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Mid-Season Defensive Line Statistical Analysis 2005

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  • Mid-Season Defensive Line Statistical Analysis 2005

    Some of you may remember I did this same analysis at the end of last season. Here’s this season’s mid-way grades.


    Review:

    I assigned the following weights to key statistics:
    tackles = 0.5
    Passes Defended = 1
    Sacks = 2
    Tackles for loss = 2
    Forced Fumbles/Int = 3


    I went through each roster and totaled up all statistics for each defensive line for every team counting every player who lined up and made at least 1 play. I only took into account each team’s first 8 games. Thus, this is a mid-way analysis.

    I then multiplied those totals by the weighted formula above and totaled up for a pure point total. Which is the 1st ranking above. That ranks each team's defensive line only on pure statistics (impact points).

    I then calculated the total defensive snaps for every team in the NFL and divided those snaps into the point total listed above. The results were the modified percentage rankings above. These percentages are only useful for comparison purposes between the teams, so that they can be ranked. They do not mean any specific figure.

    The goal was to establish the productivity of the defensive lines for each team from last season and compare them. I could not compare 3-4 to 4-3 because I did not take the Linebackers into account as they would have corrupted the analysis.
    It is quite embarrassing to have a 3-4 Defensive line create more impact then a 4 man line though. And that occurred several times over in Denver’s case.


    Summary:

    The 1st ranking is the original D-line Production Summary (Impact Points)
    This includes tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, forced fumbles, and defended passes. With prospective weight modifiers of (0.5, 2, 2, 3, and 1) respectively.


    The 2nd ranking is the Modified Defensive Line Production adding to the already existing variables, the Total Defensive Snaps Taken unique to each team over the first 8 games. This is a key variable because it allows a modification to the ratings by comparing the % of impact plays versus number of chances to make such a play. (Divided total points, by number of defensive snaps). Again, this percentage is simply useful for ranking the teams in terms of overall defensive line productivity.



    Top 4-3 Defensive Lines (Impact Points)

    1. Colts – 200.5
    2. Packers – 151.5
    3. Saints – 150
    4. Titans – 149.5
    5. Jaguars – 144.5
    6. Lions – 142.5
    7. Dolphins – 138.5
    8. Cardinals – 138
    9. Raiders – 136
    10. Panthers – 134.5
    11. Jets – 133.5
    12. Falcons – 131.5
    13. Rams – 128.5
    14. Bears – 127.5
    15. Seahawks – 127
    16. Giants – 123.5
    17. Patriots – 120.5
    18. Chiefs – 114
    19. Bills – 109.5
    20. Ravens – 101.5
    21. Vikings – 101
    22. Eagles – 96
    23. Bucs – 92.5
    24. Redskins – 91
    25. Bengals – 90.5
    26. Broncos – 80

    Top 3-4 Defensive Lines (Impact Points)

    1. Cowboys – 91.5
    2. Texans – 90.5
    3. 49ers – 89.5
    4. Browns – 85
    5. Chargers – 65.5
    6. Steelers – 61.5










    Top 4-3 Defensive Lines (Modified, defensive snaps taken into account)

    1. Colts – 43.5%
    2. Titans – 33.2%
    3. Packers – 31.3%
    4. Saints – 31.2%
    5. Jaguars – 29.9%
    6. Cardinals – 29.4%
    7. Lions – 29.4%
    8. Falcons – 27.3%
    9. Panthers – 26.8%
    10. Raiders – 26.3%
    11. Dolphins – 25.7%
    12. Jets – 25.5%
    13. Bears – 25.5%
    14. Rams – 25.0%
    15. Seahawks – 24.8%
    16. Giants – 24.6%
    17. Bills – 23.7%
    18. Patriots – 23.4%
    19. Chiefs – 22.8%
    20. Bucs – 21.6%
    21. Ravens – 21.4%
    22. Vikings – 19.4%
    23. Redskins – 19.2%
    24. Eagles – 18.6%
    25. Bengals – 18.4%
    26. Broncos – 16.1%


    Top 3-4 Defensive Lines (Modified, Only 3 positions, rush LB is NOT included)

    1. Cowboys – 19.6%
    2. Texans – 18.7%
    3. Browns – 16.2%
    4. 49ers – 16.0%
    5. Chargers – 12.7%
    6. Steelers – 12.0%

  • #2
    4-3 Defensive Lines:

