Justin Simmons- Questions

[Rich_C]

Hey All,

Been a while since I have been on here. Super busy. So I do have some questions which I'd like to hear some honest feedback on. Every week including this last week I keep hearing that Justin Simmons is this world beater at the Safety position. Then there is always the addition of the fact that he is an all around great person. Now I do not think his character can even be called into question. His community work, charity appearances etc. is just second to none. When you look at how he conducts himself off the field he really is presenting himself how any fan or FO would want and then some.

Now....

For me at least this is where I stand. As I understand it Justin is looking for top 3 or even top Safety money. The problem I have is that unless you actually are the very best at your position and can galvanize your team I simply don't think he is worth that kind of payday. When you pay any player top of the market money like that you NEED them to be both a leader on the field and a tone setter.

Above are two images from this past game vs the LAC. I have circled Simmons with a red circle. As a leader and as a safety it is expected that you be that last line of defense. The bottom image in particular reminded me a lot of the Singletary run vs BUF. Simmons took a sharp angle and was directly in front of the offensive player. Rather than squaring up and wrapping him he arm tackled. A similar tackling technique was used in the top image taken near the end of the 4th quarter. Eckler started that portion of the run being right beside Simmons. Rather than wrapping him up and bringing him down he arm tackles and then dives to try and trip him.

Also above is another example of the tackles (or lack there of) I have seen from him. Now there have obviously been good to great plays as well BUT my point is that for a player to be paid a top salary and have it not hinder the team like we've seen from the Cowboys they actually need to be top of the market.

Thoughts?

[Murph2432]

I agree with you. I think Simmons is a very good player that, at times, makes great plays. However, there are many times he fails to do his job and the couple images above are just a few of the times this has happened in the year. I do not want to pay him top safety money at all. That would be a major mistake. I think he is more around $10-$12m per year type player but there is zero chance he settles for that. Considering denver didn’t entertain offers or we didn’t hear of any rumors makes me believe we will pay him the top dollar contract.

[Hadez]

At the beginning of the off-season in 2020 Vic mentioned how Simmons could be better. He said it in a way like he is a very good player who can get better.

I think Simmons can miss basic plays at times and that is what is seen by many. That and the reduced revenue issue is probably why he did not get a long term contract.

[Rich_C]

At the beginning of the off-season in 2020 Vic mentioned how Simmons could be better. He said it in a way like he is a very good player who can get better.

I think Simmons can miss basic plays at times and that is what is seen by many. That and the reduced revenue issue is probably why he did not get a long term contract.

Right but I keep hearing this external narrative like he is some world beater at his position. I just simply do not see it. I think he has moments where he is really on and plays well BUT there are simply too many moments where is isn't. I also think that for too many (Fans and media) they are crossing being a super high class guy (which he is) AND being a top tier NFL player at his position (which he isn't). IMO - I agree with Murph. I see Simmons as being in that middle range 8-10 Mil (TOPS) / year. Even with that though I am concerned that we will not get the value out of that contract. Also before I get others jumping at me in this thread I also do not think Kareem Jackson is worth his price tag next season either.

For all of the time management issues etc. which are fair and appropriate critiques of Fangio the one thing we need to credit him for is defensive player development. We have seen multiple late round guys plug into Vic's defense and really start to play pretty well. I didn't say awesome I said well.

[beastlyskronk]

That narrative is there simply because he was an all pro last season. Simmons is very good, not elite IMO. Tackling is obviously a problem area for him because he’s a wrap and drag kind of tackler, and it’s probably why he’s never missed a snap. He’s not athletic enough to play centerfield which kind of hurts him in run support because you can’t just rely on Jackson being there to shore up the defense all the time.

But as a safety in a 2 high look, as far as coverage goes he’s one of the best. His jumping ability allows him to sink a little more than QBs are used and presents false openings. Another underrated part of his game is his man coverage, he’s not going to come down and take out slot WRs but he can lock up a TE for a good portion of the time. But again you can’t really ask Jackson to be a single high safety either so you don’t get to see that part of his game too much.

What was beautiful about Vic’s defense in Chicago was that both Amos and Jackson could interchange as a single high safety because both of them could start out on one hash and get to the opposite side of the field’s numbers and make a play. Their CBs had so much more freedom because of this. You give inside leverage well you got Eddie Jackson coming over to pick it off, they get outside you got the boundary to make it a difficult catch. Add in Mack and the QB can’t afford to hesitate or keep the S at home. Seattle had something similar with the LOB but instead it was just Earl Thomas with a bunch of long athletic guys making traditional cover 3 beaters useless.

Right now we don’t have a great group of coverage guys. Ideally cover 2 would be great for us but we don’t have a LB that can take away that hole down the middle. As a result we see a ton of quarters coverages with some man coverages thrown in when we want to bring pressure or mix it up. There’s talent on the defense, just none of them compliment each other very well. I feel a ton of our problems are due to the lack of athleticism at ILB. Get a guy in there that can play cover 2 and Simmons will be worth every penny off his coverage alone. Or get a true single high safety and run cover 3 and let Simmons play robber and cloud where he can muck up reads.

[DENVERSB50CHAMP]

That narrative is there simply because he was an all pro last season. Simmons is very good, not elite IMO. Tackling is obviously a problem area for him because he’s a wrap and drag kind of tackler, and it’s probably why he’s never missed a snap. He’s not athletic enough to play centerfield which kind of hurts him in run support because you can’t just rely on Jackson being there to shore up the defense all the time.

But as a safety in a 2 high look, as far as coverage goes he’s one of the best. His jumping ability allows him to sink a little more than QBs are used and presents false openings. Another underrated part of his game is his man coverage, he’s not going to come down and take out slot WRs but he can lock up a TE for a good portion of the time. But again you can’t really ask Jackson to be a single high safety either so you don’t get to see that part of his game too much.

What was beautiful about Vic’s defense in Chicago was that both Amos and Jackson could interchange as a single high safety because both of them could start out on one hash and get to the opposite side of the field’s numbers and make a play. Their CBs had so much more freedom because of this. You give inside leverage well you got Eddie Jackson coming over to pick it off, they get outside you got the boundary to make it a difficult catch. Add in Mack and the QB can’t afford to hesitate or keep the S at home. Seattle had something similar with the LOB but instead it was just Earl Thomas with a bunch of long athletic guys making traditional cover 3 beaters useless.

Right now we don’t have a great group of coverage guys. Ideally cover 2 would be great for us but we don’t have a LB that can take away that hole down the middle. As a result we see a ton of quarters coverages with some man coverages thrown in when we want to bring pressure or mix it up. There’s talent on the defense, just none of them compliment each other very well. I feel a ton of our problems are due to the lack of athleticism at ILB. Get a guy in there that can play cover 2 and Simmons will be worth every penny off his coverage alone. Or get a true single high safety and run cover 3 and let Simmons play robber and cloud where he can muck up reads.

So my question is does Denver pay him Top Safety Cash?

[Rich_C]

That narrative is there simply because he was an all pro last season. Simmons is very good, not elite IMO. Tackling is obviously a problem area for him because he’s a wrap and drag kind of tackler, and it’s probably why he’s never missed a snap. He’s not athletic enough to play centerfield which kind of hurts him in run support because you can’t just rely on Jackson being there to shore up the defense all the time.

But as a safety in a 2 high look, as far as coverage goes he’s one of the best. His jumping ability allows him to sink a little more than QBs are used and presents false openings. Another underrated part of his game is his man coverage, he’s not going to come down and take out slot WRs but he can lock up a TE for a good portion of the time. But again you can’t really ask Jackson to be a single high safety either so you don’t get to see that part of his game too much.

What was beautiful about Vic’s defense in Chicago was that both Amos and Jackson could interchange as a single high safety because both of them could start out on one hash and get to the opposite side of the field’s numbers and make a play. Their CBs had so much more freedom because of this. You give inside leverage well you got Eddie Jackson coming over to pick it off, they get outside you got the boundary to make it a difficult catch. Add in Mack and the QB can’t afford to hesitate or keep the S at home. Seattle had something similar with the LOB but instead it was just Earl Thomas with a bunch of long athletic guys making traditional cover 3 beaters useless.

Right now we don’t have a great group of coverage guys. Ideally cover 2 would be great for us but we don’t have a LB that can take away that hole down the middle. As a result we see a ton of quarters coverages with some man coverages thrown in when we want to bring pressure or mix it up. There’s talent on the defense, just none of them compliment each other very well. I feel a ton of our problems are due to the lack of athleticism at ILB. Get a guy in there that can play cover 2 and Simmons will be worth every penny off his coverage alone. Or get a true single high safety and run cover 3 and let Simmons play robber and cloud where he can muck up reads.

So you're saying he is not a great tackler (I agree) and the only way we can or should keep him is if we find an elite ILB, another Safety and likely a top tier CB. I just do not believe that we should be requiring such an overhaul to try and keep a Safety on our team if he is "that good". especially if he will want 13+ mil a year maybe even 15 mil.....

[qbronco]

So my question is does Denver pay him Top Safety Cash?

I would not and here is why. Fangio’s system is very DB friendly. I think they do a good job of scouting and signing DBs that work in his system. I think they could draft or sign a FA that could be just as effective as Simmons and save some cash to retain Harris. I like Simmons, but I do not think his play warrants top-three salary.

[beastlyskronk]

So you're saying he is not a great tackler (I agree) and the only way we can or should keep him is if we find an elite ILB, another Safety and likely a top tier CB. I just do not believe that we should be requiring such an overhaul to try and keep a Safety on our team if he is "that good". especially if he will want 13+ mil a year maybe even 15 mil.....

No, either or. A good athletic ILB would allow us to play Cover 2 and we’d probably see the best version of Simmons. Or we could get a single high safety (much easier said than done) and play a lot of Cover 3 and I think he’d be borderline if not elite in that role.

I guess what I’m getting at is, true center fielding safeties are extremely rare but when you have them they can make so many others around them look so much better. There may be 3 in the NFL right now that can play that role consistently and be great at it.

I don’t think it’s a knock on Simmons at all. There is a role in which he can be elite at. As far as paying him, I’d pay him and I think Elway will too as he generally drafts replacements a year or two in advance and we haven’t drafted a S in awhile. But there has to be an identity for the defense and right now that identity is bend but don’t break which I and I think most people hate. But that’s the identity because we have a mash up guys that don’t really compliment each other very well.

At some point we have to pick a guy to build our coverage schemes around so why not build them around a young player that has proven he can play at an all pro level? If we let him walk we have to draft a replacement and before you can build around that replacement you have to figure out what he can or can’t do which means another year or two of average to below average secondary play. Simmons is the only guy in the secondary we can really build around. Oj has his moments but you have to be able to be on an island to build around a CB and I don’t think he’ll ever be that good.

[beastlyskronk]

I would not and here is why. Fangio’s system is very DB friendly. I think they do a good job of scouting and signing DBs that work in his system. I think they could draft or sign a FA that could be just as effective as Simmons and save some cash to retain Harris. I like Simmons, but I do not think his play warrants top-three salary.

Fangio doesn’t really have a set system, he just kind of goes with what he has. The secondary hasn’t been great since he’s been here. The yardages may look ok but they’re not generating turnovers because we play so many soft coverages. It’s a ton of quarters looks with other concepts being mixed in but the one constant is how far our DBs line up off the ball. Any and every QB can just throw slants against us all day because most of the time our boundary CBs line up anywhere from 5-10 yards off the ball. That isn’t DB friendly at all IMO because they have to make up so much ground on shorter routes and can be manipulated much easier for deep shots. It also makes our edge rushers jobs that much harder because the QB can get the ball out so much quicker because the timing is rarely disrupted. And coincidentally it also helps boosts guys like Shelby Harris batted balls.

Honestly it feels like our secondary is built around our dline getting their hands up and knocking down passes.

[DiveInstructor]

He's good, but not worth top safety money. Trouble is that there are many positions to fill on that defense. They still need a great cover linebacker, and the secondary is full of holes. If they keep Miller, adding the cost of Simmons would wrap up a lot of cash in that defense, and it still won't be complete.

[johnlimburg]

He is a solid to good safety, but this All-Pro stuff I don't get. The theme you have highlighted has been a theme with him for years, and as you say, he is not a world beater. Justin Simmons is not going to be worth the contract he gets, I would let him walk and take the compensatory pick in exchange for him, and I would regard that as a win. The guy just isn't an impact player, and I think whoever signs him will be sorely disappointed from day 1, I just hope it isn't us.

[Rich_C]

No, either or. A good athletic ILB would allow us to play Cover 2 and we’d probably see the best version of Simmons. Or we could get a single high safety (much easier said than done) and play a lot of Cover 3 and I think he’d be borderline if not elite in that role.

I guess what I’m getting at is, true center fielding safeties are extremely rare but when you have them they can make so many others around them look so much better. There may be 3 in the NFL right now that can play that role consistently and be great at it.

I don’t think it’s a knock on Simmons at all. There is a role in which he can be elite at. As far as paying him, I’d pay him and I think Elway will too as he generally drafts replacements a year or two in advance and we haven’t drafted a S in awhile. But there has to be an identity for the defense and right now that identity is bend but don’t break which I and I think most people hate. But that’s the identity because we have a mash up guys that don’t really compliment each other very well.

At some point we have to pick a guy to build our coverage schemes around so why not build them around a young player that has proven he can play at an all pro level? If we let him walk we have to draft a replacement and before you can build around that replacement you have to figure out what he can or can’t do which means another year or two of average to below average secondary play. Simmons is the only guy in the secondary we can really build around. Oj has his moments but you have to be able to be on an island to build around a CB and I don’t think he’ll ever be that good.

I appreciate the time you took to respond. Interesting takes. I can obviously agree to a point BUT I am just not sure Simmons is 'that good'. I already know his ability to tackle and do so well is suspect. I will be watching how he goes up against the TE's vs the Raiders. Waller (sp?) is a speed size miss-match divisional opponent so I will be watching to see if he is put on him who wins. The one thing I do agree with you on 100% is we desperately need an ILB. IMO - that guy needs to replace Jewel as he has been a bigger liability and has not been as impactful when asked to bring pressure.

[Bad_Bubba]

The Broncos need to pay Simmons, He is one of the best safeties in the league. I expect Von Miller will not be back and you need to build your defense around Simmons. Elway knows that he will be vilified if he lets top players keep walking.

[johnlimburg]

What is Simmons great at ?