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  • Archimedes Owl
    replied
    Originally posted by rogue719
    But even that isn't quite true. They played a crippled Corey Dillon-less New England, as the Broncos did, they played a Pittsburgh team just getting it's offensive starters back, including Roethlisberger's first game back from injury and they played Jacksonville who has a very strong defense but whose offense is suspect. All of those things help to pad those defensive stats.



    True, but the Colts had Houston twice, Tennessee twice and Jacksonville twice. Jacksonville made their offense struggle once but has not had much of an offense themselves lately. When the Colts did play teams with an offense, such as Cincy and San Diego and even St. Louis, their defense showed up as very suspect.
    Fair point. Clearly they played very few teams with good offenses and when they did, they struggled.

    Their defense is better than last year's version for sure, but I am still not impressed with it.

    Still, they didn't ONLY feast on weak teams. They also beat some pretty good teams. They beat Jacksonville twice and Jacksonville beat Cincy, Pittsburgh and Seattle.

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  • Giveemlove
    replied
    Tom Brady says the Pats are the most disrespected team this year.

    I was watching Sports Center this morning before work and Tom Brady had the nerve to say he and his team of Patsies have been completely disrespected this year. Guess its disrespect when you come out lookin like any other .500 team in the league, guess we're all supposed to worship the ground they walk on just on the virtue of past Super Bowl wins. Try going 13-3, 2nd seed and the last team anyone mentions when talking about the Super Bowl, then whine to me about being disrespected. As it goes now, the Patsies get far too much attention for finishing off a season on an easy note, while playing the tougher teams they got beat. Cry me a river Brady

    Leave a comment:


  • BANJOPICKER1
    replied
    http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5217274

    Fox has the Broncos rated at #1...Now thats what I am talking about!!

    Leave a comment:


  • rogue719
    replied
    Originally posted by Archimedes Owl
    Well, their first half schedule was one of the easiest since they started doing DVOA rankings, but their second half schedule was a bit more difficult. They ended up playing New England, Pittsburgh, Cincy, San Diego, Seattle and Jacksonville in the second half.
    But even that isn't quite true. They played a crippled Corey Dillon-less New England, as the Broncos did, they played a Pittsburgh team just getting it's offensive starters back, including Roethlisberger's first game back from injury and they played Jacksonville who has a very strong defense but whose offense is suspect. All of those things help to pad those defensive stats.

    If I remember correctly, that makes their schedule this year the fifth easiest.

    A good example of a team with an even easier schedule is Seattle. They played the NFC East, but otherwise they had a cupcake schedule. Of course, being in their division guarantees that to be the case. Just like we usually have one of the tougher schedules by being here in the AFC West.
    True, but the Colts had Houston twice, Tennessee twice and Jacksonville twice. Jacksonville made their offense struggle once but has not had much of an offense themselves lately. When the Colts did play teams with an offense, such as Cincy and San Diego and even St. Louis, their defense showed up as very suspect.

    Leave a comment:


  • SkyFlash1
    replied
    I don't really care where we're ranked as long as it's #1 after the SB.

    Leave a comment:


  • rcsodak
    replied
    Originally posted by rogue719
    On the plus side, the Colts are rated number one because of the same trap. In their place, they played what may well be the easiest schedule in the NFL and one of the easiest schedules in the NFL in the past several years. Their defensive stats are built by pushing around the weakest offensive teams in the entire league while other teams like the Broncos built their record by beating teams with winning records.
    Well, in all fairness, Indy didn't have the easiest schedule......

    ...that belonged to the #1 NFC team, Seattle.

    In fact, of all the teams in the playoffs, only Denver and NE were in the top 10.

    Code:
       Team            Ow/l       %
    01 San Diego      136-104   56.67
    02 Washington     132-108   55.00
    03 Dallas         127-113   52.92
    04 Oakland        126-114   52.50
    04 Philadelphia   126-114   52.50
    04 San Francisco  126-114   52.50
    07 Denver         125-115   52.08
    08 Baltimore      124-116   51.67
    08 Green Bay      124-116   51.67
    08 New England    124-116   51.67
    11 Houston        123-117   51.25
    11 Kansas City    123-117   51.25
    11 N.Y. Jets      123-117   51.25
    14 New Orleans    121-119   50.42
    14 N.Y. Giants    121-119   50.42
    14 Pittsburgh     121-119   50.42
    17 Cleveland      120-120   50.00
    18 Arizona        119-121   49.58
    18 Tennessee      119-121   49.58
    20 Detroit        118-122   49.17
    21 Buffalo        117-123   48.75
    21 Cincinnati     117-123   48.75
    21 Minnesota      117-123   48.75
    24 Atlanta        115-125   47.92
    24 Indianapolis   115-125   47.92
    24 Jacksonville   115-125   47.92
    27 St. Louis      114-126   47.50
    28 Chicago        112-128   46.67
    29 Carolina       110-130   45.83
    29 Miami          110-130   45.83
    29 Tampa Bay      110-130   45.83
    32 Seattle        107-133   44.58 <--- Pathetic

