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  • Originally posted by underrated29 View Post

    I dont think it will be after the draft. Texans don't have a 1st or 2nd. They need to draft players with the picks from Watson. It will be before the draft 100%.
    it wouldn't surprise me to see the Texans take a similar approach to what they did with Clowney and refuse to trade till they are 100% sure Watson wont stay in Houston.
    sigpic
    oakland raders gm
    latavis murray trade bait

    Comment


    • Originally posted by DiveInstructor View Post

      Don't know. "Outsiders" are assuming that Vegas often gets their guesses right based on what little info is available, though. Just speculation, of course. The one stinker is that many believe the Texans won't make a move until after the draft. Kinda makes sense, since probably suitors with good 1st round picks will use their picks and few will have much to offer. Some are already talking about going after Watson next year, when he's eligible.
      I guess none of us here will know anything until something "valid and concrete" happens. When it does, this forum will light up regardless what it is.
      Utah Bronco Freak

      Comment


      • Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post

        Big money WRs and RBs don’t win Super Bowls is the myth. The QB cap percentage nonsense you’re talking about will correct itself over time. Mahomes will probably win another one at some point in his career as well as some of the other elite young QBs in the game right now. You sound like you just want to draft a QB every 4-5 seasons and never pay the guy his worth. That isn’t a recipe for sustained success.

        Watson would not divide the locker room, our locker room seems to be actively campaigning for him, even Justin Simmons is saying he’d like to have Watson. Drew Lock is just as likely to divide the locker room into the great offense vs defense fiasco we’ve seen the past few years. Worse results? I don’t think Watson will ever throw 18 TDs and 15 INTs in a single season. Almost anything is an improvement over that. How would it hamstring the organization?? What 1st round pick or combo of picks is going to come in and right the ship? It would have to be a QB but what QB is going to available from picks 9-15 over the next 2-3 seasons that won’t take 2-3 seasons to develop? Wilson likely won’t be there at 9 and he still needs at least a season to fix his flaws so he’s out. Lance? He’s just as likely to be out the league in 3 years as he is to be an elite QB. Jones? Will always be limited by his arm. Next year’s class when we’re picking 12th? Yeah there’s no one there either. The year after? Well we’re already in the theoretical last year of picks we spent for Watson and there definitely won’t be a QB better than Watson as a rookie.

        All these draft picks we’ve used since Manning retired has only taken us further from the goal. The draft picks will not matter until we have a legitimate franchise QB. Ozzie Newsome is arguably the greatest GM of all time in terms of drafting yet with all these HoF players and Pro Bowl he only managed 2 super bowl wins, one with a historic defense and another with an above average QB playing out of his mind. So in 27 years(and really it’s more because he’s still working with the Ravens) he’s been to 2 and won 2. But Elway went all in on Manning and went 1-1 in 5 years. Sure we didn’t give up picks for Manning, but did any of those 1st and 2nd round draft picks really make or break those teams?

        Lock will likely never be bad enough to get us a top 5 pick, it’s also just as likely he’s never good enough to consistently put us in the playoffs, especially in this division. The core of the team is good enough to get in the playoffs now, they are just a QB away and there are no QBs we can realistically get through the draft anytime soon that makes us better than we would be with Watson or even that much better than with Lock.
        I am sure you are right about Lock never being good enough for us to compete for championships, and you might very well be right that Mahomes is so special that he might overcome the handicap of his pay. As Al Wilson says Mahomes plays at a higher level than any QB he has ever seen, but there is a world of difference between what Mahomes can do an what Deshaun Watson can. Mahomes time and time again has been loosing games and then come out and scored an obsene amount of points in no time.

