Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Denver 0.1% worse than Indy

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Denver 0.1% worse than Indy

    Just noticed that Football Outsiders ranks Indy #1 with a rating of 36.6%, and Denver #2 with a rating of 36.5%. For all the folks who don't even mention Denver when discussing possible Superbowl scenarios.

    Oh yeah. New England is 15th (last year they finished the season 1st). Still scared to play them?
    "Pey-Pey to Bay-Bay for the Tay Day!!"

    sigpic

  • #2
    Hey Lomax...When are you going to be making "Weekend at Bernies III???"

    Comment


    • #3
      To be fair, the argument that New England is a threat is based on the idea that they've improved over the year because they have not been as injured. The footballoutsiders rankings don't take this idea into account. Still, their pass defense has been pretty bad, so there are teams that I'd like to face less than them. Especially when you consider the offenses that they've faced. They've faced the Jets twice, Miami twice, and the Bills twice in their own division. And Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Carolina in the NFC South. Along with that, they faced Pittsburgh. Not the best passing teams are they. They also had to face Indy, the Raiders, KC and San Diego, but those teams don't make up for the weak passing offenses they've faced, so their low statistical rankings in pass defense mean a lot. It means that even against bad passing teams, they've given up big passing yardage. After all, they are ranked 30th in yards per attempt. They are also ranked 4th in passing percentage allowed. What that means is that they give up tons of big plays.
      My adopted fan is dogfish

      . . . . . . . . . . .
      . Post Your Artwork .
      . . . . . . . . . . .

      Comment


      • #4
        I think the REAL Super Bowl just might be Denver @ Indianapolis. This time I think it's gonna be an actual game...but it all matters on if the Colts can win their division game.

        Comment


        • #5
          Never was scared to play them in the first place!!

          Bring em on!!

          Comment


          • #6
            Well . . .

            Originally posted by Lomax
            Just noticed that Football Outsiders ranks Indy #1 with a rating of 36.6%, and Denver #2 with a rating of 36.5%. For all the folks who don't even mention Denver when discussing possible Superbowl scenarios.

            Oh yeah. New England is 15th (last year they finished the season 1st). Still scared to play them?
            Unfortunately, if we end up playing the Pats, it won't be at Football Outsiders. Moreover, I don't envision Tedy & Co. giving a rat's behind about what they say or where they rank them. The only thing I'm counting on is that Denver is a better home team than NE is a road team (IMO), for which reason I'm glad that contest would take place at Invesco.

            Regarding Indy, I believe Denver is the more balanced team. Problem is, part of Indy's imbalance comes in the form of Peyton Manning, augmented by the likes of Harrison and Wayne. Come the opportunity to again go to Indy, I direly hope the Broncos can mount a pass rush like they've never had before.

            -----

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by topscribe
              Unfortunately, if we end up playing the Pats, it won't be at Football Outsiders. Moreover, I don't envision Tedy & Co. giving a rat's behind about what they say or where they rank them. The only thing I'm counting on is that Denver is a better home team than NE is a road team (IMO), for which reason I'm glad that contest would take place at Invesco.
              I'm not saying it will. What I am saying is that the Pats haven't proven anything in the last six games in their wins over the Jets twice, Buffalo once, and their win over TB is only offset by the loss to Miami. The assertion that they're somehow back to being the same team that won the SB last season is ludicrous. With an easy schedule, they barely managed double-digit wins, and it's clear to anyone that the only reason they're even IN the playoffs is because Buffalo, Miami, and NYJ suck this season (though next season Miami will likely give them a run for their money).

              Regarding Indy, I believe Denver is the more balanced team. Problem is, part of Indy's imbalance comes in the form of Peyton Manning, augmented by the likes of Harrison and Wayne. Come the opportunity to again go to Indy, I direly hope the Broncos can mount a pass rush like they've never had before.

              -----
              There's too much skill on a man for man basis to square up and beat that offense. You have to beat Manning to beat them. I guess that's what you're trying to say. If he's allowed to get into a rhythm, it would be a long day. He's not perfect, and it's important that we learn from teams that have caused him problems like SD, Jax, Pitts to figure out a way to beat him.

              That said, I don't think Indy has anyone who can man up with Rod Smith, and I think Lelie would have a good day against them too. I think our OL and mobile passing game neutralizes the small, quick DL, and if we make the Indy safeties back off the run, I think we'll have HUGE running lanes and will have a big offensive day.

              All in all, this season the Broncos are greater than the sum of their parts, and will win a matchup against Indy (if it comes to pass) because this defense not only doesn't lose focus like the defenses of the past, but routinely capitalizes on the opposing offense's mistakes. We won't give up 30 in the first half as has been the case previously, and this offense, with a sense of urgency, will put up points in a hurry and shut down the crowd for much of the game. But for now, we should be satisfied to be 0.1% worse than the league's best team. It won't be the case for long.
              "Pey-Pey to Bay-Bay for the Tay Day!!"

              sigpic

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Archimedes Owl
                To be fair, the argument that New England is a threat is based on the idea that they've improved over the year because they have not been as injured. The footballoutsiders rankings don't take this idea into account.
                Actually, the "Weighted DVOA" favors the more recent games. In "Weighted DVOA", New England is ranked 13th. Denver is ranked 1st. I think what you said is exactly the case. New England's passing offense is great. Their rushing offense is mediocre. Their rush defense is mediocre. And their pass defense is atrocious. There's really no two ways about it. New England has essentially swapped places with Indy from a few years ago. They're a great passing team that doesn't offer much else.
                "Pey-Pey to Bay-Bay for the Tay Day!!"

                sigpic

                Comment


                • #9
                  At this point Indy has the better team. They have a slightly better record and thats all that matters. They've owned us in the playoffs more than once in recent years. We have to PROVE that we are better at this point.

