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  • why-passing-is-more-important-than-run

    The saying goes "To win in the NFL you need to run the ball and stop the run." This mantra has been repeated so long and so often it seems impossible to get coaches to think outside the box.

    Trying to establish the running game is a trap the Broncos need to avoid. With Peyton Manning at QB we should be bludgeoning opponents into submission with the Pass. I see to many drives stall with the running game.

    I found a statistical analysis that looked at the relative impact of pass vs run efficiency on winning percentage. http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2...he-n-f-l/?_r=0

    "At first glance it's(passing) more than three times as important than running efficiency. But that’s before we factor in interception rate, which when added on top of passing efficiency makes passing over four times more important.

    On the defensive side of the ball, we see the same general relationship. Stopping the pass is several times more important than stopping the run.
    "

    I also like the authors advice to GM's
    "If I were advising a general manager, I’d tell him to largely forget about the run. Get a running back who’s good at picking up blitzes or catching the ball. Never draft a running back in the first few rounds, and whatever you do, don’t waste precious cap space (or payroll budget) on him.

    Get a quality QB at all costs. Assess your linemen on how well they pass-block, and don’t worry as much about their run blocking. Get lots of pass rushers on defense. Got a LB that’s a great run stopper but can’t play coverage? Trade him to some sucker team that cares that they only give up 3.8 yards per carry rather than 4.2 yards per carry. That’s how you build a perennial playoff contender.
    "

    Anyone share this view?

  • #2
    Originally posted by MJCOSTEL View Post
    The saying goes "To win in the NFL you need to run the ball and stop the run." This mantra has been repeated so long and so often it seems impossible to get coaches to think outside the box.

    Trying to establish the running game is a trap the Broncos need to avoid. With Peyton Manning at QB we should be bludgeoning opponents into submission with the Pass. I see to many drives stall with the running game.

    I found a statistical analysis that looked at the relative impact of pass vs run efficiency on winning percentage. http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2...he-n-f-l/?_r=0

    "At first glance it's(passing) more than three times as important than running efficiency. But that’s before we factor in interception rate, which when added on top of passing efficiency makes passing over four times more important.

    On the defensive side of the ball, we see the same general relationship. Stopping the pass is several times more important than stopping the run.
    "

    I also like the authors advice to GM's
    "If I were advising a general manager, I’d tell him to largely forget about the run. Get a running back who’s good at picking up blitzes or catching the ball. Never draft a running back in the first few rounds, and whatever you do, don’t waste precious cap space (or payroll budget) on him.

    Get a quality QB at all costs. Assess your linemen on how well they pass-block, and don’t worry as much about their run blocking. Get lots of pass rushers on defense. Got a LB that’s a great run stopper but can’t play coverage? Trade him to some sucker team that cares that they only give up 3.8 yards per carry rather than 4.2 yards per carry. That’s how you build a perennial playoff contender.
    "

    Anyone share this view?
    ASk the bears how important stopping the run is. While you're at it ask the Chiefs when Monte Ball ran for 30+ yards in one run? And better yet ask Peyton, Tom, Drew, Aaron & Russell how they feel about the importance of a GREAT running game. Let's throw in Rivers in there for good measure. Having two good RB's now in SD has made his team better.

    Perhaps I wasn't as clear so I will make my official stance crystal....the run is just as important as the pass.

    Comment


    • #3
      There is more than one kind of pass: drop back; roll out; PAP/Boot.

      If you are into quantification, quantify how many of Peyton Manning's pass attempts are PAP. It's a lot. That's the importance of running the ball. Manning will determine whether to run or pass based on the pre-snap read of how many defenders are in the box.

      Mark Schlereth told an interesting story about Super Bowl XXXII. Gary Kubiak put Trap Pass in the game plan. At the end of the third quarter, from the +22, Kubiak called Trap Pass. It was intercepted and returned to the +15.

      When the game was over and the Broncos were boarding the bus, Schlereth told Kubiak, "The next time you put in Trap Pass, you might want to consider running Trap." Kubiak was angry, but Schlereth was right. Trap is the run play which must be established before running a play action pass from it. The Broncos didn't run Trap.

