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As many of you know, ESPN has a neat feature in their Next Gen Stats called QB grids. Here you can see Quarterbacks' passing attempts displayed on a field, allowing you to see the air distance and result(complete, incomplete, TD, INT) of the passes.
It has been my belief the last few years that much of our offensive woes come from lacking a QB that could challenge the secondary deep. When a defense isn't as concerned about a QB completing passes over the top, they can cheat forward; they can cover the short stuff better, react to the run sooner, and gang tackle better thus limiting YAC.
I decided to check out the Next Gen Stats to see if the stats backed up my hunch. Unfortunately, they don't compile all of the statistics very well. So, if you want any meaningful sample size, you have to punch some numbers yourself. Over the last few days, I did just that.
The statistics go back to 2016, but not every game of that year is included. I tallied the stats from every game the QBs below had listed on the site.
Here are the numbers for some familiar faces:
Keenum
24 games -- 1.3 completions of 20+ yards and 3.9 attempts per game -- 29 yards per game on average coming from 20+ yard throws
Overall, on 20+ hard throws he was 32/94 -- 34% completion for 6 td 11 int -- 704 yards -- 7.5 YPA -- 43.35 passer rating
Osweiler
10 games -- 0.9/3.0 per game -- 24.9 yards per game -- 9/30 -- 3 TDs 4 INTs -- 30% -- 249 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 55.42 passer rating
Siemien
12 games -- 1.25/3.9 per game -- 32 yards per game -- 15/47 -- 5 TDs 5 int -- 32% -- 391 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 59.22 passer rating
Dang. So Keenum was the worst we've had in a while at 20+ yard throws according to passer rating. Not surprising, but I still wanted more context. How bad was this group compared to other QBs in the league?
I checked out the numbers for several other QBs, some I thought would be bad and some I thought would be good. Here is how our prior QBs stacked up, sorted by passer rating from worst to best.
Keenum
24 games -- 1.3 of 3.9 per game -- 29 yards per game -- totals of 32/94 -- 6 td 11 int -- 34% -- 704 yards -- 7.5 YPA -- 43.35 passer rating
Osweiler
10 games -- 0.9/3.0 per game -- 24.9 yards per game -- 9/30 -- 3 TDs 4 INTs -- 30% -- 249 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 55.42 passer rating
Siemien
12 games -- 1.25/3.9 per game -- 32 yards per game -- 15/47 -- 5 TDs 5 int -- 32% -- 391 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 59.22 passer rating
McCown
12 games -- 1.25/3.6 -- 36.8 yards per game -- 15/45 -- 4 TDs 5 INT - 31% -- 442 yards -- 9.8 YPA -- 60.83 passer rating
Winston
26 games -- 1.4/4.1 per game -- 38 yards a game
37/107 -- 17 TDs 13 INTs -- 34% -- 1001 yards -- 9.3 YPA -- 69.88 passer rating
Bortles
23 games -- 1.1/3.8 per game -- 31.6 YPG -- 27/87 -- 6 TDs 3 INT -- 31% -- 728 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 71.43 passer rating
Eli Manning
32 games -- 1.2/3.8 per game -- 36.7 YPG --
41/123 -- 13 TDs 9 INT -- 33% -- 1175 yards -- 9.5 YPA -- 74.41 passer rating
Fitzpatrick
10 games -- 1.7/5.6 per game -- 46.5 YPG
17/56 -- 6 TDs 2 INT -- 30% -- 465 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 82.81 passer rating
Carr
26 games -- 1.4/3.6 per game -- 39.5 YPG
37/94 -- 12 TD 8 INT -- 39% -- 1009 yards -- 10.7 YPA -- 83.73 passer rating
Mariota
25 games -- 1.2/3.5 per game -- 34 yards a game -- 32/88 -- 10 TDs 5 INT -- 36% -- 865 yards -- 9.8 YPA 87.55 passer rating
Stafford
32 games -- 1.4/3.6 per game -- 39 yards a game-- 46/115 -- 15 TD 6 INT -- 40% -- 1266 yards -- 11.0 YPA -- 99.13 passer rating
Dalton
25 games -- 1/3 per game -- 29 yards a game
26/76 -- 9 TDs 2 INT -- 34% -- 738 yards --
9.7 YPA -- 99.56 passer rating
Big Ben
29 games -- 1.9/5.1 per game -- 55 yards per game-- 55/150 -- 36% -- 1599 yards -- 10.6 YPA -- 99.97 passer rating
Cousins
27 games -- 1.7/4.3 per game -- 47 yards a game
46/117 -- 18 TD 4 INT -- 39% -- 1267 yards --
10.9 YPA --105.31 passer rating
Russell Wilson
29 games -- 2.4/4.9 per game -- 71 yards a game
70/143 -- 18 TD 5 INT -- 49% -- 2082 yards -- 14.5 YPA -- 119.97 passer rating
Alrighty then. So we have had some of the worst deep throwing QBs in the league the last few years. That has been a major factor in our offense struggling. Maybe not the most significant factor, but still significant in it's own right.