                  It is clear to me that Shanny has been building a team to beat the Colts ever since that first playoff loss to them. The week before we lost that game we destroyed them so he saw how to do it and all the moves he's been making in the offseason since then have been to make it more likely that we can pull that off again. Are we there yet.... that remains to be seen.

                  Bottom line is that the Colts look strong this year... very very strong. We look really strong too but the Colts are the team to beat and until we beat them I'm not positive that we can. Blindly saying that we will destroy anyone in the post season isn't what makes you a Broncos fan... what makes a fan is WANTING your team to do it. You can still be realistic about the chances and every player on the team will tell you that until we do it we can't talk ANY smack about it.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Lomax
                    Just noticed that Football Outsiders ranks Indy #1 with a rating of 36.6%, and Denver #2 with a rating of 36.5%. For all the folks who don't even mention Denver when discussing possible Superbowl scenarios.

                    Oh yeah. New England is 15th (last year they finished the season 1st). Still scared to play them?
                    yes.......

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      We are #1 in the weighted DVOA.
                      Where does the abuse of end? Where?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Lomax
                        Actually, the "Weighted DVOA" favors the more recent games. In "Weighted DVOA", New England is ranked 13th. Denver is ranked 1st. I think what you said is exactly the case. New England's passing offense is great. Their rushing offense is mediocre. Their rush defense is mediocre. And their pass defense is atrocious. There's really no two ways about it. New England has essentially swapped places with Indy from a few years ago. They're a great passing team that doesn't offer much else.
                        You're right about the weighted DVOA treating the most recent games as the most important, but they still take a pretty long term approach. They weight the last eight games of the season equally and then scale it down over four game intervals. The last eight games are still half of the season and New England hasn't appeared to be getting it together til more recently than that. Still, it's not like they instantly improved when Bruschi came back. They still got their asses handed to them by the chiefs. And have only dominated one quality team of late (The Bucs).

                        Anyway, the fact that they have been pathetic in the passing game with a schedule like theirs (You know against few passing teams), suggests that they should have problems with that facet of that game in the playoffs.

                        Lucky for them, Jacksonville's strength isnt' their passing game.
                        My adopted fan is dogfish

                        . . . . . . . . . . .
                        . Post Your Artwork .
                        . . . . . . . . . . .

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Plastique
                          Blindly saying that we will destroy anyone in the post season isn't what makes you a Broncos fan... what makes a fan is WANTING your team to do it. You can still be realistic about the chances and every player on the team will tell you that until we do it we can't talk ANY smack about it.
                          I agree. Fortunately, I'm not blindly saying we will destroy anyone. I didn't even say we'll "destroy" the Colts. But I do believe that DVOA is right in that this year's team should be favored against any team we meet besides the Colts, up to and including the Super Bowl, and that we're not only good enough to beat the Colts this year, we're almost in an even heat statistically. That's not smack. I acknowledge that being good enough to do something and actually doing it are two different things.
                          "Pey-Pey to Bay-Bay for the Tay Day!!"

                          sigpic

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Lomax
                            Just noticed that Football Outsiders ranks Indy #1 with a rating of 36.6%, and Denver #2 with a rating of 36.5%. For all the folks who don't even mention Denver when discussing possible Superbowl scenarios.

                            Oh yeah. New England is 15th (last year they finished the season 1st). Still scared to play them?
                            Remember also that football outsiders stats are based entirely on a series of numbers and that the Patriots played without the majority of their starters through the entire middle section of the season and are only now getting healthy again. The team that put up the stats that get that ranking are not the team you will see on the field in the playoffs.

                            On top of that a number of sportswriters are putting in Tom Brady's name for MVP, since for the majority of the season, Brady carried that team on his shoulders and it's a testament to his abilities that they are even in the playoffs.

                            Still feel like dismissing them?

                            On the plus side, the Colts are rated number one because of the same trap. In their place, they played what may well be the easiest schedule in the NFL and one of the easiest schedules in the NFL in the past several years. Their defensive stats are built by pushing around the weakest offensive teams in the entire league while other teams like the Broncos built their record by beating teams with winning records.
                            You Tell 'em Justice is coming. You tell 'em I'M coming!sigpic

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Well, their first half schedule was one of the easiest since they started doing DVOA rankings, but their second half schedule was a bit more difficult. They ended up playing New England, Pittsburgh, Cincy, San Diego, Seattle and Jacksonville in the second half.

                              If I remember correctly, that makes their schedule this year the fifth easiest.

                              A good example of a team with an even easier schedule is Seattle. They played the NFC East, but otherwise they had a cupcake schedule. Of course, being in their division guarantees that to be the case. Just like we usually have one of the tougher schedules by being here in the AFC West.

                              The Pats did hold their season together pretty well when it appeared to be in shambles, but let's not forget that they fed on a pretty weak schedule too. The only other decent team in their division this year is Miami. And they split with them. Then they swept their other division rivals to go 5-1 in the division. They had to play the AFC West which is rough, but they didn't do all that well. They went 1-3 against us. Their real success against decent teams came against the NFC South. They went 3-1 against the NFC South. Of course, if you ask me, the NFC South is an overrated division to some extent. It has a couple of strong, but not dominant teams, a mediocre team and a pathetic team. Going 3-1 against them isn't bad, but it isn't really impressive either.

                              They did also beat Pittsburgh and had to play Indy, but I don't think that qualifies them as a truly dominant team. Especially since they also got smoked by KC after they had already been healed for the most part.

                              I give them a chance based purely on their past, but their pass defense is just horrible this year. It is better than Cincy's though.
                              My adopted fan is dogfish

                              . . . . . . . . . . .
                              . Post Your Artwork .
                              . . . . . . . . . . .

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X