        First round picks
        2008 12 Ryan Clady OT Boise State Fantastic OT for years
        2009 12 Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia Solid producer for 5 years - 10TD in 2013 - huge part of that team
        2009 18 Robert Ayers DE Tennessee Wouldn't have won WC against Steelers without him
        2010 22 Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech 2nd leading Broncos reciever of all time
        2010 25 Tim Tebow QB Florida Manning wouldn't have come without him, 2011 wouldn't have happened
        Broncos would have been in a 10 year slump without those results
        2011 2 Von Miller LB Texas A & M No SB 50 without him
        2012 No pick
        2013 28 Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina
        2014 31 Bradley Roby CB Ohio State Significant part of No Fly Zone
        2015 23 Shane Ray LB Missouri
        2016 26 Paxton Lynch QB Memphis
        2017 20 Garett Bolles OT Utah Good to great OT now
        2018 5 Bradley Chubb DE NC State Core defensive player
        2019 20 Noah Fant TE Iowa Core offensive player
        2020 15 Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
        With a few negatives - P. Lynch we have gotten great production from cheap players saving millions in cap space for FA signings.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by BroncoFanDK View Post

          I am sure you are right about Lock never being good enough for us to compete for championships, and you might very well be right that Mahomes is so special that he might overcome the handicap of his pay. As Al Wilson says Mahomes plays at a higher level than any QB he has ever seen, but there is a world of difference between what Mahomes can do an what Deshaun Watson can. Mahomes time and time again has been loosing games and then come out and scored an obsene amount of points in no time.

          First round picks
          2008 12 Ryan Clady OT Boise State Fantastic OT for years
          2009 12 Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia Solid producer for 5 years - 10TD in 2013 - huge part of that team
          2009 18 Robert Ayers DE Tennessee Wouldn't have won WC against Steelers without him
          2010 22 Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech 2nd leading Broncos reciever of all time
          2010 25 Tim Tebow QB Florida Manning wouldn't have come without him, 2011 wouldn't have happened
          Broncos would have been in a 10 year slump without those results
          2011 2 Von Miller LB Texas A & M No SB 50 without him
          2012 No pick
          2013 28 Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina
          2014 31 Bradley Roby CB Ohio State Significant part of No Fly Zone
          2015 23 Shane Ray LB Missouri
          2016 26 Paxton Lynch QB Memphis
          2017 20 Garett Bolles OT Utah Good to great OT now
          2018 5 Bradley Chubb DE NC State Core defensive player
          2019 20 Noah Fant TE Iowa Core offensive player
          2020 15 Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
          With a few negatives - P. Lynch we have gotten great production from cheap players saving millions in cap space for FA signings.
          Here’s the thing with Mahomes, it isn’t that he himself is special. It’s his arm strength combined with what Hill, Hardman, and even Watkins bring to the table with their speed. Due to how fast they are, it makes it a monumental task to cover Kelce over the middle and you have to do it with just 1 person. As long as Hill is there and paired with another electric speedster they will be favorites pretty much every season.

          Definitely disagree with your view on the draft picks. Clady was good, was also helped out by Cutler’s mobility and the scheme which fooled many into thinking he was a great pass protector. He may not have allowed a sack his rookie season, but he did lead the league in pressures. Then 8 sacks allowed in year 2, 7.5 in year 3, and 9 in year 4.

          Moreno was solid, but his production could have been easily replaced by a much later round pick. And his top years here came against light boxes due to Manning. He was not a good pick at 12.

          Ayers was a bust at 18. He was solid enough but much like Moreno his production could’ve been replaced easily. One great game doesn’t make him a good pick.

          No argument on Demaryius Thomas, although his career was significantly different without Manning.

          Tebow was a waste of a pick. You don’t draft a QB in the 1st with the intention of running 50 times a game (unless it’s Lamar Jackson) or with the intention that he’s going to find a way to entice one of the best ever at QB to come here.

          Von Miller was a great pick no doubt about it.

          Sylvester Williams, bust.

          Bradley Roby was inconsistent even as a member of the No Fly Zone and considering how enviable it would be to match up against the 3rd best WR with Ware, Miller, Jackson, and Wolfe breathing down QB’s necks and it almost looks like a plug and play situation. His career away from that group has been mediocre.

          Shane Ray, Paxton Lynch busts.

          Garrett Bolles has only played well for 1 season but looks to have finally turned it around in year 4. 3 years of bad play and 1 good year. We’ll see if he can keep it up.

          Chubb, he’s a solid player. I don’t think he’s the Batman type of pass rusher though at least not yet. Malik Reed led the team in sacks last year, not Chubb. Great rookie year, injured year 2, and solid in year 3. And again, like with Von this was the 5th pick and many people didn’t think he’d last that long.