To give myself some optimism, I looked up Flacco. One of his strong suits is the deep ball, right? I remember some time 10 years ago or so he led the league in deep passes. Hopefully he can help open things up for us. However, that was 24-26 year old Flacco. How has 31-34 year old Flacco been? Age tends hurt mobility and deep balls in QBs...
Flacco
36 games -- 0.8 completions per game 3.1 attempts per game -- 24 yards per game
30/114 total -- 10 td 11 int total -- 28% completion -- 868 total yards -- 7.6 YPA -- 48.46 passer rating
So, what do we think about that?
Maybe we want something else? Maybe deep passes aren't as important as something like 3rd down? Well let's look at that too...
On 3rd downs that saw him pass the ball, Flacco converted 40.7% of those into 1st downs. Last in the league. For the chiefs fan, Mahomes led the league with a 51.6% passing success rate on 3rd down.
In 2018, throws on third down saw Flacco average a pass 0.3 yards short of the first down. An improvement on Keenum's 1.5 yards short in the same year. Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield as rookies all averaged a 3rd down pass at or beyond the sticks. Surprisingly
In 2017, Flacco averaged 2.2 yards short of the marker, ranking 38th of 41 qualifying QBs. Denver's qualifying passers, Osweiler and Siemien, averaged passes 1.5 and 0.5 yards short. Rookie D. Watson led the league that year with an average 3rd down pass exceeding the line to gain by 1.8 yards. Glennon pulled up the rear 3.3 yards short on average.
In 2016, Flacco averaged a 3rd down pass 1.3 yards short of the marker, good for 36th of 39 QBs. Trevor Siemien averaged 0.3 yards beyond the sticks this year, the one time a QB has not been negative for Denver yet in this assessment. Rookie Jared Goff came in last averaging 2.1 yards short.
Here are a few stats and a handful of players to compare:
Third down throws by distance short/beyond sticks, 2018
Jameis Winston +1.5
Patrick Mahones +0.3
Sam Darnold +0.1
Baker Mayfield +0.1
Mitch Trubisky +0.1
Russell Wilson 0.0
Deshaun Watson -0.2
Aaron Rodgers -0.2
Brock Osweiler -0.3
Joe Flacco -0.3
Lamar Jackson -0.4
Josh Rosen -1.0
Kirk Cousins -1.2
Case Keenum -1.5
Eli Manning -2.0
CJ Beathard -2.3
Nick Foles -2.5
Third down throws by distance short/beyond sticks, 2017
Deshaun Watson +1.8
Carson Wentz +0.8
Roethlisberger +0.4
Tom Brady +0.2
Matt Ryan -0.1
Trevor Siemien -0.5
Andy Dalton -0.8
Blake Bortles -1.1
Josh McCown -1.3
Case Keenum -1.4
Brock Osweiler -1.5
Joe Flacco -2.2
Mike Glennon -3.3
Third down throws by distance short/beyond sticks, 2016
Cam Newton +1.7
Carson Palmer +0.9
Aaron Rodger +0.8
Kirk Cousins +0.7
Ben Roethlisberger +0.7
Blaine Gabbert +0.3
Trevor Siemien +0.3
Blake Bortles +0.1
Russell Wilson 0.0
Andy Dalton -0.3
Brian Hoyer -0.8
Ryan Tannehill -0.9
Joe Flacco -1.3
Sam Bradford -2.0
Jared Goff -2.1
Yeah. Flacco is not good. He is not a top 11 QB in this league, not even close. By all methods of assessment and analysis he is assuredly bottom 11. Honestly, bottom 5.
