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What's the earliest we could reasonably release DT?

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  • What's the earliest we could reasonably release DT?

    I know a lot of people are down on him for his sub-par regular season and awful post season. This thread isn't meant to rehash any of that, just to see where we are with him in terms of the cap. It seems we obviously can't trade or cut him in 2016 due to the enormous cap hit. Likewise in 2017. According to overthecap.com, if we cut cut him after 6-1-18, the dead money would only be about 3.5 million for 2018 and 3.5 million for 2019. Meanwhile, the cap savings for those two years would be 8.5 million and 14 million, respectively. Anyway, hopefully some of you guys will chime in on this.

  • #2
    DT will be fine over the long run so by the time it might look like it is reasonable to "release" him financially it will not be reasonable to release him performance wise. Also by that time his salary won't be as "elite" as it seems now. DT had a solid regular season, we are somewhat spoiled to expect anything substantially better especially considering the QB situation along with the OL troubles. I will bet he catches more than 100 passes again next season with at least 10 TDs and over 1400 yards regardless of who the QB is. Our offense will likely be more consistent overall next season and he will be a solid contributor.

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    • #3
      As much as he wasn't worth the money this year, he is not a player I want to release or let go. Everyone wanted to trade Von away after his incidents but look at him now. i agree with the post above that he will have a monster year next year.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Murph2432 View Post
        As much as he wasn't worth the money this year, he is not a player I want to release or let go. Everyone wanted to trade Von away after his incidents but look at him now. i agree with the post above that he will have a monster year next year.
        I agree with Murph.
        *2011 BCMB Locker Room Division I League Champion*
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        • #5
          To answer the OP, probably after the 2017 season...will we, no way in hell do we just release him.
          Ravens GM 2016 - Ravens are looking to trade down 4-8 spots

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          • #6
            Originally posted by brianmcfarlane View Post
            I will bet he catches more than 100 passes again next season with at least 10 TDs and over 1400 yards regardless of who the QB is. Our offense will likely be more consistent overall next season and he will be a solid contributor.
            Yeah, your projections could well be met by DT... but at what cost to sustaining drives?

            What stands out to me is the ridiculously high number of targets he gets... especially compared to the relatively low completion %.

            Last year, he was targeted 177 times and caught 105 balls... for a 59% completion percentage. Additionally, he is credited with 9 drops last year. That's sub par for what he is being paid.

            By comparison, Doug Baldwin caught 78 passes on 104 targets... for a completion percentage of 75%.

            DT is very talented but without a QB that can throw the ball accurately and efficiently, he's not worth what he is being paid.

            jmo
            "Mike Harden, meet Steve Largent." KA-BOOM!!

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            • #7
              DT will be back to his old self next season now that he's had this year to deal with his mom situation.

              Also Brock and the offense, with hopefully a fully healthy o-line, will have a full off-season learning Kubiak's full and un-diluted system.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by onanygivensunda View Post
                Yeah, your projections could well be met by DT... but at what cost to sustaining drives?

                What stands out to me is the ridiculously high number of targets he gets... especially compared to the relatively low completion %.

                Last year, he was targeted 177 times and caught 105 balls... for a 59% completion percentage. Additionally, he is credited with 9 drops last year. That's sub par for what he is being paid.

                By comparison, Doug Baldwin caught 78 passes on 104 targets... for a completion percentage of 75%.

                DT is very talented but without a QB that can throw the ball accurately and efficiently, he's not worth what he is being paid.

                jmo
                Well, it didn't get better with either QB, who each had a higher completion % than he had a catch ratio. When the offensive line is bad, the QB is forced off of his timing, and the receivers aren't always in their spot by the time the ball comes out.

                No excuse for the drops, though.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by onanygivensunda View Post
                  Yeah, your projections could well be met by DT... but at what cost to sustaining drives?

                  What stands out to me is the ridiculously high number of targets he gets... especially compared to the relatively low completion %.

                  Last year, he was targeted 177 times and caught 105 balls... for a 59% completion percentage. Additionally, he is credited with 9 drops last year. That's sub par for what he is being paid.

                  By comparison, Doug Baldwin caught 78 passes on 104 targets... for a completion percentage of 75%.