          Fant, a solid player for sure. But why is that? It’s his speed, which we have in AOK as well. Fant doesn’t run good routes, he improved a bit as a blocker but he’s still only serviceable in that area, and he’s not very good at tracking the ball/making adjustments while the ball is in the air. I’m sure he will improve and be a great TE but he’s not irreplaceable by any means.

          Jeudy, too early to judge but he has a serious skill set to make him a terror for offenses once he learns how to use his hands to catch the ball.



          All in all, aside from Miller and maybe Chubb, none of these guys are irreplaceable. Many of them are just a dime a dozen. Bolles may very well end up being great but it took 3 years to get there, we’d have a 1st round pick again by that time in a hypothetical Watson deal. My big question from all of this would be, why are you so lenient on these draft picks but you don’t want the all time leader in completion percentage, the youngest QB to ever complete 70% of his passes, and an all around great QB? And you can’t say W/L record because many of these draft picks played on teams that had bad records so clearly these guys weren’t making or breaking the team. The best picks came higher than the 9th pick we currently have and I would trade any combination of those guys for Watson easily. I’d even throw in Chubb.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post

            Here’s the thing with Mahomes, it isn’t that he himself is special. It’s his arm strength combined with what Hill, Hardman, and even Watkins bring to the table with their speed. Due to how fast they are, it makes it a monumental task to cover Kelce over the middle and you have to do it with just 1 person. As long as Hill is there and paired with another electric speedster they will be favorites pretty much every season.

            Definitely disagree with your view on the draft picks. Clady was good, was also helped out by Cutler’s mobility and the scheme which fooled many into thinking he was a great pass protector. He may not have allowed a sack his rookie season, but he did lead the league in pressures. Then 8 sacks allowed in year 2, 7.5 in year 3, and 9 in year 4.

            Moreno was solid, but his production could have been easily replaced by a much later round pick. And his top years here came against light boxes due to Manning. He was not a good pick at 12.

            Ayers was a bust at 18. He was solid enough but much like Moreno his production could’ve been replaced easily. One great game doesn’t make him a good pick.

            No argument on Demaryius Thomas, although his career was significantly different without Manning.

            Tebow was a waste of a pick. You don’t draft a QB in the 1st with the intention of running 50 times a game (unless it’s Lamar Jackson) or with the intention that he’s going to find a way to entice one of the best ever at QB to come here.

            Von Miller was a great pick no doubt about it.

            Sylvester Williams, bust.

            Bradley Roby was inconsistent even as a member of the No Fly Zone and considering how enviable it would be to match up against the 3rd best WR with Ware, Miller, Jackson, and Wolfe breathing down QB’s necks and it almost looks like a plug and play situation. His career away from that group has been mediocre.

            Shane Ray, Paxton Lynch busts.

            Garrett Bolles has only played well for 1 season but looks to have finally turned it around in year 4. 3 years of bad play and 1 good year. We’ll see if he can keep it up.

            Chubb, he’s a solid player. I don’t think he’s the Batman type of pass rusher though at least not yet. Malik Reed led the team in sacks last year, not Chubb. Great rookie year, injured year 2, and solid in year 3. And again, like with Von this was the 5th pick and many people didn’t think he’d last that long.

            Fant, a solid player for sure. But why is that? It’s his speed, which we have in AOK as well. Fant doesn’t run good routes, he improved a bit as a blocker but he’s still only serviceable in that area, and he’s not very good at tracking the ball/making adjustments while the ball is in the air. I’m sure he will improve and be a great TE but he’s not irreplaceable by any means.

            Jeudy, too early to judge but he has a serious skill set to make him a terror for offenses once he learns how to use his hands to catch the ball.



            All in all, aside from Miller and maybe Chubb, none of these guys are irreplaceable. Many of them are just a dime a dozen. Bolles may very well end up being great but it took 3 years to get there, we’d have a 1st round pick again by that time in a hypothetical Watson deal. My big question from all of this would be, why are you so lenient on these draft picks but you don’t want the all time leader in completion percentage, the youngest QB to ever complete 70% of his passes, and an all around great QB? And you can’t say W/L record because many of these draft picks played on teams that had bad records so clearly these guys weren’t making or breaking the team. The best picks came higher than the 9th pick we currently have and I would trade any combination of those guys for Watson easily. I’d even throw in Chubb.
            Chubb is really good he drew more pressure then Reed. He also faced double teams and opened it up for other players such as Reed to have a good season. I think he will be special in this league
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            latavis murray trade bait

            Comment


            • Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post

              Here’s the thing with Mahomes, it isn’t that he himself is special. It’s his arm strength combined with what Hill, Hardman, and even Watkins bring to the table with their speed. Due to how fast they are, it makes it a monumental task to cover Kelce over the middle and you have to do it with just 1 person. As long as Hill is there and paired with another electric speedster they will be favorites pretty much every season.

