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An Objective Look at Jake's AFC Championship Game Turnovers

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  • An Objective Look at Jake's AFC Championship Game Turnovers

    Ok, this will be a four part series. It takes some time to compile, so I only have the first turnover done. I will prepare the other three tomorrow.

    I decided to prepare this analysis because there is a whole lot of finger pointing on both sides of the Jake debate. Some say it is all Jake's fault, some say it wasn't Jake's fault. His four turnover's have been pointed out by many as the main reason we lost the game.

    It has been months, so I honestly can't remember every detail. So, since I still had the game on my Tivo, I decided to look at each turnover to see what factors (if any) were involved in the turnover.

    Turnover number 1:

    This turnover occurred with 3:29 left in the first quarter.

    This turnover can clearly not be blamed on Jake. If you watch the linked video, you will see that from snap to the ball out of Jake's hand is somewhere between 2.5 and 2.8 seconds. The rushing ends are basically at Jake's drop back point at the same time or before him.

    http://www.cherokeeflyer.com/downloa...rst_fumble.wmv

    Obviously, since the ball came out of Jake's hands, there is no way that he takes zero blame, but this play was a complete breakdown in pass coverage.

    As you will see in that clip, that was only Jakes 2nd fumble in the previous 17 games.

    I will prepare the other clips tomorrow, with no preconceived notions. Whatever they show, they show, which is why I decided to stop with the talk and provde video proof for each turnover, whether it makes Jake look bad or good.
    Last edited by tnedator; 12-31-2007, 08:45 AM.
    The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

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  • #2
    I like the analysis you're doing here and look forward to parts 2-4. However, I have to disagree on this. (And I like Jake)

    QBs get sacked, it happens. Had he gotten sacked no one could put a hint of blame on him. Once he started to scramble from the strong side blitzer he should have had better protection of the ball even if he couldn't see the blind side and I believe he could see him in peripheral vision. This is another case of him trying to make something out of nothing rather than just taking his lumps and living to play another day. He was MUCH better at not doing that last year which is why he only had 2 in 17 games but obviously, the urge is still there.

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    • #3
      Turnover Number 2:

      A couple minutes left to go in the first half. The Broncos needed to make something happen, down 17-3. First play of the drive, Plummer throws an interception on a pass intended for Alexander.

      No two ways about it, a very bad throw. The receiver had inside coverage and Alexander had no chance to catch the ball. The receiver that crossed with Alexander (Lelie I think) would have been a better target. or the ball could have been thrown away. A bad interception.

      http://www.cherokeeflyer.com/downloa...cgfirstint.wmv
      The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

      sigpic

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      • #4
        Factor:

        I don't think by any stretch that this can be used as an excuse for the turnovers, but you have to wonder if it was a factor:

        http://www.cherokeeflyer.com/downloads/underweather.wmv

        The week leading up to the game Jake had a cold or the flu and needed to take oxygen on the sideline.
        The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

        sigpic

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        • #5
          Originally posted by tnedator
          Turnover Number 2:

          A couple minutes left to go in the first half. The Broncos needed to make something happen, down 17-3. First play of the drive, Plummer throws an interception on a pass intended for Alexander.

          No two ways about it, a very bad throw. The receiver had inside coverage and Alexander had no chance to catch the ball. The receiver that crossed with Alexander (Lelie I think) would have been a better target. or the ball could have been thrown away. A bad interception.

          http://www.cherokeeflyer.com/downloa...cgfirstint.wmv
          Ohhh, that one had me red. That was horrible.

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          • #6
            Turnover Number 3:

            Following a good return across center by Charlie Adams, Plummer threw his second interception on the first play of the series. At this point the Broncos were down 27-10.

            Jake tried to get the ball to Rod Smith over the middle and the ball was intercepted by a linebacker dropping back into coverage who made a leaping catch.

