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John Fox will be the X factor

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  • #46
    Fox is conservative and will almost always go with the odds. I personally would have tried to do something with the 31s, but given the temperature's effect on Manning and the receivers and RB situation (not trusting Hillman in pass blocking), I can understand why Fox made the call to not risk a turnover in regulation. The decision led to a loss, but not directly. We had a chance to win in OT. The freakish temperature and so many plays in that game that could have gone either way (but didn't) combined to give Balt a win in a game we win 9 times out of 10. It's hard to pin it on one play call.

    To the OP's original point about Fox's conservatism affecting our SB chances - yeah, it could bite us in a critical moment, but I think success of this season hinges more on health than anything else. Would the Balt outcome be different if Moreno's still in the game? Probably. Lose a couple key players in TC, and we may never see the situation where coaching limits potential. Overall, I think our coaching staff is strong, and playing the odds will get us where we want to go provided all the other factors fall into place.

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    • #47
      Originally posted by dgobronco View Post
      Fox is conservative and will almost always go with the odds. I personally would have tried to do something with the 31s, but given the temperature's effect on Manning and the receivers and RB situation (not trusting Hillman in pass blocking), I can understand why Fox made the call to not risk a turnover in regulation. The decision led to a loss, but not directly. We had a chance to win in OT. The freakish temperature and so many plays in that game that could have gone either way (but didn't) combined to give Balt a win in a game we win 9 times out of 10. It's hard to pin it on one play call.

      To the OP's original point about Fox's conservatism affecting our SB chances - yeah, it could bite us in a critical moment, but I think success of this season hinges more on health than anything else. Would the Balt outcome be different if Moreno's still in the game? Probably. Lose a couple key players in TC, and we may never see the situation where coaching limits potential. Overall, I think our coaching staff is strong, and playing the odds will get us where we want to go provided all the other factors fall into place.
      Even if Fox in his heart of hearts knows hes going to play conservative 10 out of 10 times, why announce it? Thats a problem I have with his stance. The element of surprise is something that will never be on a John Fox coached team, but had he come out and said something like "looking back perhaps it would have been worth trying" or something similar then at least he would put that reasonable doubt into the opponent in the next situation. But he didnt....he basically said "I did it and I will do it every time"

      As for the odds, our odds were far greater of completing a couple passes then they were for giving up a pick 6, so that theory of his holds no merit to me. The NFL saw 71 ints returned for TDs out of 17,500 passes in 2012. A rate of less than 1/2 of 1%. Had they(ravens)had a TO or two then I could see the risk not worth the reward, but a INT-by the odds (like he claims to play)-would have likely netted the Ravens the ball a handful of seconds and no time to run a play and get the FG unit out. Of all times to take a chance we didnt, and in doing so has now announced that we never will as long as hes coaching. Its not about one play deciding the game its about not taking taking advantage of the few opportunities we had, this was one of them that I wish we had back.

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      • #48
        Originally posted by atwaterandstir View Post
        Even if Fox in his heart of hearts knows hes going to play conservative 10 out of 10 times, why announce it? Thats a problem I have with his stance. The element of surprise is something that will never be on a John Fox coached team, but had he come out and said something like "looking back perhaps it would have been worth trying" or something similar then at least he would put that reasonable doubt into the opponent in the next situation. But he didnt....he basically said "I did it and I will do it every time"

