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Dark Horse MVP Candidates

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  • #16
    I don’t think a player can be a dark horse candidate for mvp after just five games at the end of the previous season.

    It is nice to see Lock getting some recognition though.
    My Opinion isn’t determined by what the Popular Opinion is. Sometimes I agree with the Majority, Sometimes I Don’t. If My Opinion is Different than Yours, I have to Ask One Question:
    You Mad Bro?
    Don’t Be A Mean Girl

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    • #17
      Originally posted by broncolee View Post
      I don’t think a player can be a dark horse candidate for mvp after just five games at the end of the previous season.

      It is nice to see Lock getting some recognition though.
      It isn’t unheard of, Lamar Jackson only started 7 regular season games and he ended up winning MVP

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      • #18
        Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post
        It isn’t unheard of, Lamar Jackson only started 7 regular season games and he ended up winning MVP
        Jackson only won MVP because Mahomes got hurt.
        Last edited by BroncoBrennan89; 05-15-2020, 08:52 PM.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by GiddyupGetEm View Post
          Quick reminder of the nearly identical stats through first five starts: Trevor Siemian versus Drew Lock

          Record: 4-1. 4-1
          Comp/Att. 98/151. 100/156
          TDs. 7 7
          INTs. 3. 3
          Yards. 1054. 1020
          Stats aside, I will point to 3 plays that Lock made last year that Trevor Siemian would have no chance of making. The first was the touchdown to Fant in the Houston game, he put the ball exactly where it needed to be, Siemian can't make that throw. The second is from the same game, a perfect pass to Patrick on the sidelines right in-between two defenders, perfect pass and a lot of guts to attempt it. Siemian can't make that pass. The third was in the loss to KC, on 4th down Lock threw a perfect pass to Fant along the sidelines for a long gain. The pass again was perfectly placed, dropped right in the bucket. Siemian can't make that pass.

          Stats are great, but they rarely tell the full story, especially in this case. Watching the two QBs play, you can tell that Lock can make throws that Siemian has no chance of making, and frankly wouldn't even attempt. Just watch the two QBs play.

          Actually I've got one more example for you of a massive thing that separates Lock from any Siemian comparison and that comes from the loss in Kansas City. The Broncos were getting whipped, the o-line was struggling and there were some unfortunate drops by receivers. But Lock stayed in there the entire game and kept hanging in and trying to make plays. He showed no fear in taking a hit trying to make a play. Siemian often got happy feet and would start to escape too soon (rather than stepping up in the pocket) or he would start drifting back, and shorten the path for the DEs.

          I understand the stats are the same, but I'm not sure how anyone who watched the two QBs can actually compare them?

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          • #20
            Originally posted by BroncoBrennan89 View Post
            Jackson only won MVP because Mahomes got hurt.
            Ok. Mahomes had 1 start before his MVP season. Marino had 9 starts, and won the MVP in his second year. He was 28 years old, but Kurt Warner with no NFL starts. I don't think it's as much about how young Lock is, but the list of quarterbacks who've won the MVP. A lot of QBs can win the MVP in the right situation. Joe Theisman, Steve McNair, Brian Sipe, Rich Gannon, Boomer Esiason, etc.

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            • #21
              I would not bet on Lock winning MVP, and he may never win it. But if we have a really good season, he may be under consideration. And if he improves say 10-20% as a player, surrounded by the weapon base he now has, I can see our record and his performance as part of it, get him elevated to consideration level, given I am not sure any one of our RBs/WRs will dominate in terms of team comparable stats.

              But the good news with having this much O talent is that, he will look like a better play without having to do a whole lot more.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by GiddyupGetEm View Post
                Quick reminder of the nearly identical stats through first five starts: Trevor Siemian versus Drew Lock

                Record: 4-1. 4-1
                Comp/Att. 98/151. 100/156
                TDs. 7 7
                INTs. 3. 3
                Yards. 1054. 1020
                Drew did well going 4-1....for me verdict is out for me not sold. Seen hot starts a lot in the NFL. Can't say anyone is the franchise or future especially at qb after only 5 starts. But we will see.
                Until we get a TRUE not name "Lock" qb we will miss the playoffs and be average at best! I'm E2DS and I approve this message! "AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW, NOW YA KNOW."

