worse than their record. When you factor in the fact that most of their losses, they were blown out and that they played a very weak schedule and you have a team that is basically equivalent to a 6-7 or 5-8 team.

              The chances that they win both games against the Texans is miniscule.
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              • #8
                One Seed, Two Seed, Three Seed, a dollar, I'm just happy were in the playoffs so i'm gonna stand up and holler.
                I really like Cheese.

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                • #9
                  Honestly none are likely. I just hope that however the seeding fall...We get NE in the championship. That gives them a chance to slip up so we do not have to face them. That is the one team that we just dont match up well with
                  Thanx Blondie79 for the sweet Sig....Love it and I will rock it with pridesigpic

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by japfaff View Post
                    Honestly none are likely. I just hope that however the seeding fall...We get NE in the championship. That gives them a chance to slip up so we do not have to face them. That is the one team that we just dont match up well with
                    Does anyone this year? I don't like our chances if we have to face the pats...I know we got close to beating them last time but I am not so sure we can do it again. We are much improved since that game but then...so are they.
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                    • #11
                      The Colts are much, much worse than their record which they built with close wins against a weak schedule while losing big in their losses. This typically marks a team overrated by their record.

                      So, I would be surprised if they didn't lose both games against Houston.

                      I think that Minnesota has a better shot of beating Houston as well.

                      Right now I'd favor NE against SF, but SF is just about an equal match, so I can't discount the reasonable possibility of a SF win.
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                      • #12
                        I think the chances of NE losing one against SF is more likely than Houston falling off the map and losing 2 out of 3. My vote is for NE. I do think the Broncos need to focus on Baltimore, which is hard to beat at home, and just get that win. Other teams will sort themselves out, we just need to take care of the business we can control. But for the sake of the thread, go 9ers!
                        New York Football Giants GM

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                        • #13
                          Neither is likely. Voted for Hou. NE knows #2 is on the line, and they are playing like it. I don't see them losing. Hou may drop 1 to Indy, but not 2. Most likely is we're battling for #3 or #4, and it's not clear which is better for us. Right now, #4 is with Indy and Hou on the slate vs Pitt/Cincy and NE.

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                          • #14
                            I voted NE losing one, although houston losing two is in the realm of possiblilties. I'd rather NE lose one but I'll gladly take losing two as a consolation prize.
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                            • #15
                              Neither. We get the 3rd seed and play the WC at home, head over to Foxborough and lay it on Brady and his gang, head back home and finish off Ravens once and for all.

                              Call me crazy but I really want us to play Patriots in their house, just to shut everybody up. And if we fail, then so be it.
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