Charlie Adams over Darius Watts?

[zarub]

Let's just draft Jason Hill out of WSU next year...that will solve all our problems.

I hope he has an awful season and slips under the radar, so we can pick him up in the 3rd or 4th.

But, good luck. Hill is the man. If we could get him, with Javon and Hill, after Rod retires, we'd have a great WR core.

[WABronco]

He he he....

[tnedator]

interesting claims. can you show me your evidence?

Ok, there is your 'evidence'

Courtesy of WABronco:

-Jake Plummer has not been Jake the Mistake for the last two years. According to Joyner, Plummer had the 6th lowest bad decision percentage in his 20-INT 2004 (which is defined as: A) Forcing a pass into coverage B) Staring down the receiver C) Throwing the ball while being tackled/sacked D) Misreading a defense or not seeing a defender).

"Just consider that three of his interceptions in '04 came off of tipped passes by D-lineman. A fourth came when he threw to an open receiver and the receiver was hit hard. The ball popped up in the air and was intercepted. A fifth came on a 4th and 16 when Plummer had no choice but to force the pass into coverage or else get sacked. Take those 5 interceptions out and Plummer had a 27/15 TD/INT ratio, or almost 2/1."

"So it turns out he had a lot of bad breaks in 2004. In 2005, more of those breaks went his way."

He had only 3 bad decision interceptions in '05.

http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=67685&highlight=wait

------------------------
Here is an ESPN insider artilce that refers to 2005 bad decisions and QB's

I [KC Joyner] track more than 100 metrics in every NFL game, but the most misunderstood and controversial of these has to be the bad decision metric for quarterbacks. The bad decision metric is the method I use to track a quarterback's mistakes. Simply put, if the quarterback makes a decision with the ball that either could have led or did lead to a turnover, he is debited with a bad decision on the play.

The most common types of bad decisions are:

1. Forcing a pass into coverage
2. Staring at a receiver
3. Throwing the ball despite being tackled
4. Misreading a zone defense and not seeing a defender in the passing lane.

On each of these types of plays, the quarterback is noted as having made a bad decision. There are game situations that can force a quarterback to throw the ball into coverage (e.g., on fourth-and-30, Hail Mary plays, etc.) that will not be ruled as bad decisions.

If the quarterback's mistake did not lead to a turnover (e.g., a dropped interception, a recovered fumble, etc.), the mistake is given only one bad decision point. If the mistake led to a turnover, however, it is given two mistake points and also is subject to a graduating scale of points based on how damaging the turnover was (e.g., an additional point for an interception killing a scoring drive, another additional point if the interception led to the opponent's being set up in scoring position, etc.). The scale has an upper limit of five points for any single bad decision.

Bad decision/mistake %: Top and bottom five			
Rank	Player	Team	Bad decision/Mistake %
1	Tom Brady	Patriots	0.7
2	David Carr	Texans	1.6
3	Peyton Manning	Colts	1.7
4	Drew Bledsoe	Cowboys	1.9
5	Jake Plummer	Broncos	2.1
38	Aaron Brooks	Saints (on Raiders now)	4.9
39	David Garrard	Jaguars	5.1
40	J.P. Losman	Bills	5.9
41	Jamie Martin	Rams	5.9
42	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	6.5

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2542482

[Prodigal19]

Guys. Adams is NOT going to be a #3 or even a #4 receiver. He will be #5 or #6 so I dont understand what you are all upset about. He is here for special teams, and Watts didnt play special teams.
Why would you guys rather have Watts as our #5 then Adams? The #5 never even gets to play, so why not fill the spot with a guy that can contribute on special teams.

[tnedator]

interesting claims. can you show me your evidence?

Yes, unlike you I tend to try and back up what I post. While I gather that, why don't you show us where "shanahan kept saying good things about watts EVEN AS HE WAS DEMOTING HIM. big difference."

[tnedator]

I think everyone see's the what Watts could potentially be. He has the tools to be a better reciever than Adams. Although, you are right Adams has done more for the team. Especially ST's.

Just as everyone was able to see what Dayne could potentially be. When these guys come to the NFL they have to transition from 'having' portential to 'realizing' that potential.

Some players can't do it. I like Watts and thought he had a lot of potential, and I hope he catches on with another team and does well.

[WABronco]

Kircus and Marshall have the chance to be every bit as good as all of those guys on the list. The only superior talent on this list is Henry, and he will probably thug his way out of the league in the next couple of years.

I'll give you Marshall based only on physical talent...but Kircus hasn't proven jack. Both of his big plays were a result of the same route (stop and go), and both times the scrub corner bit so hard he may need a new set of teeth. Well, I suppose Antrel Rolle isn't a complete scrub, but he's still a rookie (basically). And in Detroit, that was just a complete blown coverage by both the corner and the helping safety.