              Definitely disagree with your view on the draft picks. Clady was good, was also helped out by Cutler’s mobility and the scheme which fooled many into thinking he was a great pass protector. He may not have allowed a sack his rookie season, but he did lead the league in pressures. Then 8 sacks allowed in year 2, 7.5 in year 3, and 9 in year 4.

              Moreno was solid, but his production could have been easily replaced by a much later round pick. And his top years here came against light boxes due to Manning. He was not a good pick at 12.

              Ayers was a bust at 18. He was solid enough but much like Moreno his production could’ve been replaced easily. One great game doesn’t make him a good pick.

              No argument on Demaryius Thomas, although his career was significantly different without Manning.

              Tebow was a waste of a pick. You don’t draft a QB in the 1st with the intention of running 50 times a game (unless it’s Lamar Jackson) or with the intention that he’s going to find a way to entice one of the best ever at QB to come here.

              Von Miller was a great pick no doubt about it.

              Sylvester Williams, bust.

              Bradley Roby was inconsistent even as a member of the No Fly Zone and considering how enviable it would be to match up against the 3rd best WR with Ware, Miller, Jackson, and Wolfe breathing down QB’s necks and it almost looks like a plug and play situation. His career away from that group has been mediocre.

              Shane Ray, Paxton Lynch busts.

              Garrett Bolles has only played well for 1 season but looks to have finally turned it around in year 4. 3 years of bad play and 1 good year. We’ll see if he can keep it up.

              Chubb, he’s a solid player. I don’t think he’s the Batman type of pass rusher though at least not yet. Malik Reed led the team in sacks last year, not Chubb. Great rookie year, injured year 2, and solid in year 3. And again, like with Von this was the 5th pick and many people didn’t think he’d last that long.

              Fant, a solid player for sure. But why is that? It’s his speed, which we have in AOK as well. Fant doesn’t run good routes, he improved a bit as a blocker but he’s still only serviceable in that area, and he’s not very good at tracking the ball/making adjustments while the ball is in the air. I’m sure he will improve and be a great TE but he’s not irreplaceable by any means.

              Jeudy, too early to judge but he has a serious skill set to make him a terror for offenses once he learns how to use his hands to catch the ball.



              All in all, aside from Miller and maybe Chubb, none of these guys are irreplaceable. Many of them are just a dime a dozen. Bolles may very well end up being great but it took 3 years to get there, we’d have a 1st round pick again by that time in a hypothetical Watson deal. My big question from all of this would be, why are you so lenient on these draft picks but you don’t want the all time leader in completion percentage, the youngest QB to ever complete 70% of his passes, and an all around great QB? And you can’t say W/L record because many of these draft picks played on teams that had bad records so clearly these guys weren’t making or breaking the team. The best picks came higher than the 9th pick we currently have and I would trade any combination of those guys for Watson easily. I’d even throw in Chubb.
              Yes - you are right that Mahomes does not do things on his own and once his contract kicks into cap hell he will be a lot worse, but KC still don't have to give up draft capital. Many fair points on Broncos players - BUT - you don't draft later players with the benefit of 20:20 hindsight, so no you cannot easily replace a 1st or 2nd round player with later rounds because you do not find the gems. There is a reason that ex. our #9 pick is worth 5-10 3rd round picks depending on where they fall.

              I can garantee you that Broncos will not make up for the deficiency by drafting 500-1000% better than the rest of the NFL.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post

                Here’s the thing with Mahomes, it isn’t that he himself is special. It’s his arm strength combined with what Hill, Hardman, and even Watkins bring to the table with their speed. Due to how fast they are, it makes it a monumental task to cover Kelce over the middle and you have to do it with just 1 person. As long as Hill is there and paired with another electric speedster they will be favorites pretty much every season.