    AFC

    Baltimore Ravens – 137 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 5.5 stuffs, 1 forced fumble, 8 PDs137(.5) + 5.5(2) + 5.5(2) + 1(3) + 8(1) = 101.5
    101.5 / 474 = 21.4 %
    Terrell Suggs – 38, 2, 3, 1, 4
    Kelly Gregg – 31, 1.5, 1, 0, 2
    Maake Kemoeatu – 17, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Anthony Weaver – 14, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Jarrett Johnson – 14, 0, 1.5, 0, 1
    Dwan Edwards – 11, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Aubrayo Franklin – 9, 0, 0, 0, 1
    Roderick Green – 3, 2, 0, 0, 0

    Buffalo Bills – 117 tackles, 13 sacks, 6 stuffs, 2 forced fumbles, 7 PDs117(.5) + 13(2) + 6(2) + 2(3) + 7(1) = 109.5
    109.5 / 462 = 23.7%
    Aaron Schobel – 31, 5, 1, 1, 3
    Chris Kelsay – 21, 2.5, 0, 1, 3
    Ryan Denny – 17, 3, 0.5, 0, 1
    Sam Adams – 14, 1, 2, 0, 0
    Tim Anderson – 14, 1, 1, 0, 0
    Justin Bannan – 10, 0.5, 1.5, 0, 0
    Ron Edwards – 6, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Lauvale Sape – 4, 0, 0, 0, 0


    Cincinnati Bengals – 105 tackles, 6 sacks, 9 stuffs, 2 forced fumbles, 2 PDs105(.5) + 6(2) + 9(2) + 2(3) + 2(1) = 90.5
    90.5 / 491 = 18.4 %
    Justin Smith – 31, 2, 2, 1, 0
    John Thornton – 24, 0, 2, 1, 0
    Bryan Robinson – 13, 0, 1.5, 0, 0
    Robert Geathers – 14, 1, 0, 0, 1
    Carl Powell – 12, 1, 2.5, 0, 0
    Duane Clemons – 7, 2, 1, 0, 1
    Shaun Smith – 4, 0, 0, 0, 0

    Denver Broncos – 78 tackles, 5 sacks, 12 stuffs, 0 forced fumbles, 7 PDs78(.5) + 5(2) + 12(2) +0(3) +7(1) = 80
    80 / 496 = 16.1 %
    Trevor Pryce – 13, 1, 4, 0, 2
    Mike Myers – 12, 0, 1, 0, 1
    Ebenezor Ekuban – 11, 1, 0, 0, 2
    Courtney Brown – 10, 1, 2, 0, 1
    Demetrin Veal – 10, 1, 2, 0, 0
    Gerrard Warren – 9, 2, 1, 0, 0
    John Engleberger – 8, 0, 2, 0, 0
    Marco Coleman – 4, 0, 0, 0, 1
    Monsanto Pope – 1, 0, 0, 0, 0

    Indianapolis Colts – 145 tackles, 25.5 sacks, 14 stuffs, 14 forced fumbles, 7 PDs145(.5) + 25.5(2) + 14(2) + 14(3) + 7(1) = 200.5
    200.5 / 461 = 43.5%
    Robert Mathis – 28, 9, 3.5, 6, 1
    Corey Simon – 24, 0, 3, 1, 2
    Raheem Brock – 24, 4, 3, 3, 1
    Montae Reagor – 23, 3.5, 2.5, 0, 0
    Dwight Freeney – 20, 6, 3.5, 4, 2
    Larry Tripplett – 17, 2, 0, 0, 1
    Josh Thomas – 6, 1.5, 0, 0, 0
    Darrell Reid – 3, 0, 0.5, 0, 0

    Jacksonville Jaguars – 131 tackles, 15.5 sacks, 11.5 stuffs, 5 forced fumbles, 10 PDs131(.5) + 15.5(2) + 11.5(2) + 5(3) + 10(1) = 144.5
    144.5 / 484 = 29.9%
    John Henderson – 47, 0, 5, 0, 4
    Marcus Stroud – 22, 1, 2, 0, 1
    Paul Spicer – 21, 5.5, 1, 1, 1
    Reggie Hayward – 21, 5.5, 3.5, 2, 4
    Rob Meier – 11, 2, 0, 1, 0
    Bobby McCray – 5, 1.5, 0, 1, 0
    Marceillus Wiley – 4, 0, 0, 0, 0

