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Can you aren’t making any sense. If the Bungels don’t deserve the pick again without any evidence of deserving it then how can you possibly come up with any method to allow any other team or having it without a single game of evidence that they deserve it?
I’d rather cancel the draft than award someone the top pick for some completely arbitrary reason. At least as of the last time we actually watched football the Bungles were the worst team. You can’t just change how the NFL has always determined draft order without a single game played between this draft and next.
But can you say definitively they’d be the worst team again this year? If there’s any chance that they wouldn’t be (and I do believe they’ll be improved) then they should have a chance to not pick 1st overall which could be accomplished via a lottery.
And honestly the amount of change a lottery would create would be very slight. And if they’re that worried about it they could section off teams based on records into multiple pools.
I believe the draft will happen no matter what. It's the most successful sports event we've had in the US in months. There isn't any reason not to hold the draft. I think the smartest thing would be to have contingency plans for a variety of outcomes. Full season? Only play a couple of games? No season?
Without giving it a lot of thought and considering the teams will be greatly divided on what would be "fair", the best idea I came up with is to take the wins over the past 3-5 years and use this as the basis for the draft order, with the teams with the fewer wins drafting first. While the bad teams don't deserve a break, their fans do.
This is a good example of a paradise fallacy where something has to be perfect instead of the best option. There are no perfect solutions for this. The best action for the draft and NFL season may well be the best option from a bunch of bad choices.
The bolded part is correct....the previous season. Not 2 seasons in a row. Lotteries are used in various sports. Not silly. Silly is knocking an opinion that has merit.
There is no merit to the silly opinion.
If the Bengals get the number one pick in 2021, it will be because they were the worst team in 2020, not 2019. They already got the fist pick for being the worst team in 2019.
My Opinion isn’t determined by what the Popular Opinion is. Sometimes I agree with the Majority, Sometimes I Don’t. If My Opinion is Different than Yours, I have to Ask One Question:
You Mad Bro?
Don’t Be A Mean Girl
Can you aren’t making any sense. If the Bungels don’t deserve the pick again without any evidence of deserving it then how can you possibly come up with any method to allow any other team or having it without a single game of evidence that they deserve it?
I’d rather cancel the draft than award someone the top pick for some completely arbitrary reason. At least as of the last time we actually watched football the Bungles were the worst team. You can’t just change how the NFL has always determined draft order without a single game played between this draft and next.
This is where you go wrong Can. It will not be 2 seasons in a row because there wouldn’t be a season in this scenario. So what he said based on last season would still be correct.
It’s two drafts in a row but not two seasons.
I totally disagree.....and do not think I am going wrong.
As we know it....season played...draft order follows. No problem. Bengals go #1, followed by designated order/trades made.
BUT IF the next season not played, there is no season to design a draft around. The Bengals got their pick due to their performance in a real season. Free Agency happened. Players/coaches have moved in and on. New situation. No reason to assume the previous year will be duplicated, because things are all new again. Following the exact draft order again would overly compensate the poor performance of the lower teams.
Therefore I feel like it would be very fair to weight the lottery based on the previous year's standings, but not giving the lower teams a lock to get high picks. For example, say The Bengals got double the chance of KC, and everyone in between was given an incremental decline from 1st to 32nd. That way the bottom teams would likely do better, but perhaps not all of them.
But why should they? This should have been a new season, and I am absolutely certain that the draft order would be different, given teams improve and some decline. Think of the Strength of Schedule discussion. There was a time that it was more credible at the beginning of the season as it is now. Most folks know that what happens one year does not repeat itself, or at least, does not offer any guarantees in terms of likelihood. We all know that some teams even catapult, and some even drop out of sight...compared to their previous season. So to me, there is not a valid reason to guarantee teams the tops picks, nor guarantee overachievers that they get two low draft picks in a row.
So no....no way do The Bengals get Burrow and Lawrence back to back, based on the same season's outcome. That's far too much reward for sucking!!!
Another concept could be a snaking draft which was actually proposed when It looked like the nfl was going to be without a CBA
Or use the modified lotto system the NHL did in their lockout season.