A lot of facts were presented in this post, but none more true than this:
Joe Flacco is a well below average Quarterback
Do we have a team capable of carrying him? We will see.
Have to hand it to you papa...that's one very telling post and well thought out. If I wasn't on mobile I'd cp you. I've been on the fence ever since the trade happened. I'm just not a believer when it comes to Elway and QBs...for some reason he cant quite nail it. I hope I'm wrong but I know Flacco will rear his head at some point. If Lock comes in and isn't the answer I'll finally be on the elway needs to be looked at as far as resigning or getting replaced.
At this point debating about Flacco is pointless, he’s really the only option. We’ve seen even mediocre/below average QBs like Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzgerald have random, really good seasons. The hope is that Flacco can do something similar. But, if he really sucks, hopefully Lock can heal (and learn) fast.
As many of you know, ESPN has a neat feature in their Next Gen Stats called QB grids. Here you can see Quarterbacks' passing attempts displayed on a field, allowing you to see the air distance and result(complete, incomplete, TD, INT) of the passes.
It has been my belief the last few years that much of our offensive woes come from lacking a QB that could challenge the secondary deep. When a defense isn't as concerned about a QB completing passes over the top, they can cheat forward; they can cover the short stuff better, react to the run sooner, and gang tackle better thus limiting YAC.
I decided to check out the Next Gen Stats to see if the stats backed up my hunch. Unfortunately, they don't compile all of the statistics very well. So, if you want any meaningful sample size, you have to punch some numbers yourself. Over the last few days, I did just that.
The statistics go back to 2016, but not every game of that year is included. I tallied the stats from every game the QBs below had listed on the site.
A lot of facts were presented in this post, but none more true than this:
Joe Flacco is a well below average Quarterback
Do we have a team capable of carrying him? We will see.
That's not a "fact", it's a conclusion and a short-sighted one from very limited data the nature of which leaves out many factors. [BTW, I consulted NextGen stats alot in the the past two years for Keenum and Siemian, the drive charts for individual games, and their season summaries, and made comparisons to other QBs and to previous stints like in Minn.]
The problem with them is that they don't tell you anything about the actual circumstances of those incompletions. Sometimes the fault is on the receiver, sometimes it's a credit to a DB making a great play, sometimes the OL can't sustain protection for a deeper throw, or an elite pass rusher is disrupting the attempt. And sometimes -as Crabcruncher just rightly pointed out- the QB takes what the defense gives them even if that's only short stuff. I saw plenty of drive charts for Brees and Rodgers which showed exactly that and it would be wrong to conclude anything about them because of it. Until you can eliminate such factors through studying the tape to effectively "distill" the stats, they really don't mean much at this point.
and I would bet that for every play you show that you feel flacco was bad
someone could show you at least that flacco did everything right, but the play failed because of a penalty, a dropped ball, the wr running a wrong route, or a number of other reason
picking bad plays from games is just nit picky...you could go over tom brady games and show his bad plays also
I believe you missed the point of how those plays tied into one of Flacco’s tendencies over the last few seasons.