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by BroncoBrennan89 View Post
                  Jackson only won MVP because Mahomes got hurt.
                  thats not a fact thats an assumption.
                  Until we get a TRUE not name "Lock" qb we will miss the playoffs and be average at best! I'm E2DS and I approve this message! "AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW, NOW YA KNOW."

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by GiddyupGetEm View Post
                    Quick reminder of the nearly identical stats through first five starts: Trevor Siemian versus Drew Lock

                    Record: 4-1. 4-1
                    Comp/Att. 98/151. 100/156
                    TDs. 7 7
                    INTs. 3. 3
                    Yards. 1054. 1020
                    Really? How is that a fair comparison? Siemian took over a Super Bowl Champion team in his 2nd year, Lock took over a 3-8 team on its way to its 3rd straight losing season, in his rookie year, coming off IR. Both situations are vastly different.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Broncos-R-Great View Post
                      Really? How is that a fair comparison? Siemian took over a Super Bowl Champion team in his 2nd year, Lock took over a 3-8 team on its way to its 3rd straight losing season, in his rookie year, coming off IR. Both situations are vastly different.
                      It is fair because the numbers are the numbers. Whether the QB is inheriting a Super Bowl team or a 3-8 team doesn’t affect the passing stats. The fact that their passing statistics are so similar merely suggests the sample size to declare Drew Lock an MVP candidate is way too small.

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                      • #26
                        Dark Horse Candidate by definition means not very likely. I will be thrilled if by the end of the season he is in the Top10 of MVP voting. It means he and the Broncos had a great season.

                        I’m just happy others outside of Denver are seeing some of the same positives as we are. Not just by Lock individually but the overall team. Broncos are making people notice in a lot of ways. I like that trend!

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by FR Tim View Post
                          Dark Horse Candidate by definition means not very likely. I will be thrilled if by the end of the season he is in the Top10 of MVP voting. It means he and the Broncos had a great season.

                          I’m just happy others outside of Denver are seeing some of the same positives as we are. Not just by Lock individually but the overall team. Broncos are making people notice in a lot of ways. I like that trend!
                          Exactly. A dark horse is a long shot. The favorites are obviously players like Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson and of course most reasonable people would pick any of these to win MVP straight up over Lock.

                          Now it's matter of the odds given. Who here would be Mahomes at -200 instead of Lock at 100 for 1?

                          If you bet $100 on Mahomes you'll win $50. Or bet $100 on Lock and win $10,000.

                          Personally I wouldn't take Lock at 10:1 but at 100:1 I'd take a serious look...

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by GiddyupGetEm View Post
                            It is fair because the numbers are the numbers. Whether the QB is inheriting a Super Bowl team or a 3-8 team doesn’t affect the passing stats. The fact that their passing statistics are so similar merely suggests the sample size to declare Drew Lock an MVP candidate is way too small.
                            The numbers are the numbers but numbers lie. Siemian had a better group to throw the ball too. He didn’t have an inexperienced play caller calling and designing plays for him. Siemian has a year to learn and practice the system and gain chemistry with the WRs, Lock had a handful of practices. Siemian’s first 5 games were at the beginning of the season when teams were still feeling out themselves whereas Lock faced 5 defenses that already knew what they could and couldn’t do. The numbers may be similar but the circumstances are very different.

                            And a dark horse isn’t the same as a legitimate candidate.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by BroncoBrennan89 View Post
                              Jackson only won MVP because Mahomes got hurt.
                              Ok it’s certainly possible but then Jackson finishes 2nd in MVP voting. No one would have thought that was possible after the way his rookie season ended. Even his most ardent supporters likely thought it’d be a few seasons.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by GiddyupGetEm View Post
                                Quick reminder of the nearly identical stats through first five starts: Trevor Siemian versus Drew Lock

                                Record: 4-1. 4-1
                                Comp/Att. 98/151. 100/156
                                TDs. 7 7
                                INTs. 3. 3
                                Yards. 1054. 1020
                                Siemian doesn't have anywhere near the physical gifts that Lock has. If Lock flames out, it won't be anything like how Siemian went.
                                Eternal Broncos Optimist

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