Teams were weighted based on playoff appearances in the last three completed seasons (2001-02, 02-03 and 03-04), and first overall picks in the last four drafts (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004). Three balls each were assigned to teams which had not qualified for any of those playoffs and received no first overall picks in that period. Teams which had one playoff appearance or first overall pick in those years were given two lottery balls. All other teams received one lottery ball.
This produced a total of 48 balls. As a result, teams with three balls had a 6.3% chance of winning the lottery, two balls 4.2%, and one ball 2.1%. The Pittsburgh Penguins won the lottery and therefore the first overall pick. Further drawing of team names was used to determine the order of the remaining picks
And....the NFL would have to find a way to deal with traded draft picks..... throwing another monkey wrench into the plans..,
Another concept could be a snaking draft which was actually proposed when It looked like the nfl was going to be without a CBA
Or use the modified lotto system the NHL did in their lockout season.
Teams were weighted based on playoff appearances in the last three completed seasons (2001-02, 02-03 and 03-04), and first overall picks in the last four drafts (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004). Three balls each were assigned to teams which had not qualified for any of those playoffs and received no first overall picks in that period. Teams which had one playoff appearance or first overall pick in those years were given two lottery balls. All other teams received one lottery ball.
This produced a total of 48 balls. As a result, teams with three balls had a 6.3% chance of winning the lottery, two balls 4.2%, and one ball 2.1%. The Pittsburgh Penguins won the lottery and therefore the first overall pick. Further drawing of team names was used to determine the order of the remaining picks
And....the NFL would have to find a way to deal with traded draft picks..... throwing another monkey wrench into the plans..,
I totally disagree.....and do not think I am going wrong.
As we know it....season played...draft order follows. No problem. Bengals go #1, followed by designated order/trades made.
BUT IF the next season not played, there is no season to design a draft around. The Bengals got their pick due to their performance in a real season. Free Agency happened. Players/coaches have moved in and on. New situation. No reason to assume the previous year will be duplicated, because things are all new again. Following the exact draft order again would overly compensate the poor performance of the lower teams.
Therefore I feel like it would be very fair to weight the lottery based on the previous year's standings, but not giving the lower teams a lock to get high picks. For example, say The Bengals got double the chance of KC, and everyone in between was given an incremental decline from 1st to 32nd. That way the bottom teams would likely do better, but perhaps not all of them.
But why should they? This should have been a new season, and I am absolutely certain that the draft order would be different, given teams improve and some decline. Think of the Strength of Schedule discussion. There was a time that it was more credible at the beginning of the season as it is now. Most folks know that what happens one year does not repeat itself, or at least, does not offer any guarantees in terms of likelihood. We all know that some teams even catapult, and some even drop out of sight...compared to their previous season. So to me, there is not a valid reason to guarantee teams the tops picks, nor guarantee overachievers that they get two low draft picks in a row.
So no....no way do The Bengals get Burrow and Lawrence back to back, based on the same season's outcome. That's far too much reward for sucking!!!
It’s hilarious you keep saying burrows and Lawrence. They obviously would not do that without a season to back it up. I know you’re upset they could trade down. But what makes you so sure they would do that?
What if another top defensive player is available like a chase young and they take him for immediate impact?
What makes you so sure any team is going to want to trade up if the college season is canceled? Historically every college player that has sat out a year has never panned out in the nfl. There’s going to be a lot of issues with next years draft class if a season doesn’t happen. There likely isn’t even 200 players worth drafting if they’ve all sat a year.
The only way I could get behind a type of lottery system is if you sectioned it off. Like say you only draw balls for the worst 5 teams until the top 5 is set. No one outside the top 5 can jump in and no one currently in the top 5 can have the risk of plummeting. Because as I said the other day you do a lottery where the bungles fall to 14 and you’ve just doomed burrows and the bungles for the next 5 years. Think it can’t happen? It just happened in the NBA or NHL I believe where a top 2 worst team plummeted to 10 in the lottery.
So maybe if you guarantee the bungles a top 5 pick but not necessarily the top pick that might could work. Then you section off teams 6-10, 11-15 and so on. Most people don’t even like the lottery in the nba and nhl and believe both are corrupt in favor of large market teams so it’s baffling anyone could get behind that idea for the biggest sport in the country.