Throwing to a guy who keeps dropping passes makes that guy invisible to a qb. You don't win games playing bad odds over the long run. You take what the defense gives you. Sometimes the tackle for a loss turns into a fourth and 24 conversion, like in the Charger game when Ray Rice was his running back.
Flacco gave Perriman two seasons to get the dropsies under control. There wasn't a third season.
It’s not about one play or one receiver, it’s about a tendency to not set his feet, resulting in an inaccurate pass or a check down too quickly.
“I would say there were times where, yes, I’ve been on my back foot where I wish I could stand in there strong and do a better job,”
- Joe Flacco
It’s an area he described as relying too much on his arm strength. Even with protection it’s a fine line between rushing and setting your feet or seeing a receiver coming open.
A good example was the 49ers game where he waited just long enough to anticipate Sutton coming open over the middle in zone coverage. If he can make more of those plays vs the others posted earlier, he should have a solid season.
The challenge of being a fan is not being able to objectively discuss the strengths and weaknesses of a player. Flacco is talented and comes with weaknesses.
As many of you know, ESPN has a neat feature in their Next Gen Stats called QB grids. Here you can see Quarterbacks' passing attempts displayed on a field, allowing you to see the air distance and result(complete, incomplete, TD, INT) of the passes.
It has been my belief the last few years that much of our offensive woes come from lacking a QB that could challenge the secondary deep. When a defense isn't as concerned about a QB completing passes over the top, they can cheat forward; they can cover the short stuff better, react to the run sooner, and gang tackle better thus limiting YAC.
I decided to check out the Next Gen Stats to see if the stats backed up my hunch. Unfortunately, they don't compile all of the statistics very well. So, if you want any meaningful sample size, you have to punch some numbers yourself. Over the last few days, I did just that.
The statistics go back to 2016, but not every game of that year is included. I tallied the stats from every game the QBs below had listed on the site.
Here are the numbers for some familiar faces:
Keenum
24 games -- 1.3 completions of 20+ yards and 3.9 attempts per game -- 29 yards per game on average coming from 20+ yard throws
Overall, on 20+ hard throws he was 32/94 -- 34% completion for 6 td 11 int -- 704 yards -- 7.5 YPA -- 43.35 passer rating
Osweiler
10 games -- 0.9/3.0 per game -- 24.9 yards per game -- 9/30 -- 3 TDs 4 INTs -- 30% -- 249 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 55.42 passer rating
Siemien
12 games -- 1.25/3.9 per game -- 32 yards per game -- 15/47 -- 5 TDs 5 int -- 32% -- 391 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 59.22 passer rating
Dang. So Keenum was the worst we've had in a while at 20+ yard throws according to passer rating. Not surprising, but I still wanted more context. How bad was this group compared to other QBs in the league?
I checked out the numbers for several other QBs, some I thought would be bad and some I thought would be good. Here is how our prior QBs stacked up, sorted by passer rating from worst to best.