    Kansas City Chiefs – 98 tackles, 8 sacks, 9 stuffs, 7 forced fumbles, 10 PDs98(.5) + 8(2) + 9(2) + 7(3) + 10(1) = 114
    114 / 500 = 22.8%
    Jared Allen – 32, 5, 3.5, 5, 3
    Eric Hicks – 28, 2, 3.5, 1, 2
    John Browning – 17, 1, 1.5, 0, 3
    Lional Dalton – 8, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Carlos Hall – 6, 0, 0.5, 1, 1
    Jimmy Wilkerson – 4, 0, 0, 0, 1
    Junior Siavii – 2, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Ryan Sims – 1, 0, 0, 0, 0

    Miami Dolphins – 141 tackles, 13 sacks, 12 stuffs, 2 forced fumbles, 12 PDs141(.5) + 13(2) + 12(2) + 2(3) + 12(1) = 138.5
    138.5 / 538 = 25.7%
    Jason Taylor – 40, 4, 4, 2, 5
    Kevin Carter – 24, 4, 3, 0, 2
    Vonnie Holiday – 23, 1, 1.5, 0, 1
    Keith Traylor – 20, 2, 2, 0, 1
    Jeff Zgonina – 17, 1, 1, 0, 2
    Matt Roth – 10, 0, 0.5, 0, 0
    David Bowens – 7, 1, 0, 0, 1

    New England Patriots – 161 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 9.5 stuffs, 1 forced fumble, 5 PDs161(.5) + 6.5(2) + 9.5(2) + 1(3) + 5(1) = 120.5
    120.5 / 516 = 23.4%
    Ty Warren – 37, 0, 0.5, 0, 1
    Willie McGinnest – 33, 2.5, 2.5, 0, 2
    Vince Wilfork – 31, 0.5, 1.5, 0, 0
    Jarvis Green – 23, 1.5, 2, 1, 0
    Richard Seymour – 22, 2, 3.5, 0, 2
    Mike Wright – 8, 0, 0.5, 0, 0
    Dan Klecko – 7, 0.5, 0, 0, 0

    New York Jets – 147 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 9 stuffs, 5 forced fumbles, 2 PDs147(.5) + 12.5(2) + 9(2) + 5(3) + 2(1) = 133.5
    133.5 / 530 = 25.5%
    John Abraham – 31, 5.5, 1, 3, 1
    Shaun Ellis – 29, 2.5, 3, 1, 0
    James Reed – 29, 0, 3, 0, 0
    DeWayne Robertson – 27, 3, 1, 1, 0
    Bryan Thomas – 19, 1.5, 0.5, 0, 1
    Lance Legree – 9, 0, 0.5, 0, 0
    Sione Pouha – 3, 0, 0, 0, 0

    Oakland Raiders – 138 tackles, 17 sacks, 6.5 stuffs, 4 forced fumbles, 8 PDs138(.5) + 17(2) + 6.5(2) + 4(3) + 8(1) = 136
    136 / 518 = 26.3%
    Ted Washington – 27, 0, 2, 0, 1
    Warren Sapp – 27, 5, 1.5, 1, 3
    Derrick Burgess – 23, 7, 0, 0, 0
    Bobby Hamilton – 19, 0, 0, 0, 3
    Tommy Kelly – 19, 3, 2, 2, 0
    Ed Jasper – 15, 1, 1, 0, 1
    Tyler Brayton – 7, 1, 0, 1, 0
    Terdell Sands – 1, 0, 0, 0, 0

    Tennessee Titans – 131 tackles, 19.5 sacks, 17.5 stuffs, 3 forced fumbles, 1 PD131(.5) + 19.5(2) + 17.5(2) + 3(3) + 1(1) = 149.5
    149.5 / 450 = 33.2%
    Kyle Vanden Bosch – 35, 7.5, 5, 1, 0
    Randy Starks – 22, 1.5, 4.5, 0, 0
    Albert Haynesworth – 18, 1, 2, 0, 1
    Antwan Odom – 16, 2, 1.5, 1, 0
    Rien Long – 13, 3.5, 0, 1, 0
    Travis Laboy – 12, 4, 0.5, 0, 0
    Jared Clauss – 13, 0, 2.5, 0, 0
    Bo Schobel – 2, 0, 1.5, 0, 0




    3-4 Defensive Lines

    AFC

    Cleveland Browns – 128 tackles, 3 sacks, 5.5 stuffs, 1 forced fumble, 1 PD128(.5) + 3(2) + 5.5(2) + 1(3) + 1(1) = 85
    85 / 525 = 16.2%
    Orpheus Roye – 52, 1, 4, 0, 1
    Alvin McKinley – 39, 2, 1.5, 1, 0
    Jason Fisk – 17, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Ethan Kelly – 12, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Nick Eason – 8, 0, 0, 0, 0

