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What's the earliest we could reasonably release DT?

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  • Peerless
    replied
    This thread is pretty ridiculous.

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  • Fantaztic7
    replied
    Originally posted by DenverBlood View Post
    I watched the NFL replay today of the Chiefs game at Arrowhead in week 3.

    One thing that stood out to me was his play was much better at that point in the year. Routes were crisper and he was catching balls in traffic.

    People only remember the td catch by sanders to tie the game. But DT did all the work that drive with three catches for nearly 50 yards.

    And I remember the week before he snagged a ball on a jump over a defender that would've had an easy pick. Then he back pedaled for a TD.

    I have two points to make.

    1. He made tons of plays this year that lead me to believe he can still be the dominant receiver every
    You make a great point. Your observation balances the issues he had in the New England game - and even then he made a great play after 12 drops. There was another game late in the season - Bengals - when he made a one handed snag for a 1st down and he was held by the DB.

    If we take a position that he was awful we can find the plays to fit the narrative. If we want to make him top level we can find the plays.

    The season was still good with room to be better.

    Optimistic he can play at a high level next season. 2915 in the past and all is GREAT! Broncos SB50 Champions!!!
    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 02-14-2016, 05:35 PM.

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  • Fantaztic7
    replied
    Originally posted by flosstein View Post
    Sorry, I was agreeing with your post, but somehow I cut that part off.
    No worry at all

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  • DenverBlood
    replied
    I watched the NFL replay today of the Chiefs game at Arrowhead in week 3.

    One thing that stood out to me was his play was much better at that point in the year. Routes were crisper and he was catching balls in traffic.

    People only remember the td catch by sanders to tie the game. But DT did all the work that drive with three catches for nearly 50 yards.

    And I remember the week before he snagged a ball on a jump over a defender that would've had an easy pick. Then he back pedaled for a TD.

    I have two points to make.

    1. He made tons of plays this year that lead me to believe he can still be the dominant receiver everyone wants.

    2. When he started really performing poorly to me correlates with when the rest of the offense really went in the tank.


    I've tried to ignore comments about it but his struggles could correlate to when his mom finally came back into the picture. Which if so I that is something that can easily go away over time.
    Last edited by DenverBlood; 02-14-2016, 05:26 PM.

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  • flosstein
    replied
    Originally posted by osfantaztic View Post
    I'm not one calling to cut or trade him.

    The issue is his perfoemance relative to the contract. An elite contract requires elite play. Take aside the struggles on offense it's as simple as the game vs New England. He dropped what, 12 passes in a row? He held out of drills to get a contract paid as a Top 3 WR - backup your contract. I'll take 8-9 for 13 in that game but not 1-13.

    Nobody is perfect but you don't give up on routes and drop 12 "catchable" balls when you have his contract.

    As far as Sanders his contract is no where near DT. He's supposed to be the #2 and he plays by far like the #1.

    The overall yards don't tell the full story for DT. He dropped passes many times that killed drives - easy passes.

    I think we can be reasonable about DT. His play was not worthy of his contract nor was he terrible.

    So often we take ridgid positions and the truth sits in the middle.
    Sorry, I was agreeing with your post, but somehow I cut that part off.

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  • Fantaztic7
    replied
    Originally posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    The good news (although it's not for you) is you don't have to choose, they're both under contract and both will be Broncos in 2016.
    Yes it's really a lot of to do about nothing. It's fair for people to be disappointed in DT not having an "elite" season. He still had a solid season overall and just needs to take it up another level. I'm optimistic for the offense and DT.

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  • Butler By'Note
    replied
    Originally posted by paycheckeffort View Post
    If I had to choose, I'd take sanders over DT without giving it a second thought.
    The good news (although it's not for you) is you don't have to choose, they're both under contract and both will be Broncos in 2016.

    Leave a comment:


  • Butler By'Note
    replied
    There's no chance he gets cut, people are making it seem like it's a definite possibility, when the fact is it's not. What we could see is the majority of his salary in 2016 (which is guaranteed) switched over to signing bonus, that will lower his cap number this year and will give the Broncos more room to retain players. That's likely, the chance of them cutting Thomas is very very unlikely, so if you're 100% for it, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

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  • Fantaztic7
    replied
    Originally posted by flosstein View Post
    Personally I think the negative silly talk about his play is waaaaaaaayyyyy over the top. Did he have a stellar year? No, but who on the offense did? Even the beloved Sanders' production was down by the same amount. They were all 5-6 TD's, 150-200 yards, and 2-3 drops off their usual production. SO by that token, should we be looking to dump or trade ES also???????
    I'm not one calling to cut or trade him.

    The issue is his perfoemance relative to the contract. An elite contract requires elite play. Take aside the struggles on offense it's as simple as the game vs New England. He dropped what, 12 passes in a row? He held out of drills to get a contract paid as a Top 3 WR - backup your contract. I'll take 8-9 for 13 in that game but not 1-13.

    Nobody is perfect but you don't give up on routes and drop 12 "catchable" balls when you have his contract.

    As far as Sanders his contract is no where near DT. He's supposed to be the #2 and he plays by far like the #1.

    The overall yards don't tell the full story for DT. He dropped passes many times that killed drives - easy passes.

    I think we can be reasonable about DT. His play was not worthy of his contract nor was he terrible.

    So often we take ridgid positions and the truth sits in the middle.
    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 02-14-2016, 04:51 PM.

