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  • beastlyskronk
    replied
    Originally posted by Spice 1 View Post

    It's possible. I feel like he's due though. He's starting to get up there in age, but he's not in that over the hill range, and I feel like this is his chance to finally get paid. I wonder if last year was more about teams being skeptical, but I think he's proven that he's not a fluke. I hope he does take a discount of sorts to stay with us, though.

    There are some safeties I do like in this draft though. Moehrig is the one who reminds me the most of Simmons, but one of these guys are bound to slip. Moehrig may wind up going in the 1st. If Andre Cisco slips into the third round, I don't know if he will, but I think that'd be great value. I was going to ask you in a different thread about Nasirildeen from FSU. I don't know if you've watched him yet, but you have a pretty good grasp on safety responsibilities in Fangio's defense. 1. Do you think Nasirildeen could play safety in Fangio's defense, and 2. Which role would he be better suited for?

    This is all assuming that we don't bring Simmons back or get rid of Jackson, which I believe is up in the air yet with the GM situation. I agree with you about Simmons, BTW. Everything you said about how he tackles and about him being a more sure tackler than people think. He takes very good angles both in defending the run, and with the ball in the air. His depth perception and ball skills are great. I just don't think he's worth a big long term deal, myself. He's definitely one of the better all around safeties in the league though. No doubt about that.
    I think this year’s safety class is a class of extremes. Holland is probably the safest bet in that he’s high floor low ceiling but his 40 time will be interesting, a lot of his highlights he’s actually behind the target which will be big completions in the NFL. There’s a bunch of boom or bust guys. Andre Cisco probably has the highest ceiling and lowest floor but he’s probably my choice if we’re going to develop a guy and he can probably give you some depth at CB. He desperately needs to work on his technique with tackling and his angles in run support and not getting fooled by savvy QBs. Other than that (a lot I know) he’s the only guy I really think could be a centerfield FS which is what I covet in a S. Ball skills are incredible as is his speed. Id have Moehrig right behind him at 2 but he has a much higher floor than Cisco. I’m not sure he’d be quite as good in a single high role but I think he’d be able to hold his own in that role. Nasirildeen looks a tad slow to me at times, I think he’s probably best fit as a box safety and could give you some snaps at LB or as a big nickel against TEs, but I think Isreal Mukuamu is a very similar player who has experience at CB and I generally want my Strong Safeties to play man coverage especially when you face TEs like Waller and Kelce twice a year but Mukuamu doesn’t look smooth planting and driving back to the ball and he’s already a bit lean and gets pushed around a bit especially when the WR is lower than him so he might be limited to a pure press cover 2 type of CB and not the big nickel S I generally like.

    I think we have to figure out what we’re doing at CB and ILB first though. Fangio called a lot of cover 4 match zones last season. It’s super conservative and doesn’t really allow for anyone to shine IMO. If we want to play Cover 2 we have to get an athletic ILB or 2 and another CB which is think we need regardless, Jackson, Simmons, and Parks would be fine at S. If we want to go Cover 3 it’s still much of the same but I think we’d have to replace either Jackson or Simmons, Cisco would be ideal in Cover 3 if he hits his ceiling but Moehrig would probably be ready much sooner. Although, and I’m probably the only one who thinks this, but I do like Simmons at CB in a cover 3 press bail style defense similar to the LoB with Sherman and Browner.

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  • Spice 1
    replied
    Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post

    I don’t think Harris commands that much. He didn’t get a good offer last year and he had more sacks. He’s definitely better than his numbers indicate though. We have a good bit of cap room already and can free up 25 more by moving on from Casey/Bouye.
    It's possible. I feel like he's due though. He's starting to get up there in age, but he's not in that over the hill range, and I feel like this is his chance to finally get paid. I wonder if last year was more about teams being skeptical, but I think he's proven that he's not a fluke. I hope he does take a discount of sorts to stay with us, though.

    There are some safeties I do like in this draft though. Moehrig is the one who reminds me the most of Simmons, but one of these guys are bound to slip. Moehrig may wind up going in the 1st. If Andre Cisco slips into the third round, I don't know if he will, but I think that'd be great value. I was going to ask you in a different thread about Nasirildeen from FSU. I don't know if you've watched him yet, but you have a pretty good grasp on safety responsibilities in Fangio's defense. 1. Do you think Nasirildeen could play safety in Fangio's defense, and 2. Which role would he be better suited for?