            Mike Anderson was open on a swing out to the right and would like have had a large gain if Plummer had looked for him. There was no real pressure from rushers prior to the throw.

            http://www.cherokeeflyer.com/downloa...gsecondint.wmv

            Another bad throw.
            The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

            sigpic

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            • #7
              Originally posted by tnedator
              Turnover Number 3:

              Following a good return across center by Charlie Adams, Plummer threw his second interception on the first play of the series. At this point the Broncos were down 27-10.

              Jake tried to get the ball to Rod Smith over the middle and the ball was intercepted by a linebacker dropping back into coverage who made a leaping catch.

              Mike Anderson was open on a swing out to the right and would like have had a large gain if Plummer had looked for him. There was no real pressure from rushers prior to the throw.

              http://www.cherokeeflyer.com/downloa...gsecondint.wmv

              Another bad throw.
              Son of a....

              Phil Simms actually said something smart--MA was wide freakin' open.

              Comment


              • #8
                Turnover Number 4:

                With the Broncos down 27-17, Jake Plummer was sacked on third down when the Steeler's rushed five and the pocket collapsed. The Broncos then went for it on 4th down and 10.

                On fourth down, the Steelers only rushed three against the Broncos five pass blockers. The right, outside pass rusher completely blew by Foster and got to Plummer in under three seconds. Plummer was able to duck under and out of the sack, and tried to scramble out of the pocket and then his arm was hit by another rusher and the ball was knocked free.

                This was another complete breakdown in pass coverage where three rushers overpowered our five pass blockers, and Jake was trying to keep the play alive on fourth and ten.

                If he had simply held onto the ball and went down versus trying to make something out of nothing would have no bearing, because it was fourth down. Turnover or turnover on downs.

                http://www.cherokeeflyer.com/downloa...condfumble.wmv
                The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

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                • #9
                  Conclusions:

                  The two interceptions were poor decisions. Neither of those throws should have been made, and there was no signifigant pressure on either throw.

                  The two fumbles both occurred when pass coverage completely broke down. On the first fumble, to rushers were on Jake as he completed his five step drop and before he even had an opportunity to attempt to step up and avoid the rush (~2.6 seconds). The second fumble occurred when three rushers beat five pass blockers and Jake was trying to keep the game alive on a 4th and 10.

                  I would say that the two interceptions were completely Jakes fault, and the two fumbles have to be pinned on the offensive line.
                  The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt

                  sigpic

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I think Plummer is responsible for all 4 turnovers.

                    The line was horrible, and no doubt were in Plummer's face all game long. Plummer still needs to protect the ball as he goes down though.

                    Those interceptions were absolutely horrible to watch.
                    You've got to know when to sack em...

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                    • #11
                      Fumble #1

                      Originally posted by SkyFlash1
                      QBs get sacked, it happens. Had he gotten sacked no one could put a hint of blame on him. Once he started to scramble from the strong side blitzer he should have had better protection of the ball even if he couldn't see the blind side and I believe he could see him in peripheral vision. This is another case of him trying to make something out of nothing rather than just taking his lumps and living to play another day. He was MUCH better at not doing that last year which is why he only had 2 in 17 games but obviously, the urge is still there.
                      No way can I agree with any of this!

                      The first blitzer comes from Jake's right and he sees him coming. He steps up to avoid him, which is exactly what he should do. He wants to step up and get rid of the ball quickly, because in another second, that LB will make the adjustment and be hitting him. He has 1 second to get rid of the ball to the hot read.

                      The RT George Foster clearly expect his man to rush flat, but he takes a step deeper and Foster never catches up.

                      What Plummer doesn't see while he's avoiding the blitz from the right side is that the FB (I can't catch his #) on the left completely WHIFFED on his block. He makes a feeble stab at blocking his man and is unceremoniously thrown to the ground. The reason I can't see his # is that he's thrown completely out of the picture!

                      Result? Jake is stepping up and before he can look to his left or do anything with the ball he's blind-sided from the left by another LB!