                Definitely disagree with your view on the draft picks. Clady was good, was also helped out by Cutler’s mobility and the scheme which fooled many into thinking he was a great pass protector. He may not have allowed a sack his rookie season, but he did lead the league in pressures. Then 8 sacks allowed in year 2, 7.5 in year 3, and 9 in year 4.

                Moreno was solid, but his production could have been easily replaced by a much later round pick. And his top years here came against light boxes due to Manning. He was not a good pick at 12.

                Ayers was a bust at 18. He was solid enough but much like Moreno his production could’ve been replaced easily. One great game doesn’t make him a good pick.

                No argument on Demaryius Thomas, although his career was significantly different without Manning.

                Tebow was a waste of a pick. You don’t draft a QB in the 1st with the intention of running 50 times a game (unless it’s Lamar Jackson) or with the intention that he’s going to find a way to entice one of the best ever at QB to come here.

                Von Miller was a great pick no doubt about it.

                Sylvester Williams, bust.

                Bradley Roby was inconsistent even as a member of the No Fly Zone and considering how enviable it would be to match up against the 3rd best WR with Ware, Miller, Jackson, and Wolfe breathing down QB’s necks and it almost looks like a plug and play situation. His career away from that group has been mediocre.

                Shane Ray, Paxton Lynch busts.

                Garrett Bolles has only played well for 1 season but looks to have finally turned it around in year 4. 3 years of bad play and 1 good year. We’ll see if he can keep it up.

                Chubb, he’s a solid player. I don’t think he’s the Batman type of pass rusher though at least not yet. Malik Reed led the team in sacks last year, not Chubb. Great rookie year, injured year 2, and solid in year 3. And again, like with Von this was the 5th pick and many people didn’t think he’d last that long.

                Fant, a solid player for sure. But why is that? It’s his speed, which we have in AOK as well. Fant doesn’t run good routes, he improved a bit as a blocker but he’s still only serviceable in that area, and he’s not very good at tracking the ball/making adjustments while the ball is in the air. I’m sure he will improve and be a great TE but he’s not irreplaceable by any means.

                Jeudy, too early to judge but he has a serious skill set to make him a terror for offenses once he learns how to use his hands to catch the ball.



                All in all, aside from Miller and maybe Chubb, none of these guys are irreplaceable. Many of them are just a dime a dozen. Bolles may very well end up being great but it took 3 years to get there, we’d have a 1st round pick again by that time in a hypothetical Watson deal. My big question from all of this would be, why are you so lenient on these draft picks but you don’t want the all time leader in completion percentage, the youngest QB to ever complete 70% of his passes, and an all around great QB? And you can’t say W/L record because many of these draft picks played on teams that had bad records so clearly these guys weren’t making or breaking the team. The best picks came higher than the 9th pick we currently have and I would trade any combination of those guys for Watson easily. I’d even throw in Chubb.
                I strongly disagree with your take on Mahomes. He is special. He makes throws that most QB's can't even visualize, much less attempt. I could see that in the very first game I watched him play as it was against our Broncos. His arm, mobility, throwing on the run, reading the D pre and post snap, vision...it's light years ahead of anything we've had behind Center other than a couple of HoF'ers and guys temporarily playing out of their minds.
                Adopt-A-Bronco: Kendell Hinton

                Comment


                • Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post

                  .....Many of them are just a dime a dozen. Bolles may very well end up being great but it took 3 years to get there, we’d have a 1st round pick again by that time in a hypothetical Watson deal. My big question from all of this would be, why are you so lenient on these draft picks but you don’t want the all time leader in completion percentage, the youngest QB to ever complete 70% of his passes, and an all around great QB? And you can’t say W/L record because many of these draft picks played on teams that had bad records so clearly these guys weren’t making or breaking the team. The best picks came higher than the 9th pick we currently have and I would trade any combination of those guys for Watson easily. I’d even throw in Chubb.
                  I didn't answer the Deshaun Watson part of your post which is relevant.

                  You don't want to use W/L in evaluating Watson, yet CHFF's Real QB Rating showed a 88% correlation to victory between the complete QB performance of two opposing QBs over several seasons. Other players individually have next to no statistical impact - the best defensive stats correlete about 70%.

