No announcement yet.

To Be Or Not To Be Conservative

  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    @Conner-does it really so often lead to losses? Some fans seem to make it seem like teams often blow leads due to being too conservative on offense, but it doesn't seem to be true.

    Think about it, we're hearing criticisms about Denver's offense being too conservative with a lead, how many games have they lost when once leading by 2 scores in the Manning era? It's happened one time, and in that game, no drive was ended for DEN due to a long down and distance from running it, or a failed 3rd down run during the time it took NE to take a 28-24 lead, after once trailing 24-0, so it doesn't make sense to say that game was lost due to conservative play calling IMO.

    It reminds me of Atlanta fans who seemed to often complain about their offense being too conservative when they had a lead in the 08-10 days, when they were more of a clock control type team. Guess how many games they lost when once leading by 10? Zero. It would seem playing 'not to lose' often was successful in making them not lose. They're more of a pass happy offense now since 2012, in that span, they lead the league in games lost after once holding a 2 score lead.

    I really don't see much of a pattern of more aggressive offenses doing a better job of keeping leads, in fact it seems more like the opposite.

    In truth though, it seems defense plays a bigger role in preserving leads than offensive strategy. Whether a team's offense is conservative or aggressive, teams with top defenses rarely lose games when they get a 2 score lead, and teams with bad defenses seem more prone to blowing leads.


    • #32
      I'm on the side of those who think as follows:
      - Go with what got you to the dance in the first place.....if you're a passing team, with multiple receiving weapons, you pass more than run. We are not a running team, regardless of what Hillman did a while back.
      - Play to win each quarter
      - Stay a bit unpredictable via new wrinkles here and there.....players like Sanders have multiple uses.
      - However, in the 4th Q, at some point when you have a sufficient lead (more than 2 TDs), use the clock. Anything less and they can catch up on two successive drives. And if it's a Brady type, we're talking only a few minutes on the clock.
      - Of course, as the clock winds down, run or attempt short, safe passes, all in bounds of course. I do not have a perfect formula, but as the game nears end, it's important to have at least a 2 score lead, to ensure they have to not only stop you, but garner a kickoff recovery to have any hope
      - Do not make it obvious that you are going to run out the clock (until very late in the game), because Ds home in. Mix it up a wee bit, just to keep them off guard.
      - IF your run game is working, running is a good thing, at any time of the game
      - Again, for the most part, go with got you to the dance, or where you have better match ups!


      • #33
        Originally posted by hockey878 View Post
        Too many first down runs early in games. They get predictable. Come out get the ball moving, get the drive going and get the D off balance. Then start running. Its what we did vs a very good Arizona defense and it worked.

        Coming out and trying to be a power run team will not work with our personnel. We have been very stubborn about this. I'm not saying we can't/shouldn't run. Im saying we need to use the passing game to open up the run. Which Fox and Gase seem very reluctant to do.
        I think this is pretty spot on, it's more about predictability and stubbornness than being conservative.

        It's annoying that we play away from our strengths so much. We play so much zone when we have all man cover corners who excel at tight coverage. Yet, when we do go man to man we often play off coverage. I understand you can't play man every down and I will admit I have no clue of what percentage of our plays are in zone. It doesn't pass the sight test though, and I know many agree.

        As far as being conservative goes, with our personnel I would say playing these "soft" zones and three man rushes would qualify. Also, when I see Von or demarcus dropping into coverage on third and long it makes me happy I am not John Elway. I would tell fox on the spot that either he takes over play calling on defense or he and jdr are goners.
        Anonymity is cowardice, and cowards are not known for their wisdom.