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AFC picture, where it stands, what's left:

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  • AFC picture, where it stands, what's left:

    New England (7-2) Own tiebreaker vs. Denver.
    home: Detroit, Miami, Buffalo
    road: Indianapolis, Green Bay, San Diego, NYJ
    They will win all of their home games, could lose 2 or maybe even 3 on the road. Worst case is probably about 12-4. (11-5 would be a GIFT for us)

    Denver (6-2)
    home: Miami, Buffalo, Oakland
    road: Oakland, St.Louis, KC, SD, Cincinnati
    Denver MUST win all the home games, and win minimally 3 on the road, for a final of 12-4. That would win the divison, but probably not get the #1 seed, unless the Pats lose 3 more. Really need a 13-3 final record, which would likely clinch #1, certainly #2 seed.

    Indianapolis (6-3) - Denver owns tiebreaker vs. Colts
    home: NE, Jax, Washington, Houston
    road: Cleveland, Dallas, Tennessee
    They could run the table. The two tough games are NE, and at Dallas (if Romo plays).
    We need them to beat NE, if they do, the Colts could well end up 13-3, which means Denver can afford to lose only 1 more game to retain the top seed. At Dallas could be a loss, we'll see. Worst case for the Colts is 11-5.

    Cincinnati (5-2-1) - Denver plays them late December.....
    home: Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Denver
    road: New Orleans, Houston, TB, Cleveland, Pittsburgh
    Tough schedule. They will probably split with Pitt, and lose at Saints. If Denver beats them,it's likely irrelevant for seeding, they would be fighting for a WC anyaway. I seed something like 10-5-1 best case for the Bengals.

    Pittsburgh (6-3) - No game with Denver, tiebreaker would be based on Conference record.
    home: New Orleans, KC, Cincinnati
    road: NYJ, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Atlanta
    Saints at home is much easier, They will likely win all 3 home games. We may need them to beat the Chiefs? Only tough road game is at Cinci. Would they blow any of the other road games? I see 12-4, very likely. Probably the division Champ. They are currently with two conference losses.

    Kansas City (5-3) - Tiebreaker is currently a work in progress for division.
    home: Seattle, Denver, Oakland, SD
    road: Buffalo, Oakland, Arizona, Pittsburgh
    Tough schedule. I see at least 2 road losses, and easliy 1 or 2 home losses. 10-6 absolute best case.

    San Diego (5-4) - team in trouble.
    home: Oakland, St. Louis, NE, Denver
    road: Baltimore, SF, KC
    They are all but dead, and that's a tough schedule. They will likley lose all 3 road games. We need them to step up at home and beat the Patriots. Can they? I see 8-8.

    Baltimore (5-4) - No game with Denver this year
    home: Tennessee, SD, Jax, Cleveland
    road: New Orleans, Miami, Houston
    They may well, win all 4 home games, probably will. At NO and Miami are tough. 10-6?

    Miami (5-3) - Plays at Denver in a few weeks
    home: Buffalo, Baltimore, Minnesota, NYJ
    road: Detroit, Denver, NYJ, NE
    Maybe 3-1 at home? They'll likely lose at least 2 on the raod. 10-6, best case.


    Cleveland, Houston and Buffalo? No need to bother.

  • #2
    its going to be tough to get HF now our road schedule is really tough i'll be surprised if we go 13-3 which as you pointed out we may need to do...but a lot football left you never know how it'll shake out

    Comment


    • #3
      Road - KC, SD, Cincinnati

      If we go 2-1 we get homefield

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      • #4
        I don't want 13-3 . Has been a bad number to us last 2 seasons

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        • #5
          Interesting article from ESPN, from which I quote:

          In the table to the right are the initial Authentic Games standings for 2014 -- this will be a running item until the end of the regular season. Note I consider total victories more important than won-loss percentage -- for instance, Denver's 4-2 is better than New England's 2-0, though the latter is superior if one thinks in percentage terms. Again there's no super-sophisticated reasoning underlying this assumption, just a feeling that winning lots of big games while also losing a few is better than playing a soft schedule and not being tested often.