                  There has never been a relevant correlation between completion percentage and wins, so it is completely irrelevant for evaluating a QB, and passing yards and winning has a negative correlation.

                  While W/L is not only on the QB, it is primarily on the QB. Defenses and special teams can loose games for you but there is a HUGE difference between some ups and some downs and a 4-12 season. The fact that he has gotten paid by Houston, hasn't delivered and wants out in the manner he does just makes me not want to go there. I believe that he will have a trail of fired coaches and mediocre results. DW is the captain of the Texans ship and at first sign of trouble he abandons ship.

                  The job of the QB is to make everyone better - not to look out for #1. As talented as DW is - it is about the team and not him. You might not think we have gotten enough from our 1st round picks, but try to fantazise about how a team of DW and only 3-7th round picks would look - https://www.pro-football-reference.c.../den/draft.htm

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by listopencil View Post

                    I strongly disagree with your take on Mahomes. He is special. He makes throws that most QB's can't even visualize, much less attempt. I could see that in the very first game I watched him play as it was against our Broncos. His arm, mobility, throwing on the run, reading the D pre and post snap, vision...it's light years ahead of anything we've had behind Center other than a couple of HoF'ers and guys temporarily playing out of their minds.
                    I’m not saying he can’t make special throws other QBs can’t, but there’s also a lot of bad things he does that no other QB can get away with. Just because he can run 20 yards behind the LoS and complete a pass doesn’t mean he should. And without the guys around him, I highly doubt he would get away with doing that. He’s a great QB but I think he gets overrated because of the guys around him.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post

                      I’m not saying he can’t make special throws other QBs can’t, but there’s also a lot of bad things he does that no other QB can get away with. Just because he can run 20 yards behind the LoS and complete a pass doesn’t mean he should. And without the guys around him, I highly doubt he would get away with doing that. He’s a great QB but I think he gets overrated because of the guys around him.
                      Totally agree. Can anyone provide a list of great QB's in the last 30+ years who didn't also have a great "supporting cast?" Like quality wide receivers, quality tight ends, quality running backs that can catch, quality blockers that provide more time for the QB to find open players, create QB run lanes / gaps etc.

                      I believe KC has a few of those type players. Great QB's require a great "supporting cast" to have great success."
                      Utah Bronco Freak

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by BroncoFanDK View Post

                        I didn't answer the Deshaun Watson part of your post which is relevant.

                        You don't want to use W/L in evaluating Watson, yet CHFF's Real QB Rating showed a 88% correlation to victory between the complete QB performance of two opposing QBs over several seasons. Other players individually have next to no statistical impact - the best defensive stats correlete about 70%.

                        There has never been a relevant correlation between completion percentage and wins, so it is completely irrelevant for evaluating a QB, and passing yards and winning has a negative correlation.

                        While W/L is not only on the QB, it is primarily on the QB. Defenses and special teams can loose games for you but there is a HUGE difference between some ups and some downs and a 4-12 season. The fact that he has gotten paid by Houston, hasn't delivered and wants out in the manner he does just makes me not want to go there. I believe that he will have a trail of fired coaches and mediocre results. DW is the captain of the Texans ship and at first sign of trouble he abandons ship.

                        The job of the QB is to make everyone better - not to look out for #1. As talented as DW is - it is about the team and not him. You might not think we have gotten enough from our 1st round picks, but try to fantazise about how a team of DW and only 3-7th round picks would look - https://www.pro-football-reference.c.../den/draft.htm
                        The difference between that stat and Passer Rating is that it incorporates Rushing, Fumbles, and Sacks. So, if Watson had the 2nd highest Passer Rating in the league, was 6th in rushing yards, and had the 2nd fewest fumbles lost amongst the top 8 quarterbacks by rushing attempts, then your argument is basically that Watson was to a degree responsible for the Texans not being good exclusively because he was the 2nd most sacked quarterback in the league. I need you to explain to me then how the Seahawks made the playoffs when Russell Wilson took 2 fewer sacks than Watson, and had inferior stats to Watson's across the board.

                        There are two important things that you are failing to understand. 1. Completion % combined with depth of target is to a degree indicative of how efficient a quarterback is. 2. The CHFF Rating does not incorporate the quality of the defense a quarterback is playing against. Does not incorporate game script. Does not incorporate coaching. Does not incorporate supporting offense.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by BroncoFanDK View Post

                          I didn't answer the Deshaun Watson part of your post which is relevant.

