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While we certainly understand the frustration by fans on all sides of the discussion, we have decided to keep the Broncos Country message boards separate from politics. Recent events have brought the NFL to the forefront of political debates, but due to the highly emotional and passionate discussion it tends to involve, we think it’s best to continue to keep politics and this forum separate. Yes, the forum is meant for discussion, but we’d like to keep that discussion to football as much as possible.
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Bill Moore / FootballOutsiders.com
Posted: 4 hours ago
Attention K-Mart shoppers! Bargain in aisle five. Please check for your favorite defensive back.
A couple of weeks ago, we tackled the subject of the most overpaid NFL players. Of course, the concept of being overpaid in the NFL isn't quite like the concept of being overpaid in other sports with guaranteed contracts. Management can easily dispose of contracts they view as too burdensome. They may have to take a one-year salary-cap penalty, but they don't have to pay the remaining salary. Oh, how the Detroit Tigers would have loved to shed Bobby Higginson's $35 million contract years ago.
Therefore, if someone like Charles Woodson makes $10.5 million, it is because someone thinks he deserves it; and that someone is certainly not one of us. But an underpaid player won't get more money even if everyone thinks he deserves it, unless he holds out and makes enough of a nuisance of himself. It is a biased economic system, but it works better than the economic systems of the other major U.S. sports.
Brian Westbrook was once a bargain for the Philadelphia Eagles, who rewarded him recently with a five-year contract worth $25 million. (Streeter Lecka / Getty Images)
Unlike baseball, every dollar spent by a team is a dollar less to spend elsewhere. For example, in 2004, teams spent an average of 8.6 percent of their salary cap on their quarterback position. The Indianapolis Colts spent 13.5 percent of their cap space on quarterbacks. That is not necessarily money ill-spent since their No. 1 quarterback had one of the greatest passing seasons of all time. But it does mean that the Colts have to find bargains in other areas to compensate for the cap space taken up by Mr. Manning.
To judge the best bargains, I used the advanced statistics we use at FootballOutsiders.com. The basic introduction: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is a statistic that compares a player's performance to the average performance of players in similar situations, and DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) is a statistic that compares the performance of each player to a baseline, when adjusted for opponent defensive quality. You can find a more detailed description of our methods here. I also used various rankings by position found across the Internet, including the FOXSports.com Fantasy Football Draft Guide.
As such, the non-skill players are more subjective than their offensive skill counterparts.
This list must be onto something because it has gone through three rewrites since we started working on it two weeks ago. Three different players who were originally on the list signed new contracts between rough draft and publication. First, Terrence McGee signed an $18 million deal through 2009. McGee was previously earning close to the rookie minimum despite his impact on both the Buffalo secondary and special teams.
And then came Brian Westbrook, who originally ranked third on this list, as a $524,000 cap value in 2004 and $1.4 million in 2005 made him one of the cheapest running backs around. Yet, the Eagles beat us to the punch and have agreed in principal to a five-year deal worth $25 million, putting Westbrook's salary in line with those of LaMont Jordan and Rudi Johnson.
Finally, Arizona signed Neil Rackers to a four-year extension a few days ago (with no specifics announced). Rackers was the best kicker in the NFL last year when it came to kickoffs, eighth when it came to field goals but 24th when it came to bringing home money.
It's nice to see these guys get paid, but there are others left:
6. RB Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos
2004: $535k salary; $790k cap value (Anderson)
$230k salary; $611k cap value (Bell)
2005: $540k salary; $795k estimated cap value (Anderson)
$305k salary; $688k cap value (Bell)
Denver is known for a highly effective offensive line and shells out big bucks to maintain that reputation. No team in the league spends a higher percentage of its overall salary cap on the offensive line than the Broncos (26 percent in 2004). Year after year, the Broncos compensate for this with an ability to get the most out of their running backs, who are efficient both as playmakers and as budget line items. A fair amount of credit needs to go to the five guys in the trenches, but the 1-2 combination of Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson has been absurdly effective this year. In fact, both are on pace to gain more than 1,000 yards.
Anderson, who didn't play last year due to injury, is seventh in the league in DPAR. With a cap value of less than $800,000, he's the lowest-paid player in the top 10. Bell, a rookie last year, ranked 19th in DPAR — despite having only 75 carries. According to our metrics, 14 different running backs had at least 300 carries and were still not as valuable as Bell. But Denver only had to pay him $230,000 in salary with a cap cost that included $381,000 pro-rated from his $1.72 million rookie signing bonus.