                  DT is very talented but without a QB that can throw the ball accurately and efficiently, he's not worth what he is being paid.

                  jmo
                  Baldwin isn't a very good comparison since he isn't targeted near as often as DT. Of the top 5 targeted WRs - which includes DT - he doesn't have the lowest completion %, at 59% he is just slightly below average for a WR targeted as much as he is. This year he may be a little overpaid, Dez must be waaay overpaid, Mike Wallace isn't too far behind them in salary and he caught how many balls this year? Baldwin is a very good value now and he also had a very good QB throwing to him all season... I wonder what his contract demands will be when he is up for a new one?
                  I do think WRs in general are overrated/paid in regards to their value in wins and championship but right now that is the market but Seattle and NE do very well without paying high dollars to WRs ... the Panthers won a lot of games without a marquee WR. The Broncos have no choice but to see through DT's contract for at least 2 more years and as I stated by that time he will not be so overpaid.
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                  • #10
                    It would cost far more to release him in the next few years. Wed be better off trading him for next to nothing if we wanted him off the books that bad...

                    We could only hope that he elevates his play or takes a pay cut by his own accord which wont happen.
                    Last edited by Sam_Z; 02-13-2016, 11:58 AM.

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                    • #11
                      It's definitely the era of down on DT mode.

                      You will get hit with HUGE dead money hits if you cut DT

                      if you cut him in 2016, the dead money hit cost = $34,300,000
                      if you cut him in 2017, the dead money hit cost = $19,100,000
                      if you cut him in 2018, the dead money hit cost = $7,066,000
                      if you cut him in 2019, the dead money hit cost = $3,533,334

                      Lets just let him prove he can contribute this year. He had over 1300 yards in the regular season which is good considering our diminished offensive capability this year. He just needs to adjust and work on drops and show up a little more in the playoffs.

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                      • #12
                        AJ Green gets 15M average per year, he had less yards and catches than DT - 86 catches 1297 yards - almost the same in yards, his average per catch was higher. TY Hilton gets 13M per year, I would say that is in the same range as DT salary wise, he had a good yard per catch but not near the catches (69) or yards 1124 and that was considered a good year.
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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by brianmcfarlane View Post
                          AJ Green gets 15M average per year, he had less yards and catches than DT - 86 catches 1297 yards - almost the same in yards, his average per catch was higher. TY Hilton gets 13M per year, I would say that is in the same range as DT salary wise, he had a good yard per catch but not near the catches (69) or yards 1124 and that was considered a good year.
                          Good comparisons not to mention AJ Green/Bengals had a much better O line, consistent run game and Dalton now a veteran. TY Hilton/Colts O line not as good however Luck is now a veteran. By comparison Broncos changed offense with more emphasis on the run. Manning struggled with injuries and Brock was getting his first starts. Sanders also a big factor.

                          DT had his share of drops and did not always come back to the ball hard enough. I'm optimistic he can step up again.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by johntbronco View Post
                            It's definitely the era of down on DT mode.

                            You will get hit with HUGE dead money hits if you cut DT

                            if you cut him in 2016, the dead money hit cost = $34,300,000
                            if you cut him in 2017, the dead money hit cost = $19,100,000
                            if you cut him in 2018, the dead money hit cost = $7,066,000
                            if you cut him in 2019, the dead money hit cost = $3,533,334

                            Lets just let him prove he can contribute this year. He had over 1300 yards in the regular season which is good considering our diminished offensive capability this year. He just needs to adjust and work on drops and show up a little more in the playoffs.
                            Seems like every time I see posts about the cap hit cutting DT the numbers are different. Leaves me wondering which one is accurate.

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                            • #15
                              Hey all, just curious and I can't run numbers since I'm not at my computer. I'd really love to see DT's stats separated into categories like week 1 thru before NE1 & week NE1-Superbowl. Doing just postseason separately would be a nice bonus 3rd category.

                              I think DT's numbers for the year are a solid WR output by any standard. However, I really think he had a Manning 2014 type meltdown at the halfway mark. I'm just not sure if that's when I got emotionally fed up with him or if the numbers really support that.

                              CP if anybody feels like putting it together.

                              Oh and before I forget... GO BRONCOS! Super Bowl 50 Champs!!!! This one's for Pat! (and Peyton and Demarcus)

                              Edit: Forgot to mention the stats of interest are normal target/catch/yds/tds, but especially drops.
                              Last edited by imahardkase; 02-13-2016, 12:44 PM.

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