          Authentic Games Standings

          These standings are through Nov. 4.
          Arizona 4-1
          Denver 4-2
          *Detroit 2-0
          *New England 2-0
          Pittsburgh 2-1
          *Cincinnati 2-2
          *Dallas 2-2
          *Santa Clara 2-2
          *Seattle 2-2
          Indianapolis 2-3
          *New Orleans 1-2
          *Philadelphia 1-2
          San Diego 1-3
          Baltimore 1-4
          Green Bay 0-3
          * indicates tie

          At the halfway point of the season, my Authentic Games metric predicts a Super Bowl of Denver versus Arizona. Note the Broncos and Cardinals not only have the most authentic wins but also they've participated in the most big games, which is almost as important. By that logic, keep your eye on Indianapolis, which has also been in many big games already. I called the Super Bowl early last year -- the pressure's on!

          Comment


          • #6
            I think NE loses one of @ GB/IND and @NYJ in week 17 (just a feeling I have) finishing 12-4, and I do think we finish 13-3 losing @ KC.

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            • #7
              I think New England's schedule is being drastically overrated by some people.

              Let's take Green Bay, for an example. Green Bay is an Aaron Rodgers lead team that will be a nightmare for a lot of teams, especially at home, which is why they're considered tough.

              But against New England? Consider the match up.

              Green Bay's paper thin defense that can't stop anything will be going against Brady to Gronk, Brady to Edelman, Brady to Lafell, etc etc etc.

              And Rodgers will be throwing against the best secondary in the National Football league.

              Most teams have to be terrified of Rodgers offense, but does anyone really think that Rodgers is going to be able to move the ball against Browner, Revis, McCourty, like Brady is going to move the ball against them?

              I just don't see how the Packers can hope to keep pace with New England in a QB shoot out.

              The NFL is a match up league and the Patriots are an awful match up for Green Bay

              Luck is another guy who a lot of teams should fear, but against Belichick, he's underwhelmed, throwing four interceptions a game and losing every single encounter rather decisively.

              Every year is different, but Luck hasn't once threatened NE in any game they've played so far.

              The only potential loss I see, realistically, is against a healthy Chargers team in their house.

              Time will tell, but I think the Patriots match up to its "tough schedule" pretty favorably.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by RobertR View Post
                Interesting article from ESPN, from which I quote:
                i get it (the article) but i don't. for instance, i would take green bay over arizona where ever it was played. i don't think the article is saying anything people haven't already said or believe, the best point being a soft schedule and rarely or never getting tested until it counts.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by LikeABoss View Post
                  I think New England's schedule is being drastically overrated by some people.

                  Let's take Green Bay, for an example. Green Bay is an Aaron Rodgers lead team that will be a nightmare for a lot of teams, especially at home, which is why they're considered tough.

                  But against New England? Consider the match up.

                  Green Bay's paper thin defense that can't stop anything will be going against Brady to Gronk, Brady to Edelman, Brady to Lafell, etc etc etc.

                  And Rodgers will be throwing against the best secondary in the National Football league.

                  Most teams have to be terrified of Rodgers offense, but does anyone really think that Rodgers is going to be able to move the ball against Browner, Revis, McCourty, like Brady is going to move the ball against them?

                  I just don't see how the Packers can hope to keep pace with New England in a QB shoot out.

                  The NFL is a match up league and the Patriots are an awful match up for Green Bay

                  Luck is another guy who a lot of teams should fear, but against Belichick, he's underwhelmed, throwing four interceptions a game and losing every single encounter rather decisively.

                  Every year is different, but Luck hasn't once threatened NE in any game they've played so far.

                  The only potential loss I see, realistically, is against a healthy Chargers team in their house.

                  Time will tell, but I think the Patriots match up to its "tough schedule" pretty favorably.
                  Manning moved the ball against NE's secondary.

                  Packers weakness in their defense is the run defense.

                  They don't have anyone to stop Gronk.

                  But they have good CB's, Shields and Tramon, Hayward, House.

                  Again a lot different on the road, than at NE where they never lose, but I guess we will see.

                  I do think it's funny you think at SD is harder than at GB/Indy, not saying they cant win those games, but just interesting.

                  Luck has struggled vs them in FOXBORO, yet again, but I guess you don't think road games are much different than home games.

                  Regarding best secondary in the league, Seattle still holds that crown because of their two monster safeties.

                  I wouldn't think facing Rodgers, Rivers, Luck on the road is easy but hey we're all entited to our opinions.
                  Last edited by ERoyal248; 11-04-2014, 03:07 PM.