    This is all assuming that we don't bring Simmons back or get rid of Jackson, which I believe is up in the air yet with the GM situation. I agree with you about Simmons, BTW. Everything you said about how he tackles and about him being a more sure tackler than people think. He takes very good angles both in defending the run, and with the ball in the air. His depth perception and ball skills are great. I just don't think he's worth a big long term deal, myself. He's definitely one of the better all around safeties in the league though. No doubt about that.

    Leave a comment:


  • beastlyskronk
    replied
    Originally posted by Spice 1 View Post

    You don't think Moehrig or Holland can at least be as good as Simmons? I get the learning curve, but if we cut Jackson, we're going to have a hole at safety anyway. Or you saying pay Simmons, and keep Jackson? In which case, I guess we're letting Harris go? I'd have to look to see if that would be possible, but that's a lot of dough unless Harris takes a massive discount. I'm way out on paying a free agent.
    I don’t think Harris commands that much. He didn’t get a good offer last year and he had more sacks. He’s definitely better than his numbers indicate though. We have a good bit of cap room already and can free up 25 more by moving on from Casey/Bouye.

    Leave a comment:


  • Spice 1
    replied
    Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post

    He doesn’t really struggle at tackling any more than the majority of the safeties in the league. We only notice it because we watch him more than these other guys. The difference between him and Kareem Jackson was .1% or 1 missed tackle. Budda Baker was 2.2% lower but he missed 2 more tackles. Harrison smith 1.9% lower and missed 2 less tackles. Jamal Adams 1.3% lower and missed 2 less tackles while missing 4 games. Those are some of the top strong safeties who you’d expect to be better tacklers and they’re all posting similar rates.

    Now yes Simmons does tend to get drug for extra yardage probably more than most guys but they don’t track that stat. And actually of the past 3 seasons this was his worst in terms of missed tackles finishing at 11.1% whereas last season he was at 7.9% and 8.5% the season before. But if he’s making the tackle it’s usually a first down anyway because he’s rarely in the box. He did finish tied for 4th in the league in INTs with 5, tied for 2nd amongst safeties, Matthieu had 6.

    He actually had a big drop off in coverage this year allowing 7 TDs (an arbitrary stat for Safeties) which has not been the norm for him so I tend to think that has more to do with the revolving doors at CB all season. I think a big question for the staff in terms of resigning him will be how much was he trying to overcompensate for the lack of talent around him. Did he miss more tackles because he was trying to go for or set up for a strip? Did he allow more TDs because he was covering for a CB/ILB or trying to force a play?

    All in all, we have the cap space to meet whatever he demands. And after some bargaining that demand should end up being lower anyway. If not, who is his replacement? I don’t see a freak safety in this draft and there’s a steep learning curve at the position from college to the pros so a draft prospect is almost guaranteed to be a downgrade. Free agency? Marcus Williams likely hits the market, his missed tackle numbers are all over the place ranging from 4.3% this season to 14.1% last season. The constant with him is he gives up TDs with 15 the past 3 seasons (5,6,4) compared to Simmons (3,1,7). You can take a chance on Malik Hooker coming off injury. There’s Marcus Maye whom up until this past season hasn’t shown much in coverage. Anthony Harris didn’t live up to his franchise tag this season. I’m sure some other guys will be cut as well but I don’t think anyone can give us as much bang for our buck as Simmons does.

    An elite S is as hard to find as an elite QB in my eyes and they just don’t hit the market very often. The best bet is to try and keep Simmons on a shorter deal and draft a guy to groom behind him.
    You don't think Moehrig or Holland can at least be as good as Simmons? I get the learning curve, but if we cut Jackson, we're going to have a hole at safety anyway. Or you saying pay Simmons, and keep Jackson? In which case, I guess we're letting Harris go? I'd have to look to see if that would be possible, but that's a lot of dough unless Harris takes a massive discount. I'm way out on paying a free agent.

    Leave a comment:


  • beastlyskronk
    replied
    Originally posted by Rich_C View Post

    Sorry when you say Simmons made all-pro I am assuming you mean he made the pro bowl correct? The only all-pro this year was G.Bolles and he was on the 2nd team. I believe you missed what I said and are not fully understanding what it is I am typing. Simmons is well above average in pass pro. So as a result of that it is more than possible that he leads the team in solo tackles. That is because he will be placed on a WR (often) and will be asked to cover them. If they catch that ball and Simmons tackles them alone then he gets his solo tackle. I have long said that Simmons is above average in his pass protection. He has shown that over multiple years. Where we see Simmons struggle is in those open field or chase down situations. (Gif Below). The very same style play occurred again Vs the Raiders and similar plays vs Jets, Buf etc. etc.