Keenum
24 games -- 1.3 of 3.9 per game -- 29 yards per game -- totals of 32/94 -- 6 td 11 int -- 34% -- 704 yards -- 7.5 YPA -- 43.35 passer rating
Osweiler
10 games -- 0.9/3.0 per game -- 24.9 yards per game -- 9/30 -- 3 TDs 4 INTs -- 30% -- 249 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 55.42 passer rating
Siemien
12 games -- 1.25/3.9 per game -- 32 yards per game -- 15/47 -- 5 TDs 5 int -- 32% -- 391 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 59.22 passer rating
McCown
12 games -- 1.25/3.6 -- 36.8 yards per game -- 15/45 -- 4 TDs 5 INT - 31% -- 442 yards -- 9.8 YPA -- 60.83 passer rating
Winston
26 games -- 1.4/4.1 per game -- 38 yards a game
37/107 -- 17 TDs 13 INTs -- 34% -- 1001 yards -- 9.3 YPA -- 69.88 passer rating
Bortles
23 games -- 1.1/3.8 per game -- 31.6 YPG -- 27/87 -- 6 TDs 3 INT -- 31% -- 728 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 71.43 passer rating
Eli Manning
32 games -- 1.2/3.8 per game -- 36.7 YPG --
41/123 -- 13 TDs 9 INT -- 33% -- 1175 yards -- 9.5 YPA -- 74.41 passer rating
Fitzpatrick
10 games -- 1.7/5.6 per game -- 46.5 YPG
17/56 -- 6 TDs 2 INT -- 30% -- 465 yards -- 8.3 YPA -- 82.81 passer rating
Carr
26 games -- 1.4/3.6 per game -- 39.5 YPG
37/94 -- 12 TD 8 INT -- 39% -- 1009 yards -- 10.7 YPA -- 83.73 passer rating
Mariota
25 games -- 1.2/3.5 per game -- 34 yards a game -- 32/88 -- 10 TDs 5 INT -- 36% -- 865 yards -- 9.8 YPA 87.55 passer rating
Stafford
32 games -- 1.4/3.6 per game -- 39 yards a game-- 46/115 -- 15 TD 6 INT -- 40% -- 1266 yards -- 11.0 YPA -- 99.13 passer rating
Dalton
25 games -- 1/3 per game -- 29 yards a game
26/76 -- 9 TDs 2 INT -- 34% -- 738 yards --
9.7 YPA -- 99.56 passer rating
Big Ben
29 games -- 1.9/5.1 per game -- 55 yards per game-- 55/150 -- 36% -- 1599 yards -- 10.6 YPA -- 99.97 passer rating
Cousins
27 games -- 1.7/4.3 per game -- 47 yards a game
46/117 -- 18 TD 4 INT -- 39% -- 1267 yards --
10.9 YPA --105.31 passer rating
Russell Wilson
29 games -- 2.4/4.9 per game -- 71 yards a game
70/143 -- 18 TD 5 INT -- 49% -- 2082 yards -- 14.5 YPA -- 119.97 passer rating
Alrighty then. So we have had some of the worst deep throwing QBs in the league the last few years. That has been a major factor in our offense struggling. Maybe not the most significant factor, but still significant in it's own right.
To give myself some optimism, I looked up Flacco. One of his strong suits is the deep ball, right? I remember some time 10 years ago or so he led the league in deep passes. Hopefully he can help open things up for us. However, that was 24-26 year old Flacco. How has 31-34 year old Flacco been? Age tends hurt mobility and deep balls in QBs...
Flacco
36 games -- 0.8 completions per game 3.1 attempts per game -- 24 yards per game
30/114 total -- 10 td 11 int total -- 28% completion -- 868 total yards -- 7.6 YPA -- 48.46 passer rating
So, what do we think about that?
Maybe we want something else? Maybe deep passes aren't as important as something like 3rd down? Well let's look at that too...
On 3rd downs that saw him pass the ball, Flacco converted 40.7% of those into 1st downs. Last in the league. For the chiefs fan, Mahomes led the league with a 51.6% passing success rate on 3rd down.
In 2018, throws on third down saw Flacco average a pass 0.3 yards short of the first down. An improvement on Keenum's 1.5 yards short in the same year. Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield as rookies all averaged a 3rd down pass at or beyond the sticks. Surprisingly
In 2017, Flacco averaged 2.2 yards short of the marker, ranking 38th of 41 qualifying QBs. Denver's qualifying passers, Osweiler and Siemien, averaged passes 1.5 and 0.5 yards short. Rookie D. Watson led the league that year with an average 3rd down pass exceeding the line to gain by 1.8 yards. Glennon pulled up the rear 3.3 yards short on average.
In 2016, Flacco averaged a 3rd down pass 1.3 yards short of the marker, good for 36th of 39 QBs. Trevor Siemien averaged 0.3 yards beyond the sticks this year, the one time a QB has not been negative for Denver yet in this assessment. Rookie Jared Goff came in last averaging 2.1 yards short.