    Houston Texans – 111 tackles, 4 sacks, 9.5 stuffs, 1 forced fumble, 5 PDs111(.5) + 4(2) + 9.5(2) + 1(3) + 5(1) = 90.5
    90.5 / 484 = 18.7%
    Robaire Smith – 31, 0, 1, 0, 3
    Seth Payne – 28, 3, 1.5, 0, 0
    Gary Walker – 17, 2, 3, 1, 2
    Junior Ioane – 17, 0, 1, 0, 0
    Travis Johnson – 15, 1, 2.5, 0, 0
    Jerry DeLoach – 3, 0, 0.5, 0, 0

    Pittsburgh Steelers – 75 tackles, 4 sacks, 5.5 stuffs, 0 forced fumbles, 5 PDs75(.5) + 4(2) + 5.5(2) + 0(3) + 5(1) = 61.5
    61.5 / 511 = 12.0 %
    Casey Hampton – 26, 0, 2.5, 0, 0
    Aaron Smith – 15, 1, 2, 0, 1
    Kimo von Oelhoffen – 14, 1, 0, 0, 3
    Brett Keisel – 9, 1, 0, 0, 1
    Travis Kirschke – 6, 1, 0, 0, 0
    Chris Hoke – 5, 0, 1, 0, 0

    San Diego Chargers –75 tackles, 7 sacks, 4 stuffs, 0 forced fumbles, 6 PDs75(.5) + 7(2) + 4(2) +0(3) + 6(1) = 65.5
    65.5 / 516 = 12.7%
    Jamal Williams – 19, 0, 3, 0, 3
    Luis Castillo – 18, 1.5, 0, 0, 1
    Jacques Cesaire – 16, 1, 1, 0, 0
    Igor Olshansky – 13, 2, 0, 0, 0
    DeQuincy Scott – 8, 2.5, 0, 0, 2
    Dave Ball – 1, 0, 0, 0, 0

    Comment


    • #3
      4-3 Defensive Lines – NFC

      NFC

      Arizona Cardinals – 122 tackles, 13 sacks, 18 stuffs, 4 forced fumbles, 3 PDs122(.5) + 13(2) + 18(2) + 4(3) + 3(1) = 138
      138 / 470 = 29.4%
      Bertrand Berry – 34, 6, 3.5, 1, 1
      Chike Okeafor – 30, 3.5, 5, 1, 1
      Darnell Dockett – 22, 0.5, 2.5, 0, 1
      Calvin Pace – 11, 1, 2, 0, 0
      Ross Kolodzieg – 9, 1, 2, 1, 0
      Langston Moore – 9, 1, 1.5, 1, 0
      Russell Davis – 5, 0, 0, 0, 0
      Antonio Smith – 2, 0, 1.5, 0, 0

      Atlanta Falcons – 105 tackles, 18 sacks, 9.5 stuffs, 6 forced fumbles, 6 PDs105(.5) + 18(2) + 9.5(2) + 6(3) + 6(1) = 131.5
      131.5 / 481 = 27.3%
      Patrick Kerney – 21, 3.5, 1.5, 1, 0
      Rod Coleman – 21, 7, 0.5, 3, 3
      Chad Lavalais – 20, 1.5, 1.5, 0, 2
      Jon Babineaux – 10, 0, 2, 0, 0
      Brady Smith – 8, 3, 0, 1, 0
      Antwan Lake – 8, 1, 1, 1, 0
      Chauncey Davis – 7, 1, 2.5, 0, 0
      Junior Glymph – 5, 0, 0.5, 0, 0
      Darrell Shropshire – 5, 1, 0, 0, 1

      Carolina Panthers – 105 tackles, 14 sacks, 10.5 stuffs, 7 forced fumbles, 12 PDs105(.5) + 14(2) + 10.5(2) + 7(3) + 12(1) = 134.5
      134.5 / 501 = 26.8%
      Julius Peppers – 25, 3, 2, 1, 3
      Mike Rucker – 24, 6, 2.5, 3, 2
      Brentston Buckner – 19, 0, 3.5, 0, 1
      Jordan Carstens – 14, 2, 1, 1, 0
      Al Wallace – 11, 2, 0, 1, 2
      Kindal Moorehead – 9, 1, 1, 1, 3
      Kris Jenkins - 2, 0, 0.5, 0, 0
      Kemp Rasmussen – 1, 0, 0, 0, 1