                      Notice that on the bench he's steaming mad at the blocking. That was just a DOUBLE WHIFF by the Broncos OL. Horrible blocking on that play.

                      To call that Jake's fault is ridiculous. 99% of the time you would have a fumble in that situation with any QB.

                      If the FB had at least blocked his man for 1 second Jake would have had a chance to see the pocket collapsing from that side as well and tucked the ball away before he was sacked. As it was he had absolutely NO chance on the play.
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                      • #12
                        i think the first fumble was entirely jake's fault. yes, he was pressured. but you'd be hardpressed to find a game in which the quarterback is not pressured once in the entire game. that is not an excuse for a fumble. and he had that ball waay out there, i don't know what he was thinking but it looked like he was trying to keep it as far away from his body as possible.
                        other than that, it was cool of you to go through the effort of capturing the video clips on your computer..... but i think the timing is a little bad. most people are trying to forget that game

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                        • #13
                          When pass protection badly breaks down, quarterbacks fumble. That is because of the way they have to handle the ball. A running back can wrap both arms around the ball when he is in traffic. The quarterback's function is either to hand off or to pass. When he pulls down the ball to evade pressure or to scramble, the ball for a split second is in an extremely vulnerable position.

                          I haven't yet had the opportunity to evaluate the flicks Tned graciously provided here since I have to download them first, because I am operating through a dialup modem for right now. But, until then, I have to give Tned credit for both honesty and objectivity in his analyses. Interceptions are usually the quarterback's fault . . . or at least he must shoulder much of the blame . . . and fumbles are usually the accomplishment of the pass rusher.

                          However, as pointed out in another post, Jake had gone 16 entire games without a fumble, so that definitely is not a propensity of his. Nor was he given to interceptions last year, having thrown only 8 in 17 games previous to the regrettable day in question. I did watch the game, and I do place the blame for the INTs on Jake. However, in view of his remarkable entire season, and having remembered the way Brady played against the Broncos the week before and the way Rothlisberger played against Seattle the game after, I am one of the more balanced fans who can forgive him and actually thank him for a splendid year.

                          I look forward to another splendid year from Jake Plummer.

                          -----

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Cugel
                            No way can I agree with any of this!

                            The first blitzer comes from Jake's right and he sees him coming. He steps up to avoid him, which is exactly what he should do. He wants to step up and get rid of the ball quickly, because in another second, that LB will make the adjustment and be hitting him. He has 1 second to get rid of the ball to the hot read.

                            The RT George Foster clearly expect his man to rush flat, but he takes a step deeper and Foster never catches up.

                            What Plummer doesn't see while he's avoiding the blitz from the right side is that the FB (I can't catch his #) on the left completely WHIFFED on his block. He makes a feeble stab at blocking his man and is unceremoniously thrown to the ground. The reason I can't see his # is that he's thrown completely out of the picture!

                            Result? Jake is stepping up and before he can look to his left or do anything with the ball he's blind-sided from the left by another LB!

                            Notice that on the bench he's steaming mad at the blocking. That was just a DOUBLE WHIFF by the Broncos OL. Horrible blocking on that play.

                            To call that Jake's fault is ridiculous. 99% of the time you would have a fumble in that situation with any QB.

                            If the FB had at least blocked his man for 1 second Jake would have had a chance to see the pocket collapsing from that side as well and tucked the ball away before he was sacked. As it was he had absolutely NO chance on the play.
                            Fine analysis, as usual. Thanks for a very insightful contribution.

                            -----

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                            • #15
                              the reason plummer had the ball out there was not because he was pulling it down from the passing position, he already had the ball at waist level after eluding the first defensive lineman but never made an attempt to secure the ball while running. what i noticed from this season is that when he tries to run, he always leaves the ball hanging out away from his body as he tries to find a lane to run through. he usually doesn't cover it up until he is about to slide.

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