    My point here is that a player can put up stats which are great. However, when put into the context of what the team needs are not a good fit.

    That gif actually isn’t really a bad play by Simmons. He has to attack the outside leverage of Renfrow to keep him from getting outside because all the pursuit players are inside. The only thing I’d say he did wrong on it was that he didn’t shorten his stride right before going for the tackle and it forced him to lunge off his outside foot vs his inside foot which was still moving. But the difference is 2 yards max. I’m sure he attacks him differently in that situation if there’s no backside pursuit.

    But yes he does tend to do that a lot when coming downhill. The Sam Darnold TD run is a prime example.

    Leave a comment:


  • beastlyskronk
    replied
    Originally posted by DENVERSB50CHAMP View Post
    Can Denver Franchise Him?
    They can, it’d be roughly 13.7 mil to do so

    Leave a comment:


  • DENVERSB50CHAMP
    replied
    Can Denver Franchise Him?

    Leave a comment:


  • beastlyskronk
    replied
    Originally posted by Rich_C View Post

    Sorry when you say Simmons made all-pro I am assuming you mean he made the pro bowl correct? The only all-pro this year was G.Bolles and he was on the 2nd team. I believe you missed what I said and are not fully understanding what it is I am typing. Simmons is well above average in pass pro. So as a result of that it is more than possible that he leads the team in solo tackles. That is because he will be placed on a WR (often) and will be asked to cover them. If they catch that ball and Simmons tackles them alone then he gets his solo tackle. I have long said that Simmons is above average in his pass protection. He has shown that over multiple years. Where we see Simmons struggle is in those open field or chase down situations.

    He doesn’t really struggle at tackling any more than the majority of the safeties in the league. We only notice it because we watch him more than these other guys. The difference between him and Kareem Jackson was .1% or 1 missed tackle. Budda Baker was 2.2% lower but he missed 2 more tackles. Harrison smith 1.9% lower and missed 2 less tackles. Jamal Adams 1.3% lower and missed 2 less tackles while missing 4 games. Those are some of the top strong safeties who you’d expect to be better tacklers and they’re all posting similar rates.

    Now yes Simmons does tend to get drug for extra yardage probably more than most guys but they don’t track that stat. And actually of the past 3 seasons this was his worst in terms of missed tackles finishing at 11.1% whereas last season he was at 7.9% and 8.5% the season before. But if he’s making the tackle it’s usually a first down anyway because he’s rarely in the box. He did finish tied for 4th in the league in INTs with 5, tied for 2nd amongst safeties, Matthieu had 6.

    He actually had a big drop off in coverage this year allowing 7 TDs (an arbitrary stat for Safeties) which has not been the norm for him so I tend to think that has more to do with the revolving doors at CB all season. I think a big question for the staff in terms of resigning him will be how much was he trying to overcompensate for the lack of talent around him. Did he miss more tackles because he was trying to go for or set up for a strip? Did he allow more TDs because he was covering for a CB/ILB or trying to force a play?

    All in all, we have the cap space to meet whatever he demands. And after some bargaining that demand should end up being lower anyway. If not, who is his replacement? I don’t see a freak safety in this draft and there’s a steep learning curve at the position from college to the pros so a draft prospect is almost guaranteed to be a downgrade. Free agency? Marcus Williams likely hits the market, his missed tackle numbers are all over the place ranging from 4.3% this season to 14.1% last season. The constant with him is he gives up TDs with 15 the past 3 seasons (5,6,4) compared to Simmons (3,1,7). You can take a chance on Malik Hooker coming off injury. There’s Marcus Maye whom up until this past season hasn’t shown much in coverage. Anthony Harris didn’t live up to his franchise tag this season. I’m sure some other guys will be cut as well but I don’t think anyone can give us as much bang for our buck as Simmons does.

    An elite S is as hard to find as an elite QB in my eyes and they just don’t hit the market very often. The best bet is to try and keep Simmons on a shorter deal and draft a guy to groom behind him.