      Chicago Bears – 107 tackles, 12 sacks, 17 stuffs, 2 forced fumbles, 10 PDs107(.5) + 12(2) + 17(2) + 2(3) + 10(1) = 127.5
      127.5 / 506 = 25.5%
      Adewale Ogunleye – 22, 4, 3.5, 1, 4
      Ian Scott – 20, 0, 7.5, 0, 5
      Alex Brown – 19, 1, 2, 0, 1
      Tank Johnson – 15, 3, 1, 0, 0
      Tommie Harris – 13, 2, 1, 1, 0
      Micheal Haynes – 7, 0.5, 1.5, 0, 0
      Isreal Idonije – 6, 1, 0.5, 0, 0
      Alfonso Boone – 5, 0.5, 0, 0, 0

      Detroit Lions – 123 tackles, 18 sacks, 14 stuffs, 4 forced fumbles, 5 PDs123(.5) + 18(2) + 14(2) + 4(3) + 5(1) = 142.5
      142.5 / 484 = 29.4%
      James Hall – 22, 2, 1.5, 1, 0
      Kalimba Edwards – 21, 6, 2.5, 2, 0
      Cory Redding – 19, 1, 3.5, 0, 2
      Shaun Cody – 17, 1.5, 2, 1, 0
      Shaun Rogers – 15, 2.5, 1, 0, 0
      Dan Wilkenson – 12, 2, 1.5, 0, 2
      Jared DeVries – 10, 3, 1, 0, 1
      Marcus Bell – 7, 0, 1, 0, 0

      Green Bay Packers – 163 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 16 stuffs, 3 forced fumbles, 4 PDs163(.5) + 12.5(2) + 16(2) + 3(3) + 4(1) = 151.5
      151.5 / 484 = 31.3%
      Aaron Kampman – 38, 2.5, 3.5, 0, 0
      Kabeer Gbaja-Biamilla – 28, 3.5, 2, 1, 0
      Grady Jackson – 25, 1, 4.5, 1, 2
      Colin Cole – 18, 1, 1, 0, 0
      Cullen Jenkins – 18, 0.5, 2.5, 0, 1
      Corey Williams – 17, 2, 1, 0, 0
      Kenny Peterson – 16, 2, 0, 1, 1
      Micheal Montgomery – 3, 0, 0, 0, 0

      Minnesota Vikings – 116 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 8 stuffs, 1 forced fumble, 5 PDs116(.5) + 9.5(2) + 8(2) + 1(3) + 5(1) = 101
      101 / 521 = 19.4%
      Pat Williams – 34, 1, 5, 1, 1
      Darrion Scott – 28, 1, 2, 0, 1
      Kevin Williams – 23, 1, 1, 0, 3
      Lance Johnstone – 9, 4.5, 0, 0, 0
      Spencer Johnson – 9, 0, 0, 0, 0
      Kenechi Udeze – 5, 1, 0, 0, 0
      Erasmus James – 5, 1, 0, 0, 0
      C.J. Mosely – 3, 0, 0, 0, 0

      New Orleans Saints – 154 tackles, 12 sacks, 14 stuffs, 4 forced fumbles, 9 PDs154(.5) + 12(2) + 14(2) + 4(3) + 9(1) = 150
      150 / 481 = 31.2%
      Brian Young – 26, 0, 5, 0, 0
      Darren Howard – 29, 3.5, 3.5, 2, 1
      Charles Grant – 29, 1.5, 2, 1, 1
      Will Smith – 29, 4, 1, 1, 2
      Willie Whitehead – 17, 0.5, 1, 0, 0
      Tony Bryant – 11, 2.5, 0.5, 0, 4
      John Sullavin – 13, 0, 1, 0, 1

      New York Giants – 123 tackles, 16.5 sacks, 10 stuffs, 1 forced fumble, 6 PDs123(.5) + 16.5(2) + 10(2) + 1(3) + 6(1) = 123.5
      123.5 / 523 = 23.6%
      Micheal Strahan – 39, 6.5, 4.5, 0, 0
      Osi Umenyiora – 29, 6, 1, 1, 3
      William Joseph – 15, 2, 0, 0, 3
      Justin Tuck – 13, 0, 1, 0, 0
      Kendrick Clancy – 12, 1, 2.5, 0, 0
      Kenderick Allen – 8, 1, 0, 0, 0
      Fred Robbins – 7, 0, 1, 0, 0