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  • flosstein
    replied
    Originally posted by osfantaztic View Post
    One thing left out of the mix were the deep routes, not that there were a lot. DT had several where he was 2 steps past DBs - Manning and Oz were off target. I'm not saying they should be perfect but DT wasn't always the issue. If you add a few of those he could have easily been at 1500-1600 yards.
    Personally I think the negative silly talk about his play is waaaaaaaayyyyy over the top. Did he have a stellar year? No, but who on the offense did? Even the beloved Sanders' production was down by the same amount. They were all 5-6 TD's, 150-200 yards, and 2-3 drops off their usual production. SO by that token, should we be looking to dump or trade ES also???????

    Leave a comment:


  • uknflfan
    replied
    Originally posted by paycheckeffort View Post
    That 34.3 did seem too high- not sure why they calculate it that way. If the 12.5M doesn't count, then a cut after June 1 is actually 11.2M instead of 23.7M right? What about the dead money trade numbers for 2016 & 2017?
    A post June 1 cut would incur a dead money hit of $15.2M for 2016. The remaining portion of the bonus proration ($6.6M) would be dead money in 2017.

    In 2017, DT's cap number is $12.03M. If we cut him early enough, we should only incur a dead money hit of $6.6M (the signing bonus proration). However, his base salary of $8.5M will vest to fully guaranteed if he is not released by a certain date. Also, there is the issue of his option bonus. I am not sure of when the deadline for the Broncos to exercise the option is, but obviously they would need to release him before this date.

    In 2018, DT's cap number is again $12.03M. By this time, I believe the option bonus will have been exercised, and so to release him will cost $7.06M in dead money. If he is a post June 1 cut, that number would be split, with half counting against 2018 and half against 2019.

    In 2019, DT's cap number is $17.53M. The dead money hit for releasing him would be $3.53M.

    One important thing to remember is that if the Broncos choose not to pick up DT's option, then his contract will void (they will not have to release him). In that case, any contract DT signs would count for the Broncos compensatory pick allocation.

    Overall, I can't paint a completely clear picture unless I know the date that the option must be exercised by. However, I do think it is pretty likely that DT stays on the roster until 2019. Mainly because his cap numbers are relatively low in both 2017 and 2018. As long as he is still playing at a high level, he will likely be regarded as a bargain at that price. If indeed he is still on the roster in 2019, I would expect either a release or a pay cut.
    Last edited by uknflfan; 02-14-2016, 10:07 AM.

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  • paycheckeffort
    replied
    Originally posted by uknflfan View Post
    Actually, in this case I think the 'cut/trade' menu on the OTC page is confusing, for a couple of reasons.

    Firstly, it regards DT's 2017 base salary of $8.5M as being fully guaranteed, when in fact this is an injury guarantee only. It will vest to fully guaranteed in 2017; so we would not incur that dead money hit if we were to cut him now.

    Secondly, it regards the $4M option bonus as dead money, but that option has not yet been picked up and so would not count as dead money. I'm not sure of the date for that option bonus, but I believe it needs to be picked up some time in 2017, at which point the $4M will be prorated over the final 3 years of the contract, on top of the initial signing bonus proration.

    So, considering all of this, I believe the dead money hit if we were to release DT today would be $21.8M. That comprises of his fully guaranteed 2016 base salary ($13M) and the rest of his initial signing bonus proration ($8.8M).

    That 34.3 did seem too high- not sure why they calculate it that way. If the 12.5M doesn't count, then a cut after June 1 is actually 11.2M instead of 23.7M right? What about the dead money trade numbers for 2016 & 2017?

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  • Fantaztic7
    replied
    Back to the OP's question - from all the analysis thus far seems 2017 would be the earliest and realistically 2018.

    Whether you are pro DT or want him gone - no upside to releasing him.

    If someone can make a case for what you gain by releasing him then have at it.

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  • uknflfan
    replied
    Originally posted by johntbronco View Post
    I got my numbers directly from overthecap.com which is accurate

    http://overthecap.com/player/demaryius-thomas/17
    Actually, in this case I think the 'cut/trade' menu on the OTC page is confusing, for a couple of reasons.

    Firstly, it regards DT's 2017 base salary of $8.5M as being fully guaranteed, when in fact this is an injury guarantee only. It will vest to fully guaranteed in 2017; so we would not incur that dead money hit if we were to cut him now.

    Secondly, it regards the $4M option bonus as dead money, but that option has not yet been picked up and so would not count as dead money. I'm not sure of the date for that option bonus, but I believe it needs to be picked up some time in 2017, at which point the $4M will be prorated over the final 3 years of the contract, on top of the initial signing bonus proration.

    So, considering all of this, I believe the dead money hit if we were to release DT today would be $21.8M. That comprises of his fully guaranteed 2016 base salary ($13M) and the rest of his initial signing bonus proration ($8.8M).

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  • olgrouch
    replied
    Originally posted by CDUB1620 View Post
    Everybody lay off of DT. It's getting really old. He had over 1300 yards last season, but didn't get as many touchdowns as people have come to expect. He was dealing with an offense that struggled all year especially in the red zone. We had two different starting QBs with different skillsets, and he had to learn a new offense, which we didn't run consistently...He's staying!
    Have you considered that he was ONE OF THE REASONS the red zone offense was so poor? It's called CHOKING I believe.

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