I also feel like y’all didn’t pay that close attention to just how bad the bungles and redskins were if you really think two consecutive seasons of top two picks is going to instantly improve them any more than about 5-6 wins.
I just refuse to get behind any system that potentially allows a near playoff team like say the Steelers who probably only missed out due to big bens injury to have a shot at #1 without giving up and draft capital to get there.
Also your confidence of the draft order would certainly change works... if we have a season. But this scenario is without one to back it up.
It’s hilarious you keep saying burrows and Lawrence. They obviously would not do that without a season to back it up. I know you’re upset they could trade down. But what makes you so sure they would do that?
What if another top defensive player is available like a chase young and they take him for immediate impact?
What makes you so sure any team is going to want to trade up if the college season is canceled? Historically every college player that has sat out a year has never panned out in the nfl. There’s going to be a lot of issues with next years draft class if a season doesn’t happen. There likely isn’t even 200 players worth drafting if they’ve all sat a year.
The only way I could get behind a type of lottery system is if you sectioned it off. Like say you only draw balls for the worst 5 teams until the top 5 is set. No one outside the top 5 can jump in and no one currently in the top 5 can have the risk of plummeting. Because as I said the other day you do a lottery where the bungles fall to 14 and you’ve just doomed burrows and the bungles for the next 5 years. Think it can’t happen? It just happened in the NBA or NHL I believe where a top 2 worst team plummeted to 10 in the lottery.
So maybe if you guarantee the bungles a top 5 pick but not necessarily the top pick that might could work. Then you section off teams 6-10, 11-15 and so on. Most people don’t even like the lottery in the nba and nhl and believe both are corrupt in favor of large market teams so it’s baffling anyone could get behind that idea for the biggest sport in the country.
I also feel like y’all didn’t pay that close attention to just how bad the bungles and redskins were if you really think two consecutive seasons of top two picks is going to instantly improve them any more than about 5-6 wins.
I just refuse to get behind any system that potentially allows a near playoff team like say the Steelers who probably only missed out due to big bens injury to have a shot at #1 without giving up and draft capital to get there.
Also your confidence of the draft order would certainly change works... if we have a season. But this scenario is without one to back it up.
First, not sure hilarious has anything to do with Burrow and Lawrence. It was a great example provided here my another member. Just an example, but a very possible one. with teams trading up big time to offer them a pot of gold to acquire Lawrence. But say there's a stud out there that they really want, it's still not fair to give them both Burrow and the stud, based on one bad season. Parity is all about balance, but parity should not be about lousy management. Sure, you could finish last 2 seasons in a row, but lets see it happen.
But lets go beyond The Bengals. I don't think any team should be assumed to be the same team, if no season is played. Like I mention, if a team had under or over achieved, that should only matter for one draft.
Regardless, it's just my opinion. I hope and expect we will play. But I thought this was an interesting topic, because there is a small chance there could be no season.
And believe me, creativity is what things are all about these days in sports. For example, The NHL just held their partial draft (given the season is far from over), just for the teams that will no longer play, if the season resumes. This year is so different. Seven teams out, 16 teams in mini pre playoff series, to see who plays the top 8 teams (as defined by the NHL playoff process). But this year, one of those 16 teams will get the #1 pick in hockey, because the process allowed for a team in that grouping to have a small chance to win the #1 pick, and it actually happened! And among those 16 teams are some really good teams. But if they lose a best of 5 series, which is very possible given the significant stoppage in play, they will have a 1 in 8 chance of landing the best player in the draft.
It's different, but it is what is happening given the unique situation we are in. And I think creativity would apply to The NFL if the season never happened, because it would be "unique" as well.
If the Bengals get the number one pick in 2021, it will be because they were the worst team in 2020, not 2019. They already got the fist pick for being the worst team in 2019.
So are you saying "no draft lottery" if no season, but that you only get the number one pick for the previous season?? Just what are we talking about? Maybe I missed a portion of this.