    Leave a comment:


  • Archimedes Owl
    replied
    Well, their first half schedule was one of the easiest since they started doing DVOA rankings, but their second half schedule was a bit more difficult. They ended up playing New England, Pittsburgh, Cincy, San Diego, Seattle and Jacksonville in the second half.

    If I remember correctly, that makes their schedule this year the fifth easiest.

    A good example of a team with an even easier schedule is Seattle. They played the NFC East, but otherwise they had a cupcake schedule. Of course, being in their division guarantees that to be the case. Just like we usually have one of the tougher schedules by being here in the AFC West.

    The Pats did hold their season together pretty well when it appeared to be in shambles, but let's not forget that they fed on a pretty weak schedule too. The only other decent team in their division this year is Miami. And they split with them. Then they swept their other division rivals to go 5-1 in the division. They had to play the AFC West which is rough, but they didn't do all that well. They went 1-3 against us. Their real success against decent teams came against the NFC South. They went 3-1 against the NFC South. Of course, if you ask me, the NFC South is an overrated division to some extent. It has a couple of strong, but not dominant teams, a mediocre team and a pathetic team. Going 3-1 against them isn't bad, but it isn't really impressive either.

    They did also beat Pittsburgh and had to play Indy, but I don't think that qualifies them as a truly dominant team. Especially since they also got smoked by KC after they had already been healed for the most part.

    I give them a chance based purely on their past, but their pass defense is just horrible this year. It is better than Cincy's though.

    Leave a comment:


  • rogue719
    replied
    Originally posted by Lomax
    Just noticed that Football Outsiders ranks Indy #1 with a rating of 36.6%, and Denver #2 with a rating of 36.5%. For all the folks who don't even mention Denver when discussing possible Superbowl scenarios.

    Oh yeah. New England is 15th (last year they finished the season 1st). Still scared to play them?
    Remember also that football outsiders stats are based entirely on a series of numbers and that the Patriots played without the majority of their starters through the entire middle section of the season and are only now getting healthy again. The team that put up the stats that get that ranking are not the team you will see on the field in the playoffs.

    On top of that a number of sportswriters are putting in Tom Brady's name for MVP, since for the majority of the season, Brady carried that team on his shoulders and it's a testament to his abilities that they are even in the playoffs.

    Still feel like dismissing them?

    On the plus side, the Colts are rated number one because of the same trap. In their place, they played what may well be the easiest schedule in the NFL and one of the easiest schedules in the NFL in the past several years. Their defensive stats are built by pushing around the weakest offensive teams in the entire league while other teams like the Broncos built their record by beating teams with winning records.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lomax
    replied
    Originally posted by Plastique
    Blindly saying that we will destroy anyone in the post season isn't what makes you a Broncos fan... what makes a fan is WANTING your team to do it. You can still be realistic about the chances and every player on the team will tell you that until we do it we can't talk ANY smack about it.
    I agree. Fortunately, I'm not blindly saying we will destroy anyone. I didn't even say we'll "destroy" the Colts. But I do believe that DVOA is right in that this year's team should be favored against any team we meet besides the Colts, up to and including the Super Bowl, and that we're not only good enough to beat the Colts this year, we're almost in an even heat statistically. That's not smack. I acknowledge that being good enough to do something and actually doing it are two different things.

    Leave a comment:


  • Archimedes Owl
    replied
    Originally posted by Lomax
    Actually, the "Weighted DVOA" favors the more recent games. In "Weighted DVOA", New England is ranked 13th. Denver is ranked 1st. I think what you said is exactly the case. New England's passing offense is great. Their rushing offense is mediocre. Their rush defense is mediocre. And their pass defense is atrocious. There's really no two ways about it. New England has essentially swapped places with Indy from a few years ago. They're a great passing team that doesn't offer much else.
    You're right about the weighted DVOA treating the most recent games as the most important, but they still take a pretty long term approach. They weight the last eight games of the season equally and then scale it down over four game intervals. The last eight games are still half of the season and New England hasn't appeared to be getting it together til more recently than that. Still, it's not like they instantly improved when Bruschi came back. They still got their asses handed to them by the chiefs. And have only dominated one quality team of late (The Bucs).