      The point was that the Broncos were a Zone Blocking team. They didn't run any angle blocked plays like Trap which use a puller. Green Bay didn't buy what Denver was selling on that play. They knew it was a pass.

      In order to run PAP, the O-Line has to sell it to the D by taking run steps. Watch Denver's play-action passes carefully. Watch the line. They do a good job of taking run steps to get the D to play run. PAP will not work unless there is a convincing rushing attack.

      Fortunately, the Broncos are focused on real football played on real football fields by real football players and not by statistical analysis.
      Last edited by samparnell; 12-04-2013, 10:14 AM.
      "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

      Comment


      • #4
        Funny that you post this, I just read this Advanced NFL Stats article about the Ravens terrible run game this season, which basically shows that the past seven Super Bowl Champs have either middling or outright weak running games --

        http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013...s-week-13.html

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Hanzo the Razor View Post
          Funny that you post this, I just read this Advanced NFL Stats article about the Ravens terrible run game this season, which basically shows that the past seven Super Bowl Champs have either middling or outright weak running games --

          http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013...s-week-13.html
          The NFL is a pass heavy league on offense. The rules have been changed to make it that way. No team is going to be run heavy (i.e., more than 50% run). Even 55% pass/45% run is considered to be a lot of running by current standards.

          The number of rushing plays isn't as important as the fact that they exist and must be defended. Watch the personnel packages defenses use and what fronts they employ depending on the offensive personnel and the situation. If all teams did was pass, defenses would look different.

          The run must be respected. PAP is a very effective tool. That the Broncos can run effectively with formations using 11 personnel is a big problem for opponents. That Denver's O-Line can block effectively without help from a FullBack or TE is a big deal.
          "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by samparnell View Post
            The point was that the Broncos were a Zone Blocking team. They didn't run any angle blocked plays like Trap which use a puller. Green Bay didn't buy what Denver was selling on that play. They knew it was a pass.
            Great point and it underlines something even more important than PAP that the run provides -- it keeps the defense guessing. If the defense always knows a pass is coming, you're going to see passing efficiency sink like a stone. That's why third and long is so hard to convert -- everyone and their mother knows the offense must pass to succeed and can play the pass outright. That's the chief advantage the offense has -- they know what the play is and the defense can only guess and react to the offense's plan.

            That said, I do think the fundamental idea that analysts are pushing absolutely has a ring of truth that's being distorted by people going to the extreme of saying the run doesn't matter at all. The pass in the modern NFL is absolutely more important than the run. This doesn't mean you can have zero run game, but it does mean that having a QB like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees is more critical for a team's success than having a RB like Adrian Peterson or Alfred Morris.

            You basically just need a running game that the defense must honor. You don't have to have Barry Sanders, you just need to be able to average 3.5 yards or more on each run play. Ideally, you want to have a run game that the defense sends in a strong safety to cover. If the defense doesn't think it needs the SS's help in stopping the run, they'll put him into coverage and that makes the passing game harder to succeed with.

            I mean, think about what all the analysts say is the way to beat Peyton Manning's Denver offense -- two high safeties and tight man coverage. That's what Belichick banked on, defending pass and giving up the run -- but they couldn't stop Denver's run and had the turnovers not occurred, that game wouldn't have even been close. (Now had the Patriots not uncharacteristically turned it over themselves, we don't know which way that game goes. But as it stood in the second half, Denver could have run the ball all day long and won if they don't turn it over.)

            If Denver can get 4 or more yards a carry, they will absolutely destroy other teams (provided they don't fumble) -- and that all starts with taking a safety out of coverage with the running game.