First, not sure hilarious has anything to do with Burrow and Lawrence. It was a great example provided here my another member. Just an example, but a very possible one. with teams trading up big time to offer them a pot of gold to acquire Lawrence. But say there's a stud out there that they really want, it's still not fair to give them both Burrow and the stud, based on one bad season. Parity is all about balance, but parity should not be about lousy management. Sure, you could finish last 2 seasons in a row, but lets see it happen.
But lets go beyond The Bengals. I don't think any team should be assumed to be the same team, if no season is played. Like I mention, if a team had under or over achieved, that should only matter for one draft.
Regardless, it's just my opinion. I hope and expect we will play. But I thought this was an interesting topic, because there is a small chance there could be no season.
And believe me, creativity is what things are all about these days in sports. For example, The NHL just held their partial draft (given the season is far from over), just for the teams that will no longer play, if the season resumes. This year is so different. Seven teams out, 16 teams in mini pre playoff series, to see who plays the top 8 teams (as defined by the NHL playoff process). But this year, one of those 16 teams will get the #1 pick in hockey, because the process allowed for a team in that grouping to have a small chance to win the #1 pick, and it actually happened! And among those 16 teams are some really good teams. But if they lose a best of 5 series, which is very possible given the significant stoppage in play, they will have a 1 in 8 chance of landing the best player in the draft.
It's different, but it is what is happening given the unique situation we are in. And I think creativity would apply to The NFL if the season never happened, because it would be "unique" as well.
I’m saying it’s silly to phrase it as getting both Burrows and Lawrence because they obviously would not also select Lawrence if burrows still hadn’t played a single down in the nfl. This is not like the Rosen and Murray situation.
Might as well just phrase it as burrows and either whoever else they select or whatever they trade down for to allow another team to draft Lawrence. They wouldn’t take both of those guys. This isn’t the nba where you would play both.
We obviously have to agree to disagree on this because we both seem to have a very different opinion on what would be “fair”.
Can you aren’t making any sense. If the Bungels don’t deserve the pick again without any evidence of deserving it then how can you possibly come up with any method to allow any other team or having it without a single game of evidence that they deserve it?
I’d rather cancel the draft than award someone the top pick for some completely arbitrary reason. At least as of the last time we actually watched football the Bungles were the worst team. You can’t just change how the NFL has always determined draft order without a single game played between this draft and next.
DB....sorry to debate. Obviously you can not cancel a draft year. College players have to go somewhere. So basically I think a weighted lottery makes sense, and you don't. Nothing silly or hilarious or whatever about it. We disagree. Lets leave it there. Odds are we will never have to learn about this the hard way.
I did not see your last post when I wrote this, but yes, lets leave it be. Some folks don't like when I "disagree", but I really don't care for my opinions to be labelled as silly and so on. If we are to be a good group here, lets disagree without unnecessary jabs. Silly, hilarious, aren't making any sense...don't bode well for good conversation, especially when the person's comments may turn out to be correct.
DB....sorry to debate. Obviously you can not cancel a draft year. College players have to go somewhere. So basically I think a weighted lottery makes sense, and you don't. Nothing silly or hilarious or whatever about it. We disagree. Lets leave it there. Odds are we will never have to learn about this the hard way.
I did not see your last post when I wrote this, but yes, lets leave it be. Some folks don't like when I "disagree", but I really don't care for my opinions to be labelled as silly and so on. If we are to be a good group here, lets disagree without unnecessary jabs. Silly, hilarious, aren't making any sense...don't bode well for good conversation, especially when the person's comments may turn out to be correct.
You're a pal....everything's cool. :thumb:
You know what Can. I don’t mean to belittle your opinion like that. But I do realize the words I’m choosing do that. I don’t mean to make excuses but it’s kind of just the childhood I had growing up with two brothers where a lot of our discussions came with that type of wording. It’s hard as an adult to get over bad habits. I often choose words without thinking about how the other person will take it.
It’s definitely an interesting topic and when I posed it to some of my group friends it definitely churned some interesting ideas. And right now I have 0 proof that my way is how it will be. It could end up as you suggest. And then I’d be the “silly one” thinking it has to be the normal way. We will see what happens and hopefully there is a season and this becomes a moot point.
I'll just call Goodell and tell him the show must go on lol. Maybe all the players should try and expose themselves now so they wont have to worry about it in couple months .
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