    Anyway, the fact that they have been pathetic in the passing game with a schedule like theirs (You know against few passing teams), suggests that they should have problems with that facet of that game in the playoffs.

    Lucky for them, Jacksonville's strength isnt' their passing game.

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  • Atwater His Ass
    replied
    We are #1 in the weighted DVOA.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ravage!!!
    replied
    Originally posted by Lomax
    Just noticed that Football Outsiders ranks Indy #1 with a rating of 36.6%, and Denver #2 with a rating of 36.5%. For all the folks who don't even mention Denver when discussing possible Superbowl scenarios.

    Oh yeah. New England is 15th (last year they finished the season 1st). Still scared to play them?
    yes.......

    Leave a comment:


  • Plastique
    replied
    At this point Indy has the better team. They have a slightly better record and thats all that matters. They've owned us in the playoffs more than once in recent years. We have to PROVE that we are better at this point.

    It is clear to me that Shanny has been building a team to beat the Colts ever since that first playoff loss to them. The week before we lost that game we destroyed them so he saw how to do it and all the moves he's been making in the offseason since then have been to make it more likely that we can pull that off again. Are we there yet.... that remains to be seen.

    Bottom line is that the Colts look strong this year... very very strong. We look really strong too but the Colts are the team to beat and until we beat them I'm not positive that we can. Blindly saying that we will destroy anyone in the post season isn't what makes you a Broncos fan... what makes a fan is WANTING your team to do it. You can still be realistic about the chances and every player on the team will tell you that until we do it we can't talk ANY smack about it.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lomax
    replied
    Originally posted by Archimedes Owl
    To be fair, the argument that New England is a threat is based on the idea that they've improved over the year because they have not been as injured. The footballoutsiders rankings don't take this idea into account.
    Actually, the "Weighted DVOA" favors the more recent games. In "Weighted DVOA", New England is ranked 13th. Denver is ranked 1st. I think what you said is exactly the case. New England's passing offense is great. Their rushing offense is mediocre. Their rush defense is mediocre. And their pass defense is atrocious. There's really no two ways about it. New England has essentially swapped places with Indy from a few years ago. They're a great passing team that doesn't offer much else.

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  • Lomax
    replied
    Originally posted by topscribe
    Unfortunately, if we end up playing the Pats, it won't be at Football Outsiders. Moreover, I don't envision Tedy & Co. giving a rat's behind about what they say or where they rank them. The only thing I'm counting on is that Denver is a better home team than NE is a road team (IMO), for which reason I'm glad that contest would take place at Invesco.
    I'm not saying it will. What I am saying is that the Pats haven't proven anything in the last six games in their wins over the Jets twice, Buffalo once, and their win over TB is only offset by the loss to Miami. The assertion that they're somehow back to being the same team that won the SB last season is ludicrous. With an easy schedule, they barely managed double-digit wins, and it's clear to anyone that the only reason they're even IN the playoffs is because Buffalo, Miami, and NYJ suck this season (though next season Miami will likely give them a run for their money).

    Regarding Indy, I believe Denver is the more balanced team. Problem is, part of Indy's imbalance comes in the form of Peyton Manning, augmented by the likes of Harrison and Wayne. Come the opportunity to again go to Indy, I direly hope the Broncos can mount a pass rush like they've never had before.

    -----
    There's too much skill on a man for man basis to square up and beat that offense. You have to beat Manning to beat them. I guess that's what you're trying to say. If he's allowed to get into a rhythm, it would be a long day. He's not perfect, and it's important that we learn from teams that have caused him problems like SD, Jax, Pitts to figure out a way to beat him.

    That said, I don't think Indy has anyone who can man up with Rod Smith, and I think Lelie would have a good day against them too. I think our OL and mobile passing game neutralizes the small, quick DL, and if we make the Indy safeties back off the run, I think we'll have HUGE running lanes and will have a big offensive day.

    All in all, this season the Broncos are greater than the sum of their parts, and will win a matchup against Indy (if it comes to pass) because this defense not only doesn't lose focus like the defenses of the past, but routinely capitalizes on the opposing offense's mistakes. We won't give up 30 in the first half as has been the case previously, and this offense, with a sense of urgency, will put up points in a hurry and shut down the crowd for much of the game. But for now, we should be satisfied to be 0.1% worse than the league's best team. It won't be the case for long.

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