            Comment


            • #7
              Run the ball and stop the run USE TO BE the mantra.. but with all the rule changes geared toward helping the passing game succeed, the NFL is CLEARLY a passing league now. You can have an average (or below) running game and still do fine. Like the previous comment says, if we can get 4 yards/carry, we can't be stopped.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by bigdog1002 View Post
                Run the ball and stop the run USE TO BE the mantra.. but with all the rule changes geared toward helping the passing game succeed, the NFL is CLEARLY a passing league now. You can have an average (or below) running game and still do fine. Like the previous comment says, if we can get 4 yards/carry, we can't be stopped.
                Averaging 4 ypa is by definition running the ball so well that the run has been established. I think the Broncos would like to be as balanced as possible in order to make PAP effective.
                "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by samparnell View Post
                  Averaging 4 ypa is by definition running the ball so well that the run has been established. I think the Broncos would like to be as balanced as possible in order to make PAP effective.
                  I believe the league average is right around 4.3 yards/carry. So 4 yards/carry is very slightly below average, but we have the passing game to make up for it.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by bigdog1002 View Post
                    I believe the league average is right around 4.3 yards/carry. So 4 yards/carry is very slightly below average, but we have the passing game to make up for it.
                    League average yards per rushing attempt is currently 4.1. Broncos are at 3.9. That figure may go up.
                    "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I think it will. The Broncos clearly want to run the football and get these 'backs up to speed so they're not in the situation they were in the Baltimore playoff game, with Moreno out and no one to pass block and run the clock out.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Did Jason Garrett write that? Because he always abandons the run, part of the reason the cowboys lose so much

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Is it that or is because they must pass because their defense gives up so many points?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Hey, another article on this topic, focusing on play action --
                            PLAY-ACTION

                            It's the "third phase" of the offense, as Peyton Manning often describes it. And it was rarely more effective this season than Sunday.

                            The Broncos used play-action on their opening snap and went back to it frequently, particularly on the connections to wide receiver Eric Decker. His first touchdown, a 41-yarder, came off a playfake that the Broncos had set up with handoffs to Montee Ball on the previous two plays. That caused safety Eric Berry to briefly move toward the line of scrimmage before following tight end Joel Dreessen down the seam, which left Decker in a one-on-one matchup as he ran his post route.

                            Decker's next big gain, a 42-yard pass, was set up by a play-fake that was preceded by a run (a 5-yard carry by Ball). At the handoff, Kendrick Lewis sprinted forward, leaving the Chiefs undermanned on the back end; once Decker won his one-on-one duel with cornerback Marcus Cooper at the line of scrimmage, all Manning had to do was get the ball downfield.

                            The final deep shot to Decker, a 37-yarder, was, again, off a play-action fake. And again, it followed at least one handoff; Ball had carried three times for 24 yards on the previous three snaps. This time, it wasn't so much the playfake itself as the Chiefs' slow reaction to Decker cutting across the field and heading for the corner on a flag route; he used a bump from Brandon Flowers to get separation, and then got to the end zone before Quintin Demps arrived. By this point, the Chiefs are on their heels.

                            But the playaction doesn't always work, as Manning noted.

                            "(Berry) had a blitz on a play-action pass early in the game where we had to throw it away," Manning said. "That kind of makes you not as crazy about doing play-action if he’s going to be able to get free and had a couple run-throughs on some run plays."

                            Three things happened on that play, which forced the Broncos into their first third down of the game during their opening offensive series.

                            First, Berry sold out. When Manning went into his fake, Berry didn't turn away. Of course, unlike on Manning's actual handoff to Knowshon Moreno on the previous play, none of the offensive linemen moved upfield. A play earlier, left tackle Chris Clark had begun working his way beyond the line of scrimmage; when Manning play-faked, the line held its position prior to the faked handoff.

                            Second, the Broncos were keying on Tyson Jackson, who lined up at right defensive end. Both Chris Clark and Zane Beadles engaged Jackson, and by the time Beadles peeled off him and tried to stop Berry, it was too late.

                            Third, there was no hesitation from the other defensive backs off the snap; they focused on the pass potential all the way. Thus, Manning had no open options; an incompletion was making the best of a busted play.

                            But this was the exception to the rule, and showed that the play-action isn't perfect. It is to the Broncos' credit that they stuck with it in spite of Berry's threat, and in doing so helped keep the Chiefs' defense off-balance, which set up the clumps of yardage picked up on the ground and in the air.

                            http://prod.www.broncos.clubs.nfl.co...f-f16ad3f17cde

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Yes and No.

                              Its not like he was years ago, but its hard to win being one dimensional or you have teams teeing off on your QB when you gotta pass 50+ times a game.

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