      Philadelphia Eagles – 92 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 8 stuffs, 3 forced fumbles, 6 PDs92(.5) + 9.5(2) + 8(2) + 3(3) + 6(1) = 96
      96 / 515 = 18.6%
      Hollis Thomas – 25, 0, 1, 0, 1
      N.D. Kalu – 21, 1, 2.5, 0, 1
      Mike Patterson – 18, 2, 3, 1, 0
      Jevon Kearse – 14, 4, 0, 1, 4
      Darwin Walker – 12, 2.5, 1, 1, 0
      Paul Grasmanis – 1, 0, 0, 0, 0
      Keyonta Marshall – 1, 0, 0.5, 0, 0

      Seattle Seahawks – 130 tackles, 18.5 sacks, 7.5 stuffs, 0 forced fumbles, 10 PDs130(.5) + 18.5(2) + 7.5(2) + 0(3) + 10(1) = 127
      127 / 513 = 24.8%
      Bryce Fisher – 30, 6.5, 1.5, 0, 3
      Grant Wistrom – 25, 2, 1, 0, 3
      Marcus Tubbs – 24, 1.5, 0.5, 0, 1
      Rocky Bernard – 23, 4.5, 3, 0, 0
      Chartric Darby – 19, 2.5, 1.5, 0, 0
      Craig Terrill – 6, 1.5, 0, 0, 2
      Joe Tafoya – 3, 0, 0, 0, 1

      St. Louis Rams – 127 tackles, 14 sacks, 13 stuffs, 1 forced fumble, 8 PDs127(.5) + 14(2) + 13(2) + 1(3) + 8(1) = 128.5
      128.5 / 514 = 25.0%
      Ryan Pickett – 31, 1, 1.5, 0, 1
      Jimmy Kennedy – 23, 3, 1.5, 1, 1
      Anthony Hargrove – 22, 2, 1.5, 0, 2
      Leonard Little – 20, 4, 0.5, 2, 2
      Brandon Green – 11, 2, 2, 0, 1
      Damione Lewis – 10, 0, 5, 0, 1
      Tyoka Jackson – 8, 2, 1, 0, 0
      Brain Howard – 2, 0, 0, 0, 0

      Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 83 tackles, 10 sacks, 8.5 stuffs, 3 forced fumbles, 5 PDs83(.5) + 10(2) + 8.5(2) + 3(3) + 5(1) = 92.5
      92.5 / 428 = 21.6%
      Greg Spires – 19, 2, 2, 1, 1
      Simeon Rice – 18, 5, 2, 2, 1
      Chris Hovan – 16, 0, 1.5, 0, 1
      Dewayne White – 16, 2, 2, 0, 2
      Anthony McFarland – 10, 1, 1, 0, 0
      Ellis Wyms – 3, 0, 0, 0, 0
      Anthony Bryant – 1, 0, 0, 0, 0

      Washington Redskins – 106 tackles, 6 sacks, 9 stuffs, 1 forced fumble, 5 PDs106(.5) + 6(2) + 9(2) + 1(3) + 5(1) = 91
      91 / 473 = 19.2%
      Cornelious Griffin – 24, 3, 2, 1, 0
      Phillip Daniels – 22, 1, 2, 0, 4
      Renaldo Wynn – 18, 0, 2, 0, 0
      Joe Saleve’a – 14, 0, 1, 0, 0
      Demeteric Evans – 14, 2, 0, 0, 1
      Cedric Killings – 8, 0, 1, 0, 0
      Ryan Boschetti – 5, 0, 0, 0, 0
      Aki Jones – 1, 0, 1, 0, 0


      3-4 NFC Defensive Lines

      NFC

      Dallas Cowboys – 92 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 6.5 stuffs, 1 forced fumble, 6 PDs92(.5) + 11.5(2) + 6.5(2) + 1(3) + 6(1) = 91
      91 / 465 = 19.6%
      Greg Ellis – 19, 5, 1, 0, 4
      Chris Canty – 18, 1.5, 2, 0, 0
      La’Roi Glover – 15, 3, 1, 1, 0
      Jason Ferguson – 13, 0, 2, 0, 1
      Marcus Spears – 13, 0.5, 0, 0, 1
      Kenyon Coleman – 10, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 0
      Jay Ratliff – 4, 1, 0, 0, 0

      San Francisco 49ers – 87 tackles, 11 sacks, 3.5 stuffs, 4 forced fumbles, 5 PDs87(.5) + 11(2) + 3.5(2) + 4(3) + 5(1) = 89.5
      89.5 / 560 = 16.0 %
      Marques Douglas – 25, 1, 1, 1, 1
      Bryant Young – 23, 8, 0.5, 2, 1
      Anthony Adams – 18, 2, 1, 0, 1
      Isaac Sopoaga – 12, 0, 0, 0, 0
      Travis Hall – 8, 0, 1, 1, 1
      Corey Smith – 1, 0, 0, 0, 1

      Comment


      • #4
        your crazy
        sigpic
        DROY

        Mile High Manning Fivehead Bandwagon #98

        Comment


        • #5
          That took some time to develop

          You can tell we love football........Broncos especially.........we spend our time finding and creating some nice post. U sure love football MUG.