Here are a few stats and a handful of players to compare:
Third down throws by distance short/beyond sticks, 2018
Jameis Winston +1.5
Patrick Mahones +0.3
Sam Darnold +0.1
Baker Mayfield +0.1
Mitch Trubisky +0.1
Russell Wilson 0.0
Deshaun Watson -0.2
Aaron Rodgers -0.2
Brock Osweiler -0.3
Joe Flacco -0.3
Lamar Jackson -0.4
Josh Rosen -1.0
Kirk Cousins -1.2
Case Keenum -1.5
Eli Manning -2.0
CJ Beathard -2.3
Nick Foles -2.5
Third down throws by distance short/beyond sticks, 2017
Deshaun Watson +1.8
Carson Wentz +0.8
Roethlisberger +0.4
Tom Brady +0.2
Matt Ryan -0.1
Trevor Siemien -0.5
Andy Dalton -0.8
Blake Bortles -1.1
Josh McCown -1.3
Case Keenum -1.4
Brock Osweiler -1.5
Joe Flacco -2.2
Mike Glennon -3.3
Third down throws by distance short/beyond sticks, 2016
Cam Newton +1.7
Carson Palmer +0.9
Aaron Rodger +0.8
Kirk Cousins +0.7
Ben Roethlisberger +0.7
Blaine Gabbert +0.3
Trevor Siemien +0.3
Blake Bortles +0.1
Russell Wilson 0.0
Andy Dalton -0.3
Brian Hoyer -0.8
Ryan Tannehill -0.9
Joe Flacco -1.3
Sam Bradford -2.0
Jared Goff -2.1
Yeah. Flacco is not good. He is not a top 11 QB in this league, not even close. By all methods of assessment and analysis he is assuredly bottom 11. Honestly, bottom 5.
A lot of facts were presented in this post, but none more true than this:
Joe Flacco is a well below average Quarterback
Do we have a team capable of carrying him? We will see.
Have to hand it to you papa...that's one very telling post and well thought out. If I wasn't on mobile I'd cp you. I've been on the fence ever since the trade happened. I'm just not a believer when it comes to Elway and QBs...for some reason he cant quite nail it. I hope I'm wrong but I know Flacco will rear his head at some point. If Lock comes in and isn't the answer I'll finally be on the elway needs to be looked at as far as resigning or getting replaced.
I thought that Peyton guy was a pretty good signing.
I said it before, I friend of mine (Big Rat bird Fans) said Flacco can make all the throws, but you have to protect him. They said he gets jumpy and can make some bad decisions, if you can get pressure up the middle on him.
I said it before, I friend of mine (Big Rat bird Fans) said Flacco can make all the throws, but you have to protect him. They said he gets jumpy and can make some bad decisions, if you can get pressure up the middle on him.
Well hopefully Risner can help with that but we still have a guy next to him that will make it hard on ole Joe
It’s not about one play or one receiver, it’s about a tendency to not set his feet, resulting in an inaccurate pass or a check down too quickly.
“I would say there were times where, yes, I’ve been on my back foot where I wish I could stand in there strong and do a better job,”
- Joe Flacco
It’s an area he described as relying too much on his arm strength. Even with protection it’s a fine line between rushing and setting your feet or seeing a receiver coming open.
A good example was the 49ers game where he waited just long enough to anticipate Sutton coming open over the middle in zone coverage. If he can make more of those plays vs the others posted earlier, he should have a solid season.
The challenge of being a fan is not being able to objectively discuss the strengths and weaknesses of a player. Flacco is talented and comes with weaknesses.
Heres a video on Flaccos mechanics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wM14WljTz4
notice the defender closing in for the big hit, while Flacco still completes the long pass at the two minute thirty mark
The challenge of a fan is being able to forgive a player after he becomes a member of your own team.
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