                          You don't want to use W/L in evaluating Watson, yet CHFF's Real QB Rating showed a 88% correlation to victory between the complete QB performance of two opposing QBs over several seasons. Other players individually have next to no statistical impact - the best defensive stats correlete about 70%.

                          There has never been a relevant correlation between completion percentage and wins, so it is completely irrelevant for evaluating a QB, and passing yards and winning has a negative correlation.

                          While W/L is not only on the QB, it is primarily on the QB. Defenses and special teams can loose games for you but there is a HUGE difference between some ups and some downs and a 4-12 season. The fact that he has gotten paid by Houston, hasn't delivered and wants out in the manner he does just makes me not want to go there. I believe that he will have a trail of fired coaches and mediocre results. DW is the captain of the Texans ship and at first sign of trouble he abandons ship.

                          The job of the QB is to make everyone better - not to look out for #1. As talented as DW is - it is about the team and not him. You might not think we have gotten enough from our 1st round picks, but try to fantazise about how a team of DW and only 3-7th round picks would look - https://www.pro-football-reference.c.../den/draft.htm
                          The C botching 2 snaps on plays in goal to go situations in different games didn’t have an impact? Coutee fumbling on the 2 yard line didn’t have an impact? The defense failing to get a stop when Watson gave them the lead didn’t have an impact? All of that resulted in losses that you’re putting solely on Watson or I guess putting 88% of that on Watson.

                          I don’t have to imagine the team without those picks. The core of the team is still here and the trade likely wouldn’t shake that foundation too much if at all. Watson would still be throwing to Sutton, Jeudy, Fant/AOK, and Hamler, he’d still have Lindsay/Gordon at least for next year, the defense would still be solid as well, at least much better than the garbage Houston put out last season.

                          Comment


                          • DK is going to drag Watson through the mud at all costs, it seems.

                            You would think Watson is simultaneously the QB, GM, HC, OC, and DC of the Texans with the way he’s being blamed for 4-12.
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                            • Originally posted by Spice 1 View Post

                              The difference between that stat and Passer Rating is that it incorporates Rushing, Fumbles, and Sacks. So, if Watson had the 2nd highest Passer Rating in the league, was 6th in rushing yards, and had the 2nd fewest fumbles lost amongst the top 8 quarterbacks by rushing attempts, then your argument is basically that Watson was to a degree responsible for the Texans not being good exclusively because he was the 2nd most sacked quarterback in the league. I need you to explain to me then how the Seahawks made the playoffs when Russell Wilson took 2 fewer sacks than Watson, and had inferior stats to Watson's across the board.

                              There are two important things that you are failing to understand. 1. Completion % combined with depth of target is to a degree indicative of how efficient a quarterback is. 2. The CHFF Rating does not incorporate the quality of the defense a quarterback is playing against. Does not incorporate game script. Does not incorporate coaching. Does not incorporate supporting offense.
                              You got things backwards.
                              It is not my job to tell you why the statistics that you base your arguments on does not translate to team success. I have not mentioned Watson's sack rate - I have mentioned that team success is the only measure that you are seeking by pursuing someone other than Drew Lock, and that Watson at 35 million per year on top of a lot of premium draft picks is a deal that based on the NFL history is most likely going to be a massive failure.

                              Watson for however good he is will never have to same pull on FAs like Mahomes or Brady, and we will have to overcome the financial impact of his contract and of not being able to attract. If we are looking af FAs the base line is; We usually bring in about 7 FAs out of which 2 are expensive. To pay these players over the next 3 years there will be 25-30 million less to share than if they went and played with Brady. FAs with options are not going to do that, and we don't have the draft capital to compensate.

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                              • Originally posted by HDbroncos02 View Post
                                DK is going to drag Watson through the mud at all costs, it seems.

                                You would think Watson is simultaneously the QB, GM, HC, OC, and DC of the Texans with the way he’s being blamed for 4-12.
                                Who’s blaming Watson for 4-12?

                                I’ve seen people mention that he shares responsibility for 4-12. Are you suggesting he doesn’t?
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