          I deleted my first post so you could keep these two post together......really a time consuming job. Nice job of contributing.
          Last edited by Emancipator; 11-11-2005, 08:15 AM.
          Emancipate your mind!
          The People's Poster

          Comment


          • #6
            Here's the only stat that matters to me. The 2005 Broncos D-Line ranks #1 in the "Patrick's favorite Denver defensive lines since 2000" poll.


            My adopted Bronco is Chris Kuper. Huzzah!

            I am the raid leader for this World of Warcraft guild. Yay us!

            Comment


            • #7
              M.U.G.- what basis did you use to weight tackles versus sacks and tackles for loss? I think that I would have tried to include QB pressures, if the DL had freed the LB for a tackle, and possibly screen passes diverted (I know that you can't get this without video) to get a true picture. I appreciate your effort but I am not sure exactly what significance it has.

              There are still factors that contribute to a defense's success that weren't measured. Maybe they can't be objectively, quantitatively measured. Things like obstructing the QB's view would be impossible to measure but highly important.

              Comment


              • #8
                Another stat that you left out which is HUGE...

                Number of times held on a pass play with no call by the official

                Factor that in, then maybe I could look on this with credibility.

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                • #9
                  I tried to resist saying anything but I can't. Props to MUG for taking the time to set up the analysisBUT that is the point its his analysis not the one used by the League. That being said MUG has already stated in two different threads that he thinks the Broncos are terrible, so his analysis has a built in bias from the start. In other words, anyone can set up their own analysis weight it according to their own prefernces and then presto chango their statements are correct according to their own how they make the analysis.

                  Once again let me say its obvious he put some serious thought into this system and I commend him for that. But it still is what it is IMHO its his system which hasn't been subject to peer review of a third party.
                  Last edited by TXBRONC; 11-11-2005, 07:35 AM.
                  John 11: 25-27

                  My Adopt-A-Bronco is D.J. Williams



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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Dean
                    M.U.G.- what basis did you use to weight tackles versus sacks and tackles for loss? I think that I would have tried to include QB pressures, if the DL had freed the LB for a tackle, and possibly screen passes diverted (I know that you can't get this without video) to get a true picture. I appreciate your effort but I am not sure exactly what significance it has.

                    There are still factors that contribute to a defense's success that weren't measured. Maybe they can't be objectively, quantitatively measured. Things like obstructing the QB's view would be impossible to measure but highly important.

                    Degree of impact.

                    A turnover > sack = stuff > deflected pass > tackle.

                    I do not believe anyone will dispute that.



                    While, QB pressures would be an interesting stat, there is no way to quantify that. You could pressure a QB and he could still complete a 50 yard bomb for a TD,which would render the QB pressure completely useless.

                    Each of the weighted factors are an end to the play, and therefore completely objective. QB pressures and their subjective impact on a still forming play have no basis for inclusion in a statistical analysis, which is why the NFL does not recognize them as official stats.

                    I use official stats.

                    The impact of a pressure is 1) unquantifiable, and 2) it is not an end to the play. That's like trying to give a CB points for holding his coverage so a lineman can get a sack. You can't do it, even if you'd like to. On a team *grade*, yes, trying to objectively qualify each defense, no.

                    Screen passes diverted are generally not always covered by the D-line, a safety, CB, or more often a shadowing LB, are as likely to disrupt the play as a lineman. If the lineman deflects the pass, which is included, they get credit. If they tackle the screen catcher behind the line, they get a stuff, and thus credit. If they run down the screen catcher, they get a tackle, and thus, credit. It's covered the best it can be.


                    The point of the analysis is production and impact plays comparing the D-lines from around the NFL. All 32 teams are on equal grading terms, consisting of the key stats that are ends to a play and thus quantifiable.

                    If you'd like to hold out opinion due to your other factors that's fine. In terms of sacks, forced fumbles, passes defensed, tackles, and stuffs, with total number of defensive snaps taken into account, the Denver Broncos are the least productive 4-3 D-line in the NFL by a wide margin.

