Crossing 50 TDs a realistic assumption?

[ManningForLife]

With all the talk of speed up high tempo offense plus the addition of Wes Welker, we have a legitimate shot.

DT/Decker/Welker with Dresden/Tamme, we have the tools to get it done. My only concern is once we get the lead by 3rd quarter, Fox will get into time killing mode. All we need is 3 TDs per game.

Call me out to think that we beat the 50 TDs mark, 16-0 and go all away.

[psychobilly]

Call me out to think that we beat the 50 TDs mark, 16-0 and go all away.

Just when I thought you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you say something like this,......and totally redeem yourself!

[ManningForLife]

Just when I thought you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you say something like this,......and totally redeem yourself!

Gee, thanks

[johntbronco]

It depends on what you mean by TDs.
Last year we had 37 passing TDS, 12 rushing TDs, 1 punt return TD, 1 kick return TD, 1 fumble TD, and 5 interception TDs in the regular season which accounts for 57 TDs. I'm assuming you are talking about offensive TDs and that would be 49.

If you are talking about only passing TD's im guessing we wont make it. The only reason is because i think our rushing attack is going to be better this year and more of our TDs will go to rushing TDs.

i'm guessing we can get 40-45 passing TDs and 14-20 rushing TDs. thats my wild guess.

[ManningForLife]

It depends on what you mean by TDs.
Last year we had 37 passing TDS, 12 rushing TDs, 1 punt return TD, 1 kick return TD, 1 fumble TD, and 5 interception TDs in the regular season which accounts for 57 TDs. I'm assuming you are talking about offensive TDs and that would be 49.

If you are talking about only passing TD's im guessing we wont make it. The only reason is because i think our rushing attack is going to be better this year and more of our TDs will go to rushing TDs.

i'm guessing we can get 40-45 passing TDs and 14-20 rushing TDs. thats my wild guess.

Yep, was referring passing TDs.

I think we have the tools to make it but to your point, the other factors and coaching would play a part against it unless we go for kill every single game like Pats.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Our running game is too good to be throwing the ball that much. I think we'll have a more balanced offense.

[champ&dreallday]

Even with an improved rushing game, it would be ridiculous to think Peyton couldn't get 50 TDs. However, we do have John Fox as a coach, which will probably take some points off the board. The X factor is Peytons health. I'm just not sure of the effects of the recovery with his neck. I'm not saying he's not recovering, I"m just not sure if increased passing will help increase his strength or weaken it. It's possible Peyton demands to stay in to help his arm strength further recover or wants to come out to save his arm strength. Either way, I think we'll have some comfortable leads in the 4th quarter.

[ManningForLife]

[QUOTE=champ&dreallday;4731988 However, we do have John Fox as a coach, which will probably take some points off the board. [/QUOTE]

My thoughts as well

[cdumler7]

In 2004 when Manning threw for 49 touchdowns he also had a running back go for 1,500 yards rushing and I think 9 touchdowns. I think the only thing that can stop Peyton from reaching those numbers again will be if John Fox decides to shut things down once we get a 2 touchdown lead or not.

[ManningForLife]

In 2004 when Manning threw for 49 touchdowns he also had a running back go for 1,500 yards rushing and I think 9 touchdowns. I think the only thing that can stop Peyton from reaching those numbers again will be if John Fox decides to shut things down once we get a 2 touchdown lead or not.

And Manning didnt play for 6 quarters in total i think.

[beastlyskronk]

I'm not sure about 50 TDs, but 5000 yards and 72% passing is very realistic. He'll definitely come close to 50

[johntbronco]

Even with an improved rushing game, it would be ridiculous to think Peyton couldn't get 50 TDs. However, we do have John Fox as a coach, which will probably take some points off the board. The X factor is Peytons health. I'm just not sure of the effects of the recovery with his neck. I'm not saying he's not recovering, I"m just not sure if increased passing will help increase his strength or weaken it. It's possible Peyton demands to stay in to help his arm strength further recover or wants to come out to save his arm strength. Either way, I think we'll have some comfortable leads in the 4th quarter.

rediculous to think we couldn't get 50 TDs?

IMO you would be asking ALOT

lets say the points are pretty close to last year except for the 50
last year
26x3 points field goals = 78pts
37x7 points passes = 259 pts
12x7 points runs = 84 pts
2 x 7 special teams pts = 14 pts
6 x 7 defensive pts = 42 pts
2 x 2 safeties = 4 pts
===========================
total for 2012 481 pts with an avg of 30.625 pts a game

with your assumption of 50 passing TDS which IMO is "rediculous" here is how it lays out assuming some of the other categories the same and others a tad more:
estimate for 2013 year:
26x3 points field goals = 78 pts
50x7 points passes = 350 pts (im adding your 13 extra pass tds here)
15 x7 points run = 105pts (im assuming the running game is slightly better add 3 tds to last year)
2 x 7 spec teams tds = 14 pts
8 x 7 defensive pts = 56 pts (im assuming the defense will be more of a BEAST and get at LEAST two more tds defensively this year)
2 x 2 safeties = 4 pts
--------------------------
total estimate 2013 605 pts with an avg of 37.8 points per game

i think its REDICULOUS that you think we will get that many points per game.

[beastlyskronk]

rediculous to think we couldn't get 50 TDs?