This year, Bell is averaging seven yards per carry, although he's only 16th in DPAR because he has a lot of short runs to go with those highlight-reel touchdowns. How much is he costing Denver? Only $75,000 more than last year. As a pair, Bell and Anderson make about as much combined as T.J. Duckett. Anderson, who signed a four- year extension to his existing contract in 2001, could see a $2 million pay raise in '06. Bell, on the other hand, is still operating under his rookie contract and is signed through '08.
But there is more to the story.
1. QB Jake Plummer, Denver Broncos
2004: $660k salary; $1.7 million cap value
2005: $665k salary; $1.7 million estimated cap value
In 2003, Mike Shanahan needed a new centerpiece for his offense following the demise of the Bob, I mean, the Brian Griese Project. He signed Plummer to a seven-year, $40 million contract. Plummer has not been one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks since joining the Broncos, but he has been consistently good despite a few bone-headed flashbacks to his Arizona days. In 2004, Plummer ranked 11th in DPAR among quarterbacks, but was ranked an embarrassing 32nd in pay. That pay ranked him in line with stalwarts Patrick Ramsey and Kyle Boller. The average pay for the 10 quarterbacks above Plummer was $5 million, and Matt Hasselbeck, one spot below in our DPAR rankings, earned almost $4 million more.
So far in 2005, Plummer is playing the best football of his career. After Denver's offensive explosion against Philadelphia, he ranks fourth in DPAR, with only Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning ahead of him. Plummer has 12 touchdowns this year against just three interceptions.
Plummer's transition from pauper to prince could come next year. His salary is due to jump from $665,000 to $4.3 million. Plummer will need to continue avoiding bad decisions and probably needs to take the Broncos somewhere in the playoffs this year to deserve that kind of cash.
Actually Jake redid his contract last season, to help out with the salary cap. It cost him alot of money in the short term, but over the next few years he'll make a fair amount, without to much impact on the cap. Team player indeed. I think running backs in Denver have to be careful about their contract requests. They should be paid a fair amount because they will always be successful on the team, but dont push their luck to far as chances are elsewhere they wont have nearly as much success.
"On a given day, a given circumstance, you think you have a limit. And you then go for this limit and you touch this limit, and you think, 'Okay, this is the limit'. And so you touch this limit, something happens and you suddenly can go a little bit further. With your mind power, your determination, your instinct, and the experience as well, you can fly very high."
Ayrton Senna..
WTM, all this time I thought you were smart ( ). Shhhhhhhhhhhhh don't tell Jake and AnderBell cause we'd like to keep them under the current contracts.
Seriously, I think Bell will get a new contract. I think his rookie contract ends this season right or wrong? I'm not sure.
WTM, all this time I thought you were smart ( ). Shhhhhhhhhhhhh don't tell Jake and AnderBell cause we'd like to keep them under the current contracts.
Seriously, I think Bell will get a new contract. I think his rookie contract ends this season right or wrong? I'm not sure.
I dont think it does. He either inked a three or four year deal.
TXBRonc.........congrats on getting your 7,000 post.......that is alot of work. As my wife may say........I better not be getting 7,000 post anytime soon.
WTM, all this time I thought you were smart ( ). Shhhhhhhhhhhhh don't tell Jake and AnderBell cause we'd like to keep them under the current contracts.
Seriously, I think Bell will get a new contract. I think his rookie contract ends this season right or wrong? I'm not sure.
The answer to your question is in the post.
Bell, on the other hand, is still operating under his rookie contract and is signed through '08.
Bell, on the other hand, is still operating under his rookie contract and is signed through '08.
I hope we don't have another Portis issue. I know that rookie contract won't do him justice until a new contract in 2008. I'm calling Drew Rosenhause (just kidding, I don't want any hate email or pms ), but I did cause your eyes to go and when I said I'm calling Drew for Tatum.
WTM, all this time I thought you were smart ( ). Shhhhhhhhhhhhh don't tell Jake and AnderBell cause we'd like to keep them under the current contracts.
Seriously, I think Bell will get a new contract. I think his rookie contract ends this season right or wrong? I'm not sure.
2009 I believe is the end of his contract. I read that somewhere. NO doubt that Mikey will revisit it if he becomes a complete back, you know stud buffalo that Mikey likes so much.
And is interested in making it a cap friendly contract. If not he becomes trade bait, Hmm is there another Champ out there someplace.
Actually Jake redid his contract last season, to help out with the salary cap. It cost him alot of money in the short term, but over the next few years he'll make a fair amount, without to much impact on the cap. Team player indeed. I think running backs in Denver have to be careful about their contract requests. They should be paid a fair amount because they will always be successful on the team, but dont push their luck to far as chances are elsewhere they wont have nearly as much success.
Can someone tell TO that THIS is what they mean by TEAM PLAYER!
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