                    I don't think that surprises anybody that *objectively* follows the team. Our D-line was the worst 4-3 D-line in the NFL last season as well in terms of the same criteria, judging productivity and plays ended.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by TXBRONC
                      I tried to resist saying anything but I can't. Props to MUG for taking the time to set BUT that is the point its his analysis not the one used by the League. That being said MUG has already stated in two different threads that he thinks the Broncos are terrible, so his analysis has a built in bias from the start. In other words, anyone can set up their own analysis weight it according to their own prefernces and then presto chango their statements are correct according to their own how they make the analysis.

                      Once again let me say its obvious he put some serious thought into this system and I commend him for that. But it still is what it is IMHO its his system which hasn't been subject to peer review of a third party.

                      There's absolutely no bias here. Every team is graded the same.

                      Try and find bias. Feel free to argue why any of my factors are "mis-weighted".

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Very well thought out analysis MUG... and I don't even want to know how much time it took you.

                        I'm not going to argue with your analysis because all it says is that statistically, our Dline isn't doing very much. You're right.
                        Thanks, Reid!
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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by DeuceOfClub
                          Very interesting, the only thing missing IMO is how does the D-line stat (or impact) stands in comparison to the rest of the defense. And how will those impact points look from the offensive side (against a D-line)

                          Thank you.
                          Ill do a complete breakdown after the season (D-line) v. (LBs) v. (Secondary).

                          I'm very interested to see which of those 3 categories the top teams in the NFL excel in. However, time keeps me from doing the complete analysis for the midseason. It's fun, but tedious.

                          I'll have to gather some thoughts on the best way to weigh the statistics for those areas.

                          (LB)s can probably use the same formula with INTs tossed in, but I think tackles should be a higher weight so I'm inclined to raise that from .5 to 1. Tackles are a much more significant statistic for LBs then the D-line.

                          The (Secondary) seems to me would require significant weighing changes. Interceptions would be greatly increased in value to 5, forced fumbles can stay at 3, sacks would be increased to 2.5, stuffs and passes defended would be 2, and tackles would drop to .75. The thinking here is that INTs are the measure of a good secondary, passes defended are as important a stoppage as a stuff, but neither as important as a sack (this rewards blitzing safeties such as Lynch), and tackles are not quite as important as for LBs, though still important enough so that safeties with high numbers will be rewarded.


                          So, I'm pretty happy with that formula. If anyone objects or has suggestions with solid backing, I'll be happy to listen.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mat'hir Uth Gan
                            Some of you may remember I did this same analysis at the end of last season. Here’s this season’s mid-way grades.


                            Review:

                            I assigned the following weights to key statistics:
                            tackles = 0.5
                            Passes Defended = 1
                            Sacks = 2
                            Tackles for loss = 2
                            Forced Fumbles/Int = 3
                            Hey, Mat'hir. Last year you used the following weighting:

                            "Total them up, give a little more weight to sacks (1.5), tackles (1.0), tackles for loss (2.0), forced fumbles/Ints (2.0), and pressures (1.0)."

                            So, you increased your weighting on sacks which is where our line has obviously struggled the most and actually decreased from last year. And then you got rid of pressures entirely which is where, as of the Giants game according to Long's sources, the Broncos were actually leading the league.

                            And you claim to not be skewing the data? It sounds like pressures were inconvenient to your bashing of our defensive line and so you decided this year that they were unacceptable criteria.

                            Also, in the tackle department, the defensive line gets most of their tackles in the running game and very few by tackling receivers. But the Broncos are the least run against team in the NFL this year. And that would lead to both tackles and TFL being harder to come by for our defensive line.

                            Your criteria is very subjective and does not put the stats in the proper context. Stats, as you know, can easily be manipulated to reinforce your arguments. And your argument has always been heavily against our defensive line.

                            While I agree our defensive line has not been incredible. I believe they are far from the worst as your biased... I mean "weighted" data would seem to indicate.
                            "You can't take the sky from me..."
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                            Comment


                            • #15
                              You lost me when you said that pressure on the quarterback doesn't matter. What if the pressure leads to an incomplete pass? How about an interception? Have you noticed that we are #3 in opposing team completion percentage? Don't you think that the amount of pressure we get on the quarterback has something to do with that? Do you realize that we have more passes thrown on us per game (39) than ANY other team?

                              I realise it's hard to find a stat somewhere for quarterback pressures, but to simply waive them off because then your formula wouldn't show that Denver has the worst D-Line is ridiculous.

                              Also, any formula for the defensive line should also include rushing defense.. I guess having the #3 rush defense in the NFL means we have the WORST defensive line in football.


                              Kudos to you for spending the time to do this, but it looks pretty irrelevant to me.

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