IMO you would be asking ALOT

lets say the points are pretty close to last year except for the 50
last year
26x3 points field goals = 78pts
37x7 points passes = 259 pts
12x7 points runs = 84 pts
2 x 7 special teams pts = 14 pts
6 x 7 defensive pts = 42 pts
2 x 2 safeties = 4 pts
===========================
total for 2012 481 pts with an avg of 30.625 pts a game

with your assumption of 50 passing TDS which IMO is "rediculous" here is how it lays out assuming some of the other categories the same and others a tad more:
estimate for 2013 year:
26x3 points field goals = 78 pts
50x7 points passes = 350 pts (im adding your 13 extra pass tds here)
15 x7 points run = 105pts (im assuming the running game is slightly better add 3 tds to last year)
2 x 7 spec teams tds = 14 pts
8 x 7 defensive pts = 56 pts (im assuming the defense will be more of a BEAST and get at LEAST two more tds defensively this year)
2 x 2 safeties = 4 pts
--------------------------
total estimate 2013 605 pts with an avg of 37.8 points per game

i think its REDICULOUS that you think we will get that many points per game.

Lets say we pass it the same amount of times as we did last year or relatively close. Manning threw it 583 times last year and had 37 TDs. That's a TD every 15.8 throws. But in his best season he threw a TD every 10 throws. He had Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley compared to our DT, Decker, and Welker. The 2004 season was extremely impressive considering he did it with 3 route runners. Our group has way more big play ability and if you were going to throw 50 TDs, it'd probably be with a group like our's. Aaron Rodgers threw 45 TDs on 502 attempts in 2011. Tom Brady had 50 on 578 (comes out a TD every 11.6 attempts). These are elite numbers and with his arm looking much better compared to last year, I think he'll have a record setting year. I also think he'll end up throwing less INTs this year without Stokley and Willis being here and Tamme getting less targets.

[Matymaddog]

rediculous to think we couldn't get 50 TDs?

IMO you would be asking ALOT

lets say the points are pretty close to last year except for the 50
last year
26x3 points field goals = 78pts
37x7 points passes = 259 pts
12x7 points runs = 84 pts
2 x 7 special teams pts = 14 pts
6 x 7 defensive pts = 42 pts
2 x 2 safeties = 4 pts
===========================
total for 2012 481 pts with an avg of 30.625 pts a game

with your assumption of 50 passing TDS which IMO is "rediculous" here is how it lays out assuming some of the other categories the same and others a tad more:
estimate for 2013 year:
26x3 points field goals = 78 pts
50x7 points passes = 350 pts (im adding your 13 extra pass tds here)
15 x7 points run = 105pts (im assuming the running game is slightly better add 3 tds to last year)
2 x 7 spec teams tds = 14 pts
8 x 7 defensive pts = 56 pts (im assuming the defense will be more of a BEAST and get at LEAST two more tds defensively this year)
2 x 2 safeties = 4 pts
--------------------------
total estimate 2013 605 pts with an avg of 37.8 points per game

i think its REDICULOUS that you think we will get that many points per game.

I'm of the opinion out special teams touchdowns will go up. Let's say we get 4 special teams touchdowns rather than 2.

Special teams: 6 x 4 = 20

I hesitate putting our defensive touchdowns at 8 as the Bears couldn't eclipse this season despite having 9 more forced fumbles, 12 more fumble recoveries, and 8 more interceptions than the Broncos did. So I'd rather keep it at 6 defensive touchdowns. I think it would be great to get that many touchdowns. Also considering less chance of forcing turnovers if our defense is beast forcing a fair amount of 3 and outs.

Defensive touchdowns: 6 x 6 = 36

Let's say we look at Matt Prater for a drop in points given if Peyton Manning is making more touchdowns, Prater is likely taking less field goal attempts and therefor taking more extra points. Last year Prater had 32 field goal attempts and made 26 of them. Let's cut that number in half to 16 field goal attempts. Praters career low is 18 so that maybe unrealistic but I think it's close enough to realistic assuming the point layout as you discussed. Praters career high in field goal percentage the year he took 18 attempts, he made 16 for 88.9%. If we have a highly efficient offense it's okay to assume that Prater makes a similar percentage due to good field position. So let's say he makes 14/16 being more seasoned and some of the best field position of his career. That's
14 x 3 = 42 points off field goals opposed to your predicted 78.

Field Goals: 3 x 14 = 42

Then let's of compensate for increased extra points. Your points plays for passes and touchdowns kind of reflected that in a way but let's break everything down with extra points separate so we came better understand the data.

Points from passing: 6 x 50 = 300 points
Points from running: 6 x 15 = 90 points
Special teams: 6 x 4 = 20
Defensive touchdowns: 6 x 6 = 36
Safeties: 2 x 2 = 4
Extra points (75 attempts): 75 x 1 = 75
Result: 300 + 90 + 75 + 36 + 20 = 525 points.

525 / 16 games = 32.8125 points per game.

Opposed to your concluded 605 total points and 37.8 points per game. The discrepancy between our data is coming from the difference in not accounting a decrease in field goal attempts in congruence with an increase in a more efficient offense pertaining to turning field goals into touchdowns. I also increased special teams touchdowns to offset our difference in predicted defensive touchdowns. If we were to say Prater takes his 32 attempts and even makes 26 of them, one more field goal than last year that would total in 81 points resulting in the data being

300 + 90 + 78 + 75 + 36 + 20 + 4 = 603 points which levels out to 37.6875 points per game.

[Matymaddog]

total in 78 points not 81