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                  • #10
                    We are not losing any more games and NE will. We will be 14-2 number 1 seed and that is final
                    My Boss is a Jewish Carpenter

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                    • #11
                      The lions can beat the pats if Calvin Johnson is healthy. With golden Tate playing like he is, you can't put browner on him and expect good things

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post
                        The lions can beat the pats if Calvin Johnson is healthy. With golden Tate playing like he is, you can't put browner on him and expect good things
                        I'm interested in who they put on Calvin.

                        Tate is way too quick for Browner.

                        That game would depend on Detroit's DL, mainly interior (Suh)

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post
                          The lions can beat the pats if Calvin Johnson is healthy. With golden Tate playing like he is, you can't put browner on him and expect good things
                          Sorry, no. This is the Lions we are talking about. My local joke of a franchise for 50 years and counting.
                          No way they win at New England.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by TheArtofManning View Post
                            New England (7-2) Own tiebreaker vs. Denver.
                            home: Detroit, Miami, Buffalo
                            road: Indianapolis, Green Bay, San Diego, NYJ
                            They will win all of their home games, could lose 2 or maybe even 3 on the road. Worst case is probably about 12-4. (11-5 would be a GIFT for us)

                            Denver (6-2)
                            home: Miami, Buffalo, Oakland
                            road: Oakland, St.Louis, KC, SD, Cincinnati
                            Denver MUST win all the home games, and win minimally 3 on the road, for a final of 12-4. That would win the divison, but probably not get the #1 seed, unless the Pats lose 3 more. Really need a 13-3 final record, which would likely clinch #1, certainly #2 seed.

                            Indianapolis (6-3) - Denver owns tiebreaker vs. Colts
                            home: NE, Jax, Washington, Houston
                            road: Cleveland, Dallas, Tennessee
                            They could run the table. The two tough games are NE, and at Dallas (if Romo plays).
                            We need them to beat NE, if they do, the Colts could well end up 13-3, which means Denver can afford to lose only 1 more game to retain the top seed. At Dallas could be a loss, we'll see. Worst case for the Colts is 11-5.

                            Cincinnati (5-2-1) - Denver plays them late December.....
                            home: Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Denver
                            road: New Orleans, Houston, TB, Cleveland, Pittsburgh
                            Tough schedule. They will probably split with Pitt, and lose at Saints. If Denver beats them,it's likely irrelevant for seeding, they would be fighting for a WC anyaway. I seed something like 10-5-1 best case for the Bengals.

                            Pittsburgh (6-3) - No game with Denver, tiebreaker would be based on Conference record.
                            home: New Orleans, KC, Cincinnati
                            road: NYJ, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Atlanta
                            Saints at home is much easier, They will likely win all 3 home games. We may need them to beat the Chiefs? Only tough road game is at Cinci. Would they blow any of the other road games? I see 12-4, very likely. Probably the division Champ. They are currently with two conference losses.


                            Kansas City (5-3) - Tiebreaker is currently a work in progress for division.
                            home: Seattle, Denver, Oakland, SD
                            road: Buffalo, Oakland, Arizona, Pittsburgh
                            Tough schedule. I see at least 2 road losses, and easliy 1 or 2 home losses. 10-6 absolute best case.

                            San Diego (5-4) - team in trouble.
                            home: Oakland, St. Louis, NE, Denver
                            road: Baltimore, SF, KC
                            They are all but dead, and that's a tough schedule. They will likley lose all 3 road games. We need them to step up at home and beat the Patriots. Can they? I see 8-8.

                            Baltimore (5-4) - No game with Denver this year
                            home: Tennessee, SD, Jax, Cleveland
                            road: New Orleans, Miami, Houston
                            They may well, win all 4 home games, probably will. At NO and Miami are tough. 10-6?

                            Miami (5-3) - Plays at Denver in a few weeks
                            home: Buffalo, Baltimore, Minnesota, NYJ
                            road: Detroit, Denver, NYJ, NE
                            Maybe 3-1 at home? They'll likely lose at least 2 on the raod. 10-6, best case.


                            Cleveland, Houston and Buffalo? No need to bother.
                            They make me curious. I THINK I know who the others "are" so to speak. But is Pitt for real? I dunno? I think they are riding a hot streak and will cool off, but ive been wrong before. I guess time will tell.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by TheArtofManning View Post
                              Sorry, no. This is the Lions we are talking about. My local joke of a franchise for 50 years and counting.
                              No way they win at New England.
                              A healthy Calvin Johnson gives them a chance in any game especially with a legit wr opposite of him in golden Tate. The lions dline is tremendous and can get pressure by themselves. They have the players to do it.

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