        As for the odds, our odds were far greater of completing a couple passes then they were for giving up a pick 6, so that theory of his holds no merit to me. The NFL saw 71 ints returned for TDs out of 17,500 passes in 2012. A rate of less than 1/2 of 1%. Had they(ravens)had a TO or two then I could see the risk not worth the reward, but a INT-by the odds (like he claims to play)-would have likely netted the Ravens the ball a handful of seconds and no time to run a play and get the FG unit out. Of all times to take a chance we didnt, and in doing so has now announced that we never will as long as hes coaching. Its not about one play deciding the game its about not taking taking advantage of the few opportunities we had, this was one of them that I wish we had back.
        Like I said, personally I would have gone for it with 31s. But Fox is conservative, and we've known that from the get go with his history in Carolina. Everyone in the league knew that before his reflection this off season. My point is just that you have to take the good with the bad and roll on. Chances are other things like staying healthy will have a bigger impact on this season than Fox. I loved that Shanny was bold, but I hated that he deluded himself that scrubs on D would work out OK. McD, well, it's hard to find anything to love there, and the play calling was even more conservative/predictable under his regime. Fox doesn't take many risks, but his teams show up every week prepared to play, the drama has stopped, we aren't the Raiders making stupid mistakes again and again, and we're a respected organization that FA's want to play for after years of sliding downhill. So on balance, I think he's been a positive and capable of coaching this talented team to a SB victory.

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        • #49
          Originally posted by dgobronco View Post
          Like I said, personally I would have gone for it with 31s. But Fox is conservative, and we've known that from the get go with his history in Carolina. Everyone in the league knew that before his reflection this off season. My point is just that you have to take the good with the bad and roll on. Chances are other things like staying healthy will have a bigger impact on this season than Fox. I loved that Shanny was bold, but I hated that he deluded himself that scrubs on D would work out OK. McD, well, it's hard to find anything to love there, and the play calling was even more conservative/predictable under his regime. Fox doesn't take many risks, but his teams show up every week prepared to play, the drama has stopped, we aren't the Raiders making stupid mistakes again and again, and we're a respected organization that FA's want to play for after years of sliding downhill. So on balance, I think he's been a positive and capable of coaching this talented team to a SB victory.
          I agree for the most part, I think he can and will coach us to a Championship.

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          • #50
            I soured quite a bit on Fox after the Baltimore game

            The 3rd and 7 especially really dissapointed me
            When you have a chance to win the game then you should take it

            Call a play action and tell Manning to fall down if the route isnt open; but to not even try was very disheartening

            We had other opportunities to score in the game, so that playcall didnt lose it for us

            But it speaks to how predictable and bland Fox is, and I question the point of bringing in Manning if we are just going to run it with the game on the line anyway

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            • #51
              Originally posted by Br0nc0Buster View Post
              I soured quite a bit on Fox after the Baltimore game

              The 3rd and 7 especially really dissapointed me
              When you have a chance to win the game then you should take it

              Call a play action and tell Manning to fall down if the route isnt open; but to not even try was very disheartening

              We had other opportunities to score in the game, so that playcall didnt lose it for us

              But it speaks to how predictable and bland Fox is, and I question the point of bringing in Manning if we are just going to run it with the game on the line anyway
              Well said.

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              • #52
                Personally, I don't know what to think. While there is evidence that Fox is too conservative, there is plenty of evidence to the contrary. Fox coached us to a 13-3 record, and in the first game against San Diego I wouldn't have classified his playcalling as conservative. I think perhaps our memories of the Tebow era have biased our thinking a bit.

                I was as frustrated as everybody else at the kneel down and am unfamiliar with the statistics to which Fox refers. However, but for a freak play we walk away from this game with a W 99 times out of 100, and nobody questions the kneeldown decision.
                Last edited by psychobilly; 05-29-2013, 07:00 AM.

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by psychobilly View Post
                  Personally, I don't know what to think. While there is evidence that Fox is too conservative, there is plenty of evidence to the contrary. Fox coached us to a 13-3 record, and in the first game against San Diego I wouldn't have classified his playcalling as conservative. I think perhaps our memories of the Tebow era have biased our thinking a bit.

                  I was as frustrated as everybody else at the kneel down and am unfamiliar with the statistics to which Fox refers. However, but for a freak play we walk away from this game with a W 99 times out of 100, and nobody questions the kneeldown decision.
                  With all due respect, Fox never had a 13-3 season before. Peyton had over 5 times. Do the math.

                  Also, we are talking only about decision making in crunch and critical times. They are the only ones which defines a coach/career and the difference between victory and defeat.

                  As discussed earlier, its not about this one game or how many different ways we lost it. Its about whether Fox did enough in his power to win the game?.

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