I haven't seen him line up in the slot a whole lot in the games I've watched. When he did against Houston he dropped a ball over the middle and he caused two more incompletions by breaking off his route.

I'm not willing to hop on the Kircus bandwagon just yet...

Oh, and Bobby Engram, Brandon Stokely, and Eric Parker all have extremely high value-per-play (DVOA)...very high. I would kill for someone like that...

[PLUMMERFAN16]

I don't care what happened to Watts...Adams shouldn't be on this team, period. The only reason he's here is he can catch a punt. I suppose he's passable as a no. 6 guy/special teamer.

Like I said before, I have nothing against the guy personally, but I hope he never ever sees the field again as the no. 3 receiver.

I would take Devoe, Kircus, and obviously Marshall as a no. 3 before Charlie...and I'm sure there's a handful of guys already on the market that I'd take before Adams.

I just think he's an empty uniform as a receiver. He lacks the necessary quickness and he has little to no seperation ability. No. 6 at best...

Stole words right out of my fingers!

[Chidoze]

The point, everyone, was that Watts could only have made the team as a 4th/5th receiver -- whom have to play ST.

Watts doesn't play ST.

Watts is a 1st/2nd/3rd receiver who is supposed to be on the field; this team already has those in bunches, so that makes him kinda useless for this team and a casualty of the numbers game.

I think that sums it up. If you cant play special teams when your the 4-5-6 reciever, then your pretty much useless because your not going to see playing time unless they use a 6 WR set. So basically the team would be paying him to sit there until the 1-2-3 recievers get hurt.

[WABronco]

I don't care what happened to Watts...Adams shouldn't be on this team, period. The only reason he's here is he can catch a punt. I suppose he's passable as a no. 6 guy/special teamer.

Like I said before, I have nothing against the guy personally, but I hope he never ever sees the field again as the no. 3 receiver.

I would take Devoe, Kircus, and obviously Marshall as a no. 3 before Charlie...and I'm sure there's a handful of guys already on the market that I'd take before Adams.

I just think he's an empty uniform as a receiver. He lacks the necessary quickness and he has little to no seperation ability. No. 6 at best...

[cabroncofanatic]

No, I am not blaming anyone for Plummer's INT's, even though when every one of his passes in '04 was broken down, he had the 5th lowest bad decision rate in the league.

Plummer threw deep on par with all but the most pass happy teams (Green Bay, Eagles, etc.) last year, with clearly flies in the face of the statements that the offense was more conservative to try and prevent Jake mistakes. It appeared more conservative because we didn't have quality WR depth to throw to.

interesting claims. can you show me your evidence?

[cabroncofanatic]

Ok, if that is what you want to believe, then so be it. I heard all the same things about Dayne from his fans.

Shanahan made us believe he would be the starter by giving him a signing bonus and signing him to a three year contract.

Shanahan made us believe he would be the starter by letting Mike Anderson go.

yeah, but he did all these things BEFORE dayne proved in tc he couldn't cut it. otoh, shanahan kept saying good things about watts EVEN AS HE WAS DEMOTING HIM. big difference.

Blah, Blah. Shanahan is not a wet nurse. His job is not to be concerned about what you feel or believe.

actually, judging by his success at picking wide receivers, you'd think manipulating his own players and public opinion were the ONLY things shanahan was any good at - vis a vis the wr pos, of course.

[Kaylore]

Well he's definitely better than Watts. I suspect that if someone better comes down the waiver wire we cut him. Part of me thinks we kept him just to stick it to the cowboys who probably backed out of the trade thinking that they could pick him up on waivers.

[tnedator]

i loved watts. he was one of my favorite receivers

Mine too. I with he could have figured out how to catch the ball. Even though he doesn't use it as an excuse, I have to wonder if his messed up fingers are to blame.

[tnedator]

are you saying the offense was dumbed down because lelie was not a reliable target in '04? are you blaming ash for plummer's ints?

No, I am not blaming anyone for Plummer's INT's, even though when every one of his passes in '04 was broken down, he had the 5th lowest bad decision rate in the league.

What I am saying is that the offense was not 'dumbed down' as a reaction to ANYTHING plummer did, including setting franchise records for yards and TDs (tied with Elway on TDs of course).

What I am saying is that the Broncos ran much more two TE and two RB and sometimes both two TE and two RB at the same time, because Rod was the only relieble WR and there was basically nobody behind Lelie. Therefore, they didn't have the talent to run 3 and 4 wide sets last year.

Plummer threw deep on par with all but the most pass happy teams (Green Bay, Eagles, etc.) last year, with clearly flies in the face of the statements that the offense was more conservative to try and prevent Jake mistakes. It appeared more conservative because we didn't have quality WR depth to throw to.