    Leave a comment:


  • Rich_C
    replied
    Originally posted by DENVERSB50CHAMP View Post

    Do you know something that we do know? I am just curious as to weather you have any information as to if J.S. will or will not be back in Denver for the 2021 Season?
    his comment was based on how SImmons spoke in his presser. I do agree with his take. Simmons presser certainly did have a feel of "Denver I will always love ya but I'm out"

    Leave a comment:


  • Sam_Z
    replied
    Originally posted by Murph2432 View Post
    Sounds like Justin Simmons knows he won’t be a Bronco next year.

    “ Thank you, Broncos Country ❤️“
    I’d say good for both sides, he’s a good guy s d he’ll get paid but not by Denver.

    Denver don’t need to pay him what he’s going to ask because he’s not worth such a high price tag.

    is he reliable? Sure but so was Will Parks and he’s back now!

    Leave a comment:


  • Rich_C
    replied
    Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post

    Not even close? I’m curious to see what your list of top safeties looks like
    JMO - If you need to ask a question in order to justify if a player is close to a certain spot/ ranking in an attempt to justify paying them like they are - it is almost always a bad idea. For example look at the Cowboys. D.Lawrence was not the top DE/DL player in the NFL yet he was paid like it. That move has crippled the Cowboys. There are others as well. It is absolutely OK to pay a top player top of market money. They need to be both a key player on your team (preferably a leader) AND they need to actually be able to play at or preferably above their level of pay at their position. In our case the Broncos have already committed to Fangio for '21. He has a reputation for developing young DBs. Heck we had 5 (I think) CB's on IR by the end of this year. Yet there was really only 1-2 games where we got the brakes beaten off of us. I think Parks wants to stay here with us (keep a vet) and then go out and get 1-2 Safeties to replace Jackson & Simmons. Then we can look to use the money to bring in DL help. If our IDL can get to the passer and force coverages to shift inside then our OLBs can do better. Turns into a pick your poison. Rushed passes make inexperiences DBs look better.

    Leave a comment:


  • DENVERSB50CHAMP
    replied
    Originally posted by Murph2432 View Post
    Sounds like Justin Simmons knows he won’t be a Bronco next year.

    “ Thank you, Broncos Country ❤️“
    Do you know something that we do know? I am just curious as to weather you have any information as to if J.S. will or will not be back in Denver for the 2021 Season?

    Leave a comment:


  • Rich_C
    replied
    Originally posted by Bad_Bubba View Post

    That is your opinion but I disagree with you. Justin Simmons was one of the highest rated safeties the last two years in Fangio's defense. He made All Pro in Fangio's defense. I do not know how you can make the argument that he is not a fit in this defense. He leads the team in Solo tackles.
    Sorry when you say Simmons made all-pro I am assuming you mean he made the pro bowl correct? The only all-pro this year was G.Bolles and he was on the 2nd team. I believe you missed what I said and are not fully understanding what it is I am typing. Simmons is well above average in pass pro. So as a result of that it is more than possible that he leads the team in solo tackles. That is because he will be placed on a WR (often) and will be asked to cover them. If they catch that ball and Simmons tackles them alone then he gets his solo tackle. I have long said that Simmons is above average in his pass protection. He has shown that over multiple years. Where we see Simmons struggle is in those open field or chase down situations. (Gif Below). The very same style play occurred again Vs the Raiders and similar plays vs Jets, Buf etc. etc.

    My point here is that a player can put up stats which are great. However, when put into the context of what the team needs are not a good fit.

    Last edited by Rich_C; 01-11-2021, 12:11 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Murph2432
    replied
    Sounds like Justin Simmons knows he won’t be a Bronco next year.

    “ Thank you, Broncos Country ❤️“

    Leave a comment:


  • mozzerpete
    replied
    Originally posted by Gbt31 View Post

    I honestly have no idea, but as has been brought up in thread, we CAN afford him....but it probably isn't in our best interest financially. I think the best trade compensation scenario, most comparable to his position/age would be Darius Slay last year who went for a 3rd and 5th. I think there would be a team that would either go 3rd and 4th or a 2nd straight up. My dream scenario would be to trade him and our 9th and move up to secure Parsons or Sewell if possible...but it is still REALLY early.
    Either a second straight up or your Sewell scenario works for me.

    In round two, I'm hoping for CB Paulson